（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 光伏50ETF（159864）跟踪的是光伏产业指数（931151），该指数从市场中选取涉及硅材料、电池片、 组件、逆变器等太阳能光伏发电产业链上下游业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以全面反映中国光伏 行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现和发展趋势。该指数具有显著的成长性和波动性特征。 国信证券指出，电力设备行业受益于全球数据中心建设浪潮，AIDC电力设备需求呈现爆发式增长，变 压器、开关柜等环节龙头企业有望受益。光伏行业在"反内卷"政策推动下，供需格局有望改善，硅料环 节盈利能力或将率先修复；少银化/无银化浆料成为降本突破口，2026年无银化产品或将步入产业化量 产前夕，钙钛矿电池产业化进程持续加速。电网设备方面，2026年国内特高压核准、招标有望加速，智 能电表价格迎来复苏，海外业务保持高增态势。风电行业2026年新增装机有望保持10%-20%增长，海风 装机量有望达10-12GW，海缆和管桩环节企业迎来订单和业绩共振。全球储能需求稳步增长，预计2026 年装机达404GWh，同比增长38%，国内反内卷政策推动行业整合，盈利能力有望见底回升。 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 风电设备 风电 2026 年行业策略：国内需求稳升，出海加速，国内外盈利共振 国内风电需求稳中有升，海风静待规划落地。如何看待中长期风电需求，主要从 短期、中长期两个维度判断。短期，陆上风电/海上风电招标在 2025 年前三季度 分别实现 97/5GW 招标，2025 年 1-11 月分别实现 124/8.6GW 核准，2026-2027 年风电需求有望持续高增。中长期：风电出力曲线与负荷需求匹配度较高、市场化 竞争电价波动性小，"十五五"风电在新能源装机占比有望从 25%提升至 50%， 实现单年装机达 130GW。国务院总理李强作政府工作报告，首次明确提出"发展 海上风电"，我们预计十五五风电增量重点向海发展，海风规划有望加速。 欧洲海风有望持续加速，浮式风电进入 0-1 周期。欧洲政策加大海风扶持力度， 多国家推动海上风电计划总规模近 100GW，大部分拍卖均采用 CfDs 模式，丹麦、 荷兰也有为重启 CfDs。欧盟降息已达 200 基点，利好海风建设。欧洲 2025 年拍 卖量高企有望超 19.5GW，FID 已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global wind power market is expected to see significant growth, with new installations projected to reach 196 GW in 2026, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by domestic and international demand [1][2]. Group 1: Global Wind Power Demand - Global wind power demand is anticipated to maintain a long-term growth trend due to economic drivers and a global electricity shortage exacerbated by increasing AI and electrification rates [2][3]. - For 2025, global new wind power installations are expected to be 167 GW, a 34% increase year-on-year, with domestic installations at 120 GW (+38%) and overseas installations at 47 GW (+24%) [2]. - The domestic wind power market is projected to break the cycle of the "Five-Year Plan" and continue to grow, supported by offshore wind, equipment upgrades, and green electricity connections [1][2]. Group 2: Offshore Wind Power Market - The European offshore wind market is expected to experience the fastest growth among international segments, with a CAGR of 32% from 2025 to 2030, driven by policy adjustments and increased project success rates [3]. - The demand for offshore wind power is projected to remain high, with a CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030, supported by the transition of the domestic supply chain to a full-service model [3]. Group 3: Equipment and Supply Chain Dynamics - The price of onshore wind turbines in China is expected to rise by approximately 11% in 2025, with continued profitability for manufacturers anticipated in 2026-2027 due to high-value orders [4]. - The export of wind turbine equipment is expected to accelerate, with new orders projected to reach 40 GW in 2025, a 43% increase year-on-year, driven by both domestic and international market growth [4]. Group 4: Domestic and International Supply Chain Orders - Supply chain orders for offshore wind projects in Europe are expected to be released 3-4 years before project grid connection, with significant orders for piles and submarine cables anticipated in 2026 and 2027 [5]. - In China, over 15 GW of offshore wind projects are ready to commence, indicating strong domestic demand and profitability potential in the supply chain [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see improved profitability across various segments, with recommendations for companies in the turbine manufacturing sector, offshore cable and foundation segments, and component manufacturers benefiting from domestic and international market dynamics [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the wind power industry, indicating a long-term growth trend driven by economic factors and increasing demand for renewable energy [6]. Core Insights - Global wind power demand is expected to maintain a long-term boom due to economic drivers and the increasing electrification needs, with projected global new installations of 167GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and 196GW in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][13]. - Domestic wind power installations are anticipated to break the five-year planning cycle, with significant contributions from offshore wind, replacement projects, and green electricity connections, leading to continued growth [2][14]. - The overseas wind power market is projected to experience sustained demand growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2025 to 2030, particularly in the European offshore wind sector, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32% [3][50]. Summary by Sections Economic Drivers of Global Wind Power Demand - The report highlights that the global wind power demand is expected to remain robust due to economic factors and the electrification trend, with specific forecasts for new installations in 2025 and 2026 [2][13]. - Domestic demand is supported by market reforms and initiatives such as "old-for-new" replacements and green electricity connections, with expectations of continued growth in installations [14][19]. Profitability and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is set to improve, with a notable increase in the average bidding price for onshore wind turbines in 2025, which is expected to rise by approximately 11% [4][29]. - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: turbine manufacturers, offshore cable and foundation suppliers, and component manufacturers benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [6][51]. Offshore Wind Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the European offshore wind market is poised for significant growth, with a recovery in project bidding expected in 2026 after a period of delays and cancellations [59][67]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments in Europe that are likely to enhance project success rates and support continued demand growth in the offshore wind sector [59][61].

