风电出海和风机&光伏历史相对底部的组件会有什么叙事？ 20251006 摘要 欧洲海风市场需求旺盛，塔筒和海缆订单预计在下半年陆续出现，为 2027 年业绩增长提供支撑。金风科技受益于国内订单价格回暖和海外 出海逻辑，值得重点关注。 光伏组件板块目前处于股价底部，性价比较高。硅料价格上涨空间有限， 组件环节的反内卷成为关注重点。底部光伏中的组件是四季度重点关注 方向。 风电行业受多重因素催化，包括山东风电电价高于光伏、欧洲招标超预 期、国内海风开工加速及深远海政策支持。看好风机和两海（特别是出 海）两条主线。 国内风机招标量虽同比下降，但仍处于高位。国际招标量大幅增长，表 明出口景气度高。陆风价格持续回暖，且幅度超预期，运营商更注重风 场全生命周期成本。 金风科技毛利率连续两个季度超预期，净利润环比提升。预计今年收入 约 550 亿元，明年达 670 亿元，净利润今年 6.5 亿元，明年 63 亿元， 是重点推荐标的。 Q&A 风电板块的主要投资方向是什么？ 风电板块的投资方向主要集中在两个方面：海风出海和风机板块。首先，国内 市场在 9 月份迎来了招标高峰期，每周有三四个吉瓦的量分布在不同环节，预 计国内三 ...

2025年上半年中国普通地级市GDP十强榜单近日出炉，苏州以13002.35亿元稳居榜首，但真正的戏剧性变化发生在中段位次：南通以6581.2亿元反超佛山 （6366.87亿元），泉州首次突破6400亿大关，温州更以12.42%的增速成为最大黑马。这场洗牌背后，是沿海城市产业升级与内陆地区政策红利的双重博 弈，折射出中国区域经济正在从"规模竞争"迈向"质量竞速"的新阶段。 | | 上季度 | | 2025年上半年 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 2025 | 2024 | 增量 | 名义 | | | | 上六十 | 上未年 | | 增长率 | | 1 | 方州市 | 13002.35 | 12059.4 | 942.95 | 7.82% | | 2 | 无锡市 | 7735.15 | 7437.39 | 297.76 | 4% | | 3 | 南通市 | 6581.2 | 6286.9 | 294.3 | 4.68% | | 4 | 佛山市 | 6366.87 | 6122.89 | 243.98 | 3.98% | | 5 | 泉州市 ...

Group 1: Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry is entering a performance realization period, with expectations for comprehensive performance release in the second half of the year [1] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, driven by offshore wind power, export markets, and onshore wind power [1] - By 2025, three major catalysts are expected: the initiation of deep-sea offshore wind power, accelerated exports, and recovery in wind turbine profitability [1] Group 2: Energy Storage and Hydrogen Industry - Independent energy storage market growth is supported by domestic policies, with strong demand for large-scale storage in Europe and emerging markets [2] - The hydrogen industry is accelerating across the entire value chain, with reduced financing difficulties and ongoing support for new technology development [2] - Key focus areas include hydrogen production, storage and transportation, and hydrogen applications [2] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a surge in orders due to strong demand from both the energy storage sector and the booming electric vehicle market [3] - The market is witnessing a significant increase in procurement willingness and order volume from terminal enterprises, driven by the peak consumption season for new energy vehicles [3] - There is a strong sentiment among related companies to raise prices, with actual transaction prices gradually increasing [3] Group 4: Large-Scale Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage demand is expected to exceed expectations, with projected growth of around 30% over the next two years [4] - The overseas market, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, is experiencing a strong surge in demand for large-scale energy storage [4] - The global installed capacity of energy storage is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30% to 50% from 2025 to 2028 [4] Group 5: Solid-State Battery Industry - The industrialization process of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with several automakers planning to adopt full solid-state batteries around 2027 [5] - The establishment of pilot production lines and the restart of lithium battery expansion cycles are expected to improve the fundamentals of equipment companies [5] - There are opportunities for resonance between industry cycles and technological advancements, with a focus on upstream equipment companies and leading lithium battery equipment firms [5] Group 6: Renewable Energy Development - The renewable energy sector, primarily wind and solar power, is projected to have nearly 2 billion kilowatts of new capacity from 2025 to 2035 [6] - The construction of large wind and solar bases is accelerating, with steady progress in deep-sea wind power and distributed wind power [6] - The industry is expected to achieve long-term growth driven by "dual carbon" goals, with continued optimism for opportunities in the renewable energy sector [6]

各位上午好今天是9月24号欢迎来到摩根史丹利每周三的周期论剑的在线直播我是张蕾Rachel基础材料行业的分析师今天讨论几个主题一个呢是我们那个公用事业和新能源首席侯进他会聊一下他今天刚出的一个风电行业的一个大报告然后我们汽车行业的分析师王冰宇会聊一下这个汽车经销商的这个拐点是不是已经到了 接着我们交易行业的分析师宋天一会聊一下他们最近也是今天刚出了一个交易行业的报告然后最后的话我们金融行业的首席徐然会聊一下他最近带着邮储银行的MDR以及他们在欧洲路演的一些反馈开始之前我例行需要读一个disclaimer请注意本次会议紧面向摩根士丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体的话请请退出会议 另外呢提示一下大家在整个会议的过程中呢您可以随时在屏幕上发送您的问题不需要等到最后这样的话呢我们可以节约一些这个Q&A的等待时间好的那我也不多说了我先把时间交给Iva 好的 谢谢Rachel我是Eva Ho是公众事业和新能源行业的分析师我们今天发了一个风电行业的报告这个报告的话其实我们也是想主要讲一下我们对于风电行业一个持续的乐观的观点风电行业其实在经过了从2022年23年到2024年这三年的一个行业的下行的周 ...

