新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-03 现货成交仍偏寡淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-03-02，LME铅现货升水为-44.63美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至16675元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/吨。 期货方面：2026-03-02，沪铅主力合约开于16805元/吨，收于16895元/吨，较前一交易日变化55元/吨，全天交易日 成交60587手，较前一交易日变化11518手，全天交易日持仓63962手，手较前一交易日变化118手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16930元/吨，最低点达到16755元/吨。夜盘方面，沪 ...

研究报告 铅周报 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建议观望 为主。 【风险提示】 沪铅或延续震荡趋势运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 年 报告日期：2026 2 | 3 | 月 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 国家统计局数据显示，2026 年 1 月份，全国居民消费价格同 比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 0.1%；食品价格 下降 0.7%，非食品价格上涨 0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服务 价格上涨 0.1%。1 月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.2%。其中， 城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 0.2%；食品价格持平，非食品价格上涨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-12 下游逐步放假 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-11，LME铅现货升水为-50.95美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16575 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨 至16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化50元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-11，沪铅主力合约开于16660元/吨，收于16740元/吨，较前一交易日变化75元/吨，全天交易日 成交29976手，较前一交易日变化-28124手，全天交易日持仓38060手，手较前一交易日变化-4235手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到16770元/吨，最低点达到16635元/吨。夜盘方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly. The increasing losses of secondary lead forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak. The continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed - market state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $45.87/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 101,052 lots, a decrease of 21,807 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 57,029 lots, an increase of 549 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,990 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,690 yuan/ton and closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. After the decline of the lead price, downstream enterprises were in a wait - and - see state. Most downstream enterprises already had a certain inventory, and some were even waiting for the holiday. The overall market trading situation was sluggish [2] Inventory - On February 2, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 2, the LME lead inventory was 204,075 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅上涨，沪铅主力合约2603开盘报17000元，高点17370元，低点16960 元，结算价17125元，收盘17185元/吨，涨185元，涨幅1.09%。伦铅最新价报2047.5美元，涨20.5美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16860-16960元/吨，均价16910元，较前一日价格持 平；广东现货市场1#铅报16785-16885元/吨，均价16835元，较前一日价格下跌25元。今日现货铅市场 报价在16775-16960元/吨之间，对比沪期铅2602合约贴水120-升水65元/吨，沪期铅2603合约贴水195-贴 水10元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，寒枝凝岁铅市静，震荡波微意未平。今日铅价区间震荡，核 心动因在于宏观面多空交织、基本面供需双弱、地缘情绪间接传导的三重博弈，资金向贵金属板块分流 也使得铅市缺乏增量推动，成为日内价格横盘的关键。 铅价震荡的核心在于宏观层面的"外压内撑"与资金分流。外部压制显著：美联储暂停降息且释放偏鹰信 号，推动美元反弹，直接抬升了以美元计价的伦铅成本，形成主要压力。同时，市场资金高度集中于火 热 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-27 买卖双方观望情绪浓重 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-26，LME铅现货升水为-44.56美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16950元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16925元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -75元/吨至16925元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-26，沪铅主力合约开于17170元/吨，收于17070元/吨，较前一交易日变化-25元/吨，全天交易日 成交49016手，较前一交易日变化11587手，全天交易日持仓63785手，手较前一交易日变化-1409手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17215元/吨，最低点达到170 ...

沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究报告 铅周报 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月份，规模以上工业增加 值同比实际增长 5.2%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长 率）。从环比看，12 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.49%。 2025 年，规模以上工业增加值比上年增长 5.9%。铅加工费变化不 大，价格水平处于底部区域。2025 年 12 月铅产量有所增长，并 维持在近年来较高位置。沪铅库存出现下降，库存水平处于近年 来极低位。LME 铅库存小幅下降，库存水平仍然处于近年来高位。 【后市展望】 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建议观望 为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铅供给变化 超预期。 *特别 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The fundamental contradictions in the lead market are relatively limited, and the lead price remains in a volatile pattern. The downstream of the lead industry may see a slight increase in开工 after the New Year's Day, but if orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may reduce production or arrange holidays. The supply of lead ore is relatively tight, and processing fees are still at a low level. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 14, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.81/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,385 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 48,180 lots, an increase of 14,851 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 70,437 lots, an increase of 35,451 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,330 yuan/ton and 17,485 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,455 yuan/ton and closed at 17,620 yuan/ton, up 1.18% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price increased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Lead consumption was generally weak, the de - stocking of smelter lead ingot inventories was limited, and the spot market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in light trading [2] Inventory - On January 14, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of January 14, the LME lead inventory was 215,200 tons, a decrease of 3,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Given the current situation, operations can be carried out by buying and selling hedges within the range of 16,980 yuan/ton to 17,800 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile overall. Considering the low inventory and the compressed profit of secondary lead, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage due to the continuous premium of the spot [7]. - Primary lead smelters are under maintenance, leading to pressured primary lead production, while the output of secondary lead is increasing. On the demand side, the purchasing willingness is weak [7]. - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.94%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.37%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,970, with a weekly decline of 1.20% [8]. - The LME lead premium changed from - 37.81 to - 46.54, a decrease of 8.73; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 100; the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 125, a decrease of 75 [8]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 15 to - 40.90, a decrease of 25.90 [8]. 3.1.2 Inventory - The total lead inventory in five regions increased this week, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The inventory of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 2,724 to 16,188; the total inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 2,107 to 30,111; the social inventory increased by 600 to 19,600; the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 222,725, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 5.06% to 27.04% [3][8]. 3.1.3 Transaction and Position - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last Friday was 58,684 lots, an increase of 1,799 compared with the previous week; the position was 42,928 lots, a decrease of 8,072 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last Friday was 6,649 lots, an increase of 2241 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Supply Aspects (Primary Lead, Secondary Lead, Lead Concentrate) 3.2.1 Lead Concentrate - The import volume, production volume, actual consumption volume, and inventory of lead concentrate are presented in the historical data charts, but no specific latest data is summarized here. The import TC of lead concentrate is in US dollars per dry ton, and the domestic TC is in yuan per ton [29][30]. - The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate is also presented in the historical data charts [31]. 3.2.2 Primary Lead - The production of primary lead is under pressure. Primary lead smelters in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and other places are under continuous maintenance, affecting the supply of primary lead. The weekly production and operating rate data of primary lead are presented in the historical data charts [7][34]. 3.2.3 Secondary Lead - The profit of secondary lead enterprises is compressed, but the output has increased as heavy - pollution weather warnings have been lifted in Henan, Anhui and other places. However, with the weakening of consumption, the circulation of waste batteries is tight, and the raw material arrival volume is low this week [7]. - The production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, profit and loss data of secondary lead are presented in the historical data charts [34][39][40]. 3.3 Demand Aspects (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) 3.3.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase. The operating rate, finished - product inventory days, and export volume data of lead - acid batteries are presented in the historical data charts [7][45]. 3.3.2 End - Users - The actual consumption volume of lead and the production volume data of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the historical data charts, reflecting the consumption situation of end - users [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of the lead variety is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise in the non - ferrous sector, the demand off - season becomes even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 yuan in January 2026 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.54/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 5, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,395 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,065 lots, a change of - 39,893 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 47,544 lots, a change of 2,132 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,300 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,385 yuan/ton and closed at 17,455 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the previous afternoon's close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in成交. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventory was low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory sources were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for成交 [2] Inventory - On January 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 236,900 tons, a change of - 2,600 tons from the previous trading day [3]