天顺风能 20250822 摘要 天顺风能上半年扣非净利润 2,128 万元，海工装备贡献主要利润，而塔 桶和叶片业务亏损。子公司引入战略投资人导致少数股东权益增加，减 少了归母净利润约 6,200 万元。 2025 年上半年海工装备交付 2.5 万吨，营收 2.1 亿元，净利润 1,044 万元，但二季度因项目推迟出现亏损。预计三季度交付量将显著提升， 全年交付量预计达到 15 万吨左右，可实现盈亏平衡。 路上装备业务收缩，塔桶业务毛利率环比回升，预计未来稳定向好；叶 片业务持续收缩，二季度小幅减亏，预计下半年继续减亏。陆塔预计 2025 年可实现盈利，叶片业务扭亏压力较大，可能要到 2026 年。 发电板块上半年发电量 20.2 亿度，营收 6.9 亿元，净利润 2.3 亿元，毛 利率维持在 65.5%。全年预期收益约为 6 亿元，新一轮机制电价对零碳 业务影响不大。 公司已获取 1,180 兆瓦风电项目指标，860 兆瓦已核准并开工 700 兆 瓦，预计四季度实现 200 兆瓦并网。与大唐合作开发 100 兆瓦风电项 目已开工。 Q&A 天顺风能 2025 年上半年及二季度的业绩情况如何？ 2025 年 ...

Summary of Offshore Wind Pile Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The offshore wind pile industry is expected to recover starting from the second half of 2024, with significant growth in shipment volumes anticipated in 2025, particularly in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces [1][5] - The domestic offshore wind power installation capacity is projected to reach 10GW in 2025, with potential to exceed 15GW in 2026 based on current bidding projects, providing strong growth support for related companies [1][7] Key Points and Arguments - **Profitability Improvement**: The profitability of the offshore wind pile segment is expected to improve due to the marginal effects of depreciation and amortization as the industry scales up, leading to a sustained increase in profitability in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [1][6] - **Deep Sea Projects**: Deep sea projects are identified as a major source of growth elasticity for companies, with projects in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Liaoning set to commence in 2025, transitioning product specifications towards jacket structures [1][8] - **Increased Production Difficulty**: As water depth increases, the production and construction of single piles become more challenging, leading to a higher penetration rate of jacket structures, which require advanced welding technology and equipment [1][9][10] Market Dynamics - **Domestic Market**: The domestic offshore wind construction pace is accelerating, particularly in Jiangsu and Guangdong, with significant increases in shipment volumes expected in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][5] - **Historical Competition**: The market competition in the offshore wind pile industry has been relatively stable, with minor fluctuations in processing fees and prices. The demand volume has been the primary influencing factor [1][4] International Market Opportunities - **Growing Overseas Demand**: The overseas demand for offshore wind power is rapidly increasing, with a medium to long-term plan requiring 15-20GW annually, compared to only 3GW last year. This presents export opportunities for domestic companies, especially in jacket products [1][11][12] - **Advantages of Domestic Companies**: Domestic companies have significant advantages in production capacity, cost efficiency, and delivery reliability, positioning them well to capture overseas market opportunities [1][12] Strategic Responses - **Head Companies' Strategies**: Leading domestic companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, with notable actions including stable deliveries by Dajin, acquisitions by Tiensun, and new base constructions by Haili to meet future demand [2][13] - **Short-term and Long-term Profit Outlook**: In the short term, the industry is expected to experience a recovery in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, while the long-term outlook remains positive due to the acceleration of deep sea projects and increasing overseas demand [1][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to leverage the significant potential and policy benefits of the European offshore wind market over the next 3-5 years, with opportunities for market share expansion in emerging markets like Japan and South Korea [1][15] - The company has established a leading position in the offshore pile export market, transitioning to a "manufacturing + service" full industry chain model, which enhances its order growth and profitability [2][3] - The company has successfully completed the switch to a DAP (Delivered at Place) product model, enhancing its service capabilities and increasing order value [2][25] - The company is proactively entering the floating foundation market, forming a dedicated team in Europe and collaborating with leading international solution providers to reduce overall costs [3][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region to deliver offshore products to the European market, having successfully entered this market since 2019 and securing multiple overseas project orders since 2022 [2][21] - The company has a robust order backlog, covering major European offshore wind market players [2][21] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 65.1 billion, 84.0 billion, and 97.4 billion CNY respectively, with a significant increase in net profit forecasted to 10.5 billion, 13.7 billion, and 17.6 billion CNY [3][33] - The company expects a substantial growth in net profit, with year-on-year increases of 122%, 30%, and 28% for the respective years [3][33] Market Positioning - The company has completed the layout of three major offshore engineering bases, enhancing its production capacity and positioning itself as a key player in the global offshore engineering market [16][22] - The company is actively participating in the bidding for offshore wind projects in Japan and South Korea, establishing strong relationships with key players in these markets [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier of offshore wind power equipment in China, focusing on the research, production, and sales of wind power equipment components, with a primary emphasis on offshore wind power equipment [6]. - The offshore wind power industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with the company’s revenue anticipated to significantly increase due to the resolution of previous project delays and the commencement of bulk shipments in 2025 [7]. - The company has a robust production capacity in key offshore wind power cluster areas, ensuring the delivery of its products [8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 64.82 billion, 81.95 billion, and 95.85 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.25, 4.34, and 5.32 yuan, indicating strong growth potential [9][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in offshore wind power equipment, producing components such as wind power tower cylinders, pile foundations, and booster stations, with a focus on the 12MW and above high-power market [6]. Market Dynamics - The offshore wind power sector faced a slowdown from 2021 to 2023 due to regulatory and logistical