Core Insights - Hainan is experiencing explosive growth in its offshore wind power industry, driven by rich marine wind energy resources and significant investments planned for the future [1][2] Group 1: Industry Growth and Investment - Hainan's total installed offshore wind power capacity has reached 2.17 million kilowatts, with a planned investment exceeding 79.5 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - Major projects like the Huaneng Lingao CZ1 offshore wind power project are already operational, providing approximately 1.85 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity annually [1] - The Datan Hainan and Sheneng offshore wind power projects are expected to generate around 7.4 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy per year once fully operational [1] Group 2: Industry Chain Development - The offshore wind power construction in Hainan is leading to the gradual formation and improvement of the wind power industry chain, with local production of key components like blades and towers [2] - The "Wind Power +" model is being adopted to create a multi-energy complementary system, enhancing the value of green energy and supporting the upgrade of Hainan's green energy industry [2] Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite strong growth, the offshore wind power industry in Hainan faces challenges such as ecological protection pressures and the high costs of offshore wind power investments [2] - To achieve sustainable development, there is a need for resource planning, technology innovation, and optimization of power grid operations to enhance electricity consumption capacity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates a significant divergence in the performance of the renewable energy sector, with wind power showing strong results while solar power faces challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the renewable energy sector achieved revenues of 729.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11 billion yuan, down 46% [1] - The wind power segment generated revenues of 155.8 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 32%, but net profit increased by 20% to 9.1 billion yuan [1] - In Q2 2025, the renewable energy sector's revenue was 411.5 billion yuan, flat year-on-year but up 29% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 6 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year but up 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Segment Analysis - The inverter segment showed positive growth with a year-on-year revenue increase of 30%, while the solar main and auxiliary chains continued to face pressure [2] - The battery segment's revenue increased by 8%, while other materials like silver paste and glass saw declines of 2% and 28%, respectively [2] - The profitability of auxiliary materials is under short-term pressure, but price increases in Q3 are expected to improve margins [4] Group 3: Supply Side Dynamics - The price of silicon materials hit a bottom in Q2 2025, with expectations for profitability to turn positive in H2 2025 as industry consolidation progresses [3] - The oversupply of silicon wafers is leading to increased competition, with price recovery anticipated in H2 2025 and 2026 [3] - The overall component prices have entered a bottom range, with potential for gradual recovery driven by demand and pricing adjustments [3] Group 4: Demand Trends - Demand for household storage is gradually recovering, with significant growth in commercial and large-scale storage [4] - The U.S. large-scale storage market is expected to see a surge in 2025, although growth may slow in 2026 [4] - European and Southeast Asian markets are experiencing robust demand, supported by subsidy policies and dynamic pricing models [4] Group 5: Wind Power Insights - Wind power production is experiencing high growth, with significant increases in installation and profitability [5] - The domestic market benefits from improved capacity utilization, leading to a positive shift in profitability for offshore products [5] - The overall wind power segment is in a favorable state, with strong order books and improved margins for leading manufacturers [5]

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wind power industry is projected to see new installed capacity of 120 to 130 GW in 2026, slightly lower than the 125 to 135 GW forecast for 2025, primarily due to a slight decline in onshore wind power, while offshore wind power is expected to grow significantly from 7-8 GW in 2025 to 13-17 GW in 2026 [1][2][3] Key Insights and Arguments - The increase in wind turbine prices has significantly impacted the industry, with an estimated 19,000 new installations in 2025, leading to a total output value close to 200 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%-40% [1][4] - The offshore wind power sector is anticipated to have substantial growth potential in the coming years, with expectations of reaching 15 to 18 GW by 2030, contingent on the number of projects under construction increasing to over 15 [1][7] - The industry has largely resolved past issues, with current focus on the rise in wind turbine prices, which have increased by approximately 