天顺风能 20250822 摘要 天顺风能上半年扣非净利润 2,128 万元，海工装备贡献主要利润，而塔 桶和叶片业务亏损。子公司引入战略投资人导致少数股东权益增加，减 少了归母净利润约 6,200 万元。 2025 年上半年海工装备交付 2.5 万吨，营收 2.1 亿元，净利润 1,044 万元，但二季度因项目推迟出现亏损。预计三季度交付量将显著提升， 全年交付量预计达到 15 万吨左右，可实现盈亏平衡。 路上装备业务收缩，塔桶业务毛利率环比回升，预计未来稳定向好；叶 片业务持续收缩，二季度小幅减亏，预计下半年继续减亏。陆塔预计 2025 年可实现盈利，叶片业务扭亏压力较大，可能要到 2026 年。 发电板块上半年发电量 20.2 亿度，营收 6.9 亿元，净利润 2.3 亿元，毛 利率维持在 65.5%。全年预期收益约为 6 亿元，新一轮机制电价对零碳 业务影响不大。 公司已获取 1,180 兆瓦风电项目指标，860 兆瓦已核准并开工 700 兆 瓦，预计四季度实现 200 兆瓦并网。与大唐合作开发 100 兆瓦风电项 目已开工。 Q&A 天顺风能 2025 年上半年及二季度的业绩情况如何？ 2025 年 ...

证券代码： 002531 证券简称：天顺风能 天顺风能(苏州)股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-002 投资者关系活动 类别 ☑ 特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 □ 媒体采访 □ 业绩说明会 □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 □ 现场参观 ☑ 其他：电话会议 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 参会人员名单见后续附表 时间 2025 年 08 月 22 日(周五) 上午 9:00-10:00 地点 电话会议 上市公司接待人 员姓名 1、董事会秘书 朱彬； 2、投资者关系总监 邓子龙； 交流内容及具体 问答记录 一、公司经营情况介绍 2025 年上半年，天顺风能坚定推进"新能源装备制造+零碳 实业发展"双轮驱动战略，持续深化战略转型与全球化布局。 海工装备制造板块优化全球产能布局，广东阳江基地进入投 产冲刺阶段，射阳二期扩建启动，德国基地建设稳步推进，面向 "国内 + 海外"多元市场形成协同业务体系，依托通州湾基地 拓展高附加值海工业务；零碳实业板块在风电资源开发等方面取 得阶段性进展，在建项目按计划推进，绿电交易探索取得进展， 自营电站并网容量的增长也提升了财务韧性。展望下半年，公司 将坚持"制造 + 服务 ...

Group 1: Company Analysis - 长光华芯 - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 94.28 million, and a significant reduction in net loss to 7.5 million [3][4] - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 28 million, 99 million, and 208 million respectively, with a target price set at 70.86 yuan based on a PE of 60.05x for 2027 [3][4] - The company has successfully launched three key products in the optical communication sector, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the context of increasing demand from AI data centers [4] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Transportation - The central government's emphasis on "anti-involution" is expected to promote deeper industry reforms, benefiting sectors such as aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations [5][6] - The aviation sector is anticipated to improve revenue management strategies, which will help mitigate excessive price competition and enhance profitability [7] - The express delivery industry is likely to see a more favorable competitive environment due to regulatory measures against "involution," which may lead to the concentration of market share among leading firms [8] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Renewable Energy - The solar energy sector is experiencing positive momentum due to new policies aimed at increasing renewable energy consumption, with silicon material prices on the rise [31][32] - The wind energy sector is expected to maintain strong installation growth, supported by long project cycles and increasing demand for offshore wind projects [35][37] - The digital transformation of the energy sector is accelerating, driven by government initiatives to enhance the integration of information technology and energy industries [38]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses various sectors including small metals, PCB storage, wind power, insurance, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, military industry, gaming, communication equipment, and traditional defensive sectors like insurance and electricity. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Industry Recovery Indicators**: The overall industry prosperity index showed a rebound in June after declines in April and May, indicating a potential continuation of fundamental recovery in the second half of the year [1][5][19]. 2. **Focus on Specific Sectors**: Attention is drawn to sectors likely to see improved performance in Q2, including small metals, PCB storage, wind power insurance, and independent-driven cycles like pharmaceuticals and military [1][5]. 3. **Export Challenges**: The export chain faces downward pressure, particularly in appliances, engineering machinery, and consumer electronics [1][5]. 4. **Valuation and Market Strategy**: A focus on sectors with low PE/PB ratios and non-crowded public holdings is recommended, while high valuations may be tolerated in high-prosperity sectors like gaming [1][7]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A "barbell" strategy is suggested, with offensive investments in wind power, photovoltaics, gaming, communication equipment, and small metals, while defensive investments shift towards insurance, agriculture, and electricity [1][9]. 6. **Wind Power Sector Outlook**: The wind power sector shows significant year-on-year growth in new installations, with expectations for continued growth into 2025, although a potential decline is anticipated in 2026 [1][11]. 7. **Photovoltaic Sector Concerns**: The photovoltaic sector has shown some recovery, but concerns remain regarding overseas exports and supply-side pressures, particularly with high inventory levels [1][12]. 8. **Gaming Industry Growth**: The gaming industry is experiencing an upward product cycle, with a record number of game approvals in June, indicating sustained performance growth [1][13]. 9. **Communication Equipment Performance**: The communication equipment sector is benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure, leading to improved industry conditions [1][14]. 10. **Small Metals and Aerospace**: Small metals like rare earths and tungsten are seeing price increases due to improved demand in military and new energy sectors, while aerospace equipment is also showing signs of recovery [1][15]. 