（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 化工ETF天弘（159133）跟踪的是中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数全面覆盖化工各个细分领域，包 含磷化工、氟化工、磷肥、钾肥等行业龙头。化工ETF天弘（159133）以及联接基金（C类015897）可 一键分享化工板块整体机遇。 国盛证券表示，供给格局改善，化工行业迎来估值修复。自2025年7月"反内卷"热潮以来，化工板块迎 来持续上涨。2025年Q4以来伴随化工ETF的发行、双碳政策发布，化工投资资金侧、供给侧逻辑迎来加 强。 2月2日，三大指数集体下跌，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌5.15%，该指数成分股中，恩捷股份、天 赐材料飘红。 相关ETF方面，化工ETF天弘（159133）截至发稿成交额超6800万元，换手率近3%，溢折率0.05%，盘 中频现溢价交易；Wind金融终端数据显示，该ETF盘中获净申购达8500万份。 资金流向方面，该ETF上个交易日（1月30日）净流入额为2.77亿元，截至上个交易日，已连续23个交 易日获资金净流入，累计净流入额超17亿元。该ETF最新流通份额为19.7亿份，最新流通规模为24.27亿 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine phosphate fertilizer companies in China have jointly issued a commitment to ensure stable supply and pricing of phosphate fertilizers, responding to high sulfur prices affecting production costs [1][2]. Group 1: Companies Involved - The nine phosphate fertilizer companies include Chengdu Yuntu Holdings Co., Ltd., Deyang Haohua Qingping Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd., Guizhou Phosphate (Group) Co., Ltd., Hubei Yihua Group Co., Ltd., Sichuan Development Longmang Co., Ltd., Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd., Shikefeng Chemical Co., Ltd., Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., and Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Commitments Made - The companies have made five key commitments: 1. Stabilizing production to ensure sufficient market supply 2. Actively selling phosphate fertilizers without hoarding or limiting sales 3. Maintaining stable prices until the end of spring farming in 2026 4. Ensuring adequate reserves by prioritizing supply for storage needs 5. Providing emergency support in case of local supply shortages or price instability [2]

Group 1: Transformer Industry - The U.S. market is experiencing a transformer shortage due to electricity constraints impacting AI computing power expansion, with delivery times for transformers increasing from 30-60 weeks to 115-130 weeks, and large transformers taking 2.3-4 years [1] - North America is projected to face a hard electricity capacity and energy shortfall by 2026/2027, necessitating accelerated power and grid construction, with transformer demand expected to grow at an annual rate of 30% [1] - Chinese transformer companies are positioned to fill the gap in North America due to their complete supply chain, cost advantages, and UL/CSA certifications, leading to significant growth in overseas orders for leading firms [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface - A significant breakthrough has been achieved in the second invasive brain-computer interface clinical trial in China, enabling users to control devices with their thoughts at speeds comparable to typical smartphone and computer usage [2][3] - The brain-computer interface industry in China is expected to see substantial development by 2025, with a market size projected to exceed 5.5 billion yuan by 2027, and global medical applications potentially reaching $40 billion to $145 billion by 2030-2040 [3] Group 3: Edge AI - ByteDance's Volcano Engine is set to hold a major technology conference on December 18-19, showcasing new AI hardware and tools, which is expected to drive significant growth in the edge AI market [4] - The edge AI market in China is anticipated to grow from under 200 billion yuan in 2023 to over 1.9 trillion yuan by 2028, with an annual growth rate of 58% driven by hardware improvements, application expansion, and policy support [4] Group 4: Sodium Battery - CATL's sodium-ion battery is expected to begin mass production by December 2025, featuring a high energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a lifespan exceeding 10,000 cycles, marking a significant advancement in battery technology [5][6] - The sodium battery industry is transitioning from R&D to commercialization, with 2026 being a critical year for scaling production and shipments [6] Group 5: Aircraft Maintenance - The aircraft maintenance industry in Hainan is experiencing unprecedented growth due to the benefits of the free trade port policy, with maintenance capacity expected to reach around 700 aircraft annually [7] - Hainan's unique geographical advantages and policy incentives are attracting foreign airlines for aircraft maintenance, potentially saving them 10% to 15% in maintenance costs [7] Group 6: Emotional Interaction Robots - Sichuan's humanoid robot "AIQ," designed for emotional interaction, has been launched, utilizing advanced emotional computing technology to enhance human-robot communication [8] - The introduction of "AIQ" is expected to draw significant market attention due to its innovative approach to emotional interaction and communication [8] Group 7: Phosphate Fertilizer - A meeting organized by key agricultural associations in China emphasized the importance of maintaining high production rates of phosphate fertilizers to ensure supply stability and price control [9] - The rising sulfur prices have impacted the phosphate fertilizer market, with significant price increases observed in recent months [9] Group 8: Hard Disk Drives - The mechanical hard disk market is experiencing a price increase of approximately 4% in Q4, the largest rise in eight quarters, driven by renewed demand from the PC market [10] - The shift towards domestic CPUs and operating systems in China is boosting HDD installation demand as users seek reliable long-term data storage solutions [10] Group 9: Satellite Internet - The UK has approved a new regulatory framework for mobile satellite services, allowing mobile network operators to partner with satellite operators for direct satellite connectivity [11] - The satellite communication sector is transitioning from specialized equipment to mainstream applications, with significant potential in emergency services and outdoor operations [11]