5%, positively affecting industry profits [1][8] Financial Performance - The mid-year report for 2025 indicates a comprehensive recovery in profitability, with industry revenue growing by 40% and profits increasing by 26%. The second quarter alone saw a year-on-year profit growth of 33% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 73% [2][10] - The wind turbine component sector has shown significant performance, with a notable decrease in expense ratios expected to continue into the second half of the year [2][10] Market Dynamics - Offshore wind power and exports are identified as the main growth drivers, with competition intensity lower than that of domestic onshore wind power. Chinese companies are expected to enhance their market share through globalization [2][12] - The cable industry is projected to see a significant performance increase starting from the third quarter of 2025, surpassing historical levels [2][14] Future Outlook - The wind turbine and related components industry is expected to have a very optimistic development outlook, with potential for record-high profitability in 2025-2026, driven by price increases and improved profit expectations [2][16] - The domestic offshore wind market is anticipated to have significant elasticity, with revenue expectations around 10 to 15 GW, and potential for higher actual installation if performance is strong [2][17] Additional Considerations - The stability of component and raw material prices is noted, with little likelihood of significant rebounds, which is crucial for maintaining industry profitability [1][9] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of a full recovery beginning in the third quarter of 2025, driven by domestic offshore projects and export opportunities [2][13]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the investment opportunities in the renewable energy sector, particularly focusing on solar energy, energy storage, and wind power. The "anti-involution" strategy has emerged as a new investment hotspot, with market funds shifting towards low-position, high-probability targets [1][3]. Key Companies and Their Performance 1. **阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply)** - Benefiting from the explosive demand for energy storage both domestically and internationally, with overseas large storage projects showing an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) exceeding 10% [1][5]. - Expected to maintain a 10% growth in shipment volume this year, with a projected output of 160-165 GW in solar and 40-50 GWh in energy storage by 2025 [12][13]. 2. **阿特斯太阳能 (Canadian Solar)** - Achieved a quarterly profit of 749 million yuan in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations, with a gross margin in the component business above 10% [6][7]. - Plans to diversify its production and supply chain to mitigate policy risks, with a target of over 3.5 GW production in the U.S. [6][8]. 3. **海博思创 (Huaibei Energy)** - Expected to ship 8-9 GWh in Q3 2025, with a clear shipment target for the coming years [14]. - Benefits from domestic energy storage policies, with a projected stable cash flow from independent energy storage operations [14]. 4. **德业股份 (Deye Technology)** - Anticipates overall revenue of 14 billion yuan and net profit of approximately 3.9 to 4 billion yuan by 2025, driven by European demand recovery and potential in the Indonesian market [15][16]. 5. **固德威 (GoodWe)** - Expected to see a doubling in market demand in Australia due to new subsidy policies, with projected shipments of 50,000 units in Q3 2025 [17]. - Anticipated annual performance of 250 to 300 million yuan [17]. 6. **运达股份 (Windar Photonics)** - Reported a 2.2 percentage point increase in gross margin in H1 2025, with expectations of profit reaching 650 million yuan or higher for the year [18][19]. 7. **东方电缆 (Oriental Cable)** - Holds a record high order backlog of 18.9 billion yuan, with 11.5 billion yuan in submarine cable orders [20]. - Expected to achieve profits exceeding 1.5 to 1.6 billion yuan for the year, with significant contributions from European market expansions [20]. Investment Logic and Market Trends - The "anti-involution" investment logic focuses on sectors like photovoltaics, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, which have been identified as key areas for growth following a government article on the topic [3]. - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow over 40% this year, with significant increases in China, the U.S., and Europe [5]. Additional Insights - The independent energy storage sector is expected to yield high returns, with IRR generally exceeding 6%, and some regions even surpassing 10% [5]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on diversifying their supply chains and production capabilities to mitigate risks associated with policy changes and