Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Review**: This week, the mainstream of the double - offset paper market remained stable, with prices of some natural - white specifications falling. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper was 5,163 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the trend turned stable from a decline. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper was 4,862 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (a 0.43% decline), and the decline rate widened by 0.10 percentage points compared to last week. The main influencing factors included stable paper mill offers at the beginning of the month, cautious inventory building by traders, little change in downstream printer orders, and a decline in the average price of upstream wood pulp, weakening cost support [4][52]. - **Short - term Outlook**: In the short term, some production lines in East and Central China have shut down, and the resumption time is unclear. Supply is expected to decrease slightly next week. Since the pick - up time for publication orders has not arrived and social demand is stable, there will be no significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the transaction of base paper will change little next week, with prices remaining stable [4][52]. - **Medium - and Long - term Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, the core contradiction of double - offset paper is that the growth rate of terminal demand cannot cover the growth rate of production capacity. Paper prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the second half of the year. However, due to seasonal demand, there may be a phased high in prices within the year, expected to be from September to October, driven by improved demand and seasonal inventory replenishment by dealers. From a valuation perspective, the phased rebound of pulp prices has led to a decline in paper mill profits and a phased repair of valuation. As the US dollar market enters a price - cut cycle, the negative feedback between pulp and paper is expected to continue, and there is still room for paper prices to fall [4][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Inventory**: As of this Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 1.13% compared to last Thursday, and the increase rate widened by 0.15 percentage points. Some large - scale paper mills intended to build inventory in advance for publication orders, and overall de - stocking was not obvious due to mainly rigid demand from downstream inquiries [6]. - **Production Load**: This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 47.71%, down 0.77 percentage points from last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.58 percentage points. The resumption of some shut - down production lines in Jiangsu was offset by non - resumption in Shandong and maintenance of some lines in Hunan [7]. - **Canadian Pulp Exports to China in April 2025**: Coniferous pulp exports were 126,800 tons, down 32.10% month - on - month and 21.20% year - on - year; hardwood pulp exports were 11,900 tons, down 53.91% month - on - month and 31.64% year - on - year; chemimechanical pulp exports were 83,000 tons, down 0.73% month - on - month and up 2.45% year - on - year [7]. - **Arauco's June 2025 Wood Pulp Offer**: Arauco's offer for coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was 740 US dollars/ton, and for natural - colored pulp (Venus) was 620 US dollars/ton. There was no offer for hardwood pulp (Star), with no supply in June and partial supply expected to resume in July [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Price Data**: The average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper on June 6 was 5,162.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and last week [10]. - **Spot Market and Cost - Profit**: In the Shandong and Guangdong markets, prices of various 70g double - offset paper products remained unchanged week - on - week. Before tax, the pre - tax gross profit increased by 17 yuan, and after tax, the after - tax gross profit decreased by 15 yuan [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: The industry is in a state of over - capacity. In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [17][21]. - **Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization**: This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 157,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 47.7% [26]. - **Weekly Sales and Inventory**: This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry sales were 153,500 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 367,100 tons [32]. - **Imports and Exports**: In April, the import volume of double - offset paper was 13,000 tons, and the export volume was 69,600 tons [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; social inventory pressure was higher than enterprise inventory [44]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：上周双胶纸市场心态有所好转，交投仍显清淡。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为5233元/吨，环比 下跌38元/吨，跌幅0.72%，本周跌幅环比扩大0.08个百分点；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4949元/吨，环比下跌19元/吨，跌幅 0.38%，本周跌幅环比收窄0.26个百分点。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸厂接单未见明显好转，库存压力继 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：本周出货未见明显好转，纸价承压下跌。 ➢ 后续展望：短期来看，纸厂提价乏力，月初报盘略有下滑，经销商去库为主，出版社招标缓慢进行，预计纸价下周仍然承压运行。中长 期趋势来看，从供需格局角度来看，随着终端需求的季节性转弱，在产能的持续投放以及宏观经济的不确定性的大背景下，预计难以见 到贸易商重建纸品库存的信心，本轮浆纸的负反馈尚未结束，盘面仍有下行动力。从估值角度来看， ...