中东地缘冲突
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特朗普首次承认,对伊朗的军事打击导致油价上升,带来经济损失;面对其国内压力,他需给出合理解释
中国能源报· 2026-03-04 11:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic implications of the recent military actions by the United States against Iran, highlighting the potential rise in oil prices and the impact on the stock market, as acknowledged by President Trump for the first time [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Military Actions - President Trump admitted that the military actions against Iran could lead to an increase in oil prices, marking his first acknowledgment of the economic consequences for Americans [4]. - The Washington Post reported that this military action is the largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, contributing to rising oil prices and a decline in the stock market [6]. - Trump expressed confidence that oil prices would eventually decrease after the conflict, potentially falling even lower than previous levels [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The military conflict has led to a significant drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.83%, the S&P 500 down by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.02% [7]. - On the same day, international oil prices continued to rise, with light crude oil futures for April delivery closing at $74.56 per barrel, an increase of 4.67%, and Brent crude oil futures for May delivery closing at $81.40 per barrel, up by 4.71% [7]. Group 3: Broader Geopolitical Context - The article notes that the conflict has escalated, with increasing risks of regional instability and investor panic, as U.S. military casualties and the plight of American citizens in the Middle East become more pronounced [7]. - German Chancellor Merkel assessed the situation more seriously, indicating that the conflict would harm the economy, affecting both oil and natural gas prices [6].
化工日报-20260304
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 11:01
| Millio | 軍校期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年03月04日 | | 丙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | ★☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆☆ | РХ | ★☆★ | | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 瓶片 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ★☆★ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 玻璃 | な女女 | | | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力 ...
格林期货早盘提示:白糖,红枣,橡胶系-20260304
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 03:12
更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 4 日星期三 研究员:李方磊 从业资格:F03104461 交易咨询资格:Z0021311 联系方式:19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日 | SR605 | 合约收盘价 | 5321 | 元/吨,日跌幅 | 0.45%,夜盘收 | 5306 | 元/吨;SR609 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 5332 | 元/吨,日跌幅 | 0.39%,夜盘收 | 5321 | 元/吨。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 | 5314 | 元/吨,下跌 | 2 | 元/吨;广西制糖集团报价区间 | | | | | | | | | | | 5310~5 ...
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260303
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 10:04
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9464 | 105 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2310 | 15 | | | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 54 | 25 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -59 | 6 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 272868 | 4058 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 888198 | -21060 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -9191 | 7327 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -213146 | 12462 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 1000 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 697.2 | 9.1 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5839 | -79 ...
白银突然急跌4%,黄金跳水
21世纪经济报道· 2026-03-03 06:27
记者丨江佩霞 编辑丨曾静娇 受中东地缘冲突持续升级影响,全球大宗商品市场剧烈波动。 3月3日午后,黄金白银双双跳水,截至发稿,现货白银向下跌破86美元/盎司,日内下跌 4.43%,伦敦黄金现货跌0.51%,跌破5300美元/盎司。 黄金白银的跳水,或许跟美元指数有关,2日晚美元指数大涨超1%,截至3月3日14:10,美元 指数继续上涨,逼近99关口。 当美元指数上涨(美元升值)时,白银价格往往下跌,白银在国际市场上以美元计价。 美元 升值意味着非美元货币购买力下降,白银对于持有非美元货币的投资者而言变得更贵,从而抑 制需求,导致银价下跌。 面对市场的狂热情绪,监管机构迅速出手。3月2日晚间,上海期货交易所(含上期能源)、郑 州商品交易所、大连商品交易所集体发布风险提示,称近期中东局势复杂多变,请各有关单位 做好风险防范工作。 随着近期金价上涨,国内金饰克价也在走高,3月3日,周生生足金饰品报价1643元/克,较前 一日1622元/克涨21元;老庙黄金足金饰品报价1662元/克,较前一日1620元/克涨42元。 越声投研:热门题材公司线索延伸阅读 (声明:文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自 ...
尿素:短期步入震荡格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 02:10
| | | 2026 年 03 月 03 日 商 品 研 究 尿素:短期步入震荡格局 | 【基本面跟踪】 | | --- | 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | (元/吨) | 1,817 | 1,847 | -30 207014 | | | | 结算价 | (元/吨) | 1,826 | 1,838 | -12 | | | | 成交量 | (手) | 343,555 | 136,541 | | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 | (手) | 262,781 | 259,877 | 2904 | | | | 仓单数量 | (吨) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | (万元) | 1,255,000 | 501,871 | 753128 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 7 3 | 1 3 | 6 0 0 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | (运费约100元/吨) | -97 | -127 | 3 ...
