晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月25日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250825 重点推荐 财经要闻 [table_summary] ➢ 1.美联储主席偏鸽言论或强化降息预期，资产方向的持续性更重要——资产配置周报 （2025/08/18-2025/08/22） ➢ 2.鲍威尔鸽派发言加强降息预期——海外观察：美国2025年8月杰克逊·霍尔会议 ➢ 3.众生药业（002317）：中药基石稳健，创新研发逐步兑现——公司深度报告 ➢ 4.羚锐制药（600285）：盈利能力持续提升，银谷并表带来增长新动能——公司简评报告 ➢ 5.扬杰科技（300373）：下游需求稳步释放，海 ...

昂拉地韦片与奥司他韦胶囊头对头、安慰剂对照治疗成人甲型流感的III期临床试验结果表明，昂拉地韦 片在主要终点指标七项流感症状缓解时间(TTAS)、次要终点指标包括单系统或单症状指标缓解时间、 病毒学指标(如病毒载量下降、病毒转阴时间、病毒转阴参与者比例)等均优于安慰剂组，达到统计学显 著性差异。昂拉地韦片在中位TTAS和发热缓解时间均比奥司他韦组缩短了近10%。 格隆汇8月21日丨众生药业(002317.SZ)公布，近日，广东众生药业股份有限公司控股子公司广东众生睿 创生物科技有限公司(简称"众生睿创")获得澳门特别行政区政府药物监督管理局签发的一类创新药物昂 拉地韦片(商品名：安睿威®)成药登记证书。 昂拉地韦片对奥司他韦、玛巴洛沙韦耐药病毒株保持强效抑制作用，为患者提供更优治疗选择，并且为 破解流感用药耐药困局提供了结构性优势。本次昂拉地韦片获批在澳门上市销售，有望惠及更多流感患 者，为广大医师和患者提供安全、有效的治疗选择。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rich product layout of innovative drugs by Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, with a focus on the upcoming launch of its influenza product, Anladiwei tablets, which is expected to capture significant market share [1][2][3] Company Overview - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of traditional Chinese medicine and chemical drugs, with traditional Chinese medicine being its core business [1] - The company has established a solid foundation for growth through its well-known traditional Chinese medicine products, which are projected to generate 1.32 billion yuan in revenue by the end of 2024, accounting for 53% of total revenue [1] Innovative Drug Development - The company has successfully launched innovative drugs, including the first peptide-based 3CL single-agent anti-COVID drug, Lairuitewei tablets, and the recently approved influenza drug, Anladiwei tablets, which is a PB2-targeted small molecule RNA polymerase inhibitor [2] - Anladiwei tablets are expected to outperform current mainstream influenza drugs, showing faster symptom relief and lower resistance risk, thus potentially reshaping the influenza market landscape [2] Clinical Trial Results - The long-acting GLP-1 drug, RAY1225 injection, has shown promising results in Phase II clinical trials, demonstrating better weight loss and blood sugar control compared to similar drugs [2] - The drug's efficacy and safety profile are noteworthy, with ongoing Phase III clinical trials in China and potential for overseas rights authorization [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2.808 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.501 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 11.2%, and 12.1% respectively [3] - Net profit is projected to increase significantly from 305 million yuan in 2025 to 387 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 201.9%, 11.3%, and 14.1% respectively [3] Investment Recommendation - The report recommends a "buy" rating for Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, emphasizing the positive outlook for its innovative drug portfolio and stable performance in traditional Chinese medicine and chemical generic drug sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Sinovac Biotech has reached an agreement with Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. for the commercialization rights of a new drug, Anladiwei tablets, in Macau [1] - Anladiwei tablets are the world's first innovative drug targeting the PB2 protein of the RNA polymerase of the influenza A virus [1] - This development represents a significant breakthrough for domestic drugs in the antiviral field [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience of the overseas economy, tariff developments, and expectations for a rate cut in September, with a focus on technology growth and opportunities for clearing internal competition in the domestic market [4][14][18] - The A-share market is expected to challenge last year's highs, with a strong focus on technology growth and sectors that can benefit from the reduction of internal competition, such as steel, coal, cement, glass, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and live pigs [21][4] - The report recommends a diversified portfolio of stocks, including companies in electronics, new energy, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, with specific companies highlighted as top picks [5][12][22] Group 2 - The electronics sector is represented by companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, which is expected to see significant profit growth due to increased demand for high-speed optical modules driven by AI infrastructure [22][23] - The semiconductor industry is recovering, with Tongfu Microelectronics reporting a notable increase in revenue and profit, driven by the resurgence in the consumer electronics market [31][33] - The new energy sector, represented by Qiangrui Technology, is experiencing rapid growth in smart automotive and AI server equipment, indicating strong future growth potential [37][39] Group 3 - The power equipment sector, represented by Xinshi Da, is focusing on industrial automation and robotics, with a strong market position in elevator control systems and a growing presence in the robotics industry [43][44] - The non-ferrous metals sector, represented by Xingye Yinxin, is benefiting from rising prices of silver and tin, with significant production increases and strategic acquisitions to enhance future growth [49][51][54]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing a profound