1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows the resumption of production of primary lead, production cuts due to losses in secondary lead, and an increase in the arrival of imported lead. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries has rebounded, but the recovery of terminal consumption is weak, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impacts are suppressing lead prices, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of a price stop - fall. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On March 18, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$45.31 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,550 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan per ton to -15.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,600 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan per ton to -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,875 yuan per ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,975 yuan per ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton. [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,635 yuan per ton and closed at 16,645 yuan per ton, a change of 45 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 54,361 lots, a change of -13,486 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 40,136 lots, a change of -11,026 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,785 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,595 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,590 yuan per ton and closed at 16,585 yuan per ton, a 0.39% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price fell by 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was sluggish. [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 78,000 tons, a change of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 18, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips in the range below 16,500 yuan per ton and conduct sell - hedging close to 16,850 yuan per ton. However, if it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is collectively de - stocking in the near future, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lead market will shift from a tight - balance to an inventory accumulation cycle. The domestic market will show an independent cost - defense trend due to the bottleneck of recycled lead raw materials, presenting a pattern of weak overseas and strong domestic markets. The expected trading range for the main contract of SHFE lead is around 16,200 - 18,200 yuan/ton, and for LME lead, it is about 1,950 - 2,200 US dollars/ton [2]. - On the supply side, primary lead will maintain high production driven by high by - product profits, contributing the main increment. Recycled lead production growth will stagnate due to a 10% - 15% loss in the effective supply of waste batteries caused by fiscal and tax compliance and reverse invoicing policies. The implicit tightening of raw materials will establish the cost line of recycled lead as a solid foundation for industry pricing [2]. - On the demand side, it enters an era dominated by existing stocks, with an expected growth rate of 1.5%. The relaxation of the weight limit for two - wheeled vehicles in the new national standard to 63 kg will boost the share of lead - acid batteries, effectively offsetting the substitution of lithium batteries. The global surplus of 102,000 tons will mainly accumulate overseas, while the domestic surplus will be only about 30,000 tons, meaning that domestic visible inventory will remain at a low level and the export window will be difficult to open [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, the lead price experienced a logical switch from cost - based pricing to macro - disturbances and then to supply - side contraction due to policies. The price center gradually increased in a wide - range fluctuation. In the fourth quarter, it showed a reverse - V shape, with the game between macro and industry intensifying again at the end of the year [3][6]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Transition to Tight - Balance - In 2026, the global lead concentrate supply will enter a substantial recovery cycle, with the total output growth rate expected to reach an inflection point. The growth rate is expected to rise significantly to over 2.2% from the low - growth range of 0.7% - 1.3% in 2025, and the global total output of lead concentrate is expected to exceed 4.67 million tons. The supply - demand pattern will transition from a structural shortage to a tight - balance [9]. - The concentrated commissioning of overseas new and expanded projects is the primary driving force for supply growth in 2026, with an expected new increment of about 212,000 tons. China's import volume of lead concentrate is expected to increase slightly, and the frequency of import window openings may be better than in 2025 [12]. - Although the domestic mine end has capacity expansion plans, the actual output elasticity is limited due to compliance constraints. The new domestic lead concentrate capacity in 2026 is about 82,000 metal tons, but the self - sufficiency rate of the domestic raw material market is difficult to reverse fundamentally [14]. - The profit distribution pattern between mining and smelting is difficult to change fundamentally, and low processing fees (TC) will become the norm, providing cost support for lead prices [16]. 3.2.2 Lead Ingot: Moderate Recovery and Structural Differentiation of Supply - Globally, the supply system of refined lead in 2026 is entering a slow - recovery channel. The growth of total output is mainly driven by the recovery outside China. The global refined lead output is expected to increase by 0.8% - 1.2% year - on - year, approaching 13.5 million tons [18]. - In the Chinese market, the growth momentum of supply is slowing down. The domestic refined lead output in 2026 is expected to be about 7.8 million tons (with a floating range of 40,000 tons), and the year - on - year growth rate will narrow to 1.7% - 2.0% [18]. - In the smelting structure, primary lead shows strong production resilience and will be the core contributor to supply increment in 2026, with an expected output growth rate of 2.5% - 3.0%. Recycled lead is facing cost and policy challenges and is the biggest risk point for supply reduction. Its output growth is expected to be only 0.6% - 1.0%, or even show local contraction [20][22]. - In 2026, the smelting end will show a clear structural differentiation of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead, and the price center of lead will be firmly supported by the marginal cost of recycled lead [24]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Demand Side 3.3.1 Overall Consumption: Rigid Support and Marginal Differentiation under Stock Dominance - In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of China's refined lead consumption is expected to narrow to about 1.5%, and the global demand growth rate will drop to 0.9%. The domestic lead consumption has rigid support, and the overall demand will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with a rigid bottom and limited upward elasticity [26]. 3.3.2 Lead - Acid Batteries: Differentiated Start - Up and Structural Reconstruction of Exports - In 2025, the lead - acid battery production showed a significant feature of differentiated start - up rates among different types and seasonal recovery. The overall industry's comprehensive start - up rate decreased compared with 2024, with traction batteries being the core support in the second half of the year, while starting and stationary batteries were weak [27]. - In 2025, the external demand for lead - acid batteries declined, and the export volume recorded a negative growth for the first time in recent years. The export price advantage was small, and the export structure changed significantly. The export volume to the United States and some Middle Eastern countries decreased sharply, while the export to Vietnam increased significantly [29]. - In 2025, the inventory in the industrial chain was mismatched, and the inventory pressure was transferred from the production end to the channel end. The battery factory's inventory decreased, while the dealer's inventory reached a historical high, which may overdraw the restocking potential in the first quarter of 2026 [31]. 3.3.3 Electric Bicycles: Policy Dividend Switch and Technological Return of "Lithium Retreat and Lead Advance" - In 2025, the electric bicycle market showed a "policy - driven" recovery, and the "trade - in" policy boosted the demand for lead - acid power batteries [33]. - In 2026, the core driving force of the industry will shift from fiscal subsidies to industrial standards. The revision of the new national standard for electric bicycles will release long - term institutional dividends, and the market share of lead - acid batteries is expected to stabilize and rebound [34][35]. - The lead consumption in the electric bicycle sector in 2026 is expected to grow moderately, with an estimated growth rate of lead consumption in the range of 1.5% - 2.0% [35]. 3.4 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Inventory 3.4.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the global lead market will show a surplus. The growth of mine production is mainly from overseas project expansion, and the growth of refined lead production shows a pattern of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead. The growth of refined lead consumption is mainly supported by Europe, the United States, and Vietnam [39]. 3.4.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the domestic lead market will have a marginal surplus of about 30,000 tons. The consumption growth rate is expected to be 1.5%, and the supply - demand balance will be affected by the production of primary and recycled lead and net imports [39]. 3.4.3 Inventory: Differentiation between Domestic and Overseas - In 2025, the global lead visible inventory showed a significant regional mismatch, with LME inventory accumulating to a historical high and domestic social inventory remaining at a low level. In 2026, the global supply - demand surplus is expected to expand, and the high overseas inventory will suppress the LME lead price. The domestic visible inventory is difficult to accumulate substantially, and the low domestic inventory will support the SHFE lead price [40].