交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比回落 0.6 万吨至 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以 | | | | | 扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利 | | | | | 润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高 | | | | | 位震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保供会议召开，市场 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 担 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - **Glass**: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Edible oils**: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - **Meal**: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - **PX**: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - **PR**: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - **PF**: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating. The upward driving force of coking coal and coke has weakened, and the short-term adjustment trend continues. The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is at the bottom and oscillating. The demand for glass is weak, and the inventory continues to increase. The market for financial futures and options is volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The price of gold is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The price of logs is oscillating at the bottom, and the price of pulp is weakly oscillating. The oil and fat market is range-bound, and the meal market is oscillating with a weak bias. The price of live pigs is oscillating, and the slaughter rate is slowly rising. The price of rubber is oscillating, and the demand is gradually recovering. The PX, PTA, and MEG markets are oscillating, and the PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while domestic port arrivals have continued to decline. The daily average hot metal output has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for iron ore has marginally improved. However, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target, the futures market has continued to decline. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, but the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited. The cost pressure of coking plants is high, and the intention to start work is not high. The supply concerns in the coking coal industry have intensified, and the futures market is in a short-term adjustment trend [2] - **Rebar and wire rod**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not yet started. The core lies in the demand for steel, and the domestic demand is difficult to change. The steel price will stop falling depending on whether the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be strictly implemented by more than 5% and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy implementation. Currently, the steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2] Non-ferrous Metals - **Glass**: The spot price has been relatively weak recently, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The positive news in the market has been exhausted, and the demand for glass is generally weak. The enterprise inventory has continued to increase. According to the current supply and demand level, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity contradiction in the entire industry chain [2] - **Soda ash**: The report does not provide specific information on soda ash, only stating that the investment rating is oscillation [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance was mixed, with the CSI 300 rising by 0.44%, the SSE 50 rising by 0.58%, the CSI 500 falling by 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 falling by 0.82%. The precious metals and oil and gas sectors had capital inflows, while the gas and cultural media sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond has increased by 1bp, and the central bank has carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan. The net investment on the day is 11.5 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and silver**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The price of gold and silver is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [4] Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased, and the demand is expected to have no significant increase. The import volume of coniferous logs in September has increased compared with the previous month. The inventory pressure is relatively large, and the spot price is running steadily. It is expected that the log price will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp is running steadily. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is expected that the pulp price will be weakly oscillating [5] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price of offset paper is running steadily. The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price stockpiling is low. It is expected that the price will be weakly oscillating [5] Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The US soybean crushing has reached a record high, and the demand for soybean raw materials is strong. The production of Malaysian palm oil is higher than expected, and the export performance is strong. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the overall oil and fat market will continue to operate in a range [5] - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal**: The USDA report shows that the US soybean production, export, and ending inventory have all been adjusted down compared with September. The global soybean supply is still relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by the high livestock inventory, but the high price of soybean meal suppresses the replenishment intention. It is expected that the soybean meal will be oscillating with a weak bias in the short term [5][8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork has improved, and the slaughter rate has slowly increased. It is expected that the price of live pigs will oscillate, and the slaughter rate will continue to rise [8] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, while the output in Hainan is lower than expected. The overall inventory is still at a low level. The demand has gradually recovered, and the price is oscillating [10] Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: The PX supply is strong, and the downstream polyester is at the turning point between the off-season and the peak season. The PTA price is mainly oscillating with the cost side. The MEG has a long-term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short-term price is in a wide-range adjustment [10] - **PR and PF**: The PR market may oscillate weakly, and the PF market may be weakly sorted [10]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different outlooks. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to rise, and some are expected to decline. For example, protein meal is expected to rise, while sugar is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [2][7][17]. - Multiple factors such as international supply and demand, domestic policies, weather conditions, and macro - economic situations affect the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic import policies all have an impact on the prices of soybeans and related products [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal - **View**: Overnight US soybeans fell, and double - meal reduced positions and made up for the decline. In the short term, it is expected that the futures and spot prices will rise; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the repair of crushing margins [2][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low. The USDA report lowered US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks. US soybean premiums are lower than South American soybeans, and there is no cost - effectiveness. Domestically, the import profit of Chinese soybeans has been repaired, but the import and crushing of the January shipment are still at a loss, and the ship - buying progress is slow. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is seasonally decreasing but still higher than the same period last year [2][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and Dalian meal will fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy at around 3000 - 3050 and hold, without chasing high [3][7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market focuses on US economic data, and the Fed's internal differences in monetary policy have intensified. The USDA report is slightly bearish. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and exports have declined. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel has increased, and the inventory has remained low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: It continues to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, due to the cold weather, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. Although the supply of corn in Jilin has increased, the selling pressure in the Northeast has not been fully realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the State Grain Reserve continues, and the auction of imported corn has a high transaction rate [7][8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when it rebounds to around 2200 [8][9]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply pressure continues, and the pig price runs weakly [9]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow, which may lead to increased slaughter pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of live pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of breeding sows has begun to decline [9]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly. The near - term contracts are under high - production - capacity pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage strategy [9][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It is waiting for a driving force and fluctuating within a range [11][12]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is changeable, and there is no obvious directional driving force in the fundamentals. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, which supports the price to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the near two weeks [12]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - fluctuating and highly elastic trend. In the short term, continue to pay attention to expanding the spread between RU and NR [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The disk has temporarily entered a shock - consolidation stage [14][15]. - **Logic**: It follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and then stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. After the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream enterprises made up for the inventory, and the market stopped falling and consolidated [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are both large. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene appears, the disk is recommended to be shorted when the price is high [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: There is a callback risk in the short term [16][17]. - **Logic**: The USDA November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the expected production of cotton in the United States, China, and Brazil has increased. Domestically, the actual purchase volume of seed cotton has exceeded expectations, and the expected production of new cotton in Xinjiang has increased. The previous bullish factors have been digested, and the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract has a callback risk; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it will fluctuate strongly [17]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The rebound power is weak [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the sugar prices at home and abroad are under downward pressure. In the short term, the export volume of Brazil has decreased, and the domestic import policy is tightened, which provides some support for the domestic market [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - long term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the operating range of sugar prices is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short when the price is high [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures fluctuate at a high level, and the long - dominant pattern remains unchanged [17][18]. - **Logic**: The bullish factors for the previous rise include the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the import cost of broad - leaf pulp, the expected good production and sales of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts for the 01 contract. The bearish factors include the low total demand for softwood pulp, the slow procurement of downstream enterprises, the disturbance of the warehouse - receipt problem, and the lack of strong growth in downstream and terminal consumption [18]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the main force is competing for the warehouse - receipt problem. The pulp futures will mainly fluctuate widely [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: Paper enterprises are supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling [19]. - **Logic**: In the short term, some paper enterprises still have the intention to support prices, but dealers' inventory is rational. The orders of downstream printing factories have not changed much, and the procurement of raw paper is mainly based on rigid demand. The upstream pulp price has increased slightly, which strengthens the cost support for double - glue paper, but the transmission is general [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - glue paper has been launched one after another, and paper factories are enthusiastic about raising prices. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the pulp [21]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, and the logs maintain low - level fluctuations [23]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand will increase in December, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. The purchase intention of traders is suppressed, and the import rhythm depends on the port inventory and international costs. On the demand side, the demand in 2026 is expected to be weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs have no clear contradiction, the spot price is under pressure, and it will fluctuate at a low level recently [23]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 17, 2025**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is not provided in detail. The characteristic index shows that the CITIC Futures Commodity 20 Index is 2555.84, a decrease of 0.42%; the industrial product index is 2228.52, an increase of 0.56%. The agricultural product index is 932.55, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a 5 - day decline of 0.34%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.32% [181][182].