transformation from "following innovation" to "source breakthrough," driven by new quality productivity and technological innovation [2][12]. Company Overview - Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was established in 1979 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in December 2009, with stock code 002317 [4]. - The company integrates drug research and development, production, and sales, positioning itself as one of China's top 100 pharmaceutical companies [4]. - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical focuses on high-quality products and services, with a product portfolio covering major disease areas such as cardiovascular, respiratory, ophthalmology, and digestion [4]. Innovation and Product Development - The company has established a development strategy centered on traditional Chinese medicine, innovation, and focusing on specialty areas, with core products including the Compound Thrombus Tong series and Brain Thrombus Tong capsules [4]. - Zhongsheng is the only domestic company with innovative drugs for both COVID-19 and influenza, having successfully launched the first peptide 3CL single-agent antiviral drug for COVID-19 and the first RNA polymerase PB2 protein inhibitor for influenza [4][8]. - The company has invested in innovative drug development, with two new drugs launched recently, including the innovative drug for treating adult influenza, which was approved in May [8]. Digital Transformation - The company is investing 300 million yuan in its subsidiary to create a smart, digital, and intensive traditional Chinese medicine extraction workshop [9]. - Advanced technologies such as cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, and IoT are being utilized to enhance the entire pharmaceutical supply chain [7][9]. Sustainable Development Strategy - Zhongsheng emphasizes the coordination between traditional and emerging businesses, proposing a sustainable development structure that includes innovative drugs as the leading force, traditional Chinese medicine as the foundation, and chemical generics as support [10]. - The company has maintained a research and development investment of over 8% of its revenue annually since 2010, with recent years exceeding 10% [12]. Industry Trends - The core of new quality productivity in the biopharmaceutical industry lies in technological innovation and the transformation of results [6]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards innovation-driven and high-quality growth, supported by policy, market changes, and technological advancements [6].

Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - RAY1225 injection shows significant weight loss in obese/overweight participants with a mean percentage change from baseline of -10.05%, -12.98%, and -15.05% for the 3mg, 6mg, and 9mg groups respectively, compared to -3.55% in the placebo group [3] - The percentage of participants achieving weight loss ≥5% was 73.2%, 95.1%, and 95.1% for the 3mg, 6mg, and 9mg groups respectively, while the placebo group had a rate of 51.2% for weight loss ≥10% [4] - In the SHINING-1 trial, the HbA1c levels decreased by -1.68%, -2.06%, and -2.16% for the 3mg, 6mg, and 9mg groups respectively, compared to -0.33% in the placebo group [6] Group 2: Safety and Tolerability - RAY1225 injection demonstrated good safety and tolerability across both REBUILDING-1 and SHINING-1 trials, with a low risk of hypoglycemia and no new safety signals identified [10] - The most common adverse reactions were gastrointestinal, with a lower incidence compared to similar drugs [10] Group 3: Future Development and Market Strategy - The company has received ethical approval for Phase III clinical trials of RAY1225 for obesity and type 2 diabetes, with participant enrollment for REBUILDING-2 initiated in June 2025 [10] - The company plans to enhance its marketing strategy for the newly approved drug, focusing on academic ecosystem construction, data-driven service upgrades, and key project practices [14][15] Group 4: Research and Development Investment - The company has consistently invested over 8% of its annual revenue in R&D, with the last three years exceeding 10% [16] - The focus is on building a diversified R&D matrix that includes traditional Chinese medicine, innovative drugs, and generic drugs, transitioning towards an innovative pharmaceutical enterprise [18] Group 5: International Collaboration and Market Expansion - The company emphasizes the importance of international collaboration for expanding market opportunities and enhancing global R&D capabilities [19] - Plans are in place to explore the commercial potential of innovative drug pipelines and seek international partnerships [19] Group 6: Shareholder and Subsidiary Management - The company redeemed 13.15% of shares from its subsidiary, increasing its ownership from 61.11% to 74.26%, enhancing control and operational efficiency [20] - This move is part of a broader strategy to strengthen the company's position in innovative drug development, particularly in respiratory and metabolic disease areas [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by reduced non-recurring factors and the approval of new drugs [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 170 to 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 94.49% to 140.25%, primarily due to the diminishing impact of non-recurring gains from 2024 [2]. - The expected growth