Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates a significant rise in influenza activity in China, with a notable increase in patients visiting hospitals for treatment, prompting the need for early antiviral therapy and consideration of various factors in drug selection [1][2][3] Group 1: Influenza Activity - The latest report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows a marked increase in influenza activity, particularly in southern provinces, with the percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases reported at 4.6%, up from 4.1% the previous week [2] - Northern provinces reported an ILI percentage of 5.1%, significantly higher than the previous week's 3.7% and above levels from 2022, 2023, and 2024 [2] - A total of 347 influenza-like illness outbreaks were reported nationwide, with 245 cases identified as A(H3N2) [2] Group 2: Treatment and Drug Approval - The increase in influenza cases has led to a rise in hospital visits, particularly in pediatric departments, with doctors recommending early antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset [4] - Oseltamivir remains the preferred antiviral treatment, especially for children and immunocompromised patients, with over 120 approvals for related products from various companies [4][5] - The market for oseltamivir is dominated by Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical, holding over 70% market share in the past three years [4] Group 3: New Drug Developments - Several new RNA polymerase inhibitors have been approved in China, with the year 2025 being referred to as the "Year of Domestic Influenza New Drugs" [1][6] - Roche's Marbofloxacin has seen a significant increase in demand, with supply pressures leading to local production initiatives [6][7] - Other domestic companies, such as Qingfeng Pharmaceutical and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, have also launched new antiviral drugs, contributing to a broader range of treatment options for influenza [7][8] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The price of Marbofloxacin ranges from 195 to 234 yuan per pack, with no adjustments made by Roche despite increased demand [7] - Companies like Haizheng Pharmaceutical have reported a significant rise in demand for their antiviral products, with ongoing supply guarantees in place [8][9] - The market is seeing increased competition as more domestic firms enter the RNA polymerase inhibitor space, with several products currently in clinical trials or awaiting approval [9]

Core Viewpoint - The flu season in China is expected to arrive earlier this year, with a significant increase in infection rates anticipated due to the emergence of the H3N2 strain as the dominant virus, replacing last year's H1N1 strain [6][11][12]. Group 1: Flu Season and Virus Strain - The proportion of flu-like cases in emergency departments reached 3.3%, with a flu positivity rate of 5.8%, marking a 2.2% increase from the previous week [6][7]. - Experts predict that the flu season may start earlier this year, with the H3N2 strain expected to dominate, leading to a higher number of infections [6][12]. - The flu season's early onset is influenced by factors such as virus mutation, low immunity in the population against H3N2, and unusual climate conditions [12][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The early flu season signals a shift in market dynamics, prompting a surge in flu prevention-related stocks, with some stocks even hitting their daily limit [8]. - The flu vaccine market has seen a decline, with the market size dropping from 101 billion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 88 billion yuan in 2023, and further projected to decrease to 80 billion yuan in 2024 [14][24]. - In contrast, the antiviral drug market is expanding, with the market size nearing 20 billion yuan in 2023, driven by increased demand for antiviral treatments [14][25]. Group 3: Vaccine and Antiviral Drug Market - The penetration rate of flu vaccines in China is approximately 3%, significantly lower than the nearly 50% in Europe and the U.S., indicating a substantial growth opportunity in the vaccine market [22][24]. - The market for antiviral drugs, particularly neuraminidase inhibitors like Oseltamivir, is currently dominated by a few key players, with a notable increase in demand for new RNA polymerase inhibitors [25][26]. - The introduction of new RNA polymerase inhibitors, such as Marbofloxacin, is expected to reshape the market dynamics, enhancing patient willingness to use these medications due to their improved convenience and safety [26][28].

Core Insights - Nanjing Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical's new flu drug, Jikeshou (Maseiluo Shave Tablets), has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for treating adult uncomplicated influenza, marking a significant advancement in antiviral treatments [1][2] - The flu remains a major public health issue globally, with prevalent strains including H1N1, H3N2, and various B virus lineages [1] - The market for antiviral drugs in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections estimating a market size of 11.6 billion yuan by 2030 [4] Company Developments - Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical's Jikeshou is a new generation PA inhibitor targeting flu virus RNA polymerase, demonstrating prolonged antiviral activity [2] - Other companies, such as Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Qingfeng Pharmaceutical Group, have also launched new antiviral drugs, including Angladiwei and Mashulashave, which target different mechanisms of flu virus replication [2] Market Trends - The antiviral drug market in China is experiencing a shift from traditional neuraminidase inhibitors, like Oseltamivir, which currently holds over 80% market share, to RNA polymerase inhibitors, which are gaining traction [4] - The domestic flu drug market exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2023, with significant growth observed in sales of newer drugs like Mabalosave, which increased from 70 million yuan in 2022 to 630 million yuan in 2023 [4] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with potential price wars emerging as new entrants challenge established products, although differentiation in efficacy and safety may mitigate risks of homogenization [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The flu virus is a highly pathogenic pathogen, and the development of new mechanism drugs is imperative [4] - The flu is a common respiratory infectious disease with a high transmission rate, affecting approximately 1 billion people globally each year, with 300,000 to 500,000 severe cases and 290,000 to 650,000 deaths due to flu-related respiratory diseases [4][15] - The domestic flu drug market has exceeded 10 billion yuan, with Oseltamivir holding over 80% market share, while Baloxavir has seen rapid growth from 0.07 billion yuan in 2022 to 0.63 billion yuan in 2023 [6][36] Summary by Sections 1. Flu Virus and Drug Development - The flu virus is categorized into four types: A, B, C, and D, with A and B being the primary types responsible for widespread outbreaks [17][20] - The main drug targets during flu infection include the surface proteins Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA), with RNA polymerase inhibitors emerging as the mainstream research target in antiviral drug development [5][26] 2. Market Dynamics - The flu drug market in China is projected to grow significantly, with new domestic drugs expected to launch in 2025, enhancing sales potential and company performance [7][36] - The sales of flu drugs in the domestic market reached 11.405 billion yuan in 2023, with Oseltamivir accounting for 86.48% of the market share [36] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Health元, with beneficiaries including Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Xiansheng Pharmaceutical [7]