11. **Traditional Defensive Sectors**: The insurance sector is evolving in both liability and investment aspects, while the electricity sector is benefiting from improved electricity consumption growth [1][16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Global Factors**: Global markets are showing improved risk appetite due to a reduction in tariff concerns, which is positively impacting the A-share market [1][18][22]. 2. **Sector-Specific Trends**: The real estate sector is performing well, driven by urban renewal expectations, while the banking sector has shown volatility [1][19][21]. 3. **Funding and Leverage Trends**: There has been a significant outflow from broad-based ETFs, but leverage financing has rebounded, indicating a mixed funding environment [1][22]. 4. **Future Market Outlook**: Short-term sentiment remains positive, but potential volatility is expected due to upcoming events, with a more optimistic view for Q4 performance [1][24]. 5. **Key Themes to Watch**: The themes of anti-involution and urban renewal are highlighted as significant areas of focus, with potential benefits for related sectors [1][25].

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant increase in earnings for the first half of 2025, with net profit expected to rise by 81%-124% to 840-1040 million yuan, and non-recurring net profit projected to increase by 186%-254% to 670-830 million yuan, driven by price increases and improved sales in the wind power sector [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a profit midpoint of 580 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a non-recurring net profit midpoint of 500 million yuan, showing a notable improvement quarter-on-quarter [1] - The earnings slightly exceeded expectations due to price increases in certain fiberglass products in Q1 and increased wind power shipments in Q2, which diluted expense ratios and improved profit margins [1] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - Traditional fiberglass and blade profitability are expected to marginally improve, contributing to earnings elasticity, with price increases of at least 10% for wind power yarn and thermoplastic products in Q1 2025 [2] - The company is positioned as a comprehensive supplier of specialty fiberglass cloth, catering to the demand for low dielectric products used in high-speed switches and AI servers, which reduces electromagnetic interference and energy loss [2] - A planned investment of 1.4 billion yuan for a new production line capable of producing high-value-added specialty fiberglass cloth is expected to enhance the company's product offerings [2] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company holds a 51% stake in a lithium membrane subsidiary, with a strategic focus on increasing shipment volumes despite pricing pressures in the industry [3] - Cost reduction strategies and government subsidies are anticipated to alleviate profitability pressures in the lithium membrane segment [3] Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - The company has raised its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 19% and 20% to 1.14 and 1.38 yuan, respectively, with current stock prices reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21x for 2025 and 17x for 2026 [4] - The target price has been increased by 55% to 27.4 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 15%, supported by expected profitability growth in specialty fiberglass cloth and the company's comprehensive supply capabilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Dongfang City from a historical county to a modern coastal city, emphasizing its development in the context of Hainan's Free Trade Port initiative and the integration of port, industry, and urban development [1][3]. Group A: Business Environment and Reforms - Dongfang City has implemented a "Five Certificates Linked + Commitment to Start Construction" approval model, reducing project approval times to 3 working days, showcasing a commitment to improving the business environment [5][6]. - The city has developed the first "Enterprise Policy Calculator" in the province, which aggregates 213 policy documents from 12 departments, allowing businesses to easily access relevant policies and potentially save over 8 million yuan in taxes [6][7]. - In 2024, Dongfang resolved 437 urgent issues for enterprises and citizens, achieving a satisfaction rate of 99.8% in government services [7]. Group B: Port and Industrial Development - The construction of the first phase of the high-capacity port at Baosuo Port, with a total investment of 6.227 billion yuan, aims to enhance the port's throughput capacity to 18.2 million tons annually, marking a significant step in establishing an energy and chemical hub [9][11]. - The Xiang-Qiong Advanced Manufacturing Industrial Park is expected to meet an additional cargo demand of 6.7 million tons annually, enhancing the synergy between inland manufacturing and coastal openness [9]. - The Dongfang Coastal Industrial Park has established a complete industrial chain, attracting leading companies and focusing on low-carbon transformation, with the goal of creating a "hundred billion-level industrial cluster" [12]. Group C: Social and Community Development - Dongfang City has initiated the renovation of 23 old residential communities, improving living conditions for 2,174 households, and is expanding green spaces with new parks and community facilities [13][16]. - The city has seen significant growth in collective village economies, with total income reaching 75 million yuan in 2024, benefiting local communities and enhancing overall quality of life [13][16]. - The development of tourism and local attractions has increased visitor numbers, contributing to the local economy and community engagement [15][16].

