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新能源及有色金属日报:现货成交有限,宏观因素提振铅价震荡走高-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:21
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 现货成交有限 宏观因素提振铅价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 1、国内供应大幅提升 2、消费不及预期 3、海外流动性收紧 据SMM讯,昨日SMM1#铅价较上一交易日上涨100元/吨。河南地区持货商报价对SMM1#铅均价贴水20-0元/吨出 厂,或对沪期铅2509合约贴水120-100元/吨;湖南地区冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅贴水20-0元/吨出厂,部分持货商报 价对SMM1#铅均价贴水50-30元/吨;广东地区炼厂报价升水下调,对SMM1#铅升水30元/吨,铅价走强后,下游仅 以刚需采购,下游接货积极性较差,现货市场成交一般。 库存方面:2025-08-25,SMM铅锭库存总量为6.8万吨,较上周同期变化-0.16万吨。截止8月25日,LME铅库存为 273050吨,较上一交易日变化-6550吨。 策略 中性 目前铅品种供需两淡格局难改,旺季需求目前并无明显体现,而精矿端即便在冶炼厂存在检修计划预期的情况下, 仍然显得较为紧俏,TC价格也持续走低,因此基本面目前并无明显利好铅价的因素,但宏观因素(如降息预期抬 升)则是利好整体有色板块,也使得铅价下跌空间有限,预计价 ...
铅周报:上下驱动不明显,震荡为主-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:42
南华铅周报 ——上下驱动不明显,震荡为主 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号: Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号:F03145451 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月25日 点评 【盘面回顾】本周铅价偏弱震荡,报收在16780元每吨。国内五地铅锭库存为7.1万吨;LME库存为27.3万 吨。 【产业表现】由于铅价震荡运行,期间废旧铅酸蓄电池价格下跌幅度有限,且多数冶炼企业最终结算价格仍 按照下跌前价格执行,再生铅企业亏损区间并无收窄;截至2025年8月22日,规模再生铅企业综合盈亏理论 值为-445元/吨,中小规模再生铅企业综合盈亏理论值为-665元/吨。 【核心逻辑】本周价铅价维持震荡运行,多空持续博弈。周五夜盘受大盘带动,向上突破,但是驱动力度不 足回落。供给端,原生铅冶炼厂生产受预期需求旺季影响,生产意愿较强。再生铅由于成本支撑因素,同时 原料废电瓶依旧较为稀缺,再生铅冶炼端仍处亏损状态,挺价出售,整体开工率低位维持稳定。需求端,本 周铅蓄电池开工率为71.64%,较上周有较大改善。国内库存维持震荡,LME库存维持高位。短期内,基本面 僵持,观望下游和宏观 ...
沪铅延续震荡
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 08:35
沪铅延续震荡 基本面变化 上周伦铅库存高位继续回落,仍处于近五年来的高位,现货维持深度贴水,海外铅供需面仍偏宽松。8月进口铅精矿加 工费进一步回落,国内外铅矿紧张程度加剧,部分原生铅企业计划检修,产能释放受限。目前废电瓶原料紧张矛盾并未缓解, 废电瓶价格仅小幅回落,再生铅企业亏损较大,复产与新项目增量有限。 下游蓄电池开工相对稳定,传统消费旺季未显现,电动自行车电池需求疲软,企业订单驱动生产,批发价上行受阻,经 销商库存升历史高位,终端消费仍较为低迷。 整体来看,供需双弱,国内库存相对高位,铅价上下两难,或继续震荡。后期关注开学季来临需求改善情况和再生铅 生产动态。 加工费:2025年6月国内铅矿进口为118026吨,环比上升13.54%,终结二连降,处于近五年高位水平。SMM显示国内外铅精矿紧张 加剧,加工费低位继续回落。8月国内月度加工费400-600元/吨,月度环比下降50元;进口月度加工费位-70--50美元/干吨, 月度环比下降15美元。现货加工费方面,国内铅矿周度加工费为400-600元/吨,周度环比持平;进口周度加工费为-100--60美 元/干吨,周度环比下降15美元。 供应:SMM显示7月全 ...
