交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 26 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-26） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，鲍威尔释放降息信号， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 大宗商品受到支撑。国内高炉限产预期被阶段性证伪，铁矿需求影响不大， | | | | | 资金层面博弈加剧。产业层面，铁矿全球发运环比大幅回升，到港量环比 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉 | | | | | 铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。 | | | | | 8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期，但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本 | | | | | 面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：受福建大田煤矿事故影响，以及反内卷初见成效，煤焦夜盘大幅拉 | | | | | 涨。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 3 月以来 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏强 | 最低。与此同 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 22 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-22） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，到港量环比回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于 | | | | | 高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | | 煤焦 ...

1 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 21 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-21） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，港口库存小幅回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处 | | | | | 于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The short-term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities show different characteristics, with some facing supply and demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, market sentiment, and cost factors [2][4][6][8][10]. - The fiscal revenue has shown positive growth, and the central bank has increased support for disaster-stricken areas. The market sentiment for stock index futures is bullish, while the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, but there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. In late August, there are expectations of production cuts in northern regions, but the intensity is lower than expected. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure is weak, and coking coal is undergoing high-level adjustments. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines last week reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre-sales orders. In the short term, coal prices are still supported. Overall, the long-term coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong have positive factors on the supply side, and the short-term adjustment range is limited. To break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply is required [2]. - Rebar and Coil: The production restriction policy for Tangshan steel mills is clear, and the reduction is lower than expected. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, external demand exports have been overdrawn in advance, real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in total demand throughout the year, a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has declined, and steel mill inventories have accelerated to accumulate. The increase in social inventories has expanded. In mid-August, there are expectations of supply contraction due to military parade production restrictions, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not large. During the traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar is still weak, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts. In the short term, rebar futures will undergo significant adjustments to find support [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly. There is no water release or ignition of glass production lines, the operating rate is basically stable, weekly production remains unchanged month-on-month, and manufacturer inventories continue to accumulate. During the military parade, it is unlikely for glass factories in Shahe to stop production. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and there is room for restocking in the middle and lower reaches of the glass industry, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly. In the short term, the spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. - Soda Ash: The short-term spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index closed down 0.93%, the CSI 500 Index closed down 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.07%. Funds flowed into the soft drink and forestry sectors, while funds flowed out of the insurance and aerospace and defense sectors. In July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, the highest monthly growth rate this year. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and the growth rate turned positive. Since April, national tax revenues have shown a year-on-year growth trend, driving the continuous recovery of fiscal revenues. In July, tax revenues increased by 5%, reaching a new high this year, and the decline in tax revenues from January to July narrowed significantly by 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The People's Bank of China has increased the quota of re-lending for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. Market sentiment is bullish, and liquidity is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield to maturity of the 10-year China Bond has decreased by 1bp, FR007 has increased by 7bps, and SHIBOR3M has remained flat. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 19, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial, reflecting the demand for "decentralization" and risk aversion. In terms of currency attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the non-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in a global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policies have intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, non-farm payrolls show that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, non-farm employment is lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%. The PCE data in June shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and PCE rising by 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations. In July, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, the same as the previous month. In the short term, the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine may increase, which will suppress the risk aversion demand for gold. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reaches about 85%, and the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech this week, and it is expected that the gold price will remain in high-level oscillation [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - Pulp: The spot market price was stable on the previous trading day. The latest FOB price for softwood pulp remained at $720/ton, and for hardwood pulp at $500/ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high-priced pulp is low. Demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is at a critical point. It is expected that pulp prices will mainly consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, the willingness of processing plants to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume has remained relatively stable at over 60,000 cubic meters. In July, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and it is expected that the arrival volume in August will remain low. The expected arrival volume this week is 323,000 cubic meters, a month-on-month increase. The recent arrival of ships has decreased, and the supply pressure is not large. