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市场整体转暖,油脂震荡上扬
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the reduction of macro - shocks, the oil and fat market has returned to fundamental trading. The loosening of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs has improved the sentiment of the oil and oilseed sector. Coupled with the recovery of crude oil prices from a low level, palm oil has stopped falling. The total inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely [8][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Abstract - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and rebounded. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.99% to close at 7,934 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.00% to close at 8,376 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 3.09% to close at 9,506 yuan/ton [5][31]. - From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 19.88%, and Malaysian palm oil rose 2.08%. As of the week of April 22, about 21% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 23% in the previous week and 20% in the same period last year. US soybeans rose 1.19% this week [6][7][31]. - The domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely. The inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the soybean oil inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in many years due to low soybean crushing volume. The palm oil inventory in the producing areas is expected to stop falling and start to rise, and the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel limits the increase in palm oil prices. The rapeseed oil fundamentals are relatively stable and unable to break the current sideways consolidation state [8][32]. b. Spot Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,470 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past five years [9]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [10]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - As of April 18, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 69,000 tons to 730,000 tons. On April 23, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 364,000 tons [16]. - As of April 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,567,690 tons [19]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 536 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [22]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [23]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [25]. d. Comprehensive Analysis - The content of the comprehensive analysis is basically the same as that in the abstract, including the price changes of futures contracts, production and drought information, and the outlook for the oil and fat market [31][32].