1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current agricultural product futures market maintains a structurally differentiated market. Oils, fats, sugar, and cotton show strong trends, while meal and pork are relatively weak, and corn and other varieties fluctuate within a range. Technical and driving force dimensions further verify the strong performance of cotton and sugar, the high position of oils, and the weakness of meal. It is recommended to hold long positions in oils, sugar, cotton, and soybean meal 09 contracts, and exit long positions in rapeseed meal 09 contracts [2]. - The overall strategy is a "long - trend strategy for agricultural products driven by energy", focusing on the trend opportunities of the three strong sectors of oils, sugar, and cotton [21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Global Market Logic**: The core logic of the global market is dominated by the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the hawkish policy expectations of major global central banks, forming a transmission chain of "rising oil prices → stagflation concerns → rising US dollar and US Treasury yields → pressure on US stocks and gold, rising VIX". Global asset prices fluctuate violently, with both safe - haven and stagflation trading [8]. - **Agricultural Product Futures Market Logic**: The recent operation logic of the agricultural product futures market mainly revolves around the Middle East geopolitical conflict pushing up crude oil and energy premiums, the positive expectations of the US biodiesel policy, supply disturbances of South American soybeans, and the increase in the operating rate of domestic oil mills, forming a pattern of strong oils and weak meal. Domestic corn fluctuates due to the reduction of remaining grain and support from feed demand. Pigs are in the cycle bottom - grinding stage of high supply, off - season consumption, and deep losses. Cotton strengthens due to the expected tight global supply - demand balance and continued peak - season demand, and sugar fluctuates strongly driven by Brazil's ethanol blending preference and rising energy costs [8]. 3.2 Agricultural Product Futures Supply - Demand Pattern - **Structural Differentiation**: The current agricultural product futures market shows obvious structural differentiation, with no overall unilateral market. Most varieties are in a neutral range, and only cotton and sugar show a bullish trend. Soybean meal and pork are relatively bearish, while soybeans, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, eggs, and peanuts have no clear unilateral drivers and their prices will fluctuate within a range [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis of Each Variety**: The report provides a supply - demand pattern table for each variety, including factors such as supply, demand, inventory, import, external market, weather/policy, and gives a comprehensive judgment and strength score [15]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Futures Strategy Signals - **Strength - Weakness Differentiation**: As of March 27, 2026, the agricultural product futures market shows obvious strength - weakness differentiation. Oils are generally in a high - level range, meal and peanuts are weak, and cotton, sugar, and eggs show strong signals. Eggs are in a significant upward trend, cotton and sugar have resonance between basis and futures prices with sufficient upward momentum. Rapeseed meal shows a downward trend, and peanuts have low futures prices and volatility. Soybean meal shows a weak near - month contract and a neutral far - month contract. The futures prices of oils are generally in the high - level range of 77% - 94% and fluctuate within a range recently. Pigs are weak but at a low price, and signals of bottom - stabilization on the disk need to be noted [18]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - **Long - Position Holding**: Hold long positions in oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil 09 contracts), sugar 09 contracts, cotton 09 contracts, and soybean meal M09 contracts, and exit long positions in rapeseed meal RM09 contracts. The core logic is that the Middle East geopolitical conflict pushes up crude oil to a high level, and the US biodiesel policy is implemented, combined with the industrial fundamentals of each variety [21]. 3.5 Driving Force Schematic Diagram - **Quadrant Differentiation**: The current agricultural product futures show an obvious quadrant differentiation pattern. Soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, sugar, and eggs have upward driving forces with resonance between supply - demand and valuation, which are the directions for long - position allocation. Cotton, rapeseed meal, and corn starch have strong support on the valuation side but lack clear bullish factors on the supply - demand side, and their prices are mainly driven by valuation repair. Palm oil is deeply pressured on the valuation side, and pigs and peanuts are in the double - bottom range of supply - demand and valuation, with overall price pressure, mainly for waiting and seeing or short - selling on rallies. Corn is in a neutral range in both supply - demand and valuation, and its price will fluctuate within a range [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current agricultural product futures market is dominated by macro - driving, with strengthened cost support. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict persists, keeping crude oil prices high. Combined with the expected US biodiesel policy and the contraction of cotton and sugar supply, these factors have replaced traditional industrial supply - demand as the core of pricing, presenting a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern. Cotton and sugar are driven by both supply - demand and valuation, oil and meal still have effective cost support, the supply - demand of pigs is loose with continuously weak prices, and corn is in a neutral oscillation [2]. - It is recommended to focus on long positions in oil - meal, sugar, and cotton 09 contracts in the near future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Market Characteristics**: Last week, agricultural product futures were still dominated by macro - driving, with strong - weak differentiation among varieties and intensified overall fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up crude oil and agricultural material costs, and the expected implementation of the US biodiesel policy became the core anchor for agricultural product prices [9]. - **Performance of Different Varieties**: Cotton and sugar benefited from the expected global supply contraction and the strengthening of the external market, with clear long - term directions. The oil - and - oilseed sector was generally strong due to crude oil premium and biodiesel demand. Meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was more elastic due to short - term tight arrival expectations, high basis, and increased fluctuations in US soybeans. Soybean oil and palm oil were at historical highs with convergent oscillations. Pigs were continuously weak due to weak supply - demand and the off - season of consumption. Corn maintained a neutral oscillation under the marginal influence of inventory and policies [9]. 