1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of chemical products generally declined due to the impact of geopolitical factors such as the tense situation between the United States and Iran and the threat from Trump to Iran, and the market is highly correlated with the oil price and geopolitical situation [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and the market trends are affected by factors such as device maintenance, new capacity release, downstream demand, and inventory changes [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures dropped significantly. The supply of the PDH device is tight, and the demand is expected to pick up. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. The supply of styrene is supported, but the downstream demand is cautious. The supply of polypropylene is supported, but the downstream demand is weak [2] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA may decline as the risk premium fades. The load of ethylene glycol, short fiber, and bottle chip has changed, and the market is affected by the Middle - East situation and downstream demand [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures followed the oil price decline, and the port inventory decreased. The price of styrene futures dropped, but the fundamentals are still good, and the port is not expected to accumulate inventory [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market is expected to be strong due to factors such as reduced imports, spring inspections, and demand recovery. The urea market is expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - The price of PVC dropped, the supply decreased, and the export market is expected to be good. The price of caustic soda dropped, the inventory decreased, and the supply pressure eased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash weakened, the inventory decreased but still faced pressure, and the supply expanded. The price of glass dropped, the inventory removal slowed down, and the market may fluctuate in a wide range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand of PVC is in a tight balance. The high inventory in the early stage is expected to be digested. The V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitical news. With the downstream entering the traditional peak season, the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise to a relatively high level throughout the year. In the context of the continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the positive impact on exports in the future cannot be falsified [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5853 yuan/ton, down 398 yuan; the trading volume is 1977737 lots, down 99122 lots; the open interest is 753229 lots, down 50885 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1037880 lots, down 16718 lots; the short positions are 1041333 lots, down 5499 lots; the net long positions are - 3453 lots, down 11219 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 7300 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 6021.48 yuan/ton, up 328.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6725 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 6141.25 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1050 US dollars/ton, with no change. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 1050 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 301 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2900 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2921.67 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2733 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, up 100.5 yuan. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 916 US dollars/ton, up 129 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 969 US dollars/ton, up 181 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 351 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 350 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 80.12%, down 1.23 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 84.71%, up 1.78 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.24%, down 8.36 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 61.05 tons, down 2.13 tons; the total social inventory in East China is 56.73 tons, down 1.35 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 4.32 tons, down 0.78 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.74%, down 0.53 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 32.31%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 50.78%, down 3.75 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 50.77%, down 3.69 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's capacity utilization rate was 80.12%, down 1.23% from the previous period. From March 14th to 20th, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 2.33% to 41.66%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 39.2%, and the start - up rate of profiles increased by 4.35% to 34.35%. As of March 19th, the social inventory of PVC was 137.13 tons, a 2.55% decrease from the previous period and a 64.47% increase year - on - year. From March 13th to 19th, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 4.68% to 5391 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 13.06% to 7294 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 193 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 198 yuan/ton to - 433 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones index futures down by 0.47%, Nasdaq 100 index futures down by 0.54%, and S&P 500 index futures down by 0.49% [1] Group 2 - International oil prices have been rising, with WTI crude oil increasing by over 3.7% to $91.4 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rising by over 4%, approaching $100 per barrel [3] - An explosion occurred at the Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, on March 23, which was reportedly caused by a malfunction in industrial heating equipment. The explosion was accompanied by loud noises and thick black smoke, prompting local authorities to issue a shelter-in-place order and traffic controls around highways 82 and 87 [5] - The refinery has a processing capacity of approximately 400,000 barrels per day, and initial assessments indicate that the impact of the incident is localized, with no large-scale production stoppages or supply disruptions reported [5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to keep international oil prices at high levels, as indicated by Jin Lian Chuang's analysis [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the steel industry, including weekly market reviews, forecasts for the black market, and detailed data on various steel - related products [12][14][16]. - **成材**: Driven by raw materials, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The cost has some support, and in the long - term, downstream demand should be focused on [12][13]. - **铁矿石**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. Although the short - term supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is recommended to operate within a range and sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. - **煤焦**: The fundamental situation is still supply - strong and demand - weak, but overseas geopolitical conflicts have affected the market sentiment, causing the price to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to wait and see [15]. - **铁合金**: The demand is rising slightly, and the price is running strongly. Manganese silicon is affected by high inventory, while ferrosilicon is in a tight balance [16]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 01 周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report presents the closing prices and price changes of futures and spot prices of various steel - related products from March 13 to March 20, 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and scrap steel [8]. 