现货市场清淡,铅价仍陷震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:49
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]
新能源及有色金属周报:供需两弱格局延续,铅价维持震荡-20250727
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 14:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with the lead price expected to maintain a volatile pattern between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. Although there is regional tight - supply in primary lead due to maintenance, overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, the lead price may not decline significantly under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Analysis Mine End - In the week of July 25, the lead concentrate market remained in a tight supply - demand balance with obvious regional differentiation. In Hunan, the processing fee for silver - lead ore was negative, and actual market transactions were scarce. In contrast, supply was relatively loose in Henan and Inner Mongolia, and most smelters were less willing to adjust the pb50 processing fee. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient, only the coefficient of low - silver ore (200 - 500g/ton) was raised to 0.8, while that of high - silver ore remained unchanged [1] Primary Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the primary lead industry dropped to 63.37%, a week - on - week decline of 2.45 percentage points. Supply in Henan was tight due to delayed resumption of maintenance enterprises and production fluctuations in another smelter. Operations in Hunan and Yunnan were basically stable, with only minor output adjustments in individual small and medium - sized plants. Maintenance was the main factor restricting capacity release [1] Recycled Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the recycled lead industry rebounded to 40.68%, a week - on - week increase of 2.84 percentage points. The resumption of an Anhui smelter drove a 6.6 - percentage - point increase in the regional operating rate, and a large - scale enterprise in Inner Mongolia was about to start production. Production in Henan and Jiangsu remained stable, but the recovery volume of waste batteries still restricted capacity release. With the approaching of the traditional peak consumption season, enterprises' production willingness is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise slightly next week. Tight waste material supply is the main constraint [2] Consumption - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery industry slightly rose to 71.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points. The market showed structural differentiation: some electric bicycle battery enterprises had an operating rate of up to 90% due to peak - season stocking demand, while automobile battery enterprises' operating rates fluctuated between 70 - 80% under the dual influence of weak domestic consumption and tariff policies, and some enterprises achieved full production by seizing export orders. Overall terminal demand has not improved significantly [2] Inventory - As of July 24, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 7.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons. Affected by continuous maintenance of primary lead and losses in recycled lead, the supply side remained tight. The narrowing price difference between recycled lead and primary lead prompted downstream to turn to primary lead procurement, resulting in a decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory [2] Strategy - Given the current situation, the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3]
市场呈现供需两淡格局,欠佳陷入震荡走势
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and is in a volatile trend. The mainstream lead sources are in relatively high demand, but the recycled lead trading is still sluggish, and the peak - season demand is not significantly evident. Therefore, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a volatile pattern [1][2][4] Summary by Related Content Spot Market - On July 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.40 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at 0 yuan per ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures opened at 16,930 yuan per ton and closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 70,210 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots, and the position was 62,272 lots, an increase of 20,641 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,910 yuan per ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On July 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of July 23, the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, an increase of 650 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to buy low and sell high between 16,300 yuan per ton and 17,000 yuan per ton. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]
下游逢低采购,铅价仍陷震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:25
Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View - The market has a relatively high level of inquiry for mainstream lead products, but the trading volume of recycled lead remains low. As the demand during the peak season is not significantly evident, it is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On July 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.97/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead refined scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, while the prices of scrap white and black casings remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,950 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,990 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. During the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,980 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [1] Market Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In the Henan region, some smelters have not fully resumed production, resulting in limited supply of scattered orders. Only some traders are offering quotes. In the Hunan region, smelters are firm in their quotes, while traders are offering discounts. In the Jiangxi and Yunnan regions, holders are also offering discounts [2] - **Demand**: The lead price is in a weak and fluctuating state. Downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, but some enterprises are hesitant due to concerns about price declines, resulting in a generally sluggish market transaction volume [2] Inventory - On July 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 22, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to sell high and buy low within the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide strangle [3]
