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新能源及有色金属日报:下游畏跌拒采,现货成交仍然清淡-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:05
市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面:2025-08-20,LME铅现货升水为-41.80美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16600 元/吨,SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -50元/吨至-15.00元/吨,SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75 元/吨至16675元/吨,SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至16575元/吨,SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-50元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至25元/吨,废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -50元/吨至10125元/吨,废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10125元/吨,废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10450 元/吨。 期货方面:2025-08-20,沪铅主力合约开于16825元/吨,收于16725元/吨,较前一交易日变化-100元/吨,全天交易 日成交38671手,较前一交易日变化11416手,全天交易日持仓46776手,手较前一交易日变化-1336手,日内价格震 荡,最高点达到16830元/吨,最低点达到16680元/吨。夜盘方面,沪铅主力合约开于16770元/吨,收于1 ...
有色金属基础周报:美联储降息预期起伏,宏观总体偏好有色金属整体偏强震荡-20250818
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].
铅产业链周度报告-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 11:43
铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 日期:2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅:供应减少逻辑发酵,支撑价格 强弱分析:中性,价格区间:16600-17000元/吨 ◆ 风险点:东南亚等海外消费崩塌,严重影响中国铅酸蓄电池出口。 再生铅开工率处于历史同期低位 沪铅09合约持仓库存比高位 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-01 01-13 01-24 02-04 02-16 02-26 03-10 03-21 04-01 04-12 04-23 05-05 05-16 05-27 06-07 06-18 06-30 07-11 07-22 08-02 08-13 08-26 09-09 09-23 10-08 10-22 11-05 11-19 12-03 12-17 12-31 % 再生铅开工率 2021 ...
市场成交相对清淡,铅价偏弱震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 06:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market shows relatively light trading and the lead price is oscillating weakly. The lead market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain in an oscillating range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.01/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions also changed. The lead refined scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste batteries remained stable [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 14, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 45,616 lots, an increase of 16,679 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 51,370 lots, an increase of 1,946 lots compared to the previous trading day. The night - session closing price decreased by 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, a decrease of 550 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price may remain in an oscillating pattern, and the recommended option strategy is to sell wide straddles [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游补库积极性仍有限,铅价震荡回落-20250814
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak demand season. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,937 lots, down 1,049 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 49,424 lots, down 1,799 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 16,975 yuan/ton and the lowest at 16,865 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,880 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders offered at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 170 - 110 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with limited supply of low - priced goods. In the Hunan region, smelters offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 170 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, but the trading was relatively light. In the Jiangxi region, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or at a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. The lead futures weakened during the day, and some holders near the delivery date stopped offering and preferred to deliver to the warehouse. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases at low prices, and the overall market trading improved limitedly [2] Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:持货商存在挺价情绪,价格维持震荡格局-20250812
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 06:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The lead market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead prices in different regions showed varying changes, with the SMM Shanghai lead spot premium unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price up 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium up 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined-waste price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On August 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,623 lots, up 4,615 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 54,395 lots, down 4,728 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On August 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from the same period last week. As of August 11, the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]
市场成交有所好转,静候需求旺季兑现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:07
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 市场成交有所好转 静候需求旺季兑现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面:2025-08-06,LME铅现货升水为-41.92美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化125元/吨至16725 元/吨,SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-40.00元/吨,SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化100元 /吨至16775元/吨,SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16750元/吨,SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化150元/吨至16750元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至25元/吨,废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至10200元/吨,废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨,废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10450元/吨。 期货方面:2025-08-06,沪铅主力合约开于16750元/吨,收于16855元/吨,较前一交易日变化80元/吨,全天交易日 成交48645手,较前一交易日变化8512手,全天交易日持仓65019手,手较前一交易日变化-7064手,日内价格震荡, 最高点达到16935元/吨,最低点达到16720 ...
铅周报:沪铅或以震荡偏强运行-20250804
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:05
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]
新能源及有色金属日报:铅价回落之际,下游采购积极性有所回升-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] Core Viewpoints - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the operating rates of related enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,500 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 31, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -36.37 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, 10,175 yuan/ton, and 10,525 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On July 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 53,359 lots, an increase of 16,041 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 72,631 lots, an increase of 5,890 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,905 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,710 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,705 yuan/ton and closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted flat to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 150 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quoted premiums continued to decline, with some delivery brand smelters being negotiated to a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton, and traders quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. As the lead price fluctuated weakly, some smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices and maintained firm quotes, while others lowered premiums to sell. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices, and the spot market trading improved, but those with firm prices had difficulty in making transactions [2] Inventory - On July 31, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 73,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of July 31, the LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons, an increase of 125 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游仍以刚需为主,铅价继续震荡-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently has a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, under the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector may not experience a larger decline and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Content Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On July 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 31.80 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead spot premiums and prices in different regions also changed. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16870 yuan/ton, closed at 16890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37318 lots, down 10660 lots from the previous day, and the holding volume was 66741 lots, up 2207 lots from the previous day. During the night session, the closing price was basically flat compared with the afternoon closing price [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply and Demand**: The lead price fluctuated weakly, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs. The transaction in the spot market remained relatively light. In different regions, the quotation premiums of lead suppliers varied, and some smelters had difficulties in high - premium transactions or stopped quoting due to inventory exhaustion [2] - **Inventory**: On July 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 30, the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6025 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: The lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [3]