02 本周黑色行情预判 成材 - **Logic**: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased by 2.61 percentage points, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 1.29 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 6.13 percentage points. The cost fundamentals have little change, and the raw material price increase provides cost support. The steel price follows the raw material fluctuations in the short - term, and downstream demand should be focused on in the long - term [13]. - **View**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly [13]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [13]. 铁矿石 - **Logic**: The macro - drive is weak. The price is in a high - level oscillation due to concerns about limited domestic spot trade liquidity, a decrease in short - term domestic supply intensity, an increase in demand, and an increase in costs caused by the Middle East conflict. The long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [14]. - **View**: The short - term supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, but the price is not determined by fundamentals. It is recommended to operate within a range and sell out - of - the money call options. The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to 790 - 825 yuan/ton for the 05 contract of Dalian iron ore futures [14]. - **Later Concerns**: Middle East war conflicts, supply - side stability, and long - term agreement negotiation results [14]. 煤焦 - **Logic**: The coking coal futures price fluctuated weakly last week but rose sharply on Friday night. The driving force is mainly the energy concerns caused by the Middle East conflict, and the fundamental upward drive is limited. The supply is still in a high - production and high - import pattern, and the demand is in the process of recovery, showing a weak balance of supply - strong and demand - weak [15]. - **View**: The price fluctuates sharply in the short - term. It is advisable to control risks and wait and see [15]. - **Later Concerns**: Linkage with the energy - chemical sector, production rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and changes in imported coal customs clearance [15]. 铁合金 - **Logic**: Overseas, the US core PCE data in January strengthened inflation concerns. Domestically, the economic data from January to February was positive. The alloy sector performed relatively strongly. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon increased. The demand for both increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased, while that of ferrosilicon decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon is strongly supported [16]. - **View**: The upward space of silicon manganese price is restricted by high inventory, but it will still fluctuate strongly. Ferrosilicon is in a tight balance and will fluctuate slightly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and steel mill profits [16]. - **Later Concerns**: Domestic macro - policies, downstream demand recovery, steel mill profits, and production conditions [16]. 03 品种数据 成材 - **Rebar**: - **Production and Apparent Demand**: The weekly production was 203.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.88 tons. The apparent demand was 208.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.28 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.90 tons [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 653.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.25 tons. The steel mill inventory was 236.20 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.16 tons. The total inventory was 889.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.41 tons [27]. - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 118 yuan; for May, it was 107 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 49 yuan; for October, it was 79 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 109 yuan [41]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: - **Production and Apparent Demand**: The weekly production was 300.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.12 tons. The apparent demand was 310.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.15 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.14 tons [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 376.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.28 tons. The steel mill inventory was 84.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89 tons. The total inventory was 461.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.30 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51.39 tons [38]. - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 14 yuan; for May, it was - 17 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan; for October, it was - 23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 12 yuan [49]. 铁矿石 - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: The total inventory was 17098.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89.12 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2635.91 tons. The Australian ore inventory was 8323.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2267.72 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5073.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.13 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 659.2 tons. The trade ore inventory was 11499.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 89.57 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1631.50 tons. The daily port dredging volume was 320.97 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 3.07 tons and a year - on - year increase of 12.39 tons [52]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: The inventory was 9034.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.96 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 110.59 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 32.13, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 and a year - on - year increase of 0.09. The daily consumption was 281.15 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 9.20 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.24 tons. The daily iron - water production was 228.15 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 6.95 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.13 tons [62]. - **247 Steel Mills'开工率/盈利率**: The blast furnace opening rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.04 percentage points. The profitability rate was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83 percentage points [66]. - **Global Shipment (19 Ports)**: The total global shipment was 3144.