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行业深度报告:管线布局迈入收获期,2025开启国产流感新药元年
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-06-15 05:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The flu virus is a highly pathogenic pathogen, and the development of new mechanism drugs is imperative [4] - The flu is a common respiratory infectious disease with a high transmission rate, affecting approximately 1 billion people globally each year, with 300,000 to 500,000 severe cases and 290,000 to 650,000 deaths due to flu-related respiratory diseases [4][15] - The domestic flu drug market has exceeded 10 billion yuan, with Oseltamivir holding over 80% market share, while Baloxavir has seen rapid growth from 0.07 billion yuan in 2022 to 0.63 billion yuan in 2023 [6][36] Summary by Sections 1. Flu Virus and Drug Development - The flu virus is categorized into four types: A, B, C, and D, with A and B being the primary types responsible for widespread outbreaks [17][20] - The main drug targets during flu infection include the surface proteins Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA), with RNA polymerase inhibitors emerging as the mainstream research target in antiviral drug development [5][26] 2. Market Dynamics - The flu drug market in China is projected to grow significantly, with new domestic drugs expected to launch in 2025, enhancing sales potential and company performance [7][36] - The sales of flu drugs in the domestic market reached 11.405 billion yuan in 2023, with Oseltamivir accounting for 86.48% of the market share [36] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Health元, with beneficiaries including Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Xiansheng Pharmaceutical [7]