金信期货日刊-20260226
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-26 00:48
金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 6 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD 沪银期货合约价格上涨,后续怎么看? 沪银短期高波动震荡,中期逢低做多,不追高。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2月25日沪银主力合约高开高走,收盘涨幅超4.57%, 主因是春节期间外盘受中东地缘冲突与美联储降息预期推动大涨,国内市场节后集中补涨,资金涌入、成交 量显著放大 。 短期来看,沪银将跟随伦敦银在70-100美元/盎司区间宽幅震荡,对应国内价格核心支撑在19000元/千克, 强压力区25000元/千克。 不盲目追高,需警惕地缘情绪降温或美元反弹引发的快速回调,操作以短线高抛低吸、轻仓带止损为主。 中期逻辑仍偏多,核心支撑源于白银供需缺口持续存在,光伏、AI服务器等工业需求回暖,以及美联储降息 预期下实际利率下行的宏观利好。再分批布局多单,严格控制仓位与杠杆风险。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES ...
苯乙烯月报:纯苯供应端承压,苯乙烯需求回暖-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 15:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the OPEC meeting's production - increase decision during the National Day holiday and the rising probability of a Fed rate cut, styrene prices are still falling. The BZN spread and the non - integrated EB unit profit are decreasing, with the overall valuation being moderately high. - In the context of a wide supply of pure benzene, styrene production is on the rise. Although the seasonal peak season is approaching and the downstream three - S production starts to rebound slightly, due to the reality of weak supply and demand, both factory and port inventories are significantly increasing, providing weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap of pure benzene will decrease, while that of styrene will improve. [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy**: During the National Day holiday, the OPEC meeting's production - increase decision was implemented, and the probability of a Fed rate cut increased. - **Valuation**: Styrene showed a monthly decline (spot > cost > futures), the basis weakened, the BZN spread weakened, and the non - integrated EB unit profit weakened. - **Cost**: The price of pure benzene in East China dropped by 2.11% this month, with a moderately high pure benzene operating rate. In August, China's pure benzene imports were 441200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.13% and a year - on - year increase of 8.38%, mainly from the Middle East. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate was 73.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%, a year - on - year increase of 3.98%, and a decrease of 10.73% compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter and many maintenance operations in September, with the largest production pressure for the whole year in the fourth quarter. - **Import and Export**: In August, EB imports were 269200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.77% and a year - on - year increase of 29.29%. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has subsided, and imports have rebounded. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of the downstream three - S was 45.44%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03%. The PS operating rate was 62.50%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 12.71%. The EPS operating rate was 61.50%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 11.52%. The ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% and a year - on - year increase of 8.50%. As the seasonal peak season approaches, the operating rate is oscillating upwards from a low level. - **Inventory**: The in - factory EB inventory was 209000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.14% and a year - on - year increase of 22.80%. The EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 201900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.39% and a year - on - year increase of 347.67%. The significant increase in port inventory has severely suppressed the futures price. - **Next - Month Forecast**: For styrene (EB2511), the reference oscillation range is (6700 - 7000). - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions. [11][12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the styrene futures and spot market, including the spot price, main contract price, basis, active contract trading volume, open interest, and various spreads. However, no specific analysis or data summaries are provided in the text part of this section. [15][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The report shows charts of the styrene port inventory and factory inventory, but no detailed data analysis is provided. - **Profit**: Styrene profit is oscillating at a low level. The production process of styrene mainly consists of 85% ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% POSM, and 3% C8 extraction. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity. [40][43][45] 3.4 Cost Side - **Supply - Demand of Pure Benzene and Its Downstream**: In 2025, the total planned production capacity of pure benzene is 228, and that of its downstream (including styrene) is 311. The downstream demand for pure benzene is 454.9, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 226.9. - **BZN Spread**: The BZN spread continues to oscillate downward. - **Pure Benzene Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate is moderately high. - **Inventory of Caprolactam Factories**: The inventory of caprolactam factories is oscillating at a high level. [50][56][64] 3.5 Supply Side - **Production Gap**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the styrene shortage will intensify, which may support prices. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 242, and that of its downstream is 419.8. The downstream demand for styrene is 341.73, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 99.73. - **Maintenance and Production**: There were many maintenance operations in September, and the production volume has declined from the same - period high. [95][97][105] 3.6 Demand Side - **EPS and PS**: The operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded with profits. - **ABS**: The ABS operating rate has rebounded with profits. - **Home Appliance Production**: The production of refrigerators and washing machines shows certain trends. The production of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate. [117][125][144]
正信期货股指期货周报:股指周报:美国关税豁免本周到期,不确定性引发市场避险-20250707
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 06:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption this week brings uncertainty. The impact of tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and it's necessary to guard against the negative emotional impact of Trump's extreme pressure. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and the market expects positive signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - In the medium - term, real estate sales are seasonally rising at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and seasonally warming up in summer. Consumption is boosted by fiscal subsidies, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export is ending, with a possible decline in the third quarter. Domestic anti - involution policies may reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a rebound in prices [4]. - Domestically, liquidity is generally loose, while overseas, it is marginally tightening. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from oversold levels. The domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, but the pressure of share unlocks remains [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral to high level, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The stock market may rise in an oscillating manner in the third quarter. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures after sharp declines due to tariff policy shocks this week. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: Last week, US stocks led the rise, and the Hang Seng Technology Index led the decline. The performance order is Nasdaq > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > Shanghai Composite Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > German Stock Market > Nikkei 225 > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Technology [8]. - **Industry Performance**: Steel led the rise, and comprehensive finance led the decline. The order is Steel > Bank > Building Materials > Medicine... > Transportation > Comprehensive > Computer > Comprehensive Finance [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.22%, 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.05% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH significantly narrowing. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.05%, - 0.23%, - 0.27%, and - 0.31% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.05%, - 0.31%, - 0.44%, and - 0.48% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly widening [15][16]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 19.71 billion yuan, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 302.83 billion yuan, an increase of 13.89 billion yuan from last week, and the share was 199.171 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.48 billion shares from last week [25]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first week of July, equity financing was 3.67 billion yuan, with 1 company. Among them, IPO financing was 640 million yuan, private placement was 0 yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.03 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing declined significantly. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 90.83 billion yuan, an increase of 33.28 billion yuan from the previous week, remaining at the second - highest level this year [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 202.75 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase of 65.22 billion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. After the end of the quarter, the open - market operations recovered liquidity. MLF had a net injection for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral [30]. - **Money Demand**: Last week, the net money demand for national debt was 19.993 billion yuan, for local debt was 4.361 billion yuan, and for other bonds was 34.787 billion yuan. The total net money demand in the bond market was 59.141 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [33]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 27.4bp, - 9.9bp, and - 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.31%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 5.9bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 8.1bp to 1.59%. The overall fund price was oscillating at a low level [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yield curve flattened. The central bank's liquidity recovery in the open market made the short - end stronger, and the credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 4th, the US 10 - year bond rate increased by 6.0bp to 4.35%, the inflation expectation increased by 4.0bp to 2.33%, and the real interest rate increased by 2.00bp to 2.02%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 6.40bp to - 270.78bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 3rd, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally recovered to 3.329 million square meters, but was still at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales seasonally declined to the lowest level in the past seven years. The overall real estate market sales were weak, and more incremental policies were expected [46]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of July 4th, the subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained high, with a daily average of 83.58 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 32.5% increase compared to the same period in 2021. The service industry's economic activity seasonally recovered in summer. The Baidu Hundred - City Traffic Congestion Delay Index remained flat compared to last week, at a neutral level in the past three years [50]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate declined across the board. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased by 0.54%, that of asphalt increased by 0.2%, that of cement clinker enterprises decreased by 6.7%, and that of coke enterprises decreased by 0.18%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.45% compared to last week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: Both goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels. The number of civil aviation flights for summer tourism consumption increased strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, with limited growth, and there was a risk of a second seasonal decline from July to August [57]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks continued. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, it was necessary to guard against the risk of a second decline due to renewed trade frictions after the expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption [60]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US May non - farm payrolls report slightly exceeded expectations, but the structure implied a cooling signal. The US non - farm employment showed certain resilience, and the service industry PMI rebounded unexpectedly. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in 2025 was reduced to 2 times, with a cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a rate cut in July dropped to 4.7% [62][66]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium last week was 3.35%, a 0.06% decrease from last week, at the 68.8% percentile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.24%, a 0.21% decrease from last week, at the 24.3% percentile, indicating a low level of foreign - capital attractiveness. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 79.9%, 72.9%, 78.2%, and 60.3% percentiles in the past five years respectively, and the attractiveness of each index's valuation decreased marginally [69][74]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal rules, the stock market is in a seasonally oscillating and rising period with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. In general, the market is likely to rise in July. Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on pullbacks, short - term shorting on sharp rises of IF and IH, and medium - term long - term on sharp declines. This week, the market is greatly disturbed by the uncertainty of US tariff policies. If there are negative impacts, pay attention to going long on the growth style on sharp declines [77]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week's financial calendar includes China's June CPI and PPI data, and attention should be paid to whether prices have stabilized and rebounded. Overseas markets should focus on the US Treasury auctions and the progress of the Trump administration's tariff policy negotiations with other countries [79]
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250703
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 11:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. The short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the logic of the Fed's rate - cut is brewing. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently. [5] - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%. International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed certain changes. For example, Comex gold rose 0.56% compared to the previous day. [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but economic recession and geopolitical risks remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed's rate - cut logic is brewing. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump is disappointed with the US - Japan trade negotiation and threatens to raise tariffs. [1] - **Monetary**: Powell said the Fed needs more data before cutting rates, not ruling out action in July. Market expects the next rate - cut in September, with a total rate - cut space of about 75 basis points in 2025. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D also changed. For example, Comex silver rose 1.50% compared to the previous day. [1][6] - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Capital and inventory factors affect the silver market. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 188.42 billion US dollars to 67134.58 billion US dollars. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. showed certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI was 4.50%, up 0.65% compared to the previous period. [10][11] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP growth rate decreased, and indicators such as unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and labor participation rate also changed. For example, the annualized year - on - year GDP was 1.90%, down 1.00% compared to the previous period. [11] - **Other Data**: Data on the US Treasury market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, etc. also showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.50%, up 1.21% compared to the previous day. [11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7%. [13]