9月24日，"国庆享国补·十一来苏宁玩大的"山东苏宁易购国庆中秋双节启动会暨国融大厦苏宁易购Pro超级旗舰店盛大开业发布会在济南举办。记者获悉， 山东苏宁易购9月26日正式开启国庆狂欢补贴季，国补人人享、苏宁加码补。济南槐荫首家苏宁易购Pro超级旗舰店国融大厦店、济宁首家苏宁Home吾悦广 场店迎来正式盛大开业，苏宁在山东市场实现新一轮重磅布局。山东省家用电器行业协会会长田占军、济南市商务局市场运行和消费促进处副处长夏鹏、历 下区商务服务中心副主任张莉，百位家电3C品牌工厂领导、中国银联、媒体及苏宁易购团队等出席。 山东作为经济大省、人口大省，消费市场潜力巨大。恰逢国家"以旧换新"政策全面推进和金九银十家装消费旺季，苏宁易购以顶格优惠、新店开业、沉浸体 验和全链服务重塑山东家电零售新格局，提升市场覆盖和服务能力，为消费者带来盛世钜惠。山东省家用电器行业协会会长田占军表示，在家电行业同质化 时代，苏宁易购以全新的业态给消费者带来不一样的电器购物体验，非常值得肯定和推广。 十一大补贴大满足 国补人人享 苏宁易购家电3C大补贴大惊喜大满足，国补叠加厂补苏宁补银行补至高补50%，购物满额送食物油，购指定智能门锁送电动 ...

基本生活类商品稳定增长。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位粮油食品类商品零售额同比增长5.8%，饮料类商品零售额同比增长18.9%，日用品类商品零售额 同比增长8.4%。以上三类商品零售额合计占全市限额以上单位消费品零售额的比重为13.3%，拉动增长0.9个百分点。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点记者管悦 9月24日，济南市统计局公布1-8月份消费品市场相关情况。记者获悉，今年以来，济南市扎实推动扩内需促消费政策落实落细，消费需求逐步释放，全市 消费品市场保持平稳运行。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位消费品零售额1319.2亿元，同比增长2.1%。 线上消费活力不断提升。随着电商直播、即时零售等线上消费新场景的不断拓展，济南市线上消费动能进一步释放。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位通过 公共网络实现的商品零售额同比增长21.2%，拉动全市限额以上单位消费品零售额增长4.8个百分点。占全市限额以上单位消费品零售额的比重由去年全年 的23.2%提升至26.7%。 新能源汽车保持较高热度。随着新能源汽车技术不断提质升级，叠加消费者观念转变，济南市新能源汽车销售市场热度不减。1-8月份，济南市限额以上 单位新能源汽车零售额同比增长12. ...

Group 1 - The government has implemented measures against "involution" to address vicious competition in industries such as coal and photovoltaics, leading to a narrowing of industrial product price declines and signs of core price recovery [1][5][7] - "Involution" refers to companies engaging in price wars to gain market share, resulting in reduced profits and lower product quality, which ultimately suppresses prices [3][5] - The reduction in price declines is evident in various sectors, including coal processing and steel, where prices have stabilized, and even in the new energy sector, where price drops have slowed [5][10] Group 2 - The approach to "involution" is distinct from past supply-side adjustments, focusing on a broader range of industries and employing more flexible methods rather than simply cutting production capacity [9][10] - The government has introduced regulations to prevent low-price dumping and has created a blacklist for companies engaging in vicious competition, aiming to stabilize the market [12][14] - The strategy not only addresses existing competition issues but also encourages innovation and quality improvement among companies, shifting the focus from price competition to technological and brand superiority [14][16] Group 3 - Despite improvements on the supply side, achieving the 2% inflation target requires addressing demand-side issues, as consumer spending remains low and investment willingness from companies is weak [16][18] - The current economic environment shows a disparity between production recovery and consumer spending, leading to an oversupply situation [18][24] - To stimulate demand, policies should encourage consumer spending, particularly in services, and support employment initiatives for young people to increase disposable income [19][21][24]