challenges, but these issues are being resolved, paving the way for renewed growth [7]. Production Capacity - The company has established multiple production bases across key regions, including Zhejiang and Guangdong, to meet the increasing demand for offshore wind power products [8]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 378.5% in 2025 compared to 2024, and continued growth in subsequent years [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Daikin Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., plans to issue H-shares for overseas listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, driven by rapid growth in its international business and the need to enhance its global strategic layout [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Daikin Heavy Industries is the first listed company in China's wind power tower pile sector and a global leader in offshore wind power infrastructure and tower solutions [2]. - The company specializes in the production and sales of offshore wind single pile foundations, transition pieces, jacket foundations, floating foundations, and tower products, providing a comprehensive solution for offshore wind equipment [2]. Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has been advancing its "Two Seas Strategy," focusing on high technical standards, quality requirements, and high added value in the offshore wind power market of developed countries [2]. - Daikin Heavy Industries has achieved rapid growth in overseas business, securing significant contracts in Europe and making progress in markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects to achieve export revenue of 1.733 billion yuan, accounting for 45.85% of its total operating revenue for the year [2]. - The company aims to become the market leader in offshore wind power in major developed economies within the next 3 to 5 years [2]. Group 4: Purpose of H-Share Listing - The primary reason for the H-share listing is the significant contribution of overseas business to the company's performance, necessitating a solid global strategic layout [3]. - The funds raised from the H-share listing will be used for business development, including technology innovation, capacity expansion, market expansion, strategic investments, and working capital [3].

Group 1: Virtual Power Plants - The development of virtual power plants (VPPs) is supported by recent government policies aimed at enhancing their scale and operational capabilities, with a target of achieving a regulation capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and 50 million kilowatts by 2030 [3][28][31] - VPPs utilize modern information communication and system integration technologies to aggregate distributed energy resources, providing essential services such as peak shaving, frequency regulation, and backup power, thereby enhancing grid stability and facilitating renewable energy consumption [24][20][39] - The market for VPPs is expected to grow as they transition from invitation-based models to market-driven operations, allowing for participation in various electricity markets and increasing profitability [39][46] Group 2: Wind Power Industry - The bidding prices for domestic wind turbines have stabilized and begun to recover, with the average bidding price reaching 1,590 yuan/kW in March 2025, a 4.1% increase from December 2024 [52] - China's onshore wind power generation cost has significantly decreased, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) dropping to 0.019 USD/kWh in 2023, a 67% reduction since 2017, making it competitive against coal [49][51] - The wind power industry is experiencing a trend towards larger turbine sizes and innovative materials, with advancements in tower height and blade length contributing to further cost reductions and efficiency improvements [54][55]

Summary of the Offshore Wind Pile Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The offshore wind pile industry is experiencing a turning point in Q2 2025, driven by accelerated project commencement in offshore wind projects, with new construction volume increasing by over 20% year-on-year from January to May, primarily in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces [1][2] - The domestic offshore wind installation capacity is expected to exceed 10 GW this year and reach 15 GW next year, supported by a robust pipeline of projects nearing 28 GW [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - The heavy asset nature of the pile segment results in a lower fixed asset turnover rate compared to other segments like submarine cables and wind turbines, with depreciation costs accounting for approximately 15% of total costs [1][3][5] - A significant increase in shipment volume is anticipated, which will dilute unit costs and drive rapid recovery in net profit per ton, leading to substantial year-on-year growth in Q2 performance [1][3] - The deep-sea development trend and the potential of the offshore wind export market are significant growth drivers for the industry [1][6] Market Dynamics - The application ratio of jacket foundations is expected to rise due to their cost-effectiveness in deep-water environments, with widespread adoption in regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang [1][7][8] - The overseas offshore wind market is in its early development stage but has optimistic long-term goals, with expected annual installation capacity exceeding 15 GW in the future, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region [1][9] Opportunities for Domestic Companies - Domestic companies such as Dajin, Tienshun, and Haili are seizing opportunities in the overseas market, having achieved large-scale order acquisition and actively advancing international projects [2][10] - The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for investors to focus on leading companies in the offshore wind sector, especially as 2025 is identified as a year of significant growth [2][11] Additional Important Points - The construction peak season from April to October is expected to lead to a noticeable increase in shipment volumes [2][6] - The complexity of jacket production limits new capacity, which is primarily concentrated among leading companies, contributing to a stable industry structure [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the offshore wind pile industry [12] Core Insights - Recent market attention on the pile segment has increased, with stock price fluctuations primarily driven by performance, which is closely linked to downstream construction volume and company shipment volume [5][8] - In the short term, the offshore wind pile industry is expected to benefit from increased downstream