风电整机专家交流 20260106 风电行业边际企稳，国内市场受益于经济效益改善，海外市场规模化后 盈利能力将显著提升，单位利润远高于国内，行业整体向上趋势明显。 风电板块公司估值普遍在十倍左右，考虑到业绩兑现度和未来增长潜力， 具备较高投资价值，且筹码交易不拥挤，风机制造板块存在大机会，龙 头企业如金风科技市值突破千亿是重要信号。 预计 2026 年风电整体交付量将达 160GW 以上，供应链紧张推动零部 件价格上涨，但涨幅预计小于去年，部分零部件如叶片、铸件价格有所 回落，整体价格保持稳定。 海外市场对中国风电整机厂商影响重大，订单量同比增长 50%以上，但 订单转化为交付和收入节奏较慢，盈利能力提升将在未来几年逐步体现。 2025 年风电行业出货量预计增长约 20%，达到 160 台，价格基本持平， 叶片价格可能略有下降，轴承价格有所上涨，零部件供应链谈价困难但 进一步涨价动力不足，主机厂商利润有望提升。 2026 年，由于限价政策影响，风机价格提升 10%-15%，主机厂商毛 利率预计至少提升 5 个百分点以上，头部厂商海外市场占比增加，毛利 率有望显著提升。 摘要 预计 2025 年招标量将保持在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The overseas wind power market is experiencing a recovery, with most companies reporting revenue growth and improved profitability in Q1 2025. The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the wind power industry, particularly in the areas of wind turbines, submarine cables, and pipe piles [11][94]. Summary by Sections Wind Turbines - Most companies in the wind turbine segment reported year-on-year revenue growth and improved profitability in Q1 2025. Vestas, Nordex, and Siemens Energy achieved revenues of €3.5 billion, €1.4 billion, and €10 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, -9%, and 20% [17][15]. - Vestas' wind turbine revenue reached €2.5 billion, up 43% year-on-year, while Siemens Energy's wind turbine revenue increased by 17% to €2.7 billion. The increase in revenue is attributed to higher shipment volumes and prices [15][18]. - The order book for wind turbines remains at historical highs, with Vestas, Nordex, and Siemens Energy reporting backlogs of €32.9 billion, €8.2 billion, and €36 billion respectively [28][30]. Submarine Cables - Submarine cable companies reported revenue growth, with Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT achieving revenues of €4.77 billion, €1.82 billion, and €630 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.4%, 7.3%, and 17.5% [46]. - The EBITDA for Prysmian's submarine cable business reached €120 million, up 100% year-on-year, indicating strong project deliveries and high-value order execution [47][46]. - The order book for submarine cables is robust, with Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT reporting backlogs of €16.3 billion, €8.1 billion, and €14.2 billion respectively, indicating high demand in the market [61][62]. Pipe Piles - Sif, a leading pipe pile manufacturer, reported a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year, reaching €13 million in Q1 2025, driven by higher product prices despite a decrease in shipment volume [73][72]. - The company’s EBITDA was approximately €1 million, with an EBITDA margin of 7%, slightly down from the previous year [73][76]. - Sif's order book increased to approximately 46,500 tons, with contract liabilities reaching €18.5 million, the highest since 2019, indicating a solid foundation for future deliveries [87][88]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overseas wind turbine, submarine cable, and pipe pile sectors are poised for growth, particularly as submarine cable companies report increased order books. The overall market conditions are favorable for domestic industry leaders to expand their presence in overseas markets [94].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The overseas wind power market is experiencing a recovery, with most companies reporting revenue growth and improved profitability in Q1 2025. The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the wind power sector, particularly in the offshore wind segment [15][19][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Wind Turbines - Most companies in the wind turbine segment reported revenue growth in Q1 2025, with Vestas, Nordex, and Siemens Energy achieving revenues of €3.5 billion, €1.4 billion, and €10 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +29%, -9%, and +20% [24]. - Vestas' wind turbine business revenue reached €2.5 billion, up 43% year-on-year, while Siemens Energy's increased by 17% to €2.7 billion, driven by higher sales of offshore wind turbines [24][38]. - New orders varied among companies, with Vestas and Nordex seeing increases of 77% and 7% respectively, while Siemens Energy's new orders declined by 1% [40]. - The backlog of orders for Vestas, Nordex, and Siemens Energy stood at €32.9 billion, €8.2 billion, and €36 billion respectively, indicating a strong demand in the market [40]. 2. Submarine Cables - Submarine cable companies reported revenue growth, with Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT achieving revenues of €4.77 billion, €1.82 billion, and €630 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 29.4%, 7.3%, and 17.5% [61]. - The EBITDA for Prysmian's submarine cable business was €120 million, up 100% year-on-year, while NKT's EBITDA was €60 million, reflecting a 9.6% increase [62]. - The backlog of orders for submarine cable companies reached historical highs, with Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT reporting €16.3 billion, €8.1 billion, and €14.2 billion respectively [76]. 3. Piles - Sif, a major player in the pile segment, reported a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year to €13 million, despite a 7.1% decline in production volume [89]. - The EBITDA for Sif was approximately €1 million, with an EBITDA margin of 7%, slightly down from the previous year [89]. - As of March 31, 2025, Sif's backlog of orders was approximately 46,500 tons, an increase of about 2,000 tons from the previous year, indicating a solid pipeline for future deliveries [101]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall growth in revenue and orders across the wind turbine, submarine cable, and pile sectors reflects a recovery in the offshore wind market. It recommends focusing on leading domestic companies in the submarine cable and pile segments for potential investment opportunities [110].