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic wind power market is expected to deliver approximately 120 GW in 2025, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and policy impacts from Document 136 [1][4] - The global competitiveness of Chinese wind turbines is increasing, particularly in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and India, with expected overseas orders reaching 25 GW or more by 2025 [1][4] - Wind turbine prices have increased by 5% to 10% in 2025, with further increases anticipated in 2026 due to rising reliability demands and changes in bidding processes [1][10] Investment Returns - Wind farm investment returns remain high, with southern regions achieving over 8% and northern large-scale projects reaching over 15% [1][8][9] - Despite new policies potentially affecting some projects, overall profitability remains strong, particularly in regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [9][10] Component Costs and Supply Chain - The costs of key wind turbine components, such as blades, castings, and bearings, have generally risen, with blade prices increasing by 8% to 10%, impacting approximately one-third of the total turbine cost [1][14][19] - Supply chain strategies are crucial as component shortages lead to price increases, with average increases of 6% to 8% for bearings and 10% for bolts [14][15] Domestic and International Market Dynamics - The domestic market saw a bidding volume of nearly 200 GW in 2024, with expectations of 170 to 180 GW in 2025 due to a surge in installations [4][6] - Internationally, Chinese manufacturers like Goldwind and Envision are gaining market share, with orders increasing from under 10 GW in 2023 to 20 GW in 2024, and projected to reach 25 GW in 2025 [6][39] Future Trends - The deep-sea floating wind power technology is expected to grow significantly, with about 30% of new installations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period adopting this technology [2][28] - The wind power industry is anticipated to experience rational development, with a consensus on minimum pricing to stabilize the market [16] Challenges and Opportunities - Domestic wind turbine manufacturers face challenges such as declining profit margins and increased competition, but they are focusing on international markets for growth [6][33] - The European market presents opportunities for Chinese companies, with higher profit margins compared to domestic markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe [39][40] Key Players and Competitive Landscape - Major domestic players include Goldwind, Envision, and Tianhe, which have strong market positions due to quality management and government support [33] - Companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Tianhe are expanding their presence in overseas markets, leveraging their competitive advantages [31][34] Conclusion - The wind power industry is poised for growth, driven by technological advancements, increasing global demand, and strategic international expansion by Chinese manufacturers. The focus on high-quality products and competitive pricing will be essential for sustaining profitability in the evolving market landscape [1][16][39]

Core Viewpoint - China National Building Material (CNBM) is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 191.22 billion, 199.33 billion, and 207.00 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of +5.5%, +4.2%, and +3.8% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.12 billion, 4.89 billion, and 5.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +72.4%, +18.7%, and +12.1% respectively, leading to corresponding PE ratios of 6.7, 5.7, and 5.1. The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - CNBM is a state-owned enterprise under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and it is the largest non-metallic materials platform in China, with a strategic shift towards new materials and related capital investments [2]. - In 2024, CNBM reported revenues of 181.3 billion yuan (down 13.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.39 billion yuan (down 38.2% year-on-year) [2]. Group 2: New Materials Segment - The new materials segment generated 48.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 (up 1.9% year-on-year) and contributed significantly to the company's profit, with a net profit of 2.61 billion yuan (down 23.8% year-on-year) [3]. - The segment is structured into three tiers: 1) Mature industries contributing over 85% of revenue, including gypsum board and fiberglass, with gypsum board holding a market share of over 60% [3]. 2) Emerging industries like lithium battery separators and carbon fiber, which are rapidly growing despite recent revenue declines [3][4]. 3) Cutting-edge technologies such as silicon nitride ceramic balls, which enhance product performance in high-tech applications [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategy - The basic building materials segment, while under pressure from low demand and overcapacity, is expected to recover, with revenues of 91.1 billion yuan in 2024 (down 23% year-on-year) and a net loss of 0.825 billion yuan [6]. - The company is implementing cost reduction strategies and expanding internationally, with overseas cement sales increasing by 15% year-on-year in 2024 [6]. Group 4: Engineering Services - The engineering services segment achieved revenues of 45.5 billion yuan in 2024 (up 0.