Core Viewpoint - The report from Macquarie suggests that unless trade negotiations or geopolitical relations deteriorate, emerging market inflows and improved liquidity in H-shares will provide support for the A-share market in the next six months [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to receive support due to a 20% year-on-year increase in industrial profits in August, driven by anti-involution policies in upstream industries [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on enhancing social welfare, potentially leading to structural inflows into the stock market [1] - Reforms in household savings, insurance, and private pensions could add approximately 43 trillion RMB in potential investments to the stock market over the next decade, equivalent to 41% of the total market capitalization of A-shares in Q3 this year [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The company currently prefers H-shares over A-shares due to quality rotation and IPOs attracting more investor attention to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Despite this preference, the company remains optimistic about A-share performance in the medium term, as national policy reforms are expected to drive capital inflows [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The company favors sectors such as internet and consumer services while avoiding the energy sector and low-beta, high-dividend stocks [1] - Selected high-beta, high-quality stocks that are currently undervalued include BYD Company Limited (01211), Wuliangye Yibin Co., Ltd. (000858.SZ), Anta Sports Products Limited (02020), and Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (06862) [1]

前几天，美国8月的就业数据增长几乎停滞，而且失业金申领人数上升到了近四年高位，这就意味着目前美国就业市场的降温速度可能远超预 期。所以，美联储现在需要降息，来防止经济进一步下滑，并且提振就业。 可是，目前美国的通胀水平仍旧高于2%的目标。就业和通胀，这就像跷跷板的两边，美联储必须权衡二者之间的矛盾，这也是美联储为什么 隔了半年多才再次降息的原因。 为什么美联储这次选择降息？ 美元在全球使用广泛，美联储降息，受影响的不仅仅是美国。那么，对我们中国老百姓有哪些影响呢？ 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，最新利率区间是4.0%～4.25%。这是美联储时隔9个月之后，再一次调整政策利率水平。 美联储降息，美元资产的吸引力也会有所下降。资金就会在一定程度上离开美国，寻找更赚钱的投资机会。 今年以来，这种趋势越来越明显。万得数据显示，今年1-8月新兴市场资金净流入达到2560.8亿美元，比去年同期增长35%。全球资金正对那些 未来经济发展预期更好的新兴市场，展现出了越来越多的兴趣。 还有人会问，美元降息会不会推高黄金价格？ 老王告诉你，投资黄金还是要谨慎。近期黄金价格连创新高，的确和美联储降息有关，但是降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America anticipates significant capital inflows into emerging markets at the beginning of next year, driven by a shift of funds away from U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Emerging Market Outlook - Emerging markets are showing resilience, leading to expectations of increased capital inflows [1] - Optimism is expected to rise as the impact of trade tensions is perceived to be limited [1] - Even small-scale diversified investment flows from the U.S. could have a substantial effect on emerging markets [1] Group 2: Investment Drivers - Factors contributing to the positive outlook for emerging markets include a weaker dollar, potential for further interest rate cuts by central banks, and historically low allocation of global funds to emerging markets [1] - Key beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows are identified as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland [1]