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters, approaching the critical threshold of 3 million cubic meters. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline. The spot market price is stable, with the price of 6-meter Class A logs in the Shandong spot market stable at 790 yuan/cubic meter and in the Jiangsu market at 800 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price in August is $116/cubic meter, a $2 increase from the previous month, and cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, the expected arrival of logs this week will increase month-on-month, the overall supply pressure is not large, and as the processing plants' willingness to stock up increases as September approaches, the average daily outbound volume remains at 63,000 cubic meters. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and it is expected that log prices will mainly range-bound [6]. - Oils and Fats: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued the trend of increasing production and inventory accumulation, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. Although the production increase was lower than expected, it was still at a relatively high level. Shipping agency data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil has been strong since August. Although the implementation time of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain, the demand growth still provides long-term support for palm oil prices. The import volume of soybeans to China in August remains high, oil mills have a high operating rate, and the export volume of soybean oil to India has increased, but it has not stopped the inventory accumulation trend of soybean oil in oil mills. Palm oil inventory may rebound, and rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory. The double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand will pick up. However, international crude oil futures have declined, and Chicago soybean oil futures have also fallen, dragging down the price of oils and fats. After a significant increase in the early stage, oils and fats may oscillate and correct in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Grains and Oilseeds: The USDA has significantly reduced the planted area of soybeans. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there is some rain in the central and western regions, but the temperature is high. The crop inspection data from ProFarmer shows that the number of pods per plant is higher than last year and the three-year average, and there are still expectations of a bumper harvest for US soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed, increasing the import cost, and the market is worried about a supply shortage. Before the export of US soybeans shows substantial improvement, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, the operating rhythm of oil mills is generally high, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level, with a very abundant supply. After the downstream has completed centralized restocking, the purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6]. - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs in China continues to decline. The average trading weight of live pigs has dropped to 124.03 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01%. The average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have fluctuated, but overall, they are still decreasing. The recent increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain of live pigs, and after the premium of fat pigs over standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs is relatively high. Slaughtering enterprises have increased their procurement of low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall procurement weight. As the breeding side may continue to adopt a weight reduction strategy and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of live pigs for key slaughtering enterprises in China last week was 14.17 yuan/kg. The settlement price has shown a downward trend. Affected by the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding side and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughtering enterprises have pressured prices for procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises is 33.25%, a month-on-month increase of 0.76 percentage points. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in China has shown an oscillating and fluctuating trend, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, due to the tight supply of large pigs in some regions, the price of fat pigs was supported, driving the price difference to widen. As the supply of large pigs in some regions increased and demand was flat, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, due to the increased enthusiasm of the breeding side for slaughtering, the concentrated release of standard pig supply led to a rapid decline in prices, causing the price difference to widen again. Against the background of a continuous increase in live pig supply and high temperatures continuing to restrict consumption demand, the weekly average price of live pigs in the next week may remain oscillating [8]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Natural Rubber: The impact of weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping work. The profit from rubber tapping in the Yunnan production area has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in the Hainan production area is currently good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expectations. Driven by the futures market, the procurement enthusiasm of local processing plants has increased, and the raw material purchase price has also increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas is restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in the Vietnam production area is good, and the raw material price has also shown an upward trend. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80 percentage points. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production reduction of individual factories, while the utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work of some maintenance enterprises and the moderate increase in production of enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of work of

