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国联民生证券:8月空调内销平稳外销好转 相对估值处于历史低位
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 06:35
Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning market shows stable domestic sales with slight growth in August, driven by policy support and the implementation of local replacement standards for 2024, leading to a narrowing of the sales decline [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Performance - In August, the production of household air conditioners reached 12.88 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.43%, while sales totaled 13.02 million units, a slight decline of 1.04% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic sales amounted to 7.74 million units, up 1.22% year-on-year, while exports were 5.29 million units, down 4.18% year-on-year [1]. - Major manufacturers showed varied performance: Gree's sales decreased by 3.39%, Midea's by 9.21%, Haier's increased by 15.63%, and Hisense's by 6.71% [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The air conditioning market is expected to see a year-on-year sales increase of 20% from September to December 2024, although the base is high, leading to a projected decline of 6%-7% in domestic sales during this period [2]. - The overall performance of the white goods sector has been weak since Q3, with pricing strategies and policy impacts likely having been fully reflected in current valuations [5]. Group 3: Export Sales Trends - In August, external sales of household air conditioners decreased by 4%, but the decline is narrowing, indicating a potential recovery phase [4]. - The recent suspension of the 24% tariff increase for 90 days may positively impact export orders, with expectations of a 47% year-on-year increase in external sales from September to December 2024 [4]. Group 4: Industry Recommendations - The air conditioning sector maintains a "stronger than market" rating, with a focus on leading companies such as Midea, Haier, Hisense, and Gree, which are expected to perform well due to their resilience and high dividend yields [5].