in net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 3.64% and 26.67% [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.712 billion, 2.997 billion, and 3.290 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.39, 0.49, and 0.60 yuan [4]. Group 2: Product Development - The company has received approval for its innovative drug, Angladiwe, which is the world's first RNA polymerase PB2 protein inhibitor for influenza, expected to contribute to future growth [2]. - Angladiwe is the only anti-influenza drug in China that has undergone head-to-head phase III clinical trials with Oseltamivir, showing a nearly 10% reduction in median time to fever relief compared to Oseltamivir [2]. - The company is rapidly advancing its GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist, RAY1225, which has shown promising results in weight loss and metabolic improvement, with ongoing phase III clinical trials in China [3]. Group 3: Market Potential - RAY1225 has potential for international licensing and is positioned to compete effectively in the market, with a higher weight loss achievement rate compared to existing treatments [3][4]. - The company plans to participate in the 2025 medical insurance negotiations for Angladiwe, and is also developing a pediatric formulation of the drug, which has shown favorable results in phase II clinical trials [2].

Group 1 - The innovative drug, Olanidavir, is the world's first targeted antiviral for influenza, developed by Guangdong Zhongsheng Ruichuang Biotechnology Co., in collaboration with Guangzhou National Laboratory and the team led by Academician Zhong Nanshan [1] - Olanidavir has advantages such as rapid onset, strong antiviral effects, and low resistance, providing a new treatment option for influenza [1] - The drug has received patent authorization in multiple countries, including China and the United States, and has been recognized in top international academic journals [1] Group 2 - JD Health has established itself as the leading platform for the online launch of new specialty drugs, leveraging its strong supply chain infrastructure [2] - The company emphasizes a comprehensive solution for influenza treatment by integrating medical services, testing, diagnosis, and medication [2] - JD Health plans to continue collaborating with global pharmaceutical partners to enhance the accessibility of new specialty drugs for patients [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, has a solid foundation in traditional Chinese medicine and is innovating to drive future growth. The company has established a development strategy focusing on traditional Chinese medicine as the base, innovation as the lead, and specialty as the focus. The product pipeline is rich and diverse, covering major therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular, respiratory, ophthalmology, and digestion [4][14] - The company is expected to see steady growth in its traditional Chinese medicine segment and significant potential from its innovative drug pipeline. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 308 million, 345 million, and 392 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.36, 0.41, and 0.46 yuan [4][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical was established in 1979 and officially restructured in 2001, becoming a top 100 pharmaceutical company in China. It focuses on drug research, production, and sales, with key products including the Compound Xue Shuan Tong series, Nao Shuan Tong capsules, and Zhongsheng pills [4][14] Business Structure and Strategy - The company has formed a sustainable business structure with innovative drugs as the leading development driver, traditional Chinese medicine as the business foundation, and chemical generic drugs as beneficial support. The core products are expected to maintain steady growth despite short-term challenges from price reductions due to centralized procurement [5][30] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2023 was 2,611 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2,802 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.5%. The net profit is expected to recover from a loss in 2024 to 308 million yuan in 2025, with a net profit margin of 11% [7][30] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 56.1%, with a net margin of 11.0%. The company has effectively controlled its expense ratios, which are expected to further decline as the innovative pipeline matures [7][30] Product Pipeline and Innovation - The innovative drug pipeline focuses on major indications, including COVID-19, influenza, weight loss, and MASH. Key products include the globally first peptide-based 3CL inhibitor for COVID-19, which was conditionally approved in March 2023, and an influenza treatment approved in May 2025 [6][14] - The company has a rich product pipeline that covers various diseases and promotes departmental collaboration, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [32][35] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market position with its core products, particularly the Compound Xue Shuan Tong series, which has seen a significant increase in market share due to its clinical evidence and academic promotion efforts [36][38] - The sales of the Compound Xue Shuan Tong capsules are expected to stabilize and grow, benefiting from demographic trends and the increasing demand for chronic disease treatments [36][39]