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Strongly [1][5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating Weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Strongly [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term, oils and fats are likely to continue strong due to factors like increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil减产 season [1][5]. - The protein meal market may shift from a structure of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weak and far - term strong. The futures price is expected to strengthen gradually [6]. - Corn prices may face short - term uncertainty due to old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [7][8]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the industry [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to good macro sentiment and short - term fundamental support [13]. - Synthetic rubber prices may oscillate strongly in the short term as butadiene prices are likely to rise slightly [14]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and within the 5,600 - 5,900 yuan range in the short term [17]. - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate, with the main 11 - contract running in the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. - Log prices are expected to run within the 790 - 840 range, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, US soybeans and soybean oil rose due to technical buying. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend yesterday, with palm oil strong and soybean oil oscillating weakly [1][5]. - **Macro Environment**: The market has a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell [1][5]. - **Industrial Factors**: USDA's August report expects a record - high US soybean yield. US soybean exports face uncertainties due to Sino - US trade relations. US biodiesel demand for soybean oil is expected to increase, but this year's demand is down year - on - year. Palm oil is in the production season, with an expected high output in August. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, but imports from other regions may increase [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: US soybean good - quality rate is 68%. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has declined. CFTC's net short position in US soybeans has decreased. US soybeans are expected to oscillate around 1,050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The market recognizes near - term inventory pressure and far - term supply gaps. Some oil mills will conduct maintenance or reduce operating rates, and forward - purchase contracts are popular among downstream. The market should watch for Sino - US relations and hog industry impacts on demand [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Price Information**: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2,300 yuan/ton, and the domestic average corn price is 2,375 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually released, and demand is weak due to low profits in the livestock and deep - processing industries. Policy - related imports have a lower transaction rate. There may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, and new crop supply is expected to be abundant [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **Price Information**: On August 18, the price of Henan's live hogs (outer ternary) was 13.59 yuan/kg, and the futures closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term supply is increasing, and mid - term supply is expected to rise due to high sow capacity. Long - term supply may decrease due to anti - involution policies. Demand shows a stable pork - to - hog price ratio and an expanding premium for fat hogs. The industry has a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Price Information**: Qingdao Bonded Area's RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, and Thailand's raw material prices have declined [10][12]. - **Market Logic**: Rubber prices rose last Friday due to rumors of state reserves release and then adjusted. Seasonal factors and various rumors support price increases. Short - term supply may decrease, and demand is stable [13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Price Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has declined, and butadiene prices have shown a mixed trend [14]. - **Market Logic**: The BR futures followed the overall commodity market's decline. The market is influenced by natural rubber sentiment and butadiene supply shortages. Butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Cotton's 09 contract closed at 13,830 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 14,125 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Logic**: Positive factors include the extension of the suspension of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, a reduction in the US cotton output forecast, low domestic commercial inventories, and improved downstream demand. However, new - crop production is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the futures at 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Sugar's 09 contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 5,672 yuan/ton [17]. - **Market Logic**: The market has revised down the forecast of Brazil's sugar production in the new season, which has adjusted the global sugar surplus expectation. The domestic market has limited downside space but faces supply pressure from imports [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **Price Information**: Shandong's coniferous pulp prices have shown a mixed trend [18]. - **Market Logic**: The pulp market has both positive and negative factors. Broad - leaf pulp has short - term rebound momentum, but long - term supply and demand are still a concern. The futures are expected to oscillate within the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Logic**: The market is trading based on the product's fundamentals. Positive factors include increased cost - side valuation and improved port arrival pressure. Negative factors include weak demand, undigested warehouse receipts, and new warehouse receipt registrations. The market is expected to run within the 790 - 840 range [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil purchases and the call to postpone B50 limit the upside space for oils. However, in the long term, the supply - demand of the three major oils is expected to tighten, laying the foundation for the rise of oil prices. The price performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger than that in the third quarter [2][60]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, the support levels for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are 8400 - 8500, 9300 - 9400, and 9700 respectively. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and chasing highs should be done with caution. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of rapeseed oil 11 - 01 [3][61]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: Although palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, with the August inventory rising to 2.13 million tons but lower than market expectations, and the high - frequency data showing a decrease in production and an increase in exports in August, palm oil is expected to strengthen again after a small correction [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB July report shows that Malaysia's palm oil has strong supply and demand, but high domestic consumption leads to a lower - than - expected inventory increase. In August, export data improved, with a 16.5 - 21.3% increase in exports from August 1 - 15 compared to the previous month, and production growth slowed down, which is beneficial for price increases. However, seasonal inventory accumulation from September to October may disrupt prices [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The GAPKI May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports, with the inventory decreasing to 2.916 million tons. From June to July, production continued to decline, possibly due to the crackdown on illegal plantations. Domestic consumption and export demand are expected to remain strong, and the supply - demand is expected to maintain a long - term tight balance, driving up international palm oil prices. The main uncertainties come from lagging data and the risk of B50 postponement [8]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: In the short term, the supply is relatively abundant, with the inventory reaching 