market fluctuations [8][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and strategies of major companies in the renewable energy sector, along with the broader market trends and investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The battery sector is witnessing significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, with a penetration rate of 55.3% for new energy vehicles in August [2][10] - The photovoltaic sector is set for high-quality development following new government policies aimed at curbing low-price competition [3][17] - The energy storage sector has reached a record high in bidding scale, with 25.8GW/69.4GWh in August, indicating strong market demand [4][35] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Battery companies are making substantial progress in solid-state battery development, with industry-wide commercialization on the horizon [9] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.3% in August, with expectations for market growth in September due to seasonal demand and subsidy implementation [10][11] Photovoltaic Sector - New government initiatives aim to eliminate low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting high-quality growth [3][17] - The plan includes measures for better industry planning, quality management, and international cooperation [18] Wind Power Sector - The successful delivery of the Fan Stone II project's submarine cable and new orders from Europe highlight ongoing growth in the wind power sector [27][28] - The wind power supply chain is experiencing stable pricing for key materials, with some fluctuations noted [29] Energy Storage Sector - August saw a historic high in energy storage bidding, with a total scale of 25.8GW/69.4GWh, driven by large-scale project completions [35] - The average price for 2-hour energy storage systems has dropped below 0.5 yuan/Wh, indicating a trend towards cost reduction [36][37] Electric Power Equipment Sector - The South Grid's first batch of metering products achieved a total bid of 3.462 billion yuan, with significant contributions from leading companies [49][50] - The Jinshang-Hubei ±800 kV UHVDC project has commenced operation, enhancing power transmission capabilities [51] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The PMI index showed improvement in August, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand, which is expected to boost orders for industrial control components [58] - The establishment of the Wenzhou Artificial Intelligence Bureau aims to promote AI development, with significant contracts awarded in the humanoid robot sector [60] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The Yalong River Basin's hydrogen energy development plan is underway, with significant projects being awarded, indicating growth in the hydrogen sector [66][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [9]. Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in its revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 12.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 210.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of "Electricity + Computing Power + AI," aiming to strengthen its position in the power supply sector while expanding into AI and robotics [3]. - The smart cable network business has seen significant growth, with revenue of 11.49 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and a net profit of 270 million yuan, up 75.8% year-on-year [5]. - The smart battery segment is expected to further reduce losses, with revenue of 690 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%, and a net loss of 190 million yuan, a reduction of 153 million yuan in losses compared to the previous year [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 6.69 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 14.8 billion yuan and a total share capital of 2.219 billion shares [2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.1 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.2%, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, up 112.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 9.4% and 1.1%, respectively, with a decrease in sales expense ratio but a decline in management, financial, and R&D expense ratios [4]. Business Segments - The smart cable network business is expected to enhance profitability with new high-voltage cable projects and significant orders in the nuclear cable sector [5]. - The smart battery business is actively expanding overseas and is expected to benefit from the ongoing reforms in the energy sector [6]. - The smart airport business has also shown substantial growth, with revenue of 750 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 29.74 billion yuan, 33.90 billion yuan, and 38.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 530 million yuan, 830 million yuan, and 1.22 billion yuan [9].