1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic, with a game between supply and demand. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline with limited amplitude. The increasing losses of secondary lead and the depletion of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventory and downstream bargain - hunting replenishment, and the opening of the import window brings an expectation of increased supply. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated. Looking ahead to next week, lead prices may fall and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain bargain - hunting and rigid - demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory depletion and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 23, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.51 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to 0.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan per ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 9,800 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,100 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,360 yuan per ton and closed at 16,395 yuan per ton, up 105 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 63,444 lots, a decrease of 13,162 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 89,207 lots, a decrease of 3,934 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,500 yuan per ton and a minimum of 16,320 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan per ton and closed at 16,435 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 23, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 23, the LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating is "Neutral". It is recommended to sell call options. The expected operating range of lead prices within the week is 1,6200 - 16,800 yuan per ton, and enterprises can carry out corresponding buying and selling hedging operations based on this range [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows the resumption of production of primary lead, production cuts due to losses in secondary lead, and an increase in the arrival of imported lead. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries has rebounded, but the recovery of terminal consumption is weak, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impacts are suppressing lead prices, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of a price stop - fall. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On March 18, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$45.31 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,550 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan per ton to -15.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,600 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan per ton to -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,875 yuan per ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,975 yuan per ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton. [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,635 yuan per ton and closed at 16,645 yuan per ton, a change of 45 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 54,361 lots, a change of -13,486 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 40,136 lots, a change of -11,026 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,785 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,595 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,590 yuan per ton and closed at 16,585 yuan per ton, a 0.39% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price fell by 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was sluggish. [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 78,000 tons, a change of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 18, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips in the range below 16,500 yuan per ton and conduct sell - hedging close to 16,850 yuan per ton. However, if it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is collectively de - stocking in the near future, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead first decline and then rise but the resumption is slow, and the recycled lead remains deeply in a loss pattern. The terminal consumption gradually recovers after a seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. Both domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Spot - On March 4, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.27/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Market News and Important Data - Futures - On March 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 46,772 lots, a change of -6,889 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 59,776 lots, a change of -439 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,860 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,775 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase compared with the afternoon close of the previous day [2] Market News and Important Data - Inventory - On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a change of -20 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 4, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid-to-late March and the resumption progress of recycled lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton range. Enterprises with different needs for buying or selling hedges can conduct buying or selling hedge operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead first decline and then rise, but the resumption of production is slow, and the secondary lead is deeply in a loss pattern. The terminal consumption gradually recovers after the seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. The domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.63/ton. The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 16,575 yuan/ton. The spot premium of SMM Shanghai lead remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan lead was 16,575 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of SMM Tianjin lead increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged from the previous trading day at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,805 yuan/ton and closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 60,587 lots, an increase of 11,518 lots from the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 63,962 lots, an increase of 118 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,930 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,755 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,945 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 2, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the same period last week. As of March 2, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral view. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid - to late March and the resumption progress of secondary lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on - demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish, paying attention to the breakthrough situation in the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton. Enterprises with different hedging needs for buying or selling can conduct buying or selling hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead prices are likely to trend in a volatile manner, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2604 of Shanghai lead futures was mainly in a volatile range from around 16,620 yuan/ton to 16,980 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and tobacco prices decreased 0.2% year - on - year, affecting the CPI to drop 0.06 percentage points. Among food items, egg prices dropped 9.2%, livestock meat prices dropped 6.1%, while fresh vegetable prices rose 6.9% and fresh fruit prices rose 3.2% [12] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of February 26, 2026, the average price of Grade 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,540 yuan/ton, 16,610 yuan/ton, and 16,540 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of Grade 1 lead was around a discount of - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - In December 2025, the global lead mine output was 402.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.2 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. As of February 13, 2026, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 100 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 200 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee in Kunming was 190 yuan/metal ton. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 71.9 million tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from the previous month and 5.3% year - on - year, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [22] 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of February 27, 2026, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,667 tons, an increase of 8,128 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 1.84% [28] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The national consumer price index showed certain changes in January 2026. Global lead mine output remained at a relatively high level. Refined lead supply continued to be in surplus. Lead processing fees increased slightly, and prices were at the bottom. Shanghai lead inventory increased significantly and was at a relatively high level in recent years. The LME lead inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in recent years [33]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand in the lead market both decline. Logistics operations stop and enterprises go on holiday, leading to light trading. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that inventory will accumulate significantly after the festival, causing the lead price to fluctuate weakly [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On February 11, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$50.95 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,660 yuan/ton and closed at 16,740 yuan/ton, a change of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 29,976 lots, a change of -28,124 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 38,060 lots, a change of -4,235 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,770 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,635 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,775 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On February 11, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 50,000 tons, a change of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 11, the LME lead inventory was 232,950 tons, a change of 200 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Sell hedging operations can be carried out when the price returns above 16,900 yuan/ton, but the position should not be too heavy approaching the Spring Festival [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly. The increasing losses of secondary lead forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak. The continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed - market state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $45.87/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 101,052 lots, a decrease of 21,807 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 57,029 lots, an increase of 549 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,990 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,690 yuan/ton and closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. After the decline of the lead price, downstream enterprises were in a wait - and - see state. Most downstream enterprises already had a certain inventory, and some were even waiting for the holiday. The overall market trading situation was sluggish [2] Inventory - On February 2, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 2, the LME lead inventory was 204,075 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation due to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, weak supply-demand fundamentals, and a lack of incremental capital inflow, leading to a complex interplay of external and internal factors [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 17,000 yuan, reaching a high of 17,370 yuan and a low of 16,960 yuan, closing at 17,185 yuan, up 185 yuan or 1.09% [1]. - The latest London lead price is reported at 2,047.5 USD, an increase of 20.5 USD [1]. - The average price for the ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead is 16,910 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, while the Guangdong spot market reported an average of 16,835 yuan, down 25 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The core support for lead prices stems from rigid constraints on the supply side, with new solid waste regulations significantly raising industry thresholds and compliance costs, leading to tight raw material supplies [3]. - Despite high operating rates among compliant smelting enterprises, the overall capacity cannot effectively expand due to a "tight balance" in raw materials, providing solid cost support for prices [3]. Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - Seasonal weakness in demand is a primary resistance to rising lead prices, with battery manufacturers reducing operating rates ahead of the Spring Festival, particularly in the electric bicycle sector [4]. - Dealers are adopting a cautious "just-in-time purchasing" strategy, resulting in a lack of transaction activity in the spot market, which fails to provide any incremental driving force for price increases [4]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The current industry landscape reflects a stalemate between "cost support" and "demand drag," where upstream raw material prices remain firm, continuously transmitting cost pressures to the midstream smelting sector [5]. - Weak downstream consumption further suppresses purchasing willingness and product prices, squeezing smelting profits and preventing a smooth supply-demand cycle, resulting in lead prices being stuck in a range-bound situation [5]. Group 5: Company Performance - Leading companies like Yuguang Gold Lead are navigating the industry cycle effectively, benefiting from their full industrial chain layout and being the largest silver producer in China, which enhances their earnings elasticity amid rising silver prices [6]. - The company is also focusing on recycled lead and high-end materials, positioning itself advantageously during industry consolidation and transformation, achieving stable growth and valuation improvement despite pressure on lead product profitability [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoint - The lead price is expected to show a slight increase within the week, but will generally remain in the range of 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. The supply in some areas has decreased due to extreme weather, while the demand for electric vehicle batteries has declined significantly approaching the Spring Festival, and the demand for automotive batteries is still acceptable. Some enterprises may start pre - holiday inventory replenishment [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On January 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.56/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -125 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,300 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 49,016 lots, an increase of 11,587 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 63,785 lots, a decrease of 1,409 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,215 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,065 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, the discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed to a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract for ex - factory prices; in Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices, with light trading, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract for ex - factory prices; in Jiangxi and Anhui, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory prices [2] Inventory - On January 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 26, the LME lead inventory was 213,600 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2603 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating and weakening trend, ranging from around 17,035 CNY/ton to about 17,415 CNY/ton [9] 3.2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year in real terms, and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, the added value increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. Among 41 major industries, 33 had year - on - year growth in added value in December, with different growth rates for each industry [13] 3.3. Spot Analysis - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 17,150 CNY/ton, an increase of 10 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,960 CNY/ton, 17,040 CNY/ton, and 16,970 CNY/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 140 CNY/ton compared with the previous trading day [16] 3.4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 CNY/metal ton, 200 CNY/metal ton, and 300 CNY/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 190 CNY/metal ton. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 719,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%, remaining at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [23] 3.5. Inventory Situation - As of January 23, 2026, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 29,351 tons, a decrease of 7,693 tons from the previous week. As of January 22, 2026, the LME lead inventory was 218,425 tons, a decrease of 4,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 14.08% [29] 3.6. Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year in real terms, and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. Lead processing fees changed little, and the price level was at the bottom. Lead production increased in December 2025 and remained at a relatively high level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory decreased to an extremely low level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [34]