| | | | 铁矿：鲍威尔鹰派发言引发降息预期摇摆，宏观利好落地，黑色价格回归 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 基本面。供应方面，中国 47 港到港总量回落 544.8 万吨至 2769.3 万吨降 | | | | | 幅达 16.44%，主要是受上期高基数影响，仍处于近期偏高水平。铁水小 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 幅回升，核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲 | | | | | 弱难改。港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个 | | | | | 月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，目前钢厂的 | | | | | 利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格 | | | | | 震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损边缘，开工意向不高，焦炭第四轮提涨仍在博弈中。河北唐山地区限产 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are in short - term high - level oscillations. Pig prices are weak due to loose supply and demand. Natural rubber may have a pulse upward movement, and synthetic rubber will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Cotton prices decline slightly, sugar prices fluctuate narrowly, pulp is dominated by capital with the long - side advantage unchanged, double - offset paper will stabilize in November, and logs are in a destocking cycle and oscillate [1][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance. - **Logic**: The US soybean market is waiting for the clarity of export demand. The US federal government may resume operation this week, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The USDA will release a report on Friday. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and there is a possibility of a decrease in yield per unit. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress lags behind last year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil production and exports have declined in November, and Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but future supply is expected to increase [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil will oscillate, palm oil will oscillate, and rapeseed oil will oscillate strongly. The positive driving factors in the vegetable oil market include tight domestic rapeseed supply, declining rapeseed oil inventory, the palm oil production - reduction season, and rising domestic soybean import costs [2][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: US soybeans are testing the upper pressure level, and the reverse spread of Dalian soybean meal should be held. - **Logic**: The USDA will release a supply - and - demand report on November 15. The market expects a possible decrease in US soybean yield per unit. China's purchase of US soybeans has been digested, and the premium of US soybeans has loosened. Brazilian soybean exports are seasonally decreasing, but exports to China in November are expected to increase year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the de - stocking of soybean meal in oil mills is slow in the short term, and downstream inventory has decreased. In the medium term, the purchase of December shipments is advancing, but the January import is still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips, not chase after highs, and sell near - term contracts and buy far - term contracts [9]. 3. Corn and Starch - **View**: The market is in a stage of tight supply, and prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are rising, with low arrival volume. The cold weather has increased farmers' reluctance to sell. The demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the railway freight adjustment has increased the trading cost. The central reserve grain rotation is ongoing. In the fourth quarter, there is pressure on spot prices due to the new - grain listing [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate strongly. There may be an opportunity to short when the price rebounds to around 2200 [11]. 4. Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices are weak. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of live - weight pigs for slaughter is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. The ratio of meat to pig price has increased, the average slaughter weight has increased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has increased [12]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse - spread strategy [12]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: With the approaching expiration of the 11 - contract, attention should be paid to the possible pulse upward movement. - **Logic**: The rubber futures market rose slightly yesterday, which may be related to the upcoming expiration of the RU11 contract. The supply in overseas production areas is affected by the weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently. Seasonally, without strong expectations and macro - driving factors, rubber prices may face downward pressure [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Rubber prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating and high - elasticity trend. Attention should be paid to widening the spread between RU and NR [14]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The raw - material trading is stable, and the futures market rebounds strongly. - **Logic**: The BR futures market rebounded strongly yesterday due to the good trading of butadiene in recent days. The price of butadiene stopped falling and consolidated this week. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Given the large pressure on the fundamentals and raw - material side, it is recommended to short on rallies before the obvious supply - and - demand contradiction of butadiene appears [16]. 7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices decline slightly. - **Logic**: The positive factors in the cotton market have been digested, and the expected increase in supply and the peak - season listing of new cotton have brought downward pressure on prices. The cost of new cotton provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 - contract will oscillate within a range. In the long term, the cotton market may destock, driving prices upward [16]. 