Core Insights - The meeting aimed to address the recent fluctuations in phosphate fertilizer prices and ensure sufficient supply and stable prices during the spring farming season [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent price volatility in the phosphate fertilizer market has raised industry concerns, driven by rising costs of key raw materials like sulfur and sulfuric acid, along with changes in market expectations and supply adjustments [2] - Major phosphate fertilizer producers reported stable production levels, with companies like Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Guizhou Phosphate Group, and Hubei Yihua Group indicating sufficient supply for spring sales [2] - Despite stable production, companies face significant pressure from rising raw material costs, impacting their operational performance [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Strategies - The National Development and Reform Commission indicated that while some regions have seen price increases, overall domestic supply remains stable, providing a solid foundation for winter storage and spring farming [3] - Recommendations to stabilize market expectations include delaying phosphate fertilizer exports until August 2026 to prioritize domestic supply and controlling raw material cost increases through long-term supply agreements [3] - Additional strategies discussed include establishing a long-term trading mechanism, regulating distribution channels, and combating speculative trading practices to maintain reasonable profit margins during critical periods [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sulfur prices have surged dramatically, reaching new highs and breaking historical records, driven by strong external market influences and increased demand from the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 5, 2025, sulfur prices have more than doubled compared to the beginning of the year, with major producers like Shandong Shenchi and Dongming Petrochemical raising prices to 4180 CNY/ton and 4350 CNY/ton respectively [3][4]. - The price increase is attributed to strong external market performance, with Qatar's sulfur contract price rising significantly, leading to higher import costs for China [4]. - Despite high port inventories of 2.2028 million tons, the market sentiment remains bullish, with 71% of surveyed participants expecting further price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The phosphate fertilizer sector is recovering, with production capacity utilization rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate improving, providing support for sulfur prices [6]. - However, rising sulfur prices are squeezing profit margins for major fertilizer companies like Yuntianhua, which reported a 21.88% decline in revenue due to increased production costs [7]. - The market is expected to maintain high price levels through early 2026, driven by seasonal demand for spring planting and limited supply growth [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term price corrections due to year-end inventory adjustments, the long-term outlook for sulfur prices remains bullish, with potential peaks as high as 5000 CNY/ton [6][9]. - The market is characterized by a cautious approach from end-users and traders, who may refrain from aggressive purchasing at record high prices [8]. - The supply side is expected to remain tight, with no new domestic production facilities and limited import growth due to cost pressures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in sulfur prices, which have increased by over 300% since mid-2024, is expected to raise the costs of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and other related materials, potentially impacting the overall cost structure of the lithium battery industry [2][3]. Group 1: Sulfur Price Dynamics - Domestic solid sulfur prices have risen from approximately 915 yuan/ton to around 4100 yuan/ton, with some forecasts predicting prices could reach 6000 yuan/ton [3]. - The price increase is driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with rising contract prices in the Middle East and decreasing domestic port inventories, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors such as phosphate fertilizers and lithium batteries [3][4]. Group 2: Cost Implications for Phosphate Fertilizers - For phosphate fertilizers, a 100 yuan increase in sulfur prices leads to an approximate 50 yuan increase in production costs [6]. - Current estimates suggest that the cost of producing monoammonium phosphate has exceeded 4200 yuan/ton, while the selling price is around 3650 yuan/ton, indicating a loss of nearly 600 yuan per ton [6]. Group 3: Impact on Lithium Iron Phosphate Production - The production of one ton of lithium iron phosphate requires about 0.23 tons of sulfur, translating to a cost increase from approximately 210 yuan to 940 yuan per ton of LFP as sulfur prices rise [10]. - The overall cost structure of LFP shows that raw materials account for over 80% of total costs, with lithium sources and iron phosphate being significant components [11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The increase in sulfur costs is seen as a pressure point for LFP producers, who are already facing thin margins due to prolonged price declines and industry losses [16][17]. - The market is currently witnessing a rebound in processing fees for LFP, but the fundamental issues of profitability remain unresolved [16]. - The industry must focus on managing costs and pricing strategies, particularly in light of potential further increases in sulfur prices and their implications for overall production costs [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the organic silicon industry, highlighting its potential benefits from the chemical sector's internal competition [4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 7.47% in the third week of November, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.58 percentage points [13]. - The only sub-industry that saw an increase was petroleum processing, which rose by 2.64%, while 31 sub-industries declined, with the largest drop in acrylic fiber at -15.33% [17]. - Key products with significant price increases included dimethyl carbonate (+12.32%) and thionyl chloride (+11.39%), while liquid chlorine saw the largest decrease at -6.25% [22][3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that benefit from the chemical sector's internal competition, such as Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 23.78, significantly higher than the average PE of 5.33 since 2015 [13]. - The total number of stocks in the industry is 446, with a total market value of 7114.2 billion and a circulating market value of 6648.5 billion [5]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases and decreases, indicating significant volatility in the market [22][3]. - The price spread for propylene (methanol-based) increased by 296.55%, while the PTA spread decreased by 157.04% [42][46]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in stocks of chlorpyrifos (-12.5%) and propylene oxide (-11.83%), while polyester filament saw an increase of 10.21% [66].