2026年全球宏观面临极大不确定性，在全球贸易格局重塑、化工资本开支放缓的情况下，该行建议关注 两大确定性较高的投资主线：反内卷与国产替代。25年受上游大宗能源价格下降及化工品供需承压影 响，中国化工产品价格指数回落至低位。截至25年11月30日，中国化工产品价格指数（CCPI）报收 3865点，较2024年初的4622点下降16.37%，较今年年初的4329点下降10.71%，近五年历史百分位为 16.28%。 综合整治内卷式竞争，积极把握周期反转机会 有机硅国内新增产能见顶，海外厂商持续退出，领先企业带领行业修复；PTA产能扩张阶段性收尾，涤 纶长丝产能趋于集中，聚酯链景气度有望回升；己内酰胺价格跌至低点，行业开启自发反内卷；原药价 格指数触底反弹，高频率安全事故导致关键农药全球供应链中断风险骤增，突发性供给收缩成为价格修 复关键催化；氨纶价格长期低于成本线行业普遍亏损，新增产能投放显著减缓，供给格局优化有望驱动 价格回升；维生素2024年价格大幅上涨全球供应趋紧格局延续；代糖行业受益全球减糖政策及健康意识 提升，天然代糖渗透率持续提高合成生物学技术进步进一步拓宽发展空间；制冷剂二代配额加速削减、 三代进 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

Industry News - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines to promote the integrated development of renewable energy, aiming for significant improvements in reliability and market competitiveness by 2030 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that over 600,000 technology and innovation-oriented SMEs have been cultivated in China, with more than 140,000 specialized and innovative SMEs [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinions on the management measures for the printed circuit board industry, emphasizing the need for technological advancement and quality improvement [10] - The Ministry of Education has outlined plans to establish a comprehensive technology education system in primary and secondary schools by 2030, enhancing practical skills and interdisciplinary teaching methods [11] - The State Post Bureau reported that from October 21 to November 11, the national express delivery companies collected 13.938 billion packages, with a daily average of 634 million, indicating a significant expansion in the express delivery market [12] Company News - Haibo Sichuang has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL to procure a total of no less than 200 GWh of electricity from 2026 to 2028 [16] - Century Huatong plans to repurchase between 500 million to 1 billion yuan of its shares for cancellation [16] - Changrong Co. intends to establish a controlling subsidiary to cooperate in the construction of a 100 MW photovoltaic power station [16] - CATL has begun mass production of its fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate battery products [16] - Shengton Mining is advancing its internationalization process with a planned investment of 1.423 billion yuan in its subsidiary [16] - Jingyuan Environmental Protection has won a water treatment project in the power industry worth approximately 143 million yuan [16] - Sturdy Medical's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest 2 billion yuan to build a production base for all-cotton spunlace non-woven fabric [16] - Giant Star Legend is deepening its cooperation with Yushu Technology to accelerate the commercialization of the robotics industry [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market remained in high - level oscillation this week, with price - rising factors and future expectations dominating market hotspots. The index followed technical indicators and rebounded after filling two upward gaps in the Shanghai Composite Index in late October. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating [4]. - The "V - shaped reversal" of the U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits [4]. - In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline, the discount reached the weekly maximum on Wednesday when the market rebounded, and then began to converge on Thursday with a significant decline in positions, indicating signs of short - position reduction [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Weekly Key News - On October 31, Chairman Wu Qing proposed to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [3]. - Affected by the AI bubble, concerns about the U.S. government shutdown, and the liquidity crisis, U.S. stocks fell across the board this week, with the Nasdaq posting its largest single - week decline since early April [3]. - In October 2025, China's CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, PPI fell 2.1% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [3]. - In October, China's export growth in U.S. dollar terms was - 1.1% (previous value 8.3%), and import growth was 1.0% (previous value 7.4%) [3]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - In the third quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus was 1.3948 trillion yuan, and the capital and financial account (including the net error and omission in the current quarter) had a deficit of 1.3948 trillion yuan, with inbound direct investment remaining in net inflow [3]. - On November 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Measures for the Administration of the Securities Settlement Risk Fund", which will come into effect on December 8, 2025, with differential adjustments to the payment ratio of the risk fund [3]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Analysis - Logic: The market was in high - level oscillation this week. Rising prices of commodities such as phosphate fertilizer and lithium hexafluorophosphate boosted related sectors. Investment expectations in AI, Hainan Free Trade, and Haixi Construction became market hotspots, and bank stocks rose against the trend during market adjustments [4]. - Outlook: The "V - shaped reversal" of U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating. In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline and then converged with a decline in positions, indicating short - position reduction [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The market is expected to rise while oscillating. Buy on dips around the Shanghai Composite Index of 3980 points and avoid chasing high prices [5]. - Arbitrage: Conduct spot - futures arbitrage by going long on IM/IC 2512 and short on ETFs [5]. - Options: Buy bull spreads on dips [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 A - share Index Performance - The performance data of A - share indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 from November 3 to November 7, 2025 are presented [9]. 3.2.2 A - share Trading Volume - The trading volume data of the A - share market and the trading volume proportion of major indices from May 6, 2025, to October 30, 2025, are shown [12][13]. 