（原标题：欧盟碳边境调节机制为摩洛哥带来发展机遇） 据摩洛哥《360报》9月9日报道，距离欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）生 效仅剩不到一年，摩洛哥面临着一个关键的抉择：是接受这项新的贸易限制， 还是将这一期限转化为迈向绿色经济的跳板。尽管某些行业面临直接影响的风 险，但摩洛哥已具备将其转化为竞争力杠杆、巩固自身作为区域脱碳先锋地位 的条件。 报道认为，得益于摩洛哥对可再生能源的大规模投资以及初步绿色税基的 建立，CBAM不仅代表税收，也是一次可以帮助摩洛哥转变生产方式、加速能 源转型的机会。此外，基于现有的欧盟-摩洛哥绿色伙伴关系，双方将支持摩 绿色项目，并促进可再生能源证书的国际认可；通过采用清晰的碳报告标准， 摩洛哥不仅能巩固其在欧洲的市场份额，未来还能成为可靠的区域低碳产品供 应商。 自2026年1月起，欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）正式生效，将对六大类 进口产品（水泥、钢铁、铝、化肥、电力、氢能）中所含的碳进行定价，以抑 制污染行业并保护环境。对于欧洲主要贸易伙伴摩洛哥来说，受影响最大的行 业是磷肥、钢铁、水泥和铝。农业和农食品行业将受到间接影响，因为它们必 须逐步满足欧洲关于可追溯性和碳足迹的新要求 ...

8 月农化行业月度观察：国际钾肥价格上行，磷肥出口量价 齐升，草甘膦持续涨价 20250910 摘要 全球钾肥供给下降，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯产量减少，加拿大 Nutrien 上半 年产量同比降低。中国 1-8 月钾肥产量同比减少 20%，预计全年减少 100 万吨，主因环保压力和资源禀赋。 钾肥需求超预期增长，性价比高于磷肥，库存低位。中国大合同 CFR 价 为 346 美元，低于东南亚和巴西，短期补库存难度大。预计四季度至明 年一季度国内钾肥价格维持高位，景气度至少持续到 2027 年上半年。 磷矿石长期价格中枢维持高位，有供给刚性支撑。8 月底湖北 30%品位 船板价 1,040 元，云南货场价 970 元，与上月底持平。7 月磷矿石产量 同比增 10%，环比降 9.5%，进口同比增 20%，环比降 33%。 新能源需求占比提升，8 月磷酸铁锂同比增产但环比略降；行业总体亏 损但部分支撑上游需求。在当前降息预期下，看好资源品收益以及低估 值、高股息投资逻辑。 新矿产资源法促进矿产资源合理开发利用，推动矿业高质量发展。磷矿 石长期价格中枢预计维持较高水平，重点推荐磷矿储量丰富的企业，如 云天化、兴发集团。 Q& ...

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Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The demand peak season is approaching, and the outlook for viscose staple fiber is expected to improve. The viscose staple fiber sector is subject to policy restrictions on new product construction. Recently, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has been at a high level, with rapid inventory decline and improved profit margins. The traditional demand peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to boost demand for viscose staple fiber [6][12]. Industry Overview - From September 1 to September 5, 2025, the basic chemical industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.36%, ranking 20th among all Shenwan first-level industries in terms of weekly performance. The top five stocks in terms of weekly gains in the basic chemical industry were: Dazhongnan, Lushan New Materials, Taihe Technology, Lingpai Technology, and Jianbang Co., Ltd. The top five stocks in terms of weekly losses were: Tongyi Zhong, Meilian New Materials, Jianye Co., Ltd., *ST Yatai, and Akoli [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - With the traditional demand peak season approaching, the outlook for viscose staple fiber is expected to improve. Mid-term investment focus in the basic chemical industry includes: 1. Refrigerant industry constrained by quotas (Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Yonghe Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group); 2. Industries benefiting from "anti-involution," such as titanium dioxide (Longbai Group); 3. Industries driven by domestic demand to hedge against tariff impacts, such as phosphate fertilizer (Yuntianhua) and civil explosives (Guangdong Hongda) [8][25].