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 tons and a year - on - year increase of 59.6 tons. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 2458.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 56.9 tons. The non - mainstream shipment was 686.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.9 tons and a year - on - year increase of 116.5 tons [88]. 煤焦 - **Coke Inventory**: The total inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 981.53 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.37 tons. The independent coking enterprise inventory was 94.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.2 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 40.8 tons. The 247 steel mills' inventory was 688.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.4 tons. The 4 - port inventory was 199.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.75 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 8.97 tons [113]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2630.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.42 tons. The independent coking enterprise inventory was 1005.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35.6 tons and a year - on - year increase of 182.8 tons. The 247 steel mills' inventory was 773.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.1 tons. The 5 - port inventory was 264.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 111.47 tons. The 314 coal - washing plants' inventory was 332.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.9 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.75 tons. The 523 coking coal mines' inventory was 254.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 118.6 tons [120][121]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 38 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 65 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.8 percentage points. The daily coke production of independent coking enterprises was 64.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 tons. The daily refined coal production of 523 coking coal mines was 79.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.1 tons. The daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.41 tons [125][131][132]. 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36%, South Africa) at Tianjin Port on March 20 was 40.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 4.5 yuan. The spot price of silicon manganese (Inner Mongolia 6517) was 6050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon (Inner Mongolia 72) was 5600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan [154]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: The total port inventory in the week of March 13 was 470.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 69 tons. The inventory at Tianjin Port was 341.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 22.3 tons. The inventory at Qinzhou Port was 128.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46.7 tons [156]. - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon manganese (187 independent enterprises) was 196210 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1470 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6405 tons. The weekly production of ferrosilicon (136 independent enterprises) was 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 tons [159][162]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon manganese (five major steel types) was 119733 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3073 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5526 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon (five major steel types) was 19416.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 552 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 631 tons [165]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon manganese (63 independent enterprises) on March 20 was 384800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 251700 tons. The inventory of ferrosilicon (60 independent enterprises) on March 20 was 59400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1770 tons and a year - on - year

Supply and Demand - Construction activity shows resilience, with building start rates performing reasonably well despite seasonal variations[2] - Industrial production remains strong, with overall industrial operating rates at historical highs for the lunar period[2] - Demand for construction materials is higher than the same period in 2025, indicating signs of stabilization in the construction sector[3] Commodity Prices - International commodity prices are influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with oil prices continuing to rise and gold prices experiencing significant fluctuations[4] - Domestic industrial product prices are showing a strong upward trend, with notable increases in rebar and coal prices[4] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in first-tier cities show positive year-on-year growth, with a 61.1% increase in average transaction area compared to the previous lunar period[5] - Second-hand housing transactions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have also performed well, with year-on-year increases of 7% and 17% respectively[5] Export Trends - South Korea's AI product exports continue to show strong growth, which may benefit China's exports due to rising energy prices[6] - Overall, China's export volume is expected to decline significantly in March, influenced by global oil price increases[6] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with the R007 rate at 1.48% and DR007 at 1.42% as of March 20[73] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 35.3 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[75] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[79]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices, highlighting a drop below $4,350 per ounce, with a current price of $4,337.97 per ounce, marking a daily decrease of 3.54% [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On March 23, spot gold prices fell to $4,337.97 per ounce, down 3.54% from the previous day [1][2]. - The London gold (spot gold) CFD showed a price of $4,337.97, reflecting a decrease of $159.01 or 3.54% [2]. - The gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange experienced a significant weekly decline of 9.62%, the largest drop in 15 years, while silver futures fell by 14.36% [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - Rising international oil prices have reignited concerns about global inflation, contributing to an increase in the dollar index and prompting central banks worldwide to adopt hawkish stances [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, experiencing its third consecutive week of decline [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA market first rose and then fell with an average price increase. Due to the escalation of geopolitical situation, the crude oil market rose, and the PTA spot market soared in the morning under the cost advantage. However, the buying sentiment in the spot market was poor, downstream resisted the high PTA price, the estimated PTA output next week would rise, and the PTA market still had an oversupply situation, causing the PTA market to decline. The Asian PX market is in a short - term situation caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked the transportation of 20% of the world's petroleum liquids and nearly 80% of petrochemical products shipped to Asia, leading to a sharp rise in PX spot prices. If the Middle - East exports cannot resume in the near future, the Asian polyester industry chain will face a severe production decline risk in April due to the double shortage of PX and MEG [2] - The ethylene glycol market is in chaos due to the tense Middle - East situation. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their loads. Asian naphtha cracking units have large - scale production cuts and shutdowns, and domestic refinery ethylene glycol units have risen sharply due to the reduction of raw materials [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: INE crude oil rose from 735.4 yuan/barrel on March 18, 2026, to 814.9 yuan/barrel on March 19, 2026, an increase of 79.5 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1445.8 yuan/ton to 912.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 533.73 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2705 to 1.1540, a decrease of 0.1165 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 1250 to 1264, an increase of 14. The PX - naphtha spread rose from 218 to 225, an increase of 7 [2] - **PTA**: The PTA main futures price rose from 6790 yuan/ton to 6834 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price rose from 6805 yuan/ton to 6885 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 207.1 yuan/ton to 168.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.1 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreased from 287.1 yuan/ton to 252.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35.1 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from (88) to (79), an increase of 9. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 143452 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price rose from 4849 yuan/ton to 5220 yuan/ton, an increase of 371 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha decreased from (407.79) to (407.98), a decrease of 0.2. The MEG domestic price rose from 4807 to 5143, an increase of 336. The main basis decreased from - 80 to - 86, a decrease of 6 [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F rose from 9105 to 9130, an increase of 25. POY cash flow decreased from 426 to 270, a decrease of 156. FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 9445. FDY cash flow decreased from 266 to 85, a decrease of 181. DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 10640. DTY cash flow decreased from 761 to 580, a decrease of 181. The long - filament sales rate increased from 17% to 18%, an increase of 1%. 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 8335 to 8380, an increase of 45. The polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 6 to (130), a decrease of 136. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 49% to 53%, an increase of 4%. The semi - bright chip decreased from 7480 to 7470, a decrease of 10. The chip cash flow decreased from (299) to (490), a decrease of 191. The chip sales rate increased from 15% to 42%, an increase of 27% [2] 2. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 80.34%. PTA start - up rate rose from 75.96% to 76.69%, an increase of 0.73%. MEG start - up rate remained unchanged at 52.36%. The polyester load remained unchanged at 85.83% [2] 3. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was shut down for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was operating at 20 - 50% load has returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China that was under maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2604 fluctuated weakly, closing at 9,968 yuan/ton. The market digested the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on crude oil supply, combined with the unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory, leading to a correction in international oil prices during the day. In terms of domestic supply and demand, the 600,000 - ton Gulei plant was shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. The production of styrene decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79%. The downstream operating rates of styrene varied, with the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreasing by 1.55% to 261,100 tons. The styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, the East China port inventory increased by 3.83% to 1.625 million tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 27.45% to 370,000 tons. The domestic spring maintenance expectation was gradually realized, but the restart of the 670,000 - ton faulty plant of Jingbo weakened the impact of maintenance, and the styrene capacity utilization rate was expected to decline slightly. In the short term, there was limited room for the downstream operating rate to continue to rise, but the downstream inventory continued to be depleted and the profit continued to recover, without forming a negative feedback on styrene. The visible inventory was depleted smoothly, and the inventory was expected to remain at a neutral level. Currently, there was still great uncertainty in the Middle East situation, and EB2604 was expected to fluctuate due to news - related disturbances in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for styrene was 9,968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 236 yuan. The trading volume was 212,621 less. The long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 42,538 hands, the short position decreased by 31,766 hands, and the net long position decreased by 10,772 hands. The 3 - month contract closing price was 10,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 294 yuan. The futures open interest decreased by 20,670 hands, and the warehouse receipt quantity was 0 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 10,025 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in South China, Northeast, North, and East China were 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,400 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 100 yuan/ton, 140 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 636 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton. The FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 58 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 397 cents/gallon, the CIF price in Taiwan was 1,086.67 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in Rotterdam was 1,085 US dollars/ton. The market prices of pure benzene in South China, East China, and North China were 7,800 yuan/ton, 8,285 yuan/ton, and 8,085 