Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption this week brings uncertainty. The impact of tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and it's necessary to guard against the negative emotional impact of Trump's extreme pressure. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and the market expects positive signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - In the medium - term, real estate sales are seasonally rising at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and seasonally warming up in summer. Consumption is boosted by fiscal subsidies, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export is ending, with a possible decline in the third quarter. Domestic anti - involution policies may reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a rebound in prices [4]. - Domestically, liquidity is generally loose, while overseas, it is marginally tightening. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from oversold levels. The domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, but the pressure of share unlocks remains [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral to high level, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The stock market may rise in an oscillating manner in the third quarter. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures after sharp declines due to tariff policy shocks this week. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: Last week, US stocks led the rise, and the Hang Seng Technology Index led the decline. The performance order is Nasdaq > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > Shanghai Composite Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > German Stock Market > Nikkei 225 > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Technology [8]. - **Industry Performance**: Steel led the rise, and comprehensive finance led the decline. The order is Steel > Bank > Building Materials > Medicine... > Transportation > Comprehensive > Computer > Comprehensive Finance [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.22%, 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.05% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH significantly narrowing. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.05%, - 0.23%, - 0.27%, and - 0.31% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.05%, - 0.31%, - 0.44%, and - 0.48% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly widening [15][16]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 19.71 billion yuan, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 302.83 billion yuan, an increase of 13.89 billion yuan from last week, and the share was 199.171 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.48 billion shares from last week [25]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first week of July, equity financing was 3.67 billion yuan, with 1 company. Among them, IPO financing was 640 million yuan, private placement was 0 yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.03 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing declined significantly. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 90.83 billion yuan, an increase of 33.28 billion yuan from the previous week, remaining at the second - highest level this year [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 202.75 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase of 65.22 billion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. After the end of the quarter, the open - market operations recovered liquidity. MLF had a net injection for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral [30]. - **Money Demand**: Last week, the net money demand for national debt was 19.993 billion yuan, for local debt was 4.361 billion yuan, and for other bonds was 34.787 billion yuan. The total net money demand in the bond market was 59.141 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [33]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 27.4bp, - 9.9bp, and - 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.31%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 5.9bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 8.1bp to 1.59%. The overall fund price was oscillating at a low level [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yield curve flattened. The central bank's liquidity recovery in the open market made the short - end stronger, and the credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 4th, the US 10 - year bond rate increased by 6.0bp to 4.35%, the inflation expectation increased by 4.0bp to 2.33%, and the real interest rate increased by 2.00bp to 2.02%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 6.40bp to - 270.78bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 3rd, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally recovered to 3.329 million square meters, but was still at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales seasonally declined to the lowest level in the past seven years. The overall real estate market sales were weak, and more incremental policies were expected [46]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of July 4th, the subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained high, with a daily average of 83.58 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 32.5% increase compared to the same period in 2021. The service industry's economic activity seasonally recovered in summer. The Baidu Hundred - City Traffic Congestion Delay Index remained flat compared to last week, at a neutral level in the past three years [50]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate declined across the board. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased by 0.54%, that of asphalt increased by 0.2%, that of cement clinker enterprises decreased by 6.7%, and that of coke enterprises decreased by 0.18%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.45% compared to last week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: Both goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels. The number of civil aviation flights for summer tourism consumption increased strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, with limited growth, and there was a risk of a second seasonal decline from July to August [57]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks continued. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, it was necessary to guard against the risk of a second decline due to renewed trade frictions after the expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption [60]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US May non - farm payrolls report slightly exceeded expectations, but the structure implied a cooling signal. The US non - farm employment showed certain resilience, and the service industry PMI rebounded unexpectedly. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in 2025 was reduced to 2 times, with a cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a rate cut in July dropped to 4.7% [62][66]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium last week was 3.35%, a 0.06% decrease from last week, at the 68.8% percentile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.24%, a 0.21% decrease from last week, at the 24.3% percentile, indicating a low level of foreign - capital attractiveness. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 79.9%, 72.9%, 78.2%, and 60.3% percentiles in the past five years respectively, and the attractiveness of each index's valuation decreased marginally [69][74]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal rules, the stock market is in a seasonally oscillating and rising period with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. In general, the market is likely to rise in July. Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on pullbacks, short - term shorting on sharp rises of IF and IH, and medium - term long - term on sharp declines. This week, the market is greatly disturbed by the uncertainty of US tariff policies. If there are negative impacts, pay attention to going long on the growth style on sharp declines [77]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week's financial calendar includes China's June CPI and PPI data, and attention should be paid to whether prices have stabilized and rebounded. Overseas markets should focus on the US Treasury auctions and the progress of the Trump administration's tariff policy negotiations with other countries [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. The short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the logic of the Fed's rate - cut is brewing. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently. [5] - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%. International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed certain changes. For example, Comex gold rose 0.56% compared to the previous day. [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but economic recession and geopolitical risks remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed's rate - cut logic is brewing. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump is disappointed with the US - Japan trade negotiation and threatens to raise tariffs. [1] - **Monetary**: Powell said the Fed needs more data before cutting rates, not ruling out action in July. Market expects the next rate - cut in September, with a total rate - cut space of about 75 basis points in 2025. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D also changed. For example, Comex silver rose 1.50% compared to the previous day. [1][6] - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Capital and inventory factors affect the silver market. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 188.42 billion US dollars to 67134.58 billion US dollars. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. showed certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI was 4.50%, up 0.65% compared to the previous period. [10][11] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP growth rate decreased, and indicators such as unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and labor participation rate also changed. For example, the annualized year - on - year GDP was 1.90%, down 1.00% compared to the previous period. [11] - **Other Data**: Data on the US Treasury market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, etc. also showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.50%, up 1.21% compared to the previous day. [11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7%. [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil dropped 103 to close at 4,012 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.5%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 160 to close at 8,376 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.87%; the soybean oil 09 contract dropped 154 to close at 8,002 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 260 to close at 9,466 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.67%; the main contract of CBOT US soybean oil dropped 2.42 to close at 52.62 cents/pound, a decline of 4.4%; the active contract of ICE rapeseed dropped 42.8 to close at 698.7 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 5.77% [4][7] - The overall oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly due to the easing of the conflict between Israel and Iran. After the cease - fire agreement took effect, the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict weakened, and the sharp decline in oil prices dragged down the oil and fat sector. High - frequency data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June might increase moderately, the growth rate of export demand narrowed, and the inventory at the end of June was expected to continue to increase, in a seasonal inventory - building process. The domestic palm oil was in the inventory - building rhythm, and the tight pattern improved [4][7] - Macroeconomically, the US Treasury Secretary hinted that tariffs might be extended until September 1st. US economic data weakened, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, the US stock market performed strongly, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. Oil prices entered an oscillatory adjustment stage after sharp fluctuations. Fundamentally, Brazil raised the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel from 14% to 15%, which boosted the market. It was expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of June would continue to increase, and the overall supply was in a loose process, waiting for the release of the MPOB report. Palm oil purchases arrived at ports one after another, inventory rebounded, the previous pattern of rigid - demand procurement eased, and trading volume increased during the week. Overall, palm oil might oscillate in the short term [4][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Data - The table shows the price, change, and change rate of various contracts such as CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, etc. from June 20th to June 27th, including futures and spot prices [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector declined due to geopolitical factors and inventory changes. Different institutions had different data on the production and export of Malaysian palm oil. For example, from June 1 - 25, 2025, the production data from SPPOMA showed an increase, while MPOA and UOB data showed different degrees of decrease. Export data from ITS, AmSpec, and SGS also varied. The MPOB agency lowered the reference price of Malaysian crude palm oil in July, and the export tax rate decreased. GAPKI data showed that Indonesia's palm oil export volume in April decreased compared with the previous year, while production increased and inventory reached 3.04 million tons at the end of April [7][8][9] - As of June 20, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions increased compared with the previous week and the same period last year. As of June 27, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil increased [10] Industry News - Malaysia signed the MEEPA, which will reduce import tariffs through a tariff - quota mechanism, and the tariff reduction range is between 20% and 40% according to product categories. The agreement also achieved three key results for sustainable palm oil [12] - Traders warned that due to the congestion at Kandla Port, there might be a shortage and supply interruption of edible oil in India. Many ships carrying Indonesian palm oil were waiting to unload [12][13] - Malaysia established a special committee to strengthen its response to the EU's zero - deforestation law, aiming to ensure its low - risk country status and strengthen the traceability system [13] Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oil futures, and spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the price differences, import profits, monthly production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of domestic three major oils [15][16][19]

