Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in iron ore prices is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen. However, the black sector may face an overall correction, and iron ore prices will follow suit. It is recommended to take profits on long - term contracts after the rebound and pay attention to policy implementation [10][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened lower, rebounded after a slight decline, turned from a loss to a gain, and closed at 798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. Other steel futures also showed different trends, with RB2510 up 1.98%, HC2510 up 2.01%, and SS2509 down 0.12% [7][5] - **Spot Market**: On July 29, the main iron ore foreign market quotes increased by $1.5/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 5 - 15 yuan/ton [9] - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days [9] 2. Future Outlook - **Influence of Policies**: The recent black - sector market is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Iron ore may experience a decline in demand due to steel mill production cuts, and the recent price increase is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen [10][11] - **Supply Side**: Last week, Australia's shipping volume rebounded, and Brazil's shipping volume was basically the same as the previous week. The total shipping volume recovered after a seasonal decline. Currently, the weekly shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is around 27 million tons, and the arrival volume last week dropped to 22.405 million tons. Considering shipping schedules, the arrival volume may fluctuate at this level until mid - August [11] - **Demand Side**: Downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and hot metal production has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profitability has increased, and steel mills are maintaining high - volume production. The subsequent production - cut process is expected to be slow, which will support ore prices [11] - **Short - term Forecast**: The current futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. In the short term, the ore price has rebounded due to Sino - US negotiations and the Politburo meeting. However, considering the reversal of coking coal trends and the ebbing of anti - involution hype, the black sector may face a correction, and ore prices will follow [12] 3. Industry News - On July 29, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was included in the list of central enterprises directly managed by the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. Zhu Huarong was appointed as the Party Secretary and Chairman of China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. [13] - On July 28, Jiangxi Province successfully issued the seventh batch of government bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total scale of 27.255 billion yuan, including 14.743 billion yuan in new special bonds [13] 4. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipping volumes, arrival volumes, inventory, production, and consumption [19][22][23][28][30][34][39][40]