市场成交情况无明显变化,铅价仍陷震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:12
Group 1: Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided, keeping as is) [4] Group 2: Core View - The lead market shows no significant change in trading volume, and the lead price remains in a volatile pattern. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious, and the weak non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. Current operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot - On July 15, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$32.78/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton, SMM Tianjin lead premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread changed by 0 yuan/ton to -25 yuan/ton, and waste battery prices remained unchanged [1] Futures - On July 15, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,060 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, a change of -155 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 33,602 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots. The position was 52,667 lots, an increase of 223 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,080 yuan/ton and 16,925 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,930 yuan/ton and closed at 16,350 yuan/ton, a 0.44% drop from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 25 yuan/ton. In different regions, the quotation methods and conditions varied, and downstream buyers only made purchases based on rigid demand [2] Inventory - On July 15, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a change of 2,300 tons from last week. As of July 15, the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, a change of 10,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]
多空矛盾不突出,铅价窄幅震荡
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overseas tariff disturbances have resurfaced, but the impact is controllable. The fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Primary and secondary lead smelters are resuming production, but the supply recovery is slow. Meanwhile, demand is entering the peak season, and some battery companies are stocking up as usual, with the enterprise operating rate continuously improving month - on - month. Short - term inventory increases suppress the enthusiasm of long - position funds. The expectation of improved demand and rigid cost support the lead price. The contradiction between long and short positions is limited, and it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and wait for the effective realization of the peak season [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From July 4th to July 11th, the SHFE lead price decreased from 17,295 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a drop of 220 yuan/ton; the LME lead price decreased from 2,057 dollars/ton to 2,017 dollars/ton, a drop of 40 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.41 to 8.47, an increase of 0.06. The SHFE inventory increased from 53,303 tons to 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 263,275 tons to 249,375 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons. The social inventory increased from 5.79 million tons to 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 195 yuan/ton to - 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated within a narrow range, with the final closing price at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. The LME lead price fluctuated horizontally around 2,050 dollars/ton, with the final closing price at 2,017 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%. In the spot market, there were still differences in the shipment of electrolytic lead smelters. Some enterprises increased the discount for shipment, while others had firm quotes. The recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some raised prices for shipment. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices and preferred to purchase the ex - factory goods of electrolytic lead smelters, with part of the demand diverted to recycled lead, while the warehouse goods transactions remained sluggish. As of July 11th, the LME weekly inventory was 249,375 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,900 tons; the SHFE inventory was 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons compared with last week. As of July 10th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.42 million tons compared with Monday and an increase of 0.32 million tons compared with last Thursday [5][6]. 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, both remaining unchanged. Near the shipping period of the US REDDOG lead mine, the previously undecided additional tariff negotiation will eventually end with both the buyer and the seller bearing half each, and the lead will enter the domestic market in late Q3 [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead ingot premiums, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, the price of waste batteries, the profit situation of recycled lead enterprises, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13].
受供需双弱与宏观影响 短期内铅价震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-02 08:43
Group 1 - The current spot price of lead ingots in Shanghai is reported at 16,925.00 CNY/ton, which is a discount of 250.00 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 17,175.00 CNY/ton [1] - On July 2, the futures market closed with the main contract for lead at 17,175.00 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.23%, with a daily trading volume of 27,524 lots [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a total lead inventory of 268,150 tons, which decreased by 1,925 tons, indicating a tightening supply [3] Group 2 - According to a report from Nanhua Futures, the supply side is experiencing a recovery in smelting plants driven by high lead prices, but overall supply remains tight due to limited raw material availability for recycled lead [4] - The demand side is approaching peak season, with increased willingness to stock up, although actual transactions remain weak due to rising prices [4] - The market outlook suggests a period of volatility driven by weak supply and demand dynamics along with macroeconomic influences [4]