3.2.3 A - share Rise and Fall - The rise - fall situation and the proportion of stocks hitting the daily limit or daily low limit of the A - share market from August 1, 2025, to November 7, 2025, are presented [15]. 3.2.4 A - share Margin Trading - The margin balance, the ratio of margin balance to A - share floating market value, margin net buying, and the ratio of margin buying to A - share trading volume are presented [19][20]. 3.2.5 A - share Industry Performance - The weekly rise - fall rates and industry popularity of A - share industries are shown [23]. 3.2.6 A - share Industry Fund Flow - The weekly net inflow of funds and margin net buying in A - share industries are presented [26]. 3.2.7 A - share Market Financing - The IPO financing and private placement financing data of the A - share market are presented [28][29]. 3.2.8 A - share Index Valuation - The PE - TTM, PB - MRQ, and their quantiles, medians, danger values, and opportunity values of various A - share indices are presented [31]. 3.2.9 Stock Index Futures Basis Change - The basis change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 7, 2025, are presented [33]. 3.2.10 Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Change - The trading volume and open interest change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 6, 2025, are presented [36]. 3.2.11 Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The trading volume comparison data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures and their corresponding spot indices are presented [38]. 3.2.12 Stock Index Futures Main Open Interest - The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of IF, IC, IM, and IH stock index futures are presented [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 38.25, based on a 45x PE for FY26 [3][13]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the prices of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate, driven by fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices and increasing downstream demand, leading to improved supply-demand balance [2][12]. - A cooperation agreement with REPT Battero Energy has been signed, ensuring a minimum purchase of 800,000 tons of electrolyte products from the company, which is expected to positively impact financial performance from 2026 to 2030 [4][15]. - The company is progressing in solid-state battery materials, with plans to complete pilot production line construction by 2026, enhancing its production capabilities [4][15]. - The company aims to increase the usage of recycled lithium carbonate, ensuring compliance with regulations and meeting customer demands [4][15]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company are RMB 1.140 billion, RMB 1.625 billion, and RMB 2.251 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant growth [3][5]. - Total revenue is expected to rise from RMB 12.518 billion in 2024 to RMB 23.927 billion by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.2% [5][9]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 3.8% in 2024 to 9.3% in 2027, showcasing enhanced profitability [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) industry and the energy storage sector, highlighting the current market dynamics and future trends [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Energy Storage Orders and Price Increases**: The energy storage market is experiencing a shift in supply and demand, with small cell prices, particularly in residential storage, increasing due to tight market conditions [1][2]. - **LiPF6 Price Trends**: The supply-demand situation for LiPF6 is expected to remain tight, leading to price increases. The rise in lithium carbonate prices has contributed to higher costs, exacerbating the industry's poor profitability and fueling price hike expectations [1][3]. - **Turning Point in Energy Storage Industry**: The energy storage sector is transitioning from oversupply to a balanced state, with potential price increases anticipated in the second half of the year due to rising demand and material costs [1][4]. - **Competitive Advantages of Key Players**: Companies like CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) and EVE Energy Co., Ltd. hold significant competitive advantages in the energy storage cell market, with EVE's large shipment volumes making its price increases more influential [1][5]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies such as Airo and Sunshine, which have signed fixed-price contracts, are expected to benefit from inflation. Major LiPF6 producers like Tinci Materials and Tianqi Lithium will also benefit from price increases due to high capacity utilization [1][6]. - **LiPF6 Production and Price Forecast**: Starting from August 2025, LiPF6 monthly production is expected to reach record highs, with a projected annual demand of approximately 230,000 tons. Short-term supply constraints are driving price increases [1][8]. - **2026 LiPF6 Supply-Demand Outlook**: Even with a conservative growth estimate of 20% for the lithium battery industry, the supply-demand balance for LiPF6 in 2026 is expected to remain tight, with potential shortages in certain quarters leading to further price increases [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Current Market Performance of LiPF6**: LiPF6 has shown strong performance in the materials segment, with significant price increases driven by high market concentration and poor profitability among leading companies [1][3]. - **Long-term Outlook for Other Companies**: Companies like Jiayuan, despite recent underperformance, are still viewed positively for their long-term growth potential [1][7]. - **Profitability in the LiPF6 Industry**: Only Tinci Materials reported slight profits in the first half of the year, while others like Dongfang and Tianqi are currently operating at a loss. The industry is collectively pushing for price increases due to these challenges [1][10]. - **Drivers Behind LiPF6 Price Increases**: The primary drivers for the price increases in 2025 are the rising prices of lithium carbonate and changes in supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of continued demand growth in 2026 [1][11].