市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-05，LME铅现货升水为-46.54美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化100元/吨至17225 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 50元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化150元/ 吨至17300元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化125元/吨至17275元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化150元/吨至17300元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-150元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 50元/吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10375 元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-05，沪铅主力合约开于17365元/吨，收于17395元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交38065手，较前一交易日变化-39893手，全天交易日持仓47544手，手较前一交易日变化2132手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17480元/吨，最低点达到17300元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17385元/吨，收于17455元/吨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 现货成交清淡 铅价再陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-25，LME铅现货升水为-37.81美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至20.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化25元 /吨至9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化75元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-25，沪铅主力合约开于17215元/吨，收于17315元/吨，较前一交易日变化90元/吨，全天交易日 成交55100手，较前一交易日变化-12922手，全天交易日持仓56328手，手较前一交易日变化-210手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17345元/吨，最低点达到17205元/吨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-12 期货方面：2025-12-11，沪铅主力合约开于17155元/吨，收于17155元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交34885手，较前一交易日变化-1564手，全天交易日持仓35754手，手较前一交易日变化-3561手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17220元/吨，最低点达到17070元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17115元/吨，收于17120元/吨，较 昨日午后收盘下降0.20%。 据SMM讯，昨日SMM1#铅价较前一个交易日下跌125元/吨。河南地区持货商报价对沪期铅2601合约贴水90-50元/ 吨出厂，贴水较昨日再度收窄；湖南地区交割品牌铅冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅升水0-25元/吨出厂，部分冶炼厂库存 售罄后成交转淡。铅价回调走弱，部分下游企业逢低采购，但冶炼厂普遍以长单发货为主，散单成交略显清淡。 库存方面：2025-12-11，SMM铅锭库存总量为2.1万吨，较上周同期变化0.00万吨。截止12月11日，LME铅库存为 235475吨，较上一交易日变化-75吨。 策略 绝对价格：中性 全球铅精矿延续紧平衡，国产TC低位横盘、进口矿 ...

铅周报：库存低位叠加供应边际减量 铅价偏强震荡 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 供应端，本周国产铅精矿加工费至300元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费至-145美元/干吨。铅精矿市场维持平稳，进口矿维持偏紧趋势。据SMM显示，2026年长单 签订具体价格谈判仍存在较大分歧。国内矿贸易市场上，由于多数冶炼厂提前预定了四季度铅精矿供应订单，因此市场上流通货源报价稀少。矿山报价以预售2026年报价为 主，个别矿山已完成2026年上半年铅精矿招投标。河南、内蒙古等地冶炼厂进口矿长单到厂后国内采购需求小幅下滑，江西、湖南、云南等地南方地区冶炼厂加工费仍维持 低位，但因部分厂家检修停产或并未计划满产等原因，市场上铅精矿加工费暂无明显继续下跌迹象。 ➢ 冶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 15,885 yuan/ton to about 17,220 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries in October, 29 had year - on - year growth in added value, with different growth rates for each industry [11] 3. Spot Analysis - As of November 28, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,015 yuan/ton, 17,120 yuan/ton, and 17,020 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - In September 2025, the global lead mine output was 392.8 thousand tons, an increase of 9.3 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years. As of November 21, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 280 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 64.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21] 5. Inventory Situation - As of November 28, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,799 tons, a decrease of 1,122 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 263,175 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.55% [30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Global lead mine output has increased, while lead processing fees are still slowly declining. Lead production in October remained at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline, and the inventory level was at a moderate level in recent years. LME lead inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory level remained at a high level in recent years [4][36] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 市场观望情绪相对浓重 铅价震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-25，LME铅现货升水为-28.49美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/ 吨至17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-25，沪铅主力合约开于17115元/吨，收于17045元/吨，较前一交易日变化-90元/吨，全天交易日 成交40496手，较前一交易日变化2076手，全天交易日持仓52466手，手较前一交易日变化-422手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17130元/吨，最低点达到1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场成交清淡 铅价延续震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-19，LME铅现货升水为-28.21美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-100元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-19，沪铅主力合约开于17225元/吨，收于17250元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交17225手，较前一交易日变化-8860手，全天交易日持仓17250手，手较前一交易日变化-5231手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17265元/吨，最低点达到17170元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 现货成交呈现区域性差异 铅价呈现震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-18，LME铅现货升水为-16.88美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100 元/吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-125元/吨至17200元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至 10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-18，沪铅主力合约开于17365元/吨，收于17230元/吨，较前一交易日变化-125元/吨，全天交易 日成交55068手，较前一交易日变化-19523手，全天交易日持仓69126手，手较前一交易日变化-5459手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Core View - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead production is gradually resuming. The demand for lead batteries is constrained by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although social inventories are at historical lows, they are expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive. Overall, the upside of lead prices is limited by weak consumption, while the downside is supported by costs. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$30.22/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of used electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of used white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of used black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,430 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,172 lots, a decrease of 2,244 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 62,498 lots, a decrease of 3,201 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,555 yuan/ton and a low of 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,420 yuan/ton and closed at 17,405 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures weakened and fluctuated during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally sluggish spot market [2]. Inventory - On November 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 205,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. - Arbitrage: Suspend for now [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [3] Group 2: Core View - Raw material supply remains tight, suppressing primary lead production while secondary lead production recovers slowly. High lead prices restrain downstream battery demand, leading to reduced consumption due to enterprise production cuts. Although social inventories are at a historical low, they are expected to accumulate in November with supply recovery and imports. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, with an estimated oscillation range of approximately 16,900 - 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On November 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.40/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,416 lots, an increase of 13,741 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 65,699 lots, a decrease of 393 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,585 yuan/ton and a low of 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Graphs - The report includes 16 graphs covering various aspects such as lead price premiums, mine treatment charges, production rates, inventories, price differences, and battery production rates [4]