Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The divergence between bulls and bears in the oil market has intensified, and soybean oil is oscillating at a high level. International factors are complex, with the CBOT soybean futures continuing to oscillate and bottom - seek, and the Malaysian palm oil futures trading in a narrow range. In the domestic market, soybean oil is relatively strong, palm oil continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and rapeseed oil maintains range - bound trading [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Macro and Industry News - Analysts predict that the global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks will be 127.42 million tons, with a forecast range of 125 - 129 million tons, higher than the USDA's July estimate of 126.07 million tons [2] - Wet weather has delayed the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK. Analysts expect the 2025/26 rapeseed production in the EU 27 and the UK to be 20.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. The cool and wet weather in Central Europe will last until the weekend, and warm and dry weather will return in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for rapeseed harvest in other European regions [2] - The 2025/26 Australian rapeseed production is expected to reach 5.7 million tons, the same as the previous forecast. The long - term weather forecast shows that the temperature and rainfall in Australia from August to October will be close to normal, which is conducive to crop growth [2] - China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 61.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. China's edible vegetable oil imports in July were 0.534 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [3][4] Viewpoints and Strategies - Internationally, the growth conditions of US soybeans are good, with a strong expectation of a bumper new - season harvest. The demand side lacks positive drivers, so the CBOT soybean futures continue to oscillate and bottom - seek. The estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July reached a two - year high, but the output decreased month - on - month in early August. The pre - festival stocking in India is expected to boost consumption, and the weak international energy prices lead to the narrow - range consolidation of Malaysian palm oil futures [8][9] - Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continues to rise. The significant year - on - year increase in soybean imports in July, recent export increases, the continuous rise in South American soybean premiums, and trade risk premiums make soybean oil relatively strong. The palm oil inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease, continuing the pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the external cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. The Canadian rapeseed price has fallen to a two - month low, and the uncertainty of China - Canada trade policies supports the rapeseed oil price, so rapeseed oil maintains range - bound trading [9]