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0 yuan/ton, 115 yuan/ton, and 200 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The overall production of Chinese styrene plants from March 6th to 12th was 360,100 tons, a decrease of 3.12% month - on - month; the plant capacity utilization rate was 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32% month - on - month. The national inventory of styrene decreased by 210 tons, and the total inventory in the East China main port was 162,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 67.4%, 57.78%, 51.7%, 38.3%, and 75.65% respectively, with changes of - 0.2%, - 2.1%, + 0.2%, no data, and - 1.76% [2] Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, the consumption of styrene downstream products EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 1.55% to 261,100 tons. As of March 12th, the styrene factory inventory was 191,900 tons, a decrease of 7.70% compared with last week. As of March 16th, the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 162,500 tons, an increase of 3.83% compared with last week; the inventory in South China ports was 370,000 tons, a decrease of 27.45% [2] Data - As of March 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 73.28 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 1,389.92 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the methanol market is "bullish and volatile", with a unilateral trading strategy of "bullish" and an arbitrage strategy of "taking profit and expanding the profit spread" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts, combined with the improvement of fundamental supply and demand, and the price rose strongly, showing a clear pattern of overall bullish operation. The continuous fermentation of the Middle - East situation led to the expectation of reduced import supply, which was the core support for market sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic supply was stable, imports decreased significantly, downstream demand recovered steadily, and inventories in ports and inland areas both decreased, optimizing the supply - demand pattern and providing strong support for prices [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the overall methanol supply showed a pattern of a slight contraction in domestic production and a significant decline in imports, with the overall supply scale decreasing compared to the previous week. On the domestic production side, the overall operating load of methanol plants was basically flat, and the weekly output decreased slightly. The number of newly - overhauled plants was limited this week, and only a small number of previously shut - down plants resumed production. The production capacity loss caused by overhauls was still greater than the incremental production from resumptions. The overall operating level of the industry remained relatively stable. The operating load of coal - to - methanol plants fluctuated minimally, and although the operations of gas - based and coke - oven - gas - based processes were slightly adjusted, they did not have a significant impact on the overall supply. The supply of domestic goods remained stable. On the import side, it was the core change in the supply side this week. Affected by the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the volume of imported methanol arriving at ports decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at coastal ports dropped sharply, directly driving the port inventory into a de - stocking channel, which was the main driver for the tightening of the coastal market supply. Looking ahead, next week, the number of domestic plants planned to resume production is more than that of newly - overhauled plants, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly. Although there is an expectation of a marginal increase in the import arrival volume, it will still be at a relatively low level overall, and it is difficult for the supply side to see a significant increase. Attention should be paid to the long - term impact of the geopolitical situation on the arrival rhythm of imported goods [2] Demand - This week, the methanol demand side showed a pattern of stable demand from major consumers and accelerated recovery of traditional downstream industries, with the overall consumption scale increasing compared to the previous week, providing effective support for the market. The operating load of the methanol - to - olefins industry, the major downstream sector, remained stable overall. Although the consumption volume decreased slightly due to the short - term overhaul of individual plants, the industry as a whole operated smoothly, and the demand for externally - purchased methanol remained rigid. At the same time, the prices of downstream polyolefins also rose significantly, driving a significant recovery in the profits of the MTO industry and providing strong support for the rigid consumption of methanol, without an obvious contraction in demand. Traditional downstream industries became the core incremental demand. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production continued to advance, and the operating loads of various sub - sectors increased to varying degrees. Among them, the operating rate of the formaldehyde industry increased significantly, and the operations of industries such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and methane chloride also improved steadily, driving the continuous release of rigid demand for methanol, and the consumption volume of traditional downstream industries increased significantly compared to the previous week. However, after the rapid increase in methanol prices, some downstream industries' acceptance of high - priced raw materials decreased, and their willingness to chase high - price purchases was weak, mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand. The subsequent rhythm of demand release still needs to be monitored in terms of the progress of downstream resumption of work and cost transmission [3] Inventory - This week, the overall methanol inventory showed a pattern of de - stocking in both ports and inland areas, with the inventory level decreasing significantly compared to the previous week, further highlighting the tight supply - demand balance. Port inventory was the core change this week. The coastal methanol inventory decreased significantly and officially entered the de - stocking channel. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the volume of imported ships arriving at ports decreased significantly, and the supply replenishment was lower than expected. At the same time, with the advancement of downstream resumption of work and production, the提货 rhythm of port warehouses accelerated significantly. Core warehouses in East and South China all showed de - stocking trends, especially in the main warehouses in Jiangsu. The scale of available and tradable goods in ports also decreased, providing strong support for spot prices. The inventory of inland production enterprises also decreased compared to the previous week, and the de - stocking performance in the main production area of Northwest China was particularly obvious. Upstream enterprises actively urged the delivery of goods, and combined with the release of external procurement demand for olefins in the region, the factory inventory continued to decrease, and the overall inventory pressure was relieved. Only in some regions, affected by the downstream resistance to high prices, the volume of pending orders decreased slightly. Looking ahead, although the import arrival volume is expected to increase marginally next week, the overall arrival scale will still be low. Coupled with the continuous recovery of downstream demand, the methanol inventory is expected to continue the de - stocking trend. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of arrival volume and changes in the downstream提货 rhythm [4] Methanol Profit - This week, the profit on the methanol production side recovered significantly, and the profit of the downstream MTO industry even achieved a fundamental reversal, significantly improving the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain. In terms of methanol's own profitability, driven by the geopolitical conflict, the central price of methanol increased significantly, while the price of raw material steam coal continued to decline weakly, and the cost - side pressure continued to ease. The profitability of all process routes improved significantly. Among them, coal - to - methanol turned from loss to profit, the profit scale of coke - oven - gas - based methanol expanded significantly, and the loss of natural - gas - based methanol also narrowed significantly. The overall production and operation pressure of the industry was greatly relieved. In terms of downstream MTO profit, the industry's profitability achieved a leap from deep losses to significant profits. Although the methanol price continued to rise, the prices of downstream polyolefin products were driven by the overall upward movement of the energy - chemical sector, and the price increase far exceeded that of methanol. The cost - side pressure was smoothly transmitted downstream, and the MTO production profit recovered significantly. The improvement in profitability also supported the stable operation of industry plants, ensuring the rigid demand for methanol and forming a positive cycle in the industrial chain. In the future, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the transmission of high methanol prices to downstream costs and the marginal impact of polyolefin price fluctuations on MTO profits [5] Politics - The US military launched an air strike on Iranian facilities. The US military attacked the defense facilities on Iran's Kharg Island, where more than 15 explosions occurred, but the oil infrastructure was not damaged, and the air - defense system restarted about an hour later. The situation on Kharg Island was under control. Iran stated that the island's oil exports were normal, and the important oil infrastructure was not damaged. Trump said that the conditions were not good enough, and he was not ready to reach an agreement with Iran at present. According to the New York Post, Iran's foreign minister said that all countries except the US and Israel were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firmly believed that if Iran lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, it would lose the war [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The Asian PX market is in a short - term situation caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked the transportation of 20% of the world's oil liquids and nearly 80% of petrochemical products to Asia, leading to a sharp rise in PX spot prices. PTA factories have faced concentrated force majeure. If Middle - East exports do not resume soon, the Asian polyester industry chain may face a serious production decline risk in April due to the dual shortage of PX and MEG [2]. - The ethylene glycol market is also affected by the tense Middle - East situation. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their loads. Asian naphtha cracking units have significantly reduced production or shut down, and domestic refinery ethylene glycol units have seen a sharp increase due to reduced raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: INE crude oil price rose from 722.3 yuan/barrel on 2026/3/12 to 750.8 yuan/barrel on 2026/3/13, with a change of 28.50 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1749.0 yuan/ton to 1477.9 yuan/ton, a change of - 271.11 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3332 to 1.2709, a change of - 0.0623 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX decreased from 1305 to 1277, a change of - 28. PX - naphtha spread decreased from 430 to 218, a change of - 212 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 decreased from 6998 yuan/ton to 6934 yuan/ton, a change of - 64.0 yuan/ton. The PTA现货价格 decreased from 7030 to 6920, a change of - 110.0 yuan/ton. The现货加工费 increased from 231.1 yuan/ton to 247.2 yuan/ton, a change of 16.1 yuan/ton. The盘面加工费 increased from 204.1 yuan/ton to 281.2 yuan/ton, a change of 77.1 yuan/ton. The主力基差 decreased from (22) to (35), a change of - 13.0. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 143618 to 143458, a change of - 160 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 increased from 4653 yuan/ton to 4729 yuan/ton, a change of 76.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha increased from (377.57) to (372.76), a change of 4.8. The MEG内盘 decreased from 4715 to 4672, a change of - 43.0. The主力基差 increased from - 85 to - 65, a change of 20.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain开工情况 - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 80.34%. PTA开工率 decreased from 77.57% to 75.91%, a change of - 1.66%. MEG开工率 decreased from 53.88% to 53.73%, a change of - 0.15%. The聚酯负荷 decreased from 84.90% to 84.49%, a change of - 0.41% [2]. 3.3 Product Prices and Cash Flows - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F increased from 9240 to 9250, a change of 10.0. POY现金流 increased from 400 to 518, a change of 118.0. FDY150D/96F decreased from 9460 to 9425, a change of - 35.0. FDY现金流 increased from 120 to 193, a change of 73.0. DTY150D/48F decreased from 10690 to 10550, a change of - 140.0. DTY现金流 decreased from 650 to 618, a change of - 32.0. The长丝产销 increased from 10% to 15%, a change of 5% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 8480 to 8390, a change of - 90. The涤短现金流 increased from (10) to 8, a change of 18.0. The短纤产销 decreased from 57% to 20%, a change of - 37% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The半光切片 decreased from 7650 to 7600, a change of - 50.0. The切片现金流 increased from (290) to (232), a change of 58.0. The切片产销 remained unchanged at 10% [2]. 3.4装置检修动态 - An East - China 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit that stopped for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal operation. An East - China 3.6 - million - ton PTA unit that was operating at 50% capacity has also returned to normal. A South - China 1.25 - million - ton PTA unit that was under maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal [3].