3.2 Agricultural Product Futures Supply - Demand Pattern - **Overall Situation**: As of March 20, most agricultural products' supply - demand patterns were neutral. Only cotton and sugar were bullish, while pigs were bearish. For other varieties such as meal, oil, corn, eggs, and peanuts, the long - and short - term factors offset each other, with no clear trend [15]. - **Specific Varieties**: Cotton benefited from supply - side support, sugar was driven by the strengthening of the external market, and pigs were under pressure due to weak supply - demand [15]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Futures Strategy Signals - **Analysis of Different Varieties**: Recently, cotton and sugar showed strong bullish characteristics. Cotton had a high basis, and sugar was at a low price with a safety margin for long positions. Most varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, corn, and eggs were in a neutral oscillation range. Palm oil, pigs, and peanuts were judged as weak varieties [19]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to prioritize the layout of strong bullish varieties such as cotton and sugar, and be vigilant about the retracement risk of high - volatility varieties and the impact of basis changes [19]. 3.4 Current Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy for Different Varieties**: Hold long positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts as crude oil prices remain high, the US biodiesel policy is expected to be implemented, and the cost of imported soybeans is rising. Hold long positions in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts due to the continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflict, high crude oil prices, and the expected implementation of the US biodiesel policy. Hold long positions in sugar 09 contracts as high crude oil prices lead Brazilian sugar mills to reduce the sugar - making ratio and increase ethanol production, combined with the reduction of Indian production and the narrowing of the global surplus expectation, as well as domestic cost support and restocking demand. Hold long positions in cotton 09 contracts as policy - driven production cuts set the tone for a tight - balance in the new year, crude oil pushes up costs and substitution cost - effectiveness, and downstream restocking demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, with strong expectations offsetting the high - inventory reality and a medium - to - long - term shift to a tight - balance [21][22]. 3.5 Driving Force Schematic - **Core Bullish Allocations**: As of March 20, cotton, sugar, and soybean meal were the core bullish allocation directions. Corn, pigs, etc. should be on the sidelines or try short positions on rallies. Most oil and meal varieties were in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply - demand and valuation [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and its downstream products are closely related to the production, processing, transportation, and consumption of most agricultural products. Fluctuations in crude oil prices can impact the cost and supply - demand balance of agricultural products, thereby affecting their prices. The prices of crude oil and most agricultural product futures are strongly correlated. [3][8] - If crude oil prices remain strong in the near future, products such as oils, sugar, and cotton are likely to continue to perform strongly. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade later, products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and corn may face greater downward pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Overview of the Correlation between Crude Oil and Agricultural Product Futures - Crude oil has a strong correlation with the prices of agricultural products that can provide bioenergy, such as oils, soybeans, soybean and rapeseed meal, corn, cotton, and wheat. Due to differences in domestic and international market environments, the correlation between crude oil and Zhengzhou sugar is lower than that of raw sugar. Crude oil has a certain correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, and little correlation with apples and pigs. [8] - Based on the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil prices and the closing prices of domestic and international agricultural product futures, crude oil has the strongest correlation with domestic three major oils, soybeans (No. 2), soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and overseas products like US soybeans, US soybean oil, US corn, US cotton, US wheat, and Malaysian palm oil, with correlation coefficients generally reaching 0.7. It has a relatively strong correlation with domestic soybeans (No. 1), corn, corn starch, cotton, and overseas US soybean meal and No. 11 sugar, with correlation coefficients between 0.5 and 0.7. The correlation coefficients between crude oil and the prices of eggs and peanuts are 0.44 and 0.35 respectively, and those with apples and pigs are 0.1 and 0.08 respectively. [9] 2. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Oil and Oilseed Market - In the agricultural product futures market, the oil and oilseed sector has the strongest correlation with crude oil prices. The transmission medium is biodiesel. When crude oil prices rise or are high, the production and sales of biodiesel are expected to increase, leading to increased demand for vegetable oils and tighter supply - demand balance, thus enhancing the upward momentum of oil prices. When crude oil prices fall or are low, the opposite occurs. The BOHO and POGO indicators are used to judge the price advantage of biodiesel. The production and sales of biodiesel are also greatly affected by government policies. [11] - In 2024, the total biodiesel production of major producing and consuming countries was about 48.3 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Biodiesel consumption of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil accounted for 18.9%, 19.78%, and 25% of their respective global production, and the total consumption of the three vegetable oils by biodiesel accounted for 20% of their total production. [14] - Soybeans and soybean meal, as raw materials and related products of soybean oil, also have a strong correlation with crude oil prices. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of domestic soybean meal may face a greater decline. Oils are likely to follow crude oil and perform strongly before the trend of crude oil prices reverses. [15] 3. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Cotton Market - Crude oil affects the cotton market through substitution effects, production cost transmission, and macro - sentiment. The medium is chemical fiber. The correlation coefficients between crude oil prices and PTA, MEG, and PF prices are 0.64, 0.38, and 0.81 respectively. Chemical fiber and cotton are strong substitutes. When crude oil prices are low, the cost of chemical fiber is low, and its substitution for cotton increases, putting downward pressure on cotton prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices are high. [22] - Since 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating strongly, driven by the expected tightening of global cotton supply - demand, the expected decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the arrival of the traditional peak season, and the rise in crude oil prices. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will continue to benefit cotton prices. If the positive factors fade, Zhengzhou cotton may be more resilient. [24] 4. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Sugar Market - The medium connecting crude oil and the sugar market is sugar - based ethanol. When crude oil prices are low, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, and sugar production will increase, leading to a looser sugar supply and downward pressure on sugar prices. When crude oil prices are high, the opposite occurs. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and No. 11 sugar prices is 0.52, indicating a strong correlation. [30] - Due to the mainly edible use of domestic sugar and the relatively low proportion of imported sugar, the correlation between Zhengzhou sugar and crude oil prices is low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.25. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will benefit sugar prices. If the positive factors fade, the impact on Zhengzhou sugar may be limited. [33][35] 5. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Corn Market - Crude oil price changes have a great impact on the supply - demand balance of the corn market. When crude oil prices fall, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, reducing corn demand and putting downward pressure on corn prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices rise. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and CBOT corn prices is 0.75, and that between WTI crude oil and domestic corn prices is 0.65. The correlation coefficient between domestic and US corn prices is 0.84. [37][39] - If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of corn may face downward pressure due to factors such as phased grain sales pressure, policy - based grain supply, and wheat substitution pressure. [39] 6. Correlation between Crude Oil and Other Agricultural Product Markets - Crude oil has a certain positive correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, with correlation coefficients of 0.44 and 0.35 respectively. The correlation with eggs is mainly due to transportation costs and macro - sentiment. The correlation with peanuts is due to the impact of crude oil on oils and transportation costs. [43][46] - Apples and pigs are self - produced and self - sold products, with little correlation with crude oil prices, and their correlation coefficients are 0.11 and 0.08 respectively. [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: High - level Volatility [5] - Silver: High - level Volatility [5] - Logs: Volatile [5] - Pulp: Volatile [6] - Offset Paper: Stable and Volatile [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.1: Volatile [6] - Live Pigs: Weakening [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wide - range Volatility [10] - PTA: Wide - range Volatility [10] - MEG: Low - level Volatility [10] - PR: On - hold [10] - PF: On - hold [10] Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, with multiple long and short factors in supply and demand competing, and prices are expected to move within a range. Uncertainties in the coal - coke market in January are high, and attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream stocking rhythm. The steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies. The glass market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained [2]. - The stock index futures and options market has a positive start in the new year, and the recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend. The bond market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend [3]. - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. The Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide strong medium - and long - term support for gold prices. The log market has stable supply, weak demand, and falling costs, and prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The pulp market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, and prices may maintain a volatile trend. The double - offset paper market has weak fundamental driving forces, and prices are expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. The oil and fat market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to South American weather, auction policies, soybean arrival rhythms, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs may decline, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday. The rubber market has characteristics of marginal supply relief, consumption entering the traditional off - season, and high inventory, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PX and PTA markets are wide - range volatile, and the MEG market is low - level volatile. The PR market is expected to adjust strongly and volatile, and the PF market is expected to be strongly volatile [10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: During the New Year's Day holiday, Singapore iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. In the first quarter, the main production areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather - sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. Steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and the current hot - metal output is close to the phased bottom. Steel mills' imported ore inventories are at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the rigid demand for winter storage replenishment is gradually increasing, providing short - term support for steel prices. However, domestic port inventories are continuously at a high level, and the upward range of iron ore prices is under pressure [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before and after New Year's Day, the spot price of the coke market declined under pressure, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. The average profit of coking plants further declined. