油脂期货投资策略
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银河期货油脂日报-20260305
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 10:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the volatility of oils and fats may increase due to geopolitical factors, and the overall trend will remain volatile. It is difficult to conduct unilateral trading, so it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. P59 and Y59 can consider reverse arbitrage at high prices, and options are recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil on 2605 was 8370 with no change. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8650, 8730, and 8590 respectively, and the basis in these areas were 360, 280, and 220 respectively, with the Tianjin basis down 10. The closing price of palm oil on 2605 was 9070, up 68. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9020, 9010, and 9130 respectively, and the basis were - 50, - 60, and 60 respectively, with no change. The closing price of rapeseed oil on 2605 was 9489, up 3. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10149, 9769, and the basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong were 660 and 280 respectively, with the Guangdong basis down 80 [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil was 28, down 2; that of palm oil was - 22, with no change; that of rapeseed oil was 74, down 11 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread was - 700, down 68; the OI - Y spread was 1119, up 3; the OI - P spread was 419, down 65; the oil - meal ratio was 2.94, down 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 183, and the CNF price was 1111. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1527, and the FOB price was 1085 [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean oil inventory was 91.3 tons, down from 94.5 tons last week and compared with 92.1 tons in the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 78.7 tons, up from 70.6 tons last week and compared with 41.3 tons in the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 27.1 tons, up from 24.7 tons last week and compared with 75.1 tons in the same period last year [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The USDA monthly report is expected to show that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 344 million bushels, and the soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 179.06 million tons [4]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of February 27, 2026 (the 9th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 78.67 tons, up 8.03 tons from last week. The origin quotes were stable, the disk import profit was inverted by about 180, and there were rumors of palm oil purchases in the past two days. The basis was stable, and the spot market changed little. The short - term palm oil was affected by geopolitical factors, and the POGO basis quickly turned negative, which was beneficial to the increase in biodiesel demand. It is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 91.33 tons, down 3.16 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.34%. The basis of soybean oil was stable with a slight decline. The oil mill's crushing operation rate was gradually increasing, the supply of soybean oil was increasing, and the spot market transactions increased. The domestic soybean oil supply was sufficient, and it was recommended to maintain the reverse arbitrage idea in the monthly direction [5][6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of February 27, 2026, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 15.1 tons, up 5.3 tons from last week, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 27.1 tons, up 2.4 tons. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil was stable at around 1080 US dollars, and the import profit was inverted by about - 1500. As the rapeseed arrival volume increases in the later period, the supply recovery expectation is enhanced, and the market demand is weak. It is expected that the rapeseed oil basis will show a weak trend. The short - term low inventory and geopolitical factors support the rapeseed oil price, but the large arrival of Canadian rapeseed will suppress the increase [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily as the short - term volatility of oils and fats may increase due to geopolitical factors, and the overall trend will remain volatile [9]. - **Arbitrage**: P59 and Y59 can consider reverse arbitrage at high prices [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [14][15][18][22].