这数据放以前想都不敢想，为啥储能突然这么火？关键是驱动逻辑变了。 以前各地搞储能，多少带点行政命令的意思，比如光伏项目必须配多少储能，不然不让并网。 文|有风 编辑|有风 2026年的中国新能源产业，已经悄悄换了赛道。 以前拼规模、抢装机的日子过去了，现在大家都在琢磨怎么把"高质量"这三个字落到实处。 全球能源转型的大背景下，"双碳"目标和新型电力系统建设就像两只大手，把能源结构往清洁化、低碳 化的方向猛推。 这时候，风电、光伏、储能这老三样，突然有了新故事。 第一个要说的，就得是今年存在感拉满的储能。 前几年提起储能，大家都觉得它是光伏、风电的"小跟班"，主要任务就是帮忙调调峰、填填谷。 但今年不一样了，2026年全球储能新增装机直接干到438GWh，同比增长62%，咱们中国更猛，预计能 到250GWh。 现在不一样，市场自己就催着储能发展。 你想啊，电力现货市场一放开，峰谷价差有时候能差好几倍，储能充谷放峰，中间的利润空间可不小。 再加上辅助服务、容量补偿这些收益渠道，储能已经从"成本项"变成了"收益项"。 光有收益还不够，技术创新才是硬道理。 锂电池今年又进步了，能量密度高了不少，成本反而降了点，这直接 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the wind power sector is expected to break the cyclical pattern and maintain growth in 2026, driven by both onshore and offshore wind energy expansion globally, with a focus on green energy applications [10][12] - The report identifies four main investment themes for 2026: 1) Resonance of policies between China and Europe for offshore wind, 2) Green energy catalyzing non-electric utilization, 3) Profitability elasticity of major manufacturers, and 4) Sustained demand in the components sector [10][16] Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, the wind power sector faced cyclical pressures, but by the third quarter, the relative advantages of wind power became more pronounced due to policy impacts on the electricity market and non-electric utilization, leading to a projected double-digit growth in installed capacity for 2026 [10][20] - The report forecasts that installed capacity for onshore and offshore wind in 2026 will reach approximately 110 GW and 10 GW respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10% and 25% [20][41] Group 2: Key Companies and Profitability Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies with investment ratings, including: - Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ) with a buy rating and projected EPS growth from 0.42 in 2024 to 1.16 in 2026 [7] - Dongfang Cable (603606.SH) also rated as buy, with EPS expected to rise from 1.47 in 2024 to 3.03 in 2026 [7] - New Strong Link (300850.SZ) rated as buy, with EPS projected to increase from 0.18 in 2024 to 2.92 in 2026 [7] - The profitability of major manufacturers is expected to improve significantly, with the average bidding price for main units increasing by 7.4% in 2025, and a high proportion of high-price orders expected to continue into 2026 [10][13] Group 3: Offshore Wind Development - The report notes that both Europe and China are emerging from a low point in offshore wind development, with a significant increase in project approvals and construction expected to drive growth in 2026 [10][56] - The offshore wind policy in China is evolving, with a focus on deep-sea technology and a significant number of projects expected to be initiated, which will enhance demand for high-voltage cables and other components [10][56] Group 4: Component Sector Dynamics - The demand for wind turbine components is projected to remain strong, with expectations of over 20,000 turbines needed annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating a recovery from previous supply chain constraints [10][44] - The report suggests that component manufacturers will benefit from increased capacity utilization and the introduction of new technologies, with specific companies recommended for investment, including New Strong Link and Delijia [10][13]

[Table_Page] 投资策略报告|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 风电行业 2026 年投资策略 高景气+结构通胀共振，两海驱动盈利反转 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-31 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% 0% 13% 27% 40% 54% 12/24 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 电力设备 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]陈昕 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 | | | SFC CE No. BWV823 | | | 010-59136699 | | | gfchenxin@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈子坤 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 | | | 010-59136690 | | | chenzikun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 曹瑞元 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260521090 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for wind power demand in both domestic and overseas markets is optimistic for 2026, driven by rising prices for onshore wind turbines, accelerated industry exports, and the potential flexibility of offshore wind resources in China, which is expected to lead to a comprehensive improvement in industry chain profitability [4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Wind Power Demand - Domestic wind power installations are expected to reach 130-140 GW in 2026, continuing growth from a high base of 120-130 GW in 2025, primarily driven by onshore wind power [4][8]. - Offshore wind power is projected to add 10-12 GW in 2026, a significant increase from 7-9 GW in 2025, although the industry still needs to enhance its overall market conditions [4][10]. - The domestic wind power bidding volume for 2025 is expected to exceed 130-140 GW, indicating strong resilience despite a high base from the previous year [5][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Profitability - Three major trends are anticipated to drive a comprehensive improvement in profitability across the Chinese wind power industry in 2026: 1. Onshore wind turbine gross margins are expected to increase by 2-3 percentage points in 2026 compared to 2025, with further improvements anticipated in 2027 [4][19]. 