617,300 tons as of August 15. Recently, the import profit has improved, and traders are increasing purchases from August to November. In the long term, although the supply pressure from the origin is not large, the price may be affected by Malaysian seasonal inventory accumulation, Indian procurement demand fluctuations, and Indonesian biodiesel policies [13][17]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: The USDA August report was unexpectedly bullish, and the high - level of domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories, along with concerns about future soybean supply, lead to a short - term strong - side oscillation for soybean oil [18]. - **US Soybean Production**: The USDA August report increased the 25/26 US soybean yield but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres. The new - crop supply - demand has tightened, and there is a possibility of further tightening. If the yield drops to 52.5 bushels, the ending inventory will decline to a very low level of 200 million bushels [19]. - **US Soybean Demand**: In the biodiesel sector, the increase in demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is likely, but the increase may be lower than expected. In the export sector, as of August 18, there was no news of China's resumption of US soybean purchases, which may suppress US soybean prices [20]. - **South American Soybeans**: China continues to purchase a large amount of Brazilian soybeans. If China does not buy US soybeans, the cost of Brazilian soybeans will increase, and Argentina's soybean meal may be imported in large quantities in the fourth quarter [23]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to August, a large amount of South American soybeans entered China, leading to high inventories of domestic soybeans and soybean oil. In the short term, the supply is sufficient, but after October, if US soybeans cannot be imported, the supply will tighten, which is beneficial for soybean oil destocking [23]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Fluctuation**: The price of rapeseed oil has fluctuated significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed. After the initial sharp rise, it declined due to the risk warning from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and news of alternative imports [38]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: After August 14, the import of Canadian rapeseed will decrease significantly. Although there are plans to increase imports from other countries, they cannot fully make up for the supply shortage. The supply - demand of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, which is beneficial for price increases. However, policy adjustments and alternative imports may disrupt prices [40]. - **Impact on Canada**: China is the largest buyer of Canadian rapeseed. After the anti - dumping review, the export demand of Canadian rapeseed will face a significant decline, and the supply - demand will shift from slightly loose to significantly loose or even severely surplus, suppressing the price of Canadian rapeseed [50]. - **International Trade**: After the anti - dumping decision, China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed products will decrease, while its dependence on Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other countries will increase. Canada will increase its dependence on the US, UAE, and the EU [54].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile and bullish [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Volatile and bullish [6] - Soybean meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 2: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Livestock: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily falsified, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market correction due to expectation deviations. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. The coking coal and coke market is supported by supply-side factors, and it is recommended to buy on dips after corrections. The steel market is supported by macro and policy factors in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels. The glass market is affected by market sentiment and inventory digestion, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term. The stock index market is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The bond market is affected by interest rate changes, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position. The precious metal market is affected by factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical conflicts, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate. The log market is affected by seasonal factors and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. The edible oil market is supported by factors such as export demand and policy, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish. The meal market is affected by factors such as planting area and weather, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile. The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and price trends, and the price is expected to be volatile. The soft commodity market is affected by factors such as weather and inventory, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile [2][4][6][8][10][11]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had limited motivation to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in the northern region in late August, and the short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, with the market expected to be volatile at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure was weak, and coking coal prices adjusted slightly. The recovery of coal mines was slow, and coal inventories reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high operating rates, and coal prices were supported in the short term. To break through the previous high, continuous supply reduction is needed [2]. - Rebar: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply reduction. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand was overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and overall demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance. The profits of the five major steel products were acceptable, and production increased slightly while apparent demand decreased. Steel mill inventories increased rapidly, and social inventories increased. During the military parade in mid-August, there were expectations of supply contraction, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market was not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment cooled, and the midstream and downstream were in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with significantly weakened restocking demand. There were no changes in production lines, and the operating rate remained stable. Weekly production remained unchanged, and factory inventories continued to increase. It is unlikely for glass factories to stop production during the military parade, and the market is affected by many factors. The midstream and downstream inventories are low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - Soda ash: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth." After the short-term emotion is released and the market adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.70%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.16%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.02%. Funds