新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 市场现货成交仍陷清淡 铅价在万七附近持续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-24，LME铅现货升水为-42.13美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16950 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-10.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-24，沪铅主力合约开于17085元/吨，收于17065元/吨，较前一交易日变化-20元/吨，全天交易日 成交43329手，较前一交易日变化-5429手，全天交易日持仓61071手，手较前一交易日变化-2870手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17110元/吨，最低点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided in the context, this is a placeholder) [4] 2. Core View - Some companies report a slight recovery in downstream lead - battery demand, while raw material supply remains relatively tight. Multiple smelters are under maintenance in September, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September has been implemented. The lead price is currently in a shock pattern, with an expected fluctuation range of 16,960 yuan/ton to 17,320 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to conduct corresponding buy or sell hedging within this range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On September 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.43/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. - **Futures**: On September 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,095 yuan/ton, closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,143 lots, down 5,815 lots from the previous day, and the position was 39,036 lots, down 3,159 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,170 yuan/ton and a low of 17,055 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton. In Henan, smelters mainly shipped long - term orders, with few spot offers. In Hunan, delivery brand lead smelters offered at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead, and non - delivery brand lead smelters offered at a discount of 60 - 30 yuan/ton. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead. Due to pre - holiday inventory replenishment by downstream battery enterprises, the trading volume in some areas was acceptable [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, down 130 tons from the previous week. As of September 18, the LME lead inventory was 222,675 tons, down 2,675 tons from the previous trading day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: On Hold [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. In September, this pattern may not change significantly. However, under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a shock - strengthening pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.17/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, waste white shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, and waste black shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, a change of 105 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,772 lots, a decrease of 3,543 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 49,603 lots, a decrease of 864 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,920 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close. Some downstream battery enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to fear of price drops, and the market transaction was mainly for rigid demand, but there was a slight improvement in some areas [2] Inventory - On September 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared with the same period last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 232,625 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [3]

表 周三，上海市场驰宏、红鹭铅16860-16925元/吨，对沪铅2510合约贴水50-0元/吨；江浙市场江铜、济金 铅16880-16925元/吨，对沪铅2510合约贴水30-0元/吨。 （9月11日）全国铅价格一览 规格 品牌/产 地 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海华通 16850元/ 吨 市场价 上海 上海华通有色金属现货市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海有色 16775元/ 吨 市场价 上海 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 广东南储 16775元/ 吨 市场价 广东省 广东南储有色现货市场 期货市场上看，9月11日收盘，沪铅期货主力合约报16900.00元/吨，涨幅0.36%，最高触及16920.00元/ 吨，最低下探16790.00元/吨，日内成交量达41772手。 【市场资讯】 9月11日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铅注册仓单194275吨。注销仓单38350吨，减少4375吨。铅库存 232625吨，减少4375吨。 9月11日，上期所铅期货仓单59737吨，环比上个交易日增加60 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] 2) Core View The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the supply - demand pattern has been generally weak. This pattern may not change significantly in September. Under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On September 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 75 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. Lead prices in different regions and prices of related products like lead scrap also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 45,315 lots, an increase of 14,839 lots. The position was 50,467 lots, an increase of 766 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close. The lead market had weak supply and demand, with weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm and light trading [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 10, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 2,325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Maintain a neutral view. Due to the unclear peak - season demand and the supply - demand pattern that is difficult to change in September, but with the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price may be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to trade within the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Suspend operations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Report's Core View - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is affected by the continuous decline in TC prices and an increase in smelter maintenance. On the demand side, dealers' inventory reduction is slow, and their procurement willingness is low, with some enterprises accumulating finished - product inventory. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September and the Middle East tariff policy, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the volatility range likely between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 19, 2024, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 140 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Hunan region, most lead smelters quoted at a discount of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some holders quoted at a discount of 160 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of over 200 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Although the lead futures price strengthened slightly, downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 3, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The TC price on the supply side continues to decline, and smelter maintenance has increased. On the consumption side, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, and the procurement willingness is low, with some enterprises accumulating finished - product inventory. Additionally, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and the Middle East tariff policy in September brings uncertainty to consumption. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.47/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead remained at 16,725 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead remained at 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and waste black shells remained at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On September 2, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 42,223 lots, an increase of 2,369 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 51,504 lots, an increase of 487 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,830 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,810 yuan/ton and closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase from the previous afternoon [1] Inventory - On September 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 2, the LME lead inventory was 258,025 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Trading - The SMM1 lead price remained flat on the previous day. In Henan, suppliers quoted at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some suppliers quoted at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. With the lead price consolidating, downstream buyers made purchases at low prices, and the spot trading in some regions improved [2] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro risk appetite is volatile, providing limited and continuous support for lead prices. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is expected to ease as more primary lead smelters are under maintenance and secondary lead smelters are operating at a low level due to significant losses. However, consumption has not been significantly boosted, and battery exports face negative impacts. The supply - demand contradiction is deadlocked, with low capital participation. It is expected that lead prices will remain range - bound and face resistance at integer levels [4][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From August 22nd to August 29th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,992 dollars/ton to 1,997 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 8.42 to 8.45. The SHFE inventory increased by 982 tons to 64,672 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 261,050 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons. The spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 rose first and then fell, closing at 16,880 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.6%. The LME lead price first rose and then fell, closing at 1,997 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.25%. In the spot market, downstream enterprises continued to wait and see, with low inquiry enthusiasm. The trading in the spot market was dull [6] Industry News - In September, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 450 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 dollars/dry ton. From January to June 2025, the global lead market had a surplus of 21,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 66,000 tons in the same period last year. The US Geological Survey proposed to include lead in the draft list of critical minerals. A large secondary lead smelter in East China suspended production at the beginning of September, with an impact volume of about 8,500 tons [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary and secondary lead price difference, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation-based" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, the lead price showed a weak oscillation, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons. The price of waste lead - acid batteries decreased slightly, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises did not narrow. The lead price oscillated with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. On Friday night, it broke through upwards driven by the market but then fell back due to insufficient driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - This week, the lead price was weakly oscillating, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons [3] Industry Performance - Due to the oscillating lead price, the decline in the price of waste lead - acid batteries was limited. Most smelting enterprises settled at the pre - decline price. As of August 22, 2025, the theoretical comprehensive profit - and - loss value of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 445 yuan/ton, and that of small - and - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 665 yuan/ton [3] Core Logic - This week, the lead price oscillated with continuous bull - bear games. On Friday night, it was driven by the market to break through upwards but then fell back. On the supply side, primary lead smelters were more willing to produce due to the expected peak demand season. Secondary lead smelters were still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw material waste batteries, so they sold at a firm price, and the overall operating rate remained stable at a low level. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead batteries this week was 71.64%, a significant improvement from last week. Domestic inventory oscillated, and LME inventory remained high. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3]