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are loose, and the overall operating load of coking plants is stable. Some steel - mill coking plants have inventory accumulation and mainly focus on active shipments. After the fourth round of price cuts, the procurement enthusiasm of some steel mills has increased, and the output of five major steel products has increased. There is an expectation of hot - metal复产 in January, and the fundamentals of coke are expected to improve. However, under the dual suppression of the consumption off - season and environmental protection restrictions, steel mills' procurement is expected to be cautious. In January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: During the New Year's Day holiday, market activity decreased. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.36 tons to 815.18 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.41 tons to 841.02 tons, and rebar was the only variety with a decline in apparent demand. The inventory of five major steel products continued to decline by 25.84 tons to 1232.15 tons, reaching the lowest level since the Spring Festival in 2025. Traders' willingness to take goods is weak, and they may continue low - inventory operations. Attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies, and the current steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2]. - **Glass**: During the holiday, the sentiment in the spot market remained weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. There is a possibility of further price cuts in the future. At the end of the year, there will be cold - repair implementation. The market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained. The demand for float - glass is continuously weak, and the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand outlook. The overall glass demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [2][3]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.90%, the SSE 50 index rose by 2.26%, the CSI 500 index rose by 2.49%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 2.09%. The insurance and healthcare sectors had net capital inflows, while the oil and gas and shipping sectors had net capital outflows. The market had a positive start in the new year, and the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points. The recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China bond rose by 2bps, FR007 rose by 4bps, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan. The central bank's liquidity injection in December 2025 showed net injections through various channels. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds rebounded slightly, and the market trend was in a narrow - range consolidation [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has led to cracks in the monetary credit of the US dollar, and the de - fiat - currency attribute of gold is prominent in the process of de - dollarization. In the global high - interest - rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero - coupon bond for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US bonds is reduced. Geopolitical risks persist, and market risk - aversion demand remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors [5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is in a high - level volatile state. Short - term factors such as the US raid on Venezuela have increased geopolitical risks and risk - aversion sentiment, and the unexpected decline in the latest US PMI has strengthened the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cuts. The market currently expects two interest - rate cuts next year [5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the daily average shipment volume of logs at ports was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 4900 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume decreased to less than 60,000 cubic meters due to the impact of Shandong. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in November was 1.452 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3% compared with the previous month. In November, China's coniferous log imports were 2.2295 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.86% compared with the previous month and 2.58% compared with the same period last year. The expected arrival volume last week was 510,000 cubic meters, a increase of 66.8% compared with the previous week. As of last week, the log port inventory was 2.54 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The spot market price was relatively stable. The delivery participation willingness in the industry was low in November, and there are currently 200 registered warrants. The supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost decline is a drag, so the log price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price was relatively stable in the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was adjusted by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some broad - leaf pulp in Guangdong increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 700 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broad - leaf pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 570 US dollars/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is not high. The demand is not good, and currently, paper mills purchase raw materials on a just - in - time basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The supply side is relatively stable this week, and there is still supply pressure. The publication orders are being picked up, which supports the market on the demand side, but the social - order demand is weak. The fundamental driving force is not strong, and the price is expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. There is a possibility of significant price fluctuations due to liquidity issues [6]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the export volume in December decreased by 5.2% - 5.8% compared with the previous month. The key variable that can boost the oil price, the biodiesel policy, is still full of uncertainties. The EPA will not finally determine the 2026 biofuel blending policy until the first quarter, and the Indonesian B50 plan is difficult to implement at least in the first half of the year. The export of US soybeans is weak, and the demand prospect is uncertain. A large amount of soybeans are continuously arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, the oil inventory has declined but the supply is still abundant, the post - holiday consumption boost is limited, the catering consumption recovery is weak, and the terminal procurement willingness is average. The oil market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The global soybean ending inventory is 122.4 million tons, which is relatively loose. Currently, the weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought problems, and there are still many uncertainties in subsequent growth. The northern region of Brazil has started the harvesting work, indicating that the new - season soybeans are approaching the global market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and it has no export advantage to China. Coupled with the uncertainty of US biodiesel, the market has uncertainties about the demand scale of US soybeans. The weak operation of US soybeans and Argentina's reduction of the export tariff to 25% have led to a decline in the long - term soybean import cost. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is expected to decline but remain at a high level, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, the high breeding inventory supports consumption, but the breeding efficiency is not good, and procurement is cautious, mostly on a just - in - time basis. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and after New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on South American weather, auction policy implementation, soybean arrival rhythm, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - **Soybean No.2**: Brazilian new soybeans will start to be listed in January, and the global supply is expected to turn to a loose situation. The slow sales of US soybeans to China due to market concerns about US soybean exports are still the focus of the market. Coupled with the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans are weak. Affected by a large amount of imports and state - reserve sales, the domestic soybean market shows a pattern of high inventory and high crushing volume, with loose supply. Downstream oil mills have sufficient raw - material inventory and weak demand, and the soybean No.2 market is expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to uncertainties such as the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade progress [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The national average trading weight of live pigs is 124.54 kg, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous period. In some northern provinces, due to the impact of previous pig diseases, some pigs were slaughtered in advance, and farmers' bearish outlook on the future market led to accelerated slaughter. The recent cooling and holiday consumption have accelerated the digestion speed, and the average slaughter weight in local areas has decreased. In some southwestern regions, due to the peak of cured - meat consumption, large - weight live pigs were slaughtered intensively, driving up the average slaughter weight. The inventory of large pigs in the next period will decrease, and the national average trading weight of live pigs may decline. The average settlement price of key national slaughtering enterprises is 12.12 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase compared with the previous period. The decrease in southern temperatures has increased the demand for cured meat, and some northern slaughtering enterprises have high enthusiasm for purchasing pigs, jointly supporting the increase in the settlement price. The weekly average operating rate of key domestic live - pig slaughtering enterprises has reached 44.29%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points. The snowfall and temperature decrease in the northern region have driven up the terminal pork consumption, and the increase in slaughtering - enterprise orders has driven up the operating rate. The average self - breeding and self - raising profit of live pigs is - 190.92 yuan/head, and the average profit of fattening piglets is - 184.18 yuan/head. The low temperature in most areas, the increase in cured - meat demand in the southwestern region in the early stage, and the increase in pork consumption have driven up the slaughtering operating rate. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday has supported the increase in pig prices, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the closed - cutting state. The main natural - rubber - producing area in Hainan is in the seasonal shutdown state, with a small amount of output in some western areas. The low enthusiasm for raw - material procurement has led to a low purchase price. The climate conditions in the Thai - producing area are stable, and the new - rubber output maintains a normal level. The northeastern Thai - producing area is expected to gradually stop cutting at the beginning of the year, and the supply side will narrow in the short term, with the raw - rubber price remaining strong. As of late December, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 63.6%. According to CAAM data, the domestic sales volume of new - energy vehicles in November was 1.522 million, a 4.3% increase compared with the previous month and a 6.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [4] - Logs: Volatile [4] - Pulp: Volatile [4] - Offset paper: Stable and volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Weak [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wide-range volatility [9] - PTA: Wide-range volatility [9] - MEG: Low-level volatility [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The short-term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, and the supply and demand factors are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult to form a large unilateral market. The overall operation is expected to be volatile within a range [2] - After the New Year's Day holiday, the stock market is expected to be led by the technology sector, especially the semiconductor materials and information technology service concepts. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - The logic driving the current round of gold price increase has not reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price [4] - The spot market price of logs is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - The fundamentals of the pulp market show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile. Attention should be paid to the weather in the South American soybean-producing areas and the risks of production and sales changes in Malaysian palm oil [6] - The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. After New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on the weather in South America, the implementation of auction policies, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and the efficiency of Spring Festival logistics [6] - The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. After the New Year's Day holiday, the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly [7] - The natural rubber market is characterized by marginal relief of supply, entry into the traditional consumption off-season, and high inventory. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] - The short-term price of PX should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: In the first quarter, the main producing areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather-sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. The steel mills' winter storage replenishment demand is gradually increasing, providing short-term support for steel prices. However, the high domestic port inventory suppresses the upward range of iron ore prices. The short-term operation is expected to be volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the four rounds of price cuts for coke are implemented, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the steel mills' procurement is still expected to be cautious. In January, there is an expectation of an increase in coking coal supply, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream year-end stocking rhythm [2] - Rebar: During the New Year's Day holiday, the market activity decreased. The output of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, and the traders' willingness to take goods was weak. The steel price is estimated to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: The spot market sentiment during the holiday was still weak, the spot price declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. There is an expectation of cold repair at the end of the year. The market is expected to first verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and then verify whether the demand can be maintained. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and the cold repair of production lines [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: After the New Year's Day holiday, the market is expected to be led by the technology sector. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is flat, and the market trend rebounds slightly. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the one-day net withdrawal of funds is 4336 billion yuan [3] Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price. In the short term, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts are positive for the gold price, while the position adjustment pressure at the beginning of the year and the reduction of the leverage ratio by the world's largest exchange suppress the gold price [4] - Silver: The short-term trend is similar to that of gold, with high-level volatility [4] Light Industry - Logs: The spot market price is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices is increasing, but the demand is not good, and the fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand. The price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - Offset paper: The supply side is relatively stable this week, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has support for the market, but the social orders are average. The large paper mills have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the positive sentiment may continue, but the fundamental driving support is not strong. The short-term price is expected to be stable and volatile [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils and fats: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The biofuel blending policy is still uncertain. The demand outlook for US soybeans is uncertain, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is still abundant. The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile [6] - Meals: The global soybean ending inventory is relatively loose. The weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought. The new-season soybeans are approaching the market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and the demand scale is uncertain. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is cautious. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday boosts the pig price, but after the holiday, the weekly average price may decline slightly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply side of natural rubber is narrowing in the short term, and the raw material rubber price is relatively strong. The demand side is supported insufficiently, and the inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] Polyester - PX: The supply of PX is generally loose, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The short-term price should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - PTA: The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - MEG: The load of domestic MEG is slowly recovering, the overseas supply is being squeezed out, and the port inventory is high and continues to accumulate. After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - PR: The short-term supply increases slightly, the downstream maintains rigid demand replenishment, and the supply and demand stalemate pattern continues. The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - PF: The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Rebounding [8] - Palm oil: Rebounding [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebounding [8] - Soybean meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 1: Weakly oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating [10] - Rubber: Oscillating [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Widely oscillating [12] - MEG: Oscillating at a low level [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features a loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories in 2026, with new global mine production increasing by 64 - 65 million tons, outpacing the growth of crude steel production. Real - demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a definite negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds offer opportunities to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke are supported by capacity inspections, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license system shifts market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives, impacting raw material demand and prices [2]. - The sentiment in the rebar market is boosted by policies emphasizing domestic demand, and the black sector has rebounded. The steel export license system requires a downward adjustment of steel export expectations for next year, and the impact of potential crude steel production control policies should be noted [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand imbalance. Although there is a cold - repair expectation for some production lines before the Spring Festival, supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate completion [2]. - In the financial market, the central bank's monetary policy meeting emphasizes the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies. The new version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" guides more foreign investment. The power consumption data shows growth, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple factors such as the US debt issue, geopolitical risks, and increased Chinese physical gold demand support the upward trend of gold prices, despite short - term fluctuations [6]. - Logs have a