flowed into the securities and power equipment sectors and out of the banking and soft drink equipment sectors. The article in Qiushi Magazine emphasized promoting the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy. In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, national fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12%. The market's bullish sentiment increased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rose 1bp, FR007 rose 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 238 billion yuan on August 15. The market interest rate rebounded, and the bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: In a high-interest-rate environment and the context of globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Trump's bill may exacerbate the US debt problem, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold. In the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold for bonds weakens, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds decreases. Geopolitical risks have weakened marginally, but market risk aversion still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. The latest US data shows that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, and inflation data has slowed down. In the short term, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [4][6]. - Silver: The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, affected by factors similar to those of gold [6]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest quoted prices for coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume at ports remained flat week-on-week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approached, the willingness of processing plants to stock up increased. The shipment volume from New Zealand to China in July increased by 5% month-on-month, and the expected arrivals in August were low. The expected arrivals last week decreased by 60% week-on-week, and supply pressure was not significant. Port inventories decreased, and spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The cost side provided stronger support, and the price is expected to be volatile [6]. Edible Oils and Meals - Edible oils: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued to increase production and inventory, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. The export volume from August 1 to 15 increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month-on-month, and the demand was strong. Indonesia's biodiesel policy provided long-term support for prices. In China, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in August remained high, and the oil mill operating rate was high. Although the export of domestic soybean oil to India increased, the inventory accumulation trend of oil mills could not be stopped. Palm oil inventories may increase, rapeseed oil inventories continued to decrease, and the demand is expected to pick up with the approaching of the double festivals. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce boosted rapeseed oil prices. Supported by factors such as soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and demand recovery, edible oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [6]. - Meals: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there are concerns about the hot and dry weather in some areas in the Midwest, which may affect yields. The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed imports increased import costs, and the market was worried about supply reduction. However, Brazil had a bumper soybean harvest, and the production outlook for US soybeans was strong. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly declined, but it is difficult to change the pattern before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, and the oil mill operating rate is generally high. Soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and downstream purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Livestock: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline. Due to factors such as high temperatures and the positive price difference between fat and standard pigs, slaughterhouses increased the purchase of low-priced standard pigs, and the overall purchase weight decreased. It is expected that the trading weight in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses last week showed a downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughter rhythm of farmers and high temperatures affecting terminal consumption, slaughterhouses pressured prices. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs fluctuated. In the context of increasing supply and restricted consumption demand, the weekly average price of pigs is expected to remain volatile [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The impact of weather on the main natural rubber production areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still slightly disrupt rubber tapping. In the Yunnan production area, the profit from rubber tapping increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials supported high purchase prices. In the Hainan production area, the weather was good, but the glue output was lower than expected. Driven by the futures market, local processing plants were more active in purchasing, and raw material purchase prices increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber continued to rise, but profits continued to narrow, and geopolitical conflicts restricted rubber tapping progress in some areas. In the Vietnamese production area, the weather was good, and raw material prices also rose. The utilization rate of the sample semi-steel tire enterprises in China decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of the sample all-steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The inventory at Qingdao Port decreased, and the market is still in a situation of oversupply, but the gap has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall increases in the production areas, the supply of raw materials is expected to be tight, driving up rubber prices. Domestic spot inventories are expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - PX: The expectation of easing the Russia-Ukraine situation continued to put pressure on oil prices, and oil prices declined. The PTA load fluctuated, and the polyester load rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the PXN spread was relatively strong. PX prices fluctuated with oil prices [10]. - PTA: Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and although the PXN spread was strong, cost support was average. PTA supply gradually recovered, and the load of downstream polyester factories began to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - MEG: Port inventories may have continued to increase slightly last week. Terminal demand was sluggish, domestic production gradually recovered, and imports fluctuated, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, MEG supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced state. In the short term, cost fluctuations are large, and low inventories support the futures price. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - PR: The supply of polyester bottle chips was stable, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking at low prices. The peak season performance was poor, and purchases were cautious. The market is expected to be weak with cost fluctuations [11]. - PF: The decline in oil prices dragged down polyester costs, and there was no significant positive support for the fundamentals of short fibers. Prices are expected to decline with raw materials [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [7] - Pulp: Consolidation [7] - Logs: Oscillation [7] - Edible oils: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Oilseeds and meals: Stronger oscillation [8] - Agricultural products: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soft commodities: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the expectations from the Politburo meeting were not met. The expected domestic supply policies have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections due to expectation deviations [2]. - The Fed's September rate cut expectations have been frustrated again. The US July PPI soared year-on-year to 3.3%, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered around real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, which are driven by "decentralization" and hedging needs [4]. - USDA significantly lowered the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market [8]. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace hot metal production decreased slightly. Steel mills' profitability was high, and they had little incentive to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in northern regions in late August. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. Real estate and infrastructure demand were weak, causing coking coal prices to decline slightly. Coal mine production recovery was slow, and the inventory of clean coal reached the lowest level since March 2024 last week. Downstream coke and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates. Some coal mines had full pre-sales orders, providing short-term support for coal prices. Supply-side factors are supporting the market, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. To break through the previous high, a continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply cuts. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand exports were overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and total demand was unlikely to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in annual total demand, a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half is expected. The profits of the five major steel products were decent, production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased, and steel mill inventories accelerated their accumulation last week. Social inventories increased at a faster pace. There are expectations of production restrictions during the military parade in mid-August, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term. With the arrival of the traditional peak season and environmental protection production restrictions in northern regions during the military parade for at least two weeks, finished steel products are supported by macro and policy factors in the short term. It is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: Glass prices were in a downward channel. New real estate relaxation policies were introduced, but they had little short-term impact on glass demand. There are expectations of glass factory shutdowns during the military parade, but it is unlikely due to high costs. The operating rate has remained stable recently. Market sentiment has been volatile. The inventory of glass downstream and midstream is low, providing room for restocking, but rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is unlikely to rebound significantly. The trading focus is on "anti-competition and stable growth." After the short-term sentiment is released and the futures price adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.08%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%. Funds flowed into the insurance and home appliance sectors and out of the aerospace and defense and communication equipment sectors. The Fed's September rate cut expectations were frustrated again. The implied volatility rebounded, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Chinese government bond rose 1bp, while FR007 and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan. Market interest rates rebounded, and the Treasury bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The US debt problem may worsen, weakening the US dollar's credit and highlighting gold's de-fiat currency attribute. Geopolitical risks have decreased marginally, but market hedging needs remain due to Trump's tariff policies. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The short-term factors that drove up the gold price have not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short-term fluctuations. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September remains above 90%, and the expectation of further monetary policy easing within the year has increased, supporting the gold price. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [4][7]. Light Industry - **Paper pulp**: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest FOB prices of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and only rigid demand purchases were made, which was bearish for pulp prices. The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [7]. - **Logs**: The average daily shipment volume at log ports last week was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of September and October approached, the willingness of processors to stock up increased. The average daily outbound volume remained at 64,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in July was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and arrivals in August are expected to remain low. The expected arrivals this week were 190,000 cubic meters, a 60% decrease from the previous week. The supply center has shifted downwards, and the supply pressure is not significant. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The spot market price was stable, and the cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is expected to remain stable. With the expected decrease in log arrivals this week, the supply pressure is generally not significant. Processors' willingness to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume remains at 64,000 cubic meters. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory continued to increase, but the end-of-period inventory of 2.1133 million tons was far lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. The production increase was lower than expected but still at a relatively high level. High-frequency data from shipping agencies showed that palm oil export demand has been strong since August, and the expectation of Indonesian biodiesel production at the end of the year is gradually fermenting. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August remains high, and oil mills' operating rates are high. The increase in soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the oversupply pressure. Palm oil inventory may increase, while rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. Double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand is recovering. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce has boosted rapeseed oil prices. With the support of soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and recovering demand, edible oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, after the previous sharp increase, attention should be paid to the risk of a correction. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [7]. - **Oilseeds and meals**: USDA significantly lowered the US soybean planting area, and production decreased by 1.08 million tons month-on-month, which is bullish for the market. The improvement in US soybean export demand expectations and concerns about the hot and dry weather in some agricultural areas in the US Midwest have boosted US soybean prices. Brazilian soybeans have high premiums due to concentrated demand, increasing the cost of imported soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, including a 75.8% deposit, have increased import costs and raised concerns about supply shortages. However, Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and the US soybean production outlook is strong, ensuring sufficient supply. The volume of imported soybeans to China in August is large, and oil mills' operating rates are high. Soybean meal inventory is at a high level and may continue to accumulate. With the addition of low-priced Argentine soybean meal, the supply is very abundant. Downstream buyers are worried about future supply disruptions or higher purchase prices, so they are purchasing in advance and restocking on a rolling basis, driving the trading volume of soybean meal by oil mills to a record high. The main trading volume is for forward basis contracts. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Focus on the weather in US soybean-growing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. - **Agricultural products (Pigs)**: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline, with a slight decrease of 0.19% to 124.04 kg. The average trading weights in different provinces varied, but the overall trend was downward. High temperatures have slowed down pig growth, and slaughterhouses have increased their purchases of low-priced standard pigs to ease the procurement pressure, leading to a decline in the overall procurement weight. It is expected that the average trading weight of pigs in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses across the country last week was 14.45 yuan/kg, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week. The price has been on a downward trend. Due to factors such as the accelerated slaughter of pigs by farmers and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughterhouses have pressured prices during procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses was 32.49%, a 0.31 percentage point increase from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has been oscillating, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the tight supply of large pigs in some areas supported the price of fat pigs, widening the price difference. As the supply of large pigs increased in some regions and demand was weak, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, the increased enthusiasm of farmers to slaughter pigs led to a concentrated release of standard pig supply, causing the price to drop rapidly and widening the price difference again. With the continuous increase in pig supply and the continued restriction of consumption demand by high temperatures, the average weekly price of pigs may decline in the coming week [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on natural rubber production areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping. The profit from rubber tapping in Yunnan has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in Hainan is good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and below expectations. Driven by the futures market, local processing factories have increased their procurement enthusiasm, driving up the raw material purchase price. In Thailand, the cup lump price has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas has been restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in Vietnam is good, and the raw material price has also increased. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a 0.27 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 9.93 percentage point decrease year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a 0.80 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 0.73 percentage point increase year-on-year. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production cuts of some factories, while the capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of production by some maintenance enterprises and moderate production increases by enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will provide support, but on the other hand, the maintenance plans of large-scale enterprises may lead to a slight decline in the overall utilization rate. For full-steel tires, as more enterprises resume production, the utilization rate will recover, but the overall increase may be limited due to the production recovery progress. The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with a decline in both bonded and general trade warehouse inventories. Due to the continuous low arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies, the overall warehousing rate has further declined compared to the previous period. The decline in the spot price of natural rubber has prompted downstream tire enterprises to replenish their stocks at low prices, significantly increasing the market procurement enthusiasm compared to the previous period and driving up the overall outbound volume at the port. The total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has decreased. The natural rubber market still has a pattern of oversupply, but the gap between supply and demand has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall in domestic and foreign main production areas increases in the next period, the expectation of a tight supply of raw materials will drive up rubber prices. The domestic spot inventory is expected to continue to decline. With the concentrated release of positive factors on the supply side and relatively stable demand, the natural rubber price is expected to maintain a relatively strong upward trend in the short term [10]. Chemicals - **PX**: Sanctions risks have supported oil prices, causing oil prices to rise. The PTA load has oscillated, and the polyester load has rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX have slightly weakened, but it is still in short supply in the short term. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and PX prices will fluctuate with oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see [10]. - **PTA**: Oil prices have fluctuated significantly. Although the PXN spread is strong, the cost support is average. PTA supply is slowly recovering, and the load of downstream polyester factories has started to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation of PTA. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased slightly last week, and future arrivals may be lower than expected. Terminal demand is weak, domestic production is slowly recovering, and imports are oscillating, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, the supply and demand of MEG are expected to be in a balanced state. Short-term cost fluctuations are large, and low inventory supports the MEG futures price. It is advisable to buy on dips [10]. - **PR**: Oil prices have risen, and the procurement of polyester bottle chips on the demand side has maintained low-price rigid replenishment, with cautious buying on rallies. It is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will fluctuate with polyester costs and show a relatively strong upward trend today [11]. - **PF**: The overnight increase in crude oil prices has provided some support, but the lack of positive factors in the supply and demand expectations of the industrial chain has limited the increase in short fiber prices. It is advisable to wait and see [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Metal Industry**: Iron ore - oscillate strongly; Coal and coke - oscillate upward; Rolled steel and rebar - oscillate at a high level; Glass - adjust; Soda ash - oscillate [2] - **Financial Industry**: CSI 50 - rebound; CSI 300 - oscillate; CSI 500 - oscillate; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year Treasury bond - oscillate; 5 - year Treasury bond - oscillate; 10 - year Treasury bond - weaken; Gold - oscillate at a high level; Silver - oscillate at a high level [3][4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - consolidate; Logs - oscillate [5][6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - oscillate upward; Palm oil - oscillate upward; Rapeseed oil - oscillate upward; Bean meal - oscillate strongly; Rapeseed meal - oscillate strongly; Bean No. 2 - oscillate strongly; Bean No. 1 - oscillate weakly [6][7] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs - oscillate weakly [7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - oscillate; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - oscillate; MEG - buy on dips; PR - wait - and - see; PF - wait - and - see [9][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and market trend analyses for various industries including black metal, financial, light industry, oil and fat, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It analyzes factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and geopolitical situations in each industry to guide investment decisions [2][3][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Metal Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, policy expectations are falsified, and supply is seasonally decreasing. Steel mills' production drive is strong, and iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Supply - side concerns lead to limited production capacity release, and supply - demand expectations support prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: There are supply reduction expectations due to production restrictions. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Glass**: Market speculation cools, and the industry is in an adjustment cycle with low downstream inventory and un - recovered demand [2] - **Soda ash**: The market is affected by sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: Market rebounds, risk preference recovers, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3][4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates rebound, and bond prices fall. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3][4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate at a high level. Silver is also expected to oscillate at a high level [3][4][6] Light Industry - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is small, and prices are expected to oscillate [6] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: Supply - demand fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to oscillate upward [6][7] - **Meals**: Supply is abundant globally, but there are short - term bullish factors, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Supply increases, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply - demand gap narrows, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term [9][10] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and costs, prices show different trends [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High - level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High - level oscillation [3] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidation [4] - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Palm oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Soybean meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Weak - side oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [6] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [8] - MEG: Wait - and - see [8] - PR: Wait - and - see [8] - PF: Wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the black industry, short - term steel industry growth expectations still exist. There are opportunities in the contract operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand. In the financial market, the market has rebounded continuously, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly and long positions in Treasury bonds lightly. For precious metals, the logic driving the gold price increase has not completely reversed, and short - term factors may cause fluctuations. In the agricultural and light industrial products markets, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. Supply increases slightly, and steel mills' production drive is strong. There are production - reduction expectations in the later period. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine over - production inspections tighten supply, and transportation is disrupted. The market is in a slightly tight supply - demand state, and prices are likely to rise [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Tangshan's independent steel - rolling enterprises' production restrictions are beneficial to finished products. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory may accumulate. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Glass**: The market's speculation sentiment cools down, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly. It is in the adjustment stage [2]. - **Soda ash**: In the adjustment stage, with the market's trading logic returning to the fundamentals [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and risk appetite has improved. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates have rebounded, and Treasury bond prices have fallen. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing. The logic of the gold price increase has not reversed. Short - term factors such as employment data and tariff policies affect the price. Pay attention to the latest CPI data [3][4]. Agricultural and Light Industrial Products Markets - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [4]. - **Logs**: Demand has increased slightly, supply pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Oils and fats**: Supported by raw material costs, external markets, and demand recovery, they are expected to oscillate upward. Pay attention to weather and production - sales conditions [4]. - **Meal products**: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and prices are under pressure. In the long term, there are some supporting factors. They are expected to oscillate strongly [6]. - **Live pigs**: Supply is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to decline slightly [6]. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap has narrowed. With the improvement of supply - side factors, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [6][8]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are in a state of wait - and - see, with their prices mainly affected by cost and supply - demand changes [8][12].