存量博弈、增长放缓、同质化竞争加剧，是当下家电行业面临的严峻挑战。与此同时，渠道变革不断深 化、消费需求持续升级，也在深刻重塑着行业格局。2024年，以旧换新国补的落地，为整个家电行业带 来了难得的普惠性机遇。在如此复杂而又充满转折的背景下，该如何实现可持续增长与价值跃迁？ 天猫优品线上自营官方旗舰店的实践，或许可以为我们提供一个观察窗口。成立仅一年时间，天猫优品 自营店铺GMV便突破了100亿。这一堪称行业现象级的成绩是如何实现的呢？ 将天猫优品线上自营官方旗舰店这一年来的发展，置于国补时间线与家电行业转型大背景下审视，可以 清晰看到其发展路径按照四个阶段在进阶：国补基建、供给升级、用户增长、精细运营，这每一步都精 准契合了政策导向与市场需求的衔接点。 在这一演进过程中，天猫优品不仅搭建起贯通上下的国补基础设施，更通过持续的供给升级与全域运 营，真正将政策红利转化为了可持续的消费增长。 完成国补基建 助力品牌搭快车 优化供给结构 拓展全品类矩阵 如今，家电、家居、数码、快消的跨品类融合与场景化购齐成为消费主流，这一转变背后是中国家庭消 费的深层变迁，这就要求平台跳出单一卖货思维，完成从提供商品到输出全场景生 ...

淡化节奏波动，稳健底色不改 8月美的/格力/海尔空调内销量分别同比-17%/持平/+27%，海信/奥克斯分别+50%/+56%，龙头表现分 化，海尔海信延续高增。近期产业在线监测厂商内销增速波动较大，主因或一在政策启动阶段参与节奏 导致的基数差异；二在618后美的/海尔系价格趋势环比向上，8月奥维监测美的系空调线上/线下零售均 价分别同比+6%/持平，而25H1分别同比-9%/-4%，需求平淡环境中，量增让位价格。海尔系8月安装卡 同比+20%+，增势延续，1-8月内销出货量份额同比+1pct至14%。 国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，8月空调内销出货同比平稳略增，2024年同期以旧换新地方准则 陆续落地，政策带动显现，内销降幅收窄；剔除基数波动，当月内销较2023/2019同期CAGR表现平 稳。展望后续，9-12月空调内外销出货基数均偏高，增速大概率放缓；而Q3以来白电板块表现偏弱， 基数、政策及关税短期影响定价或已较充分，相对估值回落至历史低位，龙头韧性经营。当下政策支撑 内需，海外或已度过本轮周期底部，降息利好需求修复，出海逻辑不改。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 产业在线发布8月空调产销数据 ...

Economic Overview - In August, Guangdong's economy showed overall stability despite a complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand [1] - From January to August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 2.2% year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector growing by 2.6% [1][2] Key Industries Performance - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a 7.0% increase in added value, while the automotive manufacturing industry grew by 8.3% [1][2] - The production of industrial robots, service robots, and civilian drones increased by 32.1%, 17.3%, and 54.7% respectively [2] - Clean energy products also showed strong growth, with wind turbine units, solar cells, and new energy vehicles increasing by 43.3%, 81.5%, and 21.9% respectively [2] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first eight months, with urban consumption growing by 3.4% and rural consumption by 1.3% [2][3] - Retail sales through public networks grew by 17.9%, accounting for 43.7% of total retail sales, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from the previous year [3] Service Sector Growth - The revenue of the service industry above designated size reached 3.38 trillion yuan, marking a 7.0% year-on-year increase [4] - Key sectors such as information transmission, software and IT services, and transportation services reported revenue growth of 9.2%, 6.9%, and 8.7% respectively [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in investments in the transportation sector, including rail and water transport [4][5] - Investment in research and experimental development increased by 15.4%, indicating a focus on innovation [5] - Investment in modern service industries, particularly in internet and related services, grew by 63.8% [5]

Core Insights - The overall consumption market in China remains stable, with a retail sales total of 3.97 trillion yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to August reached 32.39 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - Goods retail sales in August increased by 3.6%, with significant growth in sales of old-for-new related products, particularly in furniture (18.6%), home appliances (14.3%), cultural and office supplies (14.2%), and communication equipment (7.3%) [1] - Key retail enterprises reported year-on-year sales growth in tablets (20.7%), smart air conditioners (17.7%), and mobile phones (8.2%) in August [1] - Passenger car retail volume also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in August [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service consumption experienced rapid growth, driven by increased demand for tourism and leisure activities during the summer [1] - From January to August, service retail sales grew by 5.1%, with notable increases in cultural and recreational services, tourism consulting and leasing, and transportation services [1] - The film market thrived during the summer, with total box office revenue reaching 11.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New types of consumption, including digital, green, and health-related consumption, are rapidly developing, with online retail sales reaching 1 trillion yuan in the first eight months, a year-on-year growth of 9.6% [2] - Physical goods online retail sales amounted to 810 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.4% [2] - In August, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 7.5%, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [2] Group 4: Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption is expanding, supported by effective tax refund policies and the "Buy in China" initiative [2] - As of the end of August, the number of tax refund stores exceeded 10,000, with sales of tax refund goods increasing by 97.5% year-on-year in the first eight months [2] - The number of individuals benefiting from tax refunds has increased by 2.5 times year-on-year [2]