Report Overview - **Date**: June 26, 2025 - **Report Type**: Main Variety Strategy Breakfast - **Covered Industries**: Commodity Futures and Options (including Metal and New Energy Materials, Livestock and Soft Commodities, Energy and Chemicals) Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: 78300 - 79300 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut, declining scrap copper supply, tight supply - demand of copper concentrates, increased US trade demand, and continuous destocking of domestic inventories will boost copper prices [4] Summary by Section - **Macro**: Most Fed officials believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year [1] - **Supply**: In May, total scrap copper imports decreased by 9.55% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year. The proportion of scrap copper imports from the US will fall below 5% in June. Spot supply in the Guangdong market increased, while that in the North China market was normal [1] - **Demand**: In May, the total export volume of refined copper rods increased by 17.57% month - on - month and 34% year - on - year. However, terminal demand weakened in June. Many recycled copper rod enterprises had insufficient orders, and downstream copper factories in Chongqing almost stopped purchasing [2] - **Inventory**: On June 25, LME copper inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21470 tons [2] - **Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of sideways with a bullish bias and sell deep out - of - the - money put options [1] Livestock and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 will oscillate weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 will build a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [5] Core View - Domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors. After recent declines fully digesting negative factors, it may build a phased bottom around 3000 points. The "sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400" strategy can be continued [5][7] Summary by Section - **Weather and Geopolitics**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 entered a volatile market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed producing areas. The easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has affected the price of soybean meal [5] - **International Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 22, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. Forecasts show sufficient import volumes of soybeans from June to August. Anec raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons [6] - **Rapeseed**: Canadian new - crop rapeseed is planted relatively fast but is experiencing mild drought. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export volume of old - crop rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 9 million tons [6] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the position of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Petroleum Asphalt Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Weak sideways movement [8] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [9] Core View - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have also followed. In the long term, the asphalt fundamentals are relatively weak in summer, and the asphalt crack spread will continue to weaken [11] Summary by Section - **Supply**: Local refineries' losses in asphalt production have decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. It is expected that they will continue to rise before the peak season [9] - **Demand**: High prices in the north and rainfall in the south have restricted demand. Some downstream enterprises have pre - stocking demand. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has increased significantly. Asphalt plant inventories have continued to decline, and the decline in social inventories has slowed down [10] - **Cost**: In the short term, oil prices have fallen due to the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure [10] - **Strategy**: Short fuel oil and long asphalt spread [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC market is weak with ample supply and sluggish demand, and the decline in social inventory has slowed down. The caustic soda market is also weak, with expected increased supply pressure and lack of positive drivers in the short term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,844 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+2), and the South China basis was -24 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was -494 yuan/ton (+18), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was -640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was -11.4 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), the social inventory of PVC was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.62% (-0.83%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall operation rate of PVC was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,274 yuan/ton (+2), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 164 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 91.28 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The easing of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the weak macro - sentiment have dragged down the PVC price. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The supply is abundant, the cost support is weak, the domestic demand is sluggish, and the export is increasing but has uncertainties [3] Caustic Soda - The operation rate of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to intensify. The market transaction is weak, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and the demand side is also weak. The factory inventory is still at a high level [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - export policies and the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, the price has limited downward space in the short term, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - A-shares' major indices rose collectively, with significant recovery in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was strong, with over 4,700 stocks rising. Overseas, the ceasefire in the Middle East eased geopolitical tensions, and the Fed signaled a potential interest rate cut, which alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate and boosted market risk appetite. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are still under pressure, and the recovery of domestic demand may become the main driving force for economic growth. Strategically, it is recommended to lightly open positions on dips [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - IF, IH, IC, and IM's main and sub - main contracts all rose. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 3852.4, up 52.6 [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread rose to 1188.6, up 19.2 [2] - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts showed various trends. For example, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 19.8, up 6.2 [2] Futures Position Data - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,840.00, up 3076.0 [2] Spot Price Data - The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. For example, the CSI 300 was 3904.03, up 46.1 [2] - The basis of the main contracts showed different changes. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 51.6, up 8.9 [2] Market Sentiment Data - A - share trading volume reached 14,480.59 billion yuan, up 3011.36 billion yuan. The margin trading balance was 18,169.01 billion yuan, up 44.20 billion yuan [2] - The proportion of rising stocks was 88.20%, up 6.15%. The Shibor was 1.370%, up 0.003 [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market strength was 8.20, up 0.60. The technical aspect was 8.80, up 0.60 [2] Industry News - Iran launched a missile attack on a US military base in Qatar, but there were no US casualties. Trump thanked Iran for the prior notice and called for peace. A cease - fire agreement has been reached, involving two 12 - hour cease - fire periods [2] - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman said she might support an interest rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee also expressed views on interest rate cuts and stagflation risks [2] Key Data to Focus On - June 24, 20:30: US Q1 current account [3] - June 24, 22:00: Fed Chair Powell testifies on monetary policy in the House [3] - June 25, 20:30: US May PCE and core PCE [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The V2509 contract of PVC showed a volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate, and the demand side also had a decrease in downstream开工率. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend but at a slower pace with relatively low inventory pressure. The domestic PVC industry is in a peak maintenance period, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream is in the off - season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and anti - dumping policies may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices have resumed, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts, and the raw material price of the ethylene method is supported by strong oil prices. Considering the digestion of geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the short - term V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 4850 and the pressure around 4950 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4896 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 992,189 lots, down 63,888 lots; the open interest was 969,157 lots, up 16,127 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures were 753,218 lots, down 1,866 lots; the short positions were 783,171 lots, up 21,589 lots; the net long positions were - 29,953 lots, down 23,455 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4824.62 yuan/ton, up 28.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4982.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4882.5 yuan/ton, up 26.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 86 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 2480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC开工率 was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points; the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the ethylene - based PVC开工率 was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons. The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.14; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 15.01%, up 0.95 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.93%, up 0.38 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.51%, up 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.51%, up 0.93 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 6 to 12, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%. As of June 19, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.97% [3].

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to reduced operational loads or shutdowns of some methanol facilities in Iran, resulting in significant supply uncertainty and a projected decline in production [1][2] - Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, as well as energy infrastructure, have further intensified the conflict, raising concerns about the potential impact on Iran's natural gas production, which is crucial for methanol production [2][3] - As of mid-June, four methanol plants in Iran were reportedly undergoing maintenance, and the remaining facilities were operating at low capacity, raising concerns about future methanol exports from Iran, a key supplier for China [3] Group 2 - Domestic methanol production in China has been increasing, with a reported output of 46.36 million tons by mid-June, a 17% increase year-on-year, and an estimated annual production of around 100 million tons for 2024 [4] - China's methanol imports from the Middle East accounted for 76% of total imports, with Iran being a significant source, producing 17.16 million tons in 2024, and potentially exceeding 20 million tons in 2025 [3][4] - The ongoing increase in domestic methanol production capacity is expected to mitigate potential supply gaps from the Middle East, suggesting that internal supply and diversified import routes may stabilize the domestic methanol market despite external risks [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating Bearish [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [12] - Cotton: Oscillating Bearish [13] - Sugar: Oscillating Bearish [15] - Pulp: Oscillating Bearish [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [19] Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and rubber is oscillating bullishly. The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided. Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals. The spot price increase of corn/starch has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating. The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. The synthetic rubber futures are moving horizontally. The pulp market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly. The cotton price is slightly oscillating with weak rebound momentum. The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded. The fluctuation of logs has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided [5]. - **Logic**: The EPA's biofuel blending obligation proposal is beneficial to the demand expectation of US soybean oil. The US soybean planting progress is good, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The production increase expectation of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited, and the export expectation is optimistic. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [5]. - **Outlook**: Driven by positive factors such as the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, and the EPA's biofuel proposal, oils and fats may operate bullishly in the near future, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase and the technical resistance at key levels [5]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the rise in crude oil and the EPA proposal are beneficial to US soybeans. The sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going well, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. The freight has increased, and the discount of South American soybeans has risen. Domestically, the strengthening of overseas soybean prices has boosted the domestic soybean meal futures. The basis in East China has rebounded. Although the soybean arrival volume will increase in the next two months, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is not under pressure for the time being, and the market demand is stabilizing [6]. - **Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating range. The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly. Oil mills can actively sell hedging at high prices, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low prices. Unilateral positions can be bought at low prices, and a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be adopted [6]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price increase of corn has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable, and the rise has slowed down. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as the low arrival volume at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, the outflow of corn in the Northeast, and the new wheat listing. The demand for corn in the feed and deep - processing industries has changed. In the medium term, the import of grains is tightening, and the inventory reduction expectation for the 24/25 season is established [7]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected production - demand gap, the trend is still upward, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of the import auction policy [7]. 4. Pigs - **View**: The supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: After the previous weight reduction and price decline, the reluctance of farmers to sell has fluctuated. The demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, the slaughter weight of pigs is decreasing, and the supply of large pigs is still large. In the long term, the pig production capacity is still at a high level, and the number of newborn piglets has been increasing [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearishly. The near - term contracts are under pressure due to the release of large - pig inventory, and the far - term contracts are affected by the expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [8]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The market sentiment is warm, and the futures are oscillating bullishly [10]. - **Logic**: The resurgence of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has boosted the commodity market sentiment. Although natural rubber has no direct relationship with crude oil, it is driven by the strong market sentiment. The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has rebounded slightly. The demand side has seen a partial recovery in the start - up of tire enterprises, but the demand expectation is still weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The impact of external events on the futures will continue to dominate, but the duration is unknown. The Ru futures may maintain an oscillating bullish trend in the short term due to the low off - standard basis [10]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures are moving horizontally [12]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East has made the international crude oil price temporarily strong, which has driven the BR futures to be bullish. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral. The operating rate of private enterprises has declined, but the inventory has increased slightly. The price of butadiene has declined, and the market supply is relatively abundant [12]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical conflict may last for at least one week, and the emotional disturbance to the futures may continue. Although the downward trend in fundamentals remains unchanged, short - term participation should be cautious, and the futures may operate oscillating bullishly [12]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is slightly oscillating, and the rebound momentum is weak [13]. - **Logic**: The 25/26 season's cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The demand side has entered the off - season, and the inventory of textile products has increased. The commercial inventory of cotton has been depleted faster than in previous years, which may support the old - crop contracts, but the upward driving force is not strong [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and oscillating bearishly in the long term [13]. 8. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded [15]. - **Logic**: After the continuous decline of the external market driving the domestic market to new lows, the external market has rebounded, and the short - term decline of the domestic market has slowed down. The fundamentals of the sugar market have changed little. The new - season global sugar supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar and the strong crude oil price are beneficial to sugar prices. The domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrival of imported sugar [15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the long term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season; the sugar price may rebound for valuation repair in the short term [15]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have slightly declined, and the supply and demand are still weak. In the short term, the pulp import volume remains high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, the import pressure is still large, and the demand peak season will not start until August [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply is resilient, and the demand remains weak. The pulp futures are expected to operate oscillating bearishly [16]. 10. Logs - **View**: The fluctuation has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [19]. - **Logic**: The log futures have risen and then fallen, and the delivery game is intensifying. The spot price center of mainstream ports has risen due to the clearance of old goods. The supply pressure will ease at the end of June or early July, and the demand is in the off - season. The profit of downstream processing plants is recovering, and the market sentiment may lead to price support [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to last until the end of June to early July, and the demand has no obvious improvement expectation. The short - term fundamentals maintain a weak balance. The futures may fluctuate sharply in the short term due to the high virtual - to - real ratio of the delivery game [19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). Due to the Israel-Iran conflict, two EG plants in Iran with a total capacity of 950,000 tons unexpectedly shut down, leading to an increase in EG prices on Monday. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The inventory data from different sources showed a decline, and the port inventory was expected to be stable. The supply in June in China was gradually recovering, and the overall load was not high. Overseas supply was affected by the situation in Iran. The demand decreased due to polyester production cuts [1][2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term strategy for a single position is bullish, and attention should be paid to the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 86 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The report also mentioned relevant profit data for other production methods and the overall and syngas - based operating rates of EG [1][10]. International Spread - The report presented the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It covered the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips [21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 564,000 tons (down 34,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, and the planned arrivals this week were 100,000 tons. The port inventory was expected to be stable [2].