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股指期货周报:震荡上行中有望挑战前高-20251109
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 14:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market remained in high - level oscillation this week, with price - rising factors and future expectations dominating market hotspots. The index followed technical indicators and rebounded after filling two upward gaps in the Shanghai Composite Index in late October. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating [4]. - The "V - shaped reversal" of the U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits [4]. - In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline, the discount reached the weekly maximum on Wednesday when the market rebounded, and then began to converge on Thursday with a significant decline in positions, indicating signs of short - position reduction [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Weekly Key News - On October 31, Chairman Wu Qing proposed to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [3]. - Affected by the AI bubble, concerns about the U.S. government shutdown, and the liquidity crisis, U.S. stocks fell across the board this week, with the Nasdaq posting its largest single - week decline since early April [3]. - In October 2025, China's CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, PPI fell 2.1% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [3]. - In October, China's export growth in U.S. dollar terms was - 1.1% (previous value 8.3%), and import growth was 1.0% (previous value 7.4%) [3]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - In the third quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus was 1.3948 trillion yuan, and the capital and financial account (including the net error and omission in the current quarter) had a deficit of 1.3948 trillion yuan, with inbound direct investment remaining in net inflow [3]. - On November 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Measures for the Administration of the Securities Settlement Risk Fund", which will come into effect on December 8, 2025, with differential adjustments to the payment ratio of the risk fund [3]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Analysis - Logic: The market was in high - level oscillation this week. Rising prices of commodities such as phosphate fertilizer and lithium hexafluorophosphate boosted related sectors. Investment expectations in AI, Hainan Free Trade, and Haixi Construction became market hotspots, and bank stocks rose against the trend during market adjustments [4]. - Outlook: The "V - shaped reversal" of U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating. In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline and then converged with a decline in positions, indicating short - position reduction [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The market is expected to rise while oscillating. Buy on dips around the Shanghai Composite Index of 3980 points and avoid chasing high prices [5]. - Arbitrage: Conduct spot - futures arbitrage by going long on IM/IC 2512 and short on ETFs [5]. - Options: Buy bull spreads on dips [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 A - share Index Performance - The performance data of A - share indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 from November 3 to November 7, 2025 are presented [9]. 3.2.2 A - share Trading Volume - The trading volume data of the A - share market and the trading volume proportion of major indices from May 6, 2025, to October 30, 2025, are shown [12][13]. 3.2.3 A - share Rise and Fall - The rise - fall situation and the proportion of stocks hitting the daily limit or daily low limit of the A - share market from August 1, 2025, to November 7, 2025, are presented [15]. 3.2.4 A - share Margin Trading - The margin balance, the ratio of margin balance to A - share floating market value, margin net buying, and the ratio of margin buying to A - share trading volume are presented [19][20]. 3.2.5 A - share Industry Performance - The weekly rise - fall rates and industry popularity of A - share industries are shown [23]. 3.2.6 A - share Industry Fund Flow - The weekly net inflow of funds and margin net buying in A - share industries are presented [26]. 3.2.7 A - share Market Financing - The IPO financing and private placement financing data of the A - share market are presented [28][29]. 3.2.8 A - share Index Valuation - The PE - TTM, PB - MRQ, and their quantiles, medians, danger values, and opportunity values of various A - share indices are presented [31]. 3.2.9 Stock Index Futures Basis Change - The basis change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 7, 2025, are presented [33]. 3.2.10 Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Change - The trading volume and open interest change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 6, 2025, are presented [36]. 3.2.11 Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The trading volume comparison data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures and their corresponding spot indices are presented [38]. 3.2.12 Stock Index Futures Main Open Interest - The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of IF, IC, IM, and IH stock index futures are presented [41].