Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Goldwind Technology has shown strong profit performance in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 44.2% to 2.584 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The backlog of orders has slightly decreased, but the average price remains stable [1] - The management's target for onshore power generation is 23 GW, while offshore power generation is set at 2.6 GW [1] Market Outlook - It is expected that China's offshore wind power installed capacity will continue to grow next year [1] Risks and Adjustments - Policy changes pose challenges to the operation and sale of wind farms, potentially leading to impairment risks [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised Goldwind Technology's earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 8% to 10% [1] Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been increased from 10.3 HKD to 12 HKD, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] - The target price for A-shares has been raised from 14.6 CNY to 17 CNY, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 246%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, up 299.4% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 134.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1] - The decline in profitability for the company's tubular racks in Q3 was attributed to increased depreciation and rising external labor costs due to tight delivery schedules [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 of 2025 was 16.2%, an increase of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.4%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company incurred expenses of 190 million yuan during Q1-Q3 of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.4%, with an expense ratio of 5.1%, down 6.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, fixed assets amounted to 2.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 17% increase since the beginning of the year [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to lower-than-expected profitability in Q3 2025, the company has revised its profit forecast for 2025, now expecting a net profit of 510 million yuan, down from a previous estimate of 690 million yuan [2] - The company remains optimistic about the growth of domestic offshore wind installations in 2026 and is actively expanding into overseas markets, leading to an upward revision of the 2026 profit forecast to 920 million yuan [2] - The projected net profit growth for 2025-2027 is 668%/81%/35%, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37.1/20.5/15.2x, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The market is focused on the construction pace of offshore wind projects expected to be connected to the grid in 2025, with an estimated addition of 10-12 GW of new capacity [2][4] - Major provinces contributing to the 2025 offshore wind capacity include Guangdong (4.4 GW), Jiangsu (2.7 GW), and Zhejiang (1.4 GW) [4][16] - The total capacity of offshore wind projects that have been tendered, approved, and competitively allocated is approximately 91.15 GW, indicating significant future growth potential [5][24] Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Offshore Wind Construction Progress - Approximately 10-12 GW of new offshore wind projects are expected to be connected to the grid in 2025, with specific contributions from various provinces [4][16] - The current status of projects includes approximately 1.60 GW tendered, 7.05 GW under construction, and 3.80 GW already connected [4][16] 2. Offshore Wind Project Reserve Capacity - The cumulative capacities for tendered, approved, and competitively allocated offshore wind projects are 17.4 GW, 24.3 GW, and 49.4 GW respectively, totaling about 91.15 GW [5][24] - Potential project capacities by region include Guangdong (28.9 GW), Zhejiang (10.5 GW), and Hainan (10.5 GW) [5][24] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that offshore wind installations are expected to see significant growth in 2025, with a potential industry turning point as construction accelerates [7][41] - The approval process for deep-sea offshore wind projects is speeding up, which may open up long-term growth opportunities [7][41] - Continued recommendations focus on domestic offshore wind and related sectors such as pile foundations, submarine cables, and wind turbines [7][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.35 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, while achieving a net profit of 70 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 290 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 124.6%, although the net profit was negative at -20 million yuan [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the revenue surged to 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251.5%, with a net profit of 60 million yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.355 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 8% [10] - The breakdown of revenue by business segment for 2024 includes: tower tubes at 320 million yuan (-19%), pipe piles at 850 million yuan (-23%), and caissons at 140 million yuan (+7%) [10] - The gross profit margin for tower tubes, pipe piles, and caissons in 2024 is expected to be 7.9%, 4.3%, and 4.8% respectively [10] - The company’s contract liabilities reached 720 million yuan by the end of Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 359.7%, indicating a strong order backlog [10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 750 million yuan in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 18 times [10]