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - Copper prices have rebounded, surpassing $9,000 due to rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, which could trigger a second price increase wave for CCL manufacturers as copper accounts for over 30% of their costs [1] - A $100 increase in copper prices could compress CCL gross margins by approximately 1.5-2 percentage points, incentivizing major manufacturers to issue price increase notices [1] - Tin production has been halted due to an accident at Hunan Xinlong Mining, which accounts for 10% of China's and 6% of global capacity; if the shutdown lasts over a month, it will exacerbate the global supply gap [1] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence - The release of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan aims for over 70% penetration of smart terminals/agents by 2027, exceeding 90% by 2030, and achieving a fully intelligent society by 2035 [2] - The key highlight of this policy compared to the 2015 "Internet+" initiative is the inclusion of penetration rates as quantifiable KPIs, indicating that fiscal policies, state-owned enterprise procurement, subsidies, and demonstration projects will focus on achieving these targets [2] Group 3: Livestock Industry - Since May, the policy focus has shifted from "stabilizing production and supply" to "reducing excess" in the pig industry, with a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory ending an 18-month growth streak [3] - A 1% decrease in breeding sows could lead to a 5% long-term increase in pig prices, with projections suggesting that the price center could rise to 16-17 yuan/kg by 2026 [3] - Several insurance funds and FOFs have shifted their investments in the breeding sector from cyclical plays to high-dividend combinations, anticipating an increase in dividend rates from 40% to 60-70% under supportive policies and improved cash flow [3] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The phosphate fertilizer export policy has transitioned to a "dual-track system," effective from 2025, regulating exports through a combination of supply assurance and quota-based exports [4] - This new pricing mechanism aims to manage domestic price differences and capitalize on high overseas prices, with current FOB prices for diammonium phosphate at $803/ton and domestic ex-factory prices at 4,000 yuan/ton, yielding over 2,000 yuan profit per ton exported [4] Group 5: Financial Sector - China Ping An reported a 39.8% year-on-year increase in NBV, with the bancassurance channel growing by 16%, and CCL high-dividend stocks generating an additional 16.1 billion yuan [5] - The financial policy environment is stabilizing, with interest margins at a low point and non-performing loan ratios declining, suggesting that banks like Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Qingdao Bank may see relative returns in Q3 due to their valuation bottoms and high dividends [5]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a widespread dilemma of increasing production without increasing profits, with the industry's operating revenue profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, and remaining low in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The low-quality and homogeneous competition is primarily due to excessive investment and repeated construction, resulting in product homogenization, along with local governments' blind investment promotion exacerbating overcapacity [1] - The central government has proposed comprehensive rectification requirements to address these issues, including strengthening self-discipline, promoting innovation, and eliminating non-compliant capacity based on energy efficiency and environmental standards [2] Group 2: Policy Developments - The chemical industry has seen a gradual deepening of anti-involution policies this year, with significant measures introduced such as the "National Unified Market Construction Guidelines" aimed at curbing repeated construction and market segmentation [2] - In June, a joint notice was issued by five ministries to assess old facilities in the refining and fertilizer sectors, focusing on safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency to promote the exit of inefficient capacity [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to see opportunities for supply-side reforms in areas with significant homogeneous competition, such as refining and certain pesticide varieties, as state-owned enterprises control capacity and new project approvals are restricted [3] - By August 2025, a recovery in overseas demand for certain chemical products and further domestic demand growth is anticipated, with a focus on investment in sectors with improved supply-demand dynamics and scarce resource attributes, particularly electronic resins [4] Group 4: Price Trends - As of July 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decline of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating a slight decrease in the prices of major chemical products [3] - International crude oil prices showed an upward trend in July, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal fuel consumption [4] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The electronic resin sector is poised for growth due to increasing demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The phosphate fertilizer market is experiencing price increases driven by overseas agricultural recovery and supply disruptions, while the pesticide sector is expected to see price recovery due to increased demand and limited supply growth [5][6]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a decline in profit margins from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, with the first half of 2025 still at low levels [1][16][17] - Central authorities have proposed comprehensive rectification measures to combat this issue, focusing on self-discipline, innovation, and the elimination of non-compliant capacity [1][16] - The industry is expected to transition towards high-quality sustainable development through capacity optimization and price ecology restructuring [1][16] Group 2 - The chemical industry's anti-involution policies have deepened from institutional construction to special rectification, with measures introduced to curb redundant construction and market segmentation [2][17] - Key sectors such as refining, olefins, and certain pesticide varieties are anticipated to benefit from supply-side reforms, leading to improved profitability as inefficient capacity is phased out [2][17] - The overall supply-demand structure is expected to gradually optimize, with the potential for profit recovery in the industry [2][17] Group 3 - As of July 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decline of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating a slight decrease in the prices of major chemical products [3][18] - The international crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel in July, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [4][19] - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is set between $65 and $70 per barrel, with WTI prices expected between $60 and $65 per barrel, highlighting the importance of geopolitical dynamics and OPEC+ policies [4][19] Group 4 - The investment portfolio for the month includes companies such as Shengquan Group, Hubei Yihua, Satellite Chemical, China Petroleum, Lier Chemical, and Yara International, focusing on sectors with growth potential [9][22] - Shengquan Group is highlighted as a leader in synthetic resins, particularly in the rapidly growing electronic specialty resin market [9][22] - Hubei Yihua is positioned to benefit from its resource advantages in the fertilizer sector, while China Petroleum is recognized for its comprehensive energy capabilities [9][22] Group 5 - The electronic resin sector is experiencing rapid growth driven by demand from AI servers, with the global high-frequency and high-speed PCB market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [7][20][33] - The phosphoric fertilizer market is seeing resilience due to overseas agricultural recovery and regional stockpiling, with global prices on the rise [8][20] - The pesticide sector is anticipated to recover as the downward cycle reaches its bottom, supported by increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the U.S. [8][21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Phosphate Industry Industry Overview - The phosphate industry in China is primarily concentrated in Hubei, Yunnan, and Guizhou, with Hubei accounting for approximately 50 million tons of production, representing a significant portion of the total output [1][2] - The industry has faced increasing mining costs due to a decline in the quality of domestic phosphate rock, with costs rising by 15% to 20% [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Environmental Policies**: Stricter environmental regulations have limited the production capacity of small to medium-sized phosphate mines, extending the approval time for mining licenses and increasing financial pressure on companies [1][3] - **Import and Export Trends**: Since 2018, China has become a net importer of phosphate rock, with imports significantly increasing in 2024 while exports have decreased by nearly 70% [1][4] - **Phosphate Fertilizer Demand**: The phosphate fertilizer sector is the largest consumer of phosphate rock, accounting for about 75% of total demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate in the new energy sector indirectly increases the need for phosphoric acid, although the direct usage remains low [1][5] - **Future Capacity Additions**: New phosphate rock production capacity is expected to be added mainly in 2025 and 2026, with projections of 15 million tons and 12 million tons respectively. However, actual demand may not meet this supply [1][6] Additional Important Content - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: The profitability of the phosphate fertilizer industry is heavily reliant on the prices of raw materials like phosphate rock and sulfuric acid, with an estimated industry profit margin of around 7% in 2024 [1][11] - **Energy Efficiency Standards**: By 2026, phosphate fertilizer production companies are required to meet specific energy efficiency benchmarks, which may lead to the elimination of some outdated production capacities [1][12] - **Impact of Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The growth in demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to drive the need for phosphoric acid, but its overall impact on the total demand for phosphate rock is minimal [1][13] - **Market Price Trends**: Current market prices are high, ranging from 800 to 1,000 yuan per ton, influenced by tight supply conditions. Future price trends may see a decline due to cyclical market behaviors [1][8][14] - **Export Dynamics**: The export of phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain stable in 2025, with production anticipated to exceed 18 million tons, driven by increased demand in the new energy sector [1][20] Conclusion The phosphate industry in China is navigating a complex landscape shaped by environmental regulations, shifting demand dynamics, and market pressures. The interplay between domestic production capabilities and import needs will continue to influence pricing and profitability in the coming years.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry as of July 25, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in phosphate fertilizer exports, particularly in June 2025, with ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports reaching 165,600 tons and 506,300 tons respectively, marking substantial month-on-month increases [1]. - The report anticipates a concentrated export period in the third quarter, driven by strong demand from Southeast Asia, which is expected to further boost domestic phosphate fertilizer exports [1]. - Export prices for phosphate fertilizers are favorable, with a notable price difference between domestic and export markets, suggesting potential for increased profitability for leading phosphate companies [2]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - In June 2025, phosphate fertilizer exports saw a significant increase, with ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports rising by 149,600 tons and 493,400 tons respectively compared to May [1]. - The second and third quarters are typically peak export periods, with 2024 data showing that ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports in the second quarter accounted for 41.63% and 30.02% of annual exports, respectively [1]. Price Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, the market average price for ammonium phosphate (55% powder) was 3,303 CNY/ton, while the FOB price for ammonium phosphate (55% granular) was 581 USD/ton, indicating a price difference of 846 CNY/ton [2]. - The price for diammonium phosphate (64% in Hubei) was 3,805 CNY/ton, with an FOB price of 768 USD/ton, resulting in a price difference of 1,680 CNY/ton [2]. Key Companies - Yuntianhua (600096) is identified as a leading domestic phosphate chemical company with a phosphate rock capacity of 14.5 million tons/year and a phosphate fertilizer capacity of 5.55 million tons/year, contributing over 20% to national phosphate fertilizer exports [3]. - Hubei Yihua (000422) is a major producer of diammonium phosphate with a production capacity of 1.26 million tons/year and projected exports of 576,100 tons in 2024 [3]. - Xingfa Group (600141) has a phosphate rock capacity of 5.85 million tons/year and a production capacity of 1 million tons/year for ammonium phosphate, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 104.78% in 2024 [3]. - Xinyangfeng (000902) is a leading player in the compound fertilizer sector, with ammonium phosphate production capacity of 1.85 million tons/year and projected production and sales of 1.9789 million tons and 1.1290 million tons respectively in 2024 [3].