Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient last week, and the market was gradually digesting the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. It mainly fluctuated with the sentiment of US soybean oil and domestic commodities this week. Although there is a callback window in September, low - level long - position building for palm oil will be the main theme in the second half of the year [1][2][4]. - For soybean oil, before the fourth quarter, US soybean oil will mainly oscillate in the range of 50 - 56 cents per pound. If the policies regarding import raw material subsidy differences and redistribution are finalized, the policy negatives for US soybean oil may be exhausted. Domestic soybean oil may benefit from the rise of the soy complex after the National Day, and there will be opportunities to build long positions in soybean oil after palm oil completes its bottom - seeking oscillation in September [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient, and the market was digesting the callback pressure from the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.28% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The market's concern about the shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter eased. The soybean oil price had limited upward momentum, and the 01 contract fell 0.10% last week due to the lack of progress in soybean procurement in Sino - US negotiations and the weak rebound of US soybeans [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm oil - Demand: European and American gasoline and diesel cracks are at a year - on - year high, and the procurement price of European SAF and UCO from China is still rising. The demand support from Europe shows no sign of ending [2]. - Supply: In September, increased rainfall may cause the monthly output to remain flat or decline. The overall output is estimated to be in the range of 1.8 - 1.85 million tons, with August likely to be the annual output peak. Indonesia's supply may experience marginal easing. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then decline rapidly [2]. - Inventory: Malaysia's inventory in September may hover around 2.3 million tons. India's palm oil imports may be suppressed, and China's demand may not be effectively stimulated unless Malaysia's September output greatly exceeds expectations [2]. - Price: Pay attention to the domestic macro - sentiment, the support of US soybean oil at 50 - 52 cents per pound, and India's search for additional import cost - effectiveness of palm oil. Wait for the矛盾 accumulation in the fourth quarter [2][4]. Soybean oil - US soybean oil: Before the fourth quarter, it will mainly oscillate in the range of 50 - 56 cents per pound. If the policy is finalized, it will help reduce inventory and realize the expected valuation [3]. - Domestic soybean oil: It depends on the smoothness of US soybean procurement. If the Sino - US trade issue persists and causes a soybean import gap, there will be opportunities to build long positions in soybean oil [3][4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Price: Palm oil main contract fell 0.28%, soybean oil main contract fell 0.10%, rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.66%, Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 0.47%, and CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.94% [6]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of various varieties showed different changes [6]. - Spreads: The spreads between different varieties and contracts showed different trends, such as the 13.36% increase in the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil changed compared with last week [6]. 3.4 Core Fundamentals of Oils - Production Forecast: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is estimated to be 1.8 - 1.85 million tons [8]. - Inventory Situation: Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase slightly in September, and Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter [8][9]. - Price - related: The FOB price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia slightly rebounded, and the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra recovered [9]. - Export Data: Malaysia's palm oil export volume from September 1 - 20 was 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase compared with the same period last month [9]. - Other Indicators: The POGO spread oscillated at a high level, and the import profit of Indian palm oil was significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oils [9][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil dropped 103 to close at 4,012 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.5%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 160 to close at 8,376 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.87%; the soybean oil 09 contract dropped 154 to close at 8,002 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 260 to close at 9,466 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.67%; the main contract of CBOT US soybean oil dropped 2.42 to close at 52.62 cents/pound, a decline of 4.4%; the active contract of ICE rapeseed dropped 42.8 to close at 698.7 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 5.77% [4][7] - The overall oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly due to the easing of the conflict between Israel and Iran. After the cease - fire agreement took effect, the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict weakened, and the sharp decline in oil prices dragged down the oil and fat sector. High - frequency data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June might increase moderately, the growth rate of export demand narrowed, and the inventory at the end of June was expected to continue to increase, in a seasonal inventory - building process. The domestic palm oil was in the inventory - building rhythm, and the tight pattern improved [4][7] - Macroeconomically, the US Treasury Secretary hinted that tariffs might be extended until September 1st. US economic data weakened, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, the US stock market performed strongly, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. Oil prices entered an oscillatory adjustment stage after sharp fluctuations. Fundamentally, Brazil raised the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel from 14% to 15%, which boosted the market. It was expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of June would continue to increase, and the overall supply was in a loose process, waiting for the release of the MPOB report. Palm oil purchases arrived at ports one after another, inventory rebounded, the previous pattern of rigid - demand procurement eased, and trading volume increased during the week. Overall, palm oil might oscillate in the short term [4][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Data - The table shows the price, change, and change rate of various contracts such as CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, etc. from June 20th to June 27th, including futures and spot prices [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector declined due to geopolitical factors and inventory changes. Different institutions had different data on the production and export of Malaysian palm oil. For example, from June 1 - 25, 2025, the production data from SPPOMA showed an increase, while MPOA and UOB data showed different degrees of decrease. Export data from ITS, AmSpec, and SGS also varied. The MPOB agency lowered the reference price of Malaysian crude palm oil in July, and the export tax rate decreased. GAPKI data showed that Indonesia's palm oil export volume in April decreased compared with the previous year, while production increased and inventory reached 3.04 million tons at the end of April [7][8][9] - As of June 20, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions increased compared with the previous week and the same period last year. As of June 27, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil increased [10] Industry News - Malaysia signed the MEEPA, which will reduce import tariffs through a tariff - quota mechanism, and the tariff reduction range is between 20% and 40% according to product categories. The agreement also achieved three key results for sustainable palm oil [12] - Traders warned that due to the congestion at Kandla Port, there might be a shortage and supply interruption of edible oil in India. Many ships carrying Indonesian palm oil were waiting to unload [12][13] - Malaysia established a special committee to strengthen its response to the EU's zero - deforestation law, aiming to ensure its low - risk country status and strengthen the traceability system [13] Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oil futures, and spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the price differences, import profits, monthly production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of domestic three major oils [15][16][19]