8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Internationally, the focus of sugar supply has shifted from Brazil to the Northern Hemisphere. New - season sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, the new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and the tightening of import policies supports the domestic market, but the increase in supply during the peak - production period will bring downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, prices will oscillate weakly. In the short term, prices will fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The futures market is dominated by capital, and the long - side advantage remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The futures market is oscillating at a high level, and the long - side funds are dominant. The positive factors include the rise in packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, the good production - and - sales expectations of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, the disturbance of warehouse - receipt issues, and weak downstream consumption [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate. The spot market is dominated by warehouse - receipt and weak - supply - and - demand factors, while the futures market is driven by capital. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 10. Double - Offset Paper - **View**: November is the tender peak season, and prices will stabilize in an oscillating manner. - **Logic**: In November, supported by the tender season and cost pressure, paper mills are strongly willing to support prices, and the market may stop falling and rebound. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market. In the first quarter of 2026, the market will enter a stage of narrow - amplitude oscillation [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - offset paper is starting, and prices will stop falling and stabilize [19]. 11. Logs - **View**: Logs are in a destocking cycle and will oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short term, the increase in shipments from New Zealand will lead to an increase in arrivals in December, and the import pressure will ease seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, there is still supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a small increase in inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter and a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The real - estate industry cannot strongly drive the demand for logs, and prices will oscillate weakly around the cost line [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs are weakening, and spot prices are under pressure, with a recent bottom - oscillating trend [21].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weakly oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and bullish [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" for iron ore; coal and coke are supported by fundamentals but face the core contradiction of low steel mill profits; rolled steel and rebar need to rely on production reduction and anti-"involution" policies to stop the decline [2] - The financial market has different trends in stock index futures/options, treasury bonds, and precious metals. The stock market is affected by factors such as policy effects and capital flows, and the bond market shows a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend. Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - The light industry products market has different trends in logs, pulp, and paper products. Logs face supply pressure and weakening demand, pulp is expected to rebound from the bottom, and double-offset paper is expected to oscillate [6] - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as policy adjustments, weather conditions, and supply and demand relationships. The prices of oils and fats are expected to operate in a range, and the prices of livestock products are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [6][7] - The soft commodities and polyester market are affected by factors such as weather, production capacity, and cost. The prices of rubber are expected to oscillate widely, and the prices of polyester products are expected to oscillate or wait and see [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The iron water continued to decline from a high level, and the port inventory continued to increase. The pattern of oversupply was difficult to reverse [2] - Coking coal and coke: The overseas Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the domestic 14th Five-Year Plan exceeded market expectations. The coking coal raw coal inventory dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the supply of coking coal in the main producing areas was continuously tight. The market's core contradiction was the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The macro good news landed, and the black price returned to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar was low, and the steel price stop falling depended on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The news of the coal-to-gas conversion and cold repair of production lines in Shahe fermented. The real estate completion continued to decline during the peak season, and the glass demand was weak. The enterprise inventory continued to increase [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -0.31%, the SSE 50 index recorded -0.21%, the CSI 500 index recorded -0.24%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -0.13%. The refined chemical and chemical raw material sectors showed net capital inflows, while the software and Internet sectors showed net capital outflows [2] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond due increased by 1bp, and the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan. The net withdrawal of funds on the same day was 213.4 billion yuan. The bond market showed a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes, and geopolitical risks. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry Products - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports decreased, and the demand was expected to weaken. The import volume increased seasonally, and the port inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price was stable, and the market was waiting and watching [6] - Pulp: The spot market price was strong, but the cost support for the pulp price weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the demand was poor. The pulp price was expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - Double-offset paper: The spot market price was stable. The new production capacity in South China was increasing, and the supply pressure remained. The market was expected to be cautious, and the price was expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance. The palm oil production in Malaysia was expected to increase, and the inventory continued to rise. The domestic soybean supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The oil prices were expected to operate in a range [6] - Meals: The adjustment of China's tariff policy on the US improved the short-term market sentiment, but the fundamentals were still cautious. The soybean harvest in the US was completed, and the soybean planting rate in Brazil was lower than last year and the average. The domestic oil mill operating rate recovered to a high level, and the soybean meal supply increased [6] - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs decreased slightly. Retail investors had a bullish expectation and held back sales. The slaughtering enterprise's purchase average weight increased slightly. The settlement price of live pigs increased, and the market was expected to be oscillatory and bullish [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The raw material supply in Yunnan was stable, and the acquisition price decreased slightly. The glue production in Hainan was lower than expected. The cup glue price in Thailand continued to rise. The demand side's production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The rubber price was expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX: The production increase atmosphere continued, and the oil price rebound was still weak. The short-term supply of PX increased, and the short-term PXN spread had limited room for further rebound [9] - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price was expected to be weak, and the cost support was weakened. The PTA supply decreased marginally, but there were new device trials. The overall supply and demand improved, but the cost side was uncertain [9] - MEG: The arrival volume was expected to continue to rise, and the domestic production load recovered. The overall supply was at a high level. The demand side's polyester load was temporarily resilient, but there were concerns in the future. The future supply and demand were expected to be in surplus [9] - PR: The raw material support was limited, and the supply and demand pattern remained stalemate. The polyester bottle chip market was likely to maintain a narrow-range oscillation [9] - PF: The demand side performance was average, but the PX - PTA end had strong bottom support. The polyester staple fiber market was expected to oscillate narrowly [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - oscillating; Coal and coke - rebounding; Rebar and rolled steel - oscillating; Glass - oscillating; Soda ash - weakening [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 - oscillating; CSI 300 - oscillating; CSI 500 - rebounding; CSI 1000 - rebounding; 2 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 5 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 10 - year Treasury bond - rising; Gold - high - level oscillating; Silver - high - level oscillating [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - weakly oscillating; Pulp - bottom - consolidating; Offset paper - oscillating; Edible oils - range - bound; Meal products - oscillating; Beans - oscillating; Live pigs - strongly oscillating [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry**: Rubber - oscillating; PX - on - the - sidelines; PTA - oscillating; MEG - weakening; PR - on - the - sidelines; PF - on - the - sidelines [9] 2. Core Views - **Macro - level**: The Fed's interest - rate cut is realized, Sino - US relations ease, and the 14th Five - Year Plan exceeds market expectations. The market is in short - term consolidation, with an upward mid - term trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - **Industry - level**: Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the black industry, there is an oversupply situation in iron ore; in the coal and coke sector, fundamentals support price increases. In the financial industry, stock index futures show different trends, and the bond market is in a state of small - scale rebound [2][4] 3. Summary by Industry **Black Industry** - **Iron ore**: Supply reaches a multi - year high with a 59% month - on - month increase in the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports. Demand is weak, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level. Port inventories continue to rise, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coal and coke**: Overseas and domestic positive factors support prices. The low profit of steel mills and the uncertainty of negative feedback in the steel market make the raw - material end stronger than the finished - product end. Coke starts the third round of price increases [2] - **Rebar and rolled steel**: After the macro - level positive factors are realized, prices return to fundamentals. Low static valuation, weak demand, and the need for strict production cuts and anti - "involution" policies to stop the price decline [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion and production - line cold - repair in Shahe is fermenting. Real - estate completion decline drags down demand, and inventory increases. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the supply - demand surplus [2] **Financial Industry** - **Stock index futures/options**: Different stock indices show different trends. Some sectors have capital inflows or outflows. The market is expected to be upward in the mid - term, and long positions are recommended [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises, and the central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations. The market shows a small - scale rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds [4] **Light Industry** - **Logs**: Supply pressure increases with seasonal import growth. Demand is expected to weaken as the downstream enters the off - season. Port inventories are likely to continue to accumulate, and prices are expected to weakly oscillate [6] - **Pulp**: Cost support weakens, paper - mill inventory pressure is high, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to bottom - consolidate [6] - **Edible oils**: The US government shutdown causes a lack of data, and concerns about soybean exports rise. Palm oil production and inventory pressure suppress prices. Crude - oil price weakness affects the bio - fuel industry and drags down the edible - oil market. Domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to range - bound [6] - **Meal products**: China's tariff cut on US agricultural products improves short - term sentiment, but the follow - up price trend depends on actual procurement and export rhythm. Domestic supply increases, and demand is weak, with prices expected to oscillate [6][7] - **Live pigs**: Transaction weight slightly decreases. Settlement prices rise due to factors such as increased demand for large pigs, improved slaughter - enterprise orders, and enhanced secondary - fattening enthusiasm. Prices are expected to rise in the coming week [7] **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry** - **Rubber**: Different regions have different weather impacts on raw - material supply. Overall inventory is low, and demand shows signs of recovery. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX and PTA**: PX has short - term supply increase and demand decrease, and PTA's cost - end support weakens. Both prices mainly follow oil - price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Supply is at a high level, demand is expected to decline in the future, and price is under pressure from inventory accumulation [9] - **PR and PF**: PR may adjust strongly due to cost factors, and PF is expected to have a narrow - range consolidation [9]