新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场成交清淡 铅价延续震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-19，LME铅现货升水为-28.21美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-100元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-19，沪铅主力合约开于17225元/吨，收于17250元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交17225手，较前一交易日变化-8860手，全天交易日持仓17250手，手较前一交易日变化-5231手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17265元/吨，最低点达到17170元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 现货成交呈现区域性差异 铅价呈现震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-18，LME铅现货升水为-16.88美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100 元/吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-125元/吨至17200元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至 10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-18，沪铅主力合约开于17365元/吨，收于17230元/吨，较前一交易日变化-125元/吨，全天交易 日成交55068手，较前一交易日变化-19523手，全天交易日持仓69126手，手较前一交易日变化-5459手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-18 交割日过后 铅价出现较大回落 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-17，LME铅现货升水为-23.09美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至17275 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-150 元/吨至17325元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-175元/吨至17275元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-175元/吨至17325元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400 元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-17，沪铅主力合约开于17520元/吨，收于17355元/吨，较前一交易日变化-140元/吨，全天交易 日成交74591手，较前一交易日变化37245手，全天交易日持仓74585手，手较前一交易日变化36168手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到17520元/吨，最 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory and tight ore supply support lead prices, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the decline in battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may cause the price to fall after rising. High - sell and low - buy strategies can be adopted, with the price range between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On November 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$20.89/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,485 yuan/ton, closed at 17,660 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,843 lots, an increase of 24,988 lots, and the holding volume was 50,539 lots, a decrease of 4,568 lots. The night - session closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream battery enterprises mainly took delivery through long - term contracts, and the market trading was fair [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 33,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with last week. As of November 12, the LME lead inventory was 225,225 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute price strategy**: Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy in the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations [3]. - **Option strategy**: Sell wide straddle [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - **Important Information**: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - **Related Information**: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - **Related Information**: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - **Related Information**: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - **Related Information**: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - **Related Information**: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - **Important Information**: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - **Related Information**: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - **Logic Analysis**: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - **Logic Analysis**: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]

2025 年 11 月 12 日 铅：库存大幅增加，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17440 | -0.37% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2056.5 | 0.56% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 30855 | -755 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 9281 | -1026 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 55107 | -3618 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 153641 | 2117 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 25 | 25 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15 | -6.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -45 | 55 | 进口升贴水 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-11 下游以签订长单为主 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-10，LME铅现货升水为-10.74美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至17350元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17325元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至17375元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-10，沪铅主力合约开于17440元/吨，收于17505元/吨，较前一交易日变化85元/吨，全天交易日 成交31610手，较前一交易日变化4404手，全天交易日持仓58725手，手较前一交易日变化-1093手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17535元/吨，最低点达到17440元/吨。 ...

2025 年 11 月 10 日 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17420 | -0.06% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2045 | 0.42% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 27206 | -16966 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10307 | 3259 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 59818 | -2680 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 152994 | 2647 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -8.5 | 6.46 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -60 | 0 | 进口升贴水（美 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Core View - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead production is gradually resuming. The demand for lead batteries is constrained by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although social inventories are at historical lows, they are expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive. Overall, the upside of lead prices is limited by weak consumption, while the downside is supported by costs. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$30.22/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of used electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of used white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of used black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,430 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,172 lots, a decrease of 2,244 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 62,498 lots, a decrease of 3,201 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,555 yuan/ton and a low of 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,420 yuan/ton and closed at 17,405 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures weakened and fluctuated during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally sluggish spot market [2]. Inventory - On November 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 205,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. - Arbitrage: Suspend for now [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [3] Group 2: Core View - Raw material supply remains tight, suppressing primary lead production while secondary lead production recovers slowly. High lead prices restrain downstream battery demand, leading to reduced consumption due to enterprise production cuts. Although social inventories are at a historical low, they are expected to accumulate in November with supply recovery and imports. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, with an estimated oscillation range of approximately 16,900 - 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On November 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.40/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,416 lots, an increase of 13,741 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 65,699 lots, a decrease of 393 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,585 yuan/ton and a low of 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Graphs - The report includes 16 graphs covering various aspects such as lead price premiums, mine treatment charges, production rates, inventories, price differences, and battery production rates [4]