construction in Q2, leading to a dual increase in volume and profit, thereby releasing performance elasticity [9][11] - The long-term outlook suggests that deep-sea development will open up growth opportunities for the pile industry, while overseas offshore wind installations are anticipated to experience significant growth, with domestic companies accelerating overseas expansion [10][11] Summary by Sections Introduction: Volume as the Core Factor Affecting Pile Segment Performance - The report identifies that stock price movements in the pile segment are mainly influenced by performance, which is affected by downstream construction and shipment volumes [8][18] Short-term: Q2 Expected to Mark a Performance Turning Point, with Support for 2025-2026 Outlook - The offshore wind pile industry is projected to benefit from increased construction activity in Q2, with a year-to-date increase in offshore wind construction volume of 23% [9][24] - The report anticipates that the increase in shipments will lead to significant cost dilution effects, enhancing profitability for related companies [9][22] Long-term: Deep-sea Development Opens Industry Growth Space, Offshore Wind Expansion Releases Growth Elasticity - The shift towards deep-sea offshore wind is expected to create long-term growth opportunities for the pile industry, with significant growth anticipated in overseas installations [10][44] - The report highlights that domestic companies are accelerating their overseas expansion efforts, which is expected to release performance growth elasticity [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic offshore wind pile companies that are expected to benefit from increased construction activity in the short term and have growth potential in the long term due to deep-sea development and overseas expansion [11][86]

Group 1 - The report highlights the optimistic growth in the global power equipment market, projected to exceed $700 billion by 2025, with significant investments in the power grid expected to surpass $450 billion [3][23] - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end diesel generator market, benefiting from strategic partnerships and a robust supply chain, which enhances its pricing power [3][24] - Revenue forecasts for the company indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 2.76 billion, 3.76 billion, and 4.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 689%, 36%, and 26% [3][24] Group 2 - The offshore wind power sector is anticipated to experience a new wave of growth, with domestic installations expected to reach 12 GW in 2025, a 200% increase year-on-year [4][6] - The company is expanding its production capacity and focusing on the deep-sea wind market, with significant investments in export terminals to meet growing international demand [4][6] - Profit forecasts for the company suggest net profits of 8.6 billion, 11.0 billion, and 13.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.8, 12.3, and 10.3 [4][6] Group 3 - The nuclear power sector is witnessing accelerated investment, with completed investments reaching 36.26 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, a 36.64% year-on-year increase [12][27] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the modular construction market for nuclear power, with a projected market size of approximately 864 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030 [12][28] - Expected net profits for the company are projected to be 2.3 billion, 2.5 billion, and 2.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 19, and 16 [12][30] Group 4 - The magnesium alloy market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on expanding its production capacity to meet increasing demand in various sectors, including aerospace and automotive [7][31] - Revenue for the company is expected to reach 4.09 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 16.01% year-on-year increase, with continued growth anticipated in subsequent years [7][31] - The company is actively integrating into the lightweight strategy of leading automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market position [7][31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.74 CNY based on a 20x PE for 2025 [5][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of demand in offshore wind energy, particularly in China and Europe, with significant growth expected in domestic offshore wind installations starting in 2025 [3][9]. - The company has a robust production capacity expansion plan, aiming to increase its annual production capacity from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons by 2025, supported by strategic investments in various port facilities [2][3]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings to include a broader range of offshore engineering equipment, enhancing its competitive edge in the deep-sea market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 15 years of experience in the offshore wind component manufacturing sector and is a leading supplier in China [1][13]. - It operates under a dual strategy of "offshore + overseas," focusing on equipment manufacturing, renewable energy development, and operation and maintenance [1][13]. Market Demand - The report highlights a significant increase in offshore wind installation demand in both China and Europe, with projections indicating a 200% year-on-year increase in new installations in China by 2025 [9][35]. - In Europe, the offshore wind market is expected to see a 73% year-on-year increase in new installations in 2025, with a total of 48 GW expected from 2025 to 2030 [9][46]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has established multiple production bases across various provinces, with a current production capacity of 1 million tons, set to increase to 1.5 million tons by 2025 [2][3]. - The company is strategically investing in port facilities to support its export capabilities, particularly targeting the European market where there is a significant supply gap [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a substantial recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 855.87 million CNY, 1.1 billion CNY, and 1.31 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in revenue, with estimates of 6.58 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 385.78% compared to 2024 [4][3]. Product Development - The company is expanding its product line to include a diversified range of offshore engineering equipment, moving beyond traditional wind turbine components [2][3]. - The focus on deep-sea markets is expected to drive innovation and product development, with increased R&D investment planned for 2024 [2][3].