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.407 billion yuan (down 3.1% year-on-year), maintaining a strong market position [7]. - The company secured new orders worth 63.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant portion coming from international markets, which helps mitigate domestic demand pressures [7]. Group 5: Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - CNBM's capital expenditure decreased to 23.5 billion yuan in 2024 (down 23.1% year-on-year), with a focus on new materials and international expansion [8]. - The company maintains a high dividend policy, with a cash dividend rate of over 50% in 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.81% [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [12]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a core asset of AECC and has established a comprehensive industrial chain covering various aviation component categories, demonstrating strong competitive advantages in both domestic and international markets [4][10]. - The company has a significant growth potential in the domestic market driven by military aircraft upgrades and maintenance demands, with a projected market space of approximately 792 billion yuan for aviation engine components over the next five years [8][51]. - The company has maintained strong customer loyalty through over 20 years of collaboration with leading international aerospace firms, positioning itself for stable growth in its foreign trade business [8][62]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the domestic production of commercial aircraft engines, particularly in the reverse thrust nacelle systems, which are critical components of the propulsion system [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a key player in the aviation engine and gas turbine component manufacturing sector, with a history dating back to the "First Five-Year Plan" in China [22]. - It has multiple subsidiaries that cover nearly the entire industrial chain, enhancing its ability to supply a full range of aviation components [4][7]. Domestic Market Potential - The domestic military aircraft market is expected to provide long-term growth opportunities due to ongoing upgrades and new deployments [8][49]. - The aviation engine is classified as a high-value consumable, creating a sustained demand for replacement and maintenance services [49]. International Market Dynamics - The company has established high barriers to entry in the international market, with a lengthy qualification process for international commercial aviation engine customers [56][59]. - The foreign trade business has shown robust growth, with revenues increasing from 0.63 billion yuan to 15.19 billion yuan over 17 years, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [62]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.92 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 2.29 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.0%, 59.8%, and 55.3% [10]. Key Competitive Advantages - The company possesses advanced manufacturing capabilities and technologies, including high-efficiency adaptive processing and fatigue resistance techniques, which are essential for producing high-performance aviation components [28][31]. - The subsidiary, AECC Harbin Bearing, is the only aviation bearing product platform under AECC, highlighting its unique asset value in the market [62].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a core asset of China Aviation Engine Corporation (AECC) and has established a comprehensive industrial chain covering various aviation component categories. It has a strong competitive edge in the manufacturing of aviation engine parts, particularly in domestic and international markets [2][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic market's shift towards self-sufficiency in aviation engines, particularly in the context of large aircraft development, which presents significant market opportunities for domestic replacements [8][9]. - The company has a robust long-term growth outlook, driven by both domestic demand for military aircraft upgrades and international trade relationships that have been cultivated over two decades [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a key player in the aviation engine parts sector, with multiple subsidiaries that cover nearly the entire industrial chain. It specializes in components such as blades, casings, and sheet metal parts, and has a unique position as the only aviation bearing platform under AECC [2][6][19]. Domestic Market Potential - The domestic military aircraft market is expected to drive long-term growth for the company, with an estimated market space of approximately 792 billion yuan for aviation engine components over the next five years. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing upgrades and maintenance needs of existing aircraft [7][52]. International Market Dynamics - The company has established strong customer loyalty through over 20 years of collaboration with leading international aviation firms, which is expected to support stable growth in its international business. The barriers to entry in this market are high, ensuring a competitive advantage [7][9][60]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve significant profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 0.92 billion yuan in 2025, 1.47 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.29 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34.0%, 59.8%, and 55.3% respectively [9].