Core Viewpoint - The report from Macquarie suggests that unless trade negotiations or geopolitical relations deteriorate, emerging market inflows and improved liquidity in H-shares will provide support for the A-share market in the next six months [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to receive support due to a 20% year-on-year increase in industrial profits in August, driven by anti-involution policies in upstream industries [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on enhancing social welfare, potentially leading to structural inflows into the stock market [1] - Reforms in household savings, insurance, and private pensions could add approximately 43 trillion RMB in potential investments to the stock market over the next decade, equivalent to 41% of the total market capitalization of A-shares in Q3 this year [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The company currently prefers H-shares over A-shares due to quality rotation and IPOs attracting more investor attention to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Despite this preference, the company remains optimistic about A-share performance in the medium term, as national policy reforms are expected to drive capital inflows [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The company favors sectors such as internet and consumer services while avoiding the energy sector and low-beta, high-dividend stocks [1] - Selected high-beta, high-quality stocks that are currently undervalued include BYD Company Limited (01211), Wuliangye Yibin Co., Ltd. (000858.SZ), Anta Sports Products Limited (02020), and Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (06862) [1]

麦格理发表研究报告指，除非贸易谈判或地缘政治关系破裂，否则在未来六个月内，新兴市场资金流 入，加上H股流动性改善将带来顺风；A股市场或能获得支持，因上游行业的反内卷政策推动8月工业利 润按年增长20%，且年底前可能推出更多零星的消费刺激措施。该行认为，即将公布的十五五规划重点 在于加强社会福利，预期将在国内引发结构性资金流入股市，加上可能实施的家庭存款、保险及私人养 老金改革，或于未来十年为股市新增约43万亿元的潜在投资，相当于今年第三季A股总市值的41%。 该行目前偏好H股多于A股，因质素轮动及IPO将吸引更多投资者关注港股市场。不过，该行中期仍看 好A股表现，因国策改革将推动资金流入。行业方面，该行偏好互联网、消费服务等板块，筛选得出高 Beta、高质素且股价较为落后的股份，包括比亚迪、五粮液、安踏及海底捞。 ...