2. Accelerated overseas exports of Chinese wind turbines, with significant growth in the European offshore wind market [4][22]. 3. The domestic offshore wind sector is poised for rapid growth, with the potential to achieve annual new installations of over 15 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][34]. Group 3: Export Growth and Market Expansion - Chinese wind turbine exports are accelerating, with new orders expected to exceed 20 GW in 2024, significantly higher than historical levels [4][22]. - The European market is identified as a key area for growth, with Chinese companies likely to achieve substantial breakthroughs in the coming years [4][26]. - The offshore wind sector in Europe is currently experiencing high construction activity, although challenges such as project delays and financing issues need to be addressed [4][27]. Group 4: Offshore Wind Potential - The domestic offshore wind sector has substantial resource reserves and is supported by favorable policies, indicating potential for rapid growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][36]. - By the end of 2025, approximately 60 GW of unbuilt offshore wind projects have been allocated to owners, providing a solid foundation for future development [4][36]. - The construction intensity of offshore wind projects is expected to gradually increase, with a significant number of projects in the pipeline [4][38].

Group 1 - The Zhejiang Provincial People's Congress has passed the "Regulations on Promoting High-Quality Development of Marine Economy," which emphasizes the expansion of offshore wind power into deep waters and the support for clean energy sources such as nuclear, tidal, wave, and tidal energy [1] - Guosen Securities forecasts that the domestic offshore wind power market will see new installations increase to a range of 11-15 GW by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1] - The total new offshore wind installations in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are expected to reach 70-100 GW, with national offshore wind turbine tenders projected to hit a historical high of 15-20 GW in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities highlights the global offshore wind power demand and suggests focusing on three investment themes: the favorable competitive landscape in the submarine cable segment, the recovery of profitability in the turbine segment, and the advancements in floating wind turbine technology [2] - The submarine cable segment is expected to benefit significantly from the rising demand in offshore wind power due to its favorable competition and performance elasticity [2] - The domestic offshore wind turbine manufacturers are anticipated to have advantages in large-scale production, cost, and delivery capabilities, which may lead to opportunities for overseas expansion as demand increases [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the power equipment sector, particularly in renewable energy, including solar, wind, hydrogen, and energy storage technologies. It emphasizes the importance of price stability and supply chain dynamics in the solar industry, as well as the growth potential in offshore wind and hydrogen projects. The report also discusses the strategic initiatives of companies like Ningde Times in the electric vehicle sector, showcasing their innovative solutions for electric shipping [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation - **Solar Energy**: The price of polysilicon has been adjusted upwards, with the average transaction price for n-type polysilicon at 53,200 RMB per ton, remaining stable week-on-week. Most polysilicon companies have raised new order prices to above 65,000 RMB per ton, driven by expectations of improved demand by Q1 2026 [15][16]. - **Wind Power & Grid**: Oriental Cable has secured a 1.9 billion RMB order for underwater cables, enhancing its overseas market presence. The company’s total orders now exceed 20 billion RMB, with a significant portion attributed to underwater cables and high-voltage cables [2][17][20]. 2. Hydrogen & Energy Storage - **Hydrogen**: The world's largest green hydrogen and ammonia project has commenced operations, setting multiple records in hydrogen production capacity and technology. This project is expected to drive the commercialization of hydrogen energy in China [3][21]. - **Energy Storage**: The report notes a range of bidding prices for energy storage systems, with the average bid for W2 storage systems ranging from 0.4363 to 0.5331 RMB per Wh. The report suggests focusing on companies with high growth certainty in the large-scale storage sector [22][27][30]. 3. New Energy Vehicles - **Ningde Times**: The company has launched an integrated solution for electric shipping, addressing challenges such as high initial costs and complex operations. This includes partnerships with various companies to enhance the electric shipping ecosystem [4][31][32]. The cumulative delivery of electric ships by Ningde Times has reached nearly 900 units, covering various transport scenarios [32][33].