supply - demand pattern of weakening supply pressure and relatively weak demand, with prices expected to oscillate. Pulp has a loose supply - demand situation, and prices may remain oscillating. Offset paper prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term [6][8]. - In the oil and oilseed market, the demand for oils is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by the strengthening of crude oil. The soybean market has a relatively loose supply, and prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a complex relationship between supply and demand. The average trading weight may decline, and the average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in major producing areas and a demand - side support that is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to oscillate. The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX and PTA having wide - range oscillations, MEG having low - level oscillations, and PR and PF being on the sidelines [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mine production will increase significantly, with real demand weakening due to factors like falling hot - metal production and high plate inventories. The steel export license system is a negative for raw materials, and short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Supported by capacity inspections and anti - involution policies, but the steel export license system changes market expectations, affecting raw material demand and prices [2]. - Rebar: Policy boosts market sentiment, and the black sector rebounds. The steel export license system requires adjusting export expectations, and the impact of crude steel production control policies should be watched [2]. - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance persists, with cold - repair expectations not fully met, and demand weakening due to the real - estate situation [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices show different trends, and the market is affected by central bank policies and industry - specific capital flows [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a short - term net cash withdrawal by the central bank [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors support the upward trend, with short - term fluctuations affected by interest - rate policies and geopolitical risks [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias, affected by macro - economic data and geopolitical factors [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is relatively weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][8]. - Pulp: Supply - demand is loose, and prices may remain oscillating [8]. - Offset paper: Prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term, with potential large - scale price fluctuations [8]. Oil and Oilseeds - Oils: Demand is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by crude oil. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [8]. - Meal and soybeans: Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with short - term rebounds possible, and attention should be paid to multiple uncertainties [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may change, and demand is affected by festivals. The average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient, inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices have wide - range oscillations, affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships in the polyester industry [12]. - MEG: Prices oscillate at a low level, with long - term inventory pressure and short - term supply - side changes to be watched [12]. - PR and PF: The market is on the sidelines, with different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost situations [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the agricultural products market is complex, with different products showing various trends. For example, palm oil is expected to be relatively strong, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The prices of corn and starch are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the price of live pigs is expected to oscillate widely. Natural rubber is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, cotton is expected to strengthen, sugar is expected to oscillate with pressure, pulp is expected to oscillate upward, double - gum paper is expected to oscillate, and logs are expected to oscillate within a range [1][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][16][17][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil have improved, and palm oil was relatively strong yesterday. - **Logic**: Due to the rise in crude oil, the weakening of the US dollar, and the buying of agricultural products, US soybeans rose on Monday. The domestic oil market showed differentiation, with palm oil being relatively strong. South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the planting of Brazilian soybeans is nearing completion. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain. The inventory of domestic soybeans is high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil are expected to improve, and the probability of a return to the production - reduction season and a decrease in inventory in the producing areas is high. The consumption of palm oil by biodiesel in Indonesia has increased year - on - year, and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil remains low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight recently, and the inventory of rapeseed oil continues to decline, but the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase in the later stage [1][5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil will oscillate, palm oil will oscillate strongly, and rapeseed oil will oscillate. The sentiment in the oil market has shown signs of stabilizing [2][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The trading of US soybeans is light, and the double - meal oscillates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: Overseas Christmas has led to light trading of US soybeans. The crushing volume of US soybeans in November decreased monthly, and the export to China increased slowly. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is nearly completed, and the sowing of Argentine soybeans is more than half. The production prospects of South American soybeans are optimistic. Domestically, the spot and basis are stable, the seasonal de - stocking of soybeans and soybean meal is slow, and the downstream breeding is in a loss state. The buying of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 15% year - on - year, and the buying in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 17% year - on - year. The relationship between China and Canada may improve, and the expectation of importing Canadian rapeseed has increased. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The purchase and sales are light, and the price oscillates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn is falling slightly. In the upstream, farmers in the Northeast are reluctant to sell, and the purchase demand has declined. In the North China region, the purchase and sales of local corn have picked up, and the supply of grain has increased. In the downstream, feed enterprises have established a certain safety inventory, and feed mills mostly maintain rolling replenishment. The upstream is still reluctant to sell, and the downstream inventory is increasing but still at a relatively low historical level. The market is in a state of tight balance. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as the auction of old wheat, the progress of grain sales, and the downstream profits [8][9]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand increase, and the pig price oscillates widely. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of high - weight pigs for slaughter is increasing, and the supply of large pigs is large. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and it is expected that the supply pressure of commercial pigs will ease after May 2026. The demand during the Winter Solstice has increased, and the average weight of pigs has increased. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the near - term, the price is expected to operate in a weak range. In the long - term, the price of the far - month contract is supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It maintains a narrow - range oscillation. - **Logic**: The natural rubber market continues to oscillate within a narrow range. The supply overseas has increased seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the disk to a certain extent. However, the downstream buying is light, and the sentiment in the market is bearish. Without strong expected differences and macro - market drive, it is expected to continue the range - bound oscillation. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11][12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The disk trend continues to be strong. - **Logic**: The BR disk was driven by the good sentiment of the chemical industry plate and then slowly declined. The overall position of BR has been increasing, and it is favored by funds. The fundamental situation of butadiene has improved marginally, and the absolute price of the BR disk is relatively low. The price of butadiene has oscillated and risen recently, and the downstream synthetic rubber has a strong trend, which drives the products in the industrial chain to rise. However, the high - price transaction has been blocked, and the market has fallen back after rising. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short term. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term [13][14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The low - warehouse receipt and policy expectation drive the cotton price to continue to strengthen. - **Logic**: The reduction of US cotton production in the 25/26 season is small, the export signing progress is slow, and the external market has weak upward drive. In the domestic market, the supply - demand balance sheet of cotton may be in a tight balance. The consumption of cotton is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of tightening of the planting policy next year. The slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also beneficial to the cotton price. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is driven by sentiment and is strong. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price oscillates and rebounds, but the pressure still exists. - **Logic**: In the international market, the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined, but the cumulative sugar production is still expected to be high. In the Northern Hemisphere, the production progress in Thailand is slow, and the sugar production in India has increased year - on - year. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply in the new season. In the domestic market, the sugar production in November decreased year - on - year, and the supply will increase marginally as new sugar is gradually launched. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates in the recent high - level range, and the futures trend is dominated by funds. - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuated at the high - level of the recent operating range. The spot market is weak. The bullish factors include the increase in the US dollar price of broad - leaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the possible production reduction of other pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand. The bearish factors include the difficulty in cost transmission of downstream paper, the seasonal decline in demand, and the high hedging pressure of traders. Overall, the bullish factors are more prominent, and the futures price is expected to oscillate upward. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly. The bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains unchanged [16]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: It operates in an oscillating manner. - **Logic**: The spot price of double - gum paper is stable, and some paper enterprises have announced price - increase plans for January 2026, which slightly boosts market confidence. The supply pressure in the market still exists, the upstream pulp price has risen continuously, and the paper mills have a strong demand for price increases. The downstream demand is cautious, and the social demand is still weak. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. - **Outlook**: The pattern of weak supply - demand will continue, and the market will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the logs oscillate within a range. - **Logic**: The current contradiction in the log market lies in the realization process of weak reality and strong expectation. In the short term, there is a small space for replenishment in processing plants, and the outbound volume is expected to be stable. The supply pressure has gradually eased. The overseas shipping volume is expected to decline from December to January, and the pressure of arrival at the port is expected to ease from January to February. The 03 contract has relatively strong game characteristics. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage and low - buying the 03 contract [19]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 23, 2025, showed that the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index all increased to varying degrees [177]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On December 23, 2025, the agricultural product index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 0.03% in the past 5 days, decreased by 0.87% in the past month, and decreased by 3.82% since the beginning of the year [178].