转自：新华财经 今年以来，一系列扩内需、促消费政策发力显效，我国消费市场平稳增长，消费新动能持续壮大。交通 银行积极贯彻落实党中央、国务院提振消费重要决策部署，结合"以旧换新""数码家电国补"等促消费政 策，精准捕捉商户参与国补活动相关资金需求，面向家居家电、3C数码等经销商推出以国补数据核额 的线上纯信用个人经营贷产品——"国补贷"，向消费市场注入金融活水。 交行本次上线的"国补贷"产品，结合商户信息、国补商品销售情况、国补获取情况等综合评估授信额 度，最高可授信300万元，真正做到为国补经销商客群量身定制，助力政策红利直达市场主体。 "如果没有交行的这款产品，短时间内我很难拿到这么符合我需求的贷款。"一家数码专卖店的店主老侯 如此感慨道："这下好了，国庆销售旺季到来之前我有资金多备货了。""国补贷"产品不仅解决了家电、 数码、家装厨卫等行业经销商在备货资金方面的燃眉之急，还进一步增强了经营者在消费旺季抢占市场 的信心和底气，对进一步释放国补政策效应和消费市场资金循环均有促进作用。 为高效惠及更多商户，交行围绕"国补贷"打造数智化运营模式，总行统一开发系统，属地化对接数据， 既实现供应链场景资源高效复用，又 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the motorcycle industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry continues to experience high demand, with fuel motorcycle sales reaching 1.5635 million units in August, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%. The sales of large-displacement recreational motorcycles (over 250cc) grew by 23.60% to 84,500 units [3][14]. - Exports of motorcycles in August totaled 1.1242 million units, marking a 20.69% increase year-on-year, with export revenue reaching $759 million, up 31.24% [3][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in domestic demand supported by policy initiatives, particularly in the home appliance sector, with recommendations to focus on major appliance brands like Midea Group, Haier, and Gree Electric [4][39]. Summary by Sections Motorcycle Industry - The report notes that Changan Power's motorcycle sales reached 50,000 units in August, a 73% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 49% [14]. - Longxin General's motorcycle sales were 117,000 units, down 25% year-on-year, but large-displacement sales increased by 29% [23]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's total sales were 34,000 units, with exports surging by 85% year-on-year, indicating strong growth despite a slight decline in domestic demand [33]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.3%, with specific segments like black appliances and kitchen appliances showing positive trends [4][41]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in consumer demand for large appliances due to trade-in programs, suggesting a focus on brands like TCL and Hisense [4][39]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities, including: 1. Large appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, recommending brands like Midea and Haier [4][39]. 2. The pet industry as a resilient sector, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. highlighted [4][39]. 3. Electric two-wheelers expected to see improved domestic sales, with companies like Ninebot and Yadea recommended [4][39]. 4. The global expansion of Chinese brands in clean appliances and tools, with a focus on companies like Roborock and Kingclean [5][40].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the home appliance sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by rising 1.6% while the index fell by 0.4% [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the joint issuance of policies by nine departments aimed at expanding service consumption, which includes 19 specific measures to promote service consumption [9][63]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to provide greater operational space for China's monetary policy, potentially alleviating depreciation pressure on the RMB [10]. - The report notes a rise in average prices for major home appliances, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing varying trends in sales volume and revenue [29][31][33][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The joint policy measures aim to enhance service consumption through promotional activities and improved access to cultural and recreational venues [9][63]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut signals potential further reductions, which could impact foreign investment flows into RMB assets [10]. Data Observations - In August, the average retail price of air conditioners increased by 0.32% year-on-year, with retail volume up by 2.2% and retail revenue up by 2.9% [29]. - Refrigerator sales volume decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, but revenue increased by 3.8%, with the average price rising by 2.4% to 6438 RMB [31]. - Washing machine sales volume and revenue both declined by 0.4% and 7.4% respectively, while the average price increased by 5.5% to 4364 RMB [33]. Investment Highlights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. White goods sector benefiting from favorable real estate policies and potential for price and volume growth [29]. 2. Export opportunities driven by large customer orders and stable profitability for companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Shares [29]. 3. Core components demand exceeding expectations due to the white goods sector's performance, recommending companies like Huaxiang and Shun'an Environment for their competitive advantages [29].