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continued its adjustment, with the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index closing down 4.30% last Friday and down 6.47% for the week, but still showing a cumulative increase of 27.66% since the second half of the year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by over 16% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) will be listed on November 25, having raised a net subscription amount of 549.89 million RMB during its fundraising period from November 10 to November 12, with a total of 549.91 million shares issued [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, including phosphorus chemicals, fluorine chemicals, phosphorus fertilizers, and potassium fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry has seen an increase in profit growth in the first three quarters, continuing its bottom recovery, with the overall gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing a slight year-on-year recovery [2] - The profitability of sub-industries within the basic chemical sector has shown significant differentiation, with improvements noted in fluorine chemicals, potassium fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers [2]

Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - In the first three quarters, 540 listed chemical companies in the basic chemical sector achieved total operating revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%; net profit reached 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69%, indicating continuous improvement in overall performance and solid steps towards high-quality development [1] Group 2: Subsector Performance - The potassium fertilizer market has seen strong performance, with four potassium fertilizer companies achieving total operating revenue of 20.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.62%; net profit reached 9.445 billion yuan, up 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry benefited from a sustained high demand, with five refrigerant companies reporting total operating revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.51%; net profit reached 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry showed broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 pesticide companies achieving total operating revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%; net profit reached 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 3: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, supply-demand mismatches remain a major challenge for high-quality development. The carbon black industry is experiencing price declines and high costs, leading to losses for most companies [4] - The tire industry faced a decline in net profit, with six tire companies reporting total operating revenue of 31.605 billion yuan, down 3.75%; net profit fell to 0.01 billion yuan, down 559% [4] - The titanium dioxide industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with nine companies reporting total operating revenue of 45.504 billion yuan, down 11.97%; net profit decreased to 2.515 billion yuan, down 45.67% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to continue to diverge, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers. The price of mainstream refrigerant R32 is projected to reach 60,200 yuan per ton in Q4, an increase of 18.97% from Q3 [5] - The potassium fertilizer market's supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, with high prices likely to persist [5] - Conversely, the titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer industries may face challenges, with predictions of oversupply in the nitrogen fertilizer market by 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The basic chemical sector's performance has shown continuous improvement, with 540 listed companies achieving a total revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%, and a net profit of 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69% [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer sectors have experienced significant profit growth due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with potassium fertilizer companies reporting a revenue increase of 60.62% and a net profit increase of 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry has maintained a strong performance, with five companies achieving a revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, up 19.51%, and a net profit of 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry has shown broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 companies reporting a revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, up 6.56%, and a net profit of 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 2: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, the industry faces challenges due to supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the carbon black and tire sectors, where companies have reported significant losses [4] - The tire industry has seen a revenue increase of 10.03% but a net profit decline of 18.17%, indicating a disparity in profitability among companies [4] - The titanium dioxide sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with revenues down 11.97% and net profits down 45.67% for nine companies [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to remain differentiated, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers, while challenges are anticipated for titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer sectors [5] - The refrigerant market is projected to see price increases, with the main product R32 reaching a long-term contract price of 60,200 yuan per ton, an 18.97% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces oversupply issues, with production capacity expected to exceed demand by 2025, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [5]