Report Title - Weekly Report on Oil and Fats: Escalation of Geopolitical Conflicts in the Middle East, Overall Oscillation and Rise in Oil and Fats [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, the biodiesel blending profits of US soybean oil and palm oil have improved significantly, and the demand for oil and fats in the biodiesel sector is expected to increase. Geopolitical factors have also increased shipping costs, raising the cost of oil and fats, making the overall oil and fats market prone to rise and difficult to fall [5][23] - For palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil may continue to reduce production and inventory in February. With a high - base inventory, it may remain at a relatively high level. There is a phased inventory accumulation pressure for domestic palm oil after delayed arrival, but India's large imports and increased biodiesel blending profits are beneficial to palm oil demand [5][23] - For soybean oil, supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy and geopolitical factors driving up the overall oil and fats market, while the domestic supply is sufficient and demand is weak, resulting in a situation of strong external and weak internal market, with the market in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [5][23] - For rapeseed oil, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, it maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation will boost its price. However, if the Middle East war weakens and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the upward pressure on rapeseed oil will become prominent [5][23] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 1. Recent Core Events and Market Review - Reuters expects Malaysia's palm oil to have weak supply and demand in February. The inventory may continue to decrease to 2.63 million tons, a 6.52% month - on - month decrease from January. The production is expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.8% month - on - month decrease, and exports are 1.18 million tons, a 20.8% month - on - month decrease [4][8] - Traders expect India's edible oil imports in February to decrease 1.4% month - on - month to 1.29 million tons, still at a historically high level. Palm oil imports increased 10% month - on - month to 840,000 tons, reaching a six - month high; soybean oil imports increased 8.7% month - on - month to 300,000 tons; and sunflower oil imports decreased 45% month - on - month to 150,000 tons, at a historically low level [4][12] 2. International Market - **POGO Spread**: With the continuous rise of crude oil prices due to the Middle East geopolitical war, the POGO spread has narrowed significantly to negative, and the market expects an increase in palm oil consumption in biodiesel due to improved blending profits. As of March 6, the POGO spread fell to around - $40 [8] - **India's Edible Oil Imports**: There are rumors of large - scale soybean oil cargo cancellations in India. It is expected that India will increase palm oil imports due to the relatively low absolute price of palm oil [12] 3. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons from the previous week. The import profit was in an inverted state, and there were 7 palm oil purchase ships this week. The demand is weak after the festival, and the overall market is affected by geopolitical and biodiesel factors, making the oil and fats market prone to rise [15] - **Soybean Oil**: As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 913,300 tons, a decrease of 31,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.34% decrease. The basis has decreased steadily. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [18] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of February 27, the coastal rapeseed inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 151,000 tons, and the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 271,000 tons, at a slightly low - level historically. The import profit of European rapeseed oil is in an inverted state. The Middle East war has affected transportation, and the rapeseed oil price may continue to oscillate upwards in the short term [21] 4. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances continue, and oil and fats may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [25] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider waiting for high - level anti - arbitrage opportunities for P59 and y59 [25] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [25] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly production, export, and inventory data from 2020 - 2026 [29][30][31] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Covers monthly production, export, and inventory data from 2017 - 2025 [34][35][36] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Involves NOPA US soybean crushing volume, NOPA US soybean oil inventory, Brazilian and Argentine soybean crushing volume and soybean oil inventory data [38][39][41] - **India's Oil and Fats Supply and Demand**: Contains data on India's edible oil consumption, import, and port inventory [47][48][49] - **Domestic Oil and Fats Import Profit**: Shows the import profit data of European rapeseed oil, 24 - degree palm oil [52][53][54] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: Comprises data on soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, and trading volume [57][58][59] - **Domestic Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Includes data on palm oil monthly import, monthly shipment, and weekly trading volume [62][63] - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: Covers data on domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil import, and monthly consumption [64][65][66] - **Domestic Oil and Fats Spot Basis**: Presents the spot basis data of first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic triple - pressed rapeseed oil [71][72][73] - **Domestic Oil and Fats Commercial Inventory**: Includes data on domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oil and fats inventory [76][77][78]