1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows the resumption of production of primary lead, production cuts due to losses in secondary lead, and an increase in the arrival of imported lead. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries has rebounded, but the recovery of terminal consumption is weak, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impacts are suppressing lead prices, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of a price stop - fall. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On March 18, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$45.31 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,550 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan per ton to -15.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,600 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan per ton to -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,875 yuan per ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,975 yuan per ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton. [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,635 yuan per ton and closed at 16,645 yuan per ton, a change of 45 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 54,361 lots, a change of -13,486 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 40,136 lots, a change of -11,026 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,785 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,595 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,590 yuan per ton and closed at 16,585 yuan per ton, a 0.39% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price fell by 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was sluggish. [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 78,000 tons, a change of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 18, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips in the range below 16,500 yuan per ton and conduct sell - hedging close to 16,850 yuan per ton. However, if it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is collectively de - stocking in the near future, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [4]