来源：华尔街见闻 美国总统特朗普宣布与印度达成贸易协议后，华盛顿与莫斯科对协议内容的解读出现明显分歧。特朗普 声称新德里已同意停止购买俄罗斯石油，但克里姆林宫表示尚未收到印度方面任何相关表态。 据央视新闻，2月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，他在与印度总理莫迪的通 话中达成协议，印度同意停止购买俄罗斯石油，转而从美国及可能从委内瑞拉购买更多石油。作为交 换，美国将把对印度的主要关税从25%降至18%，并取消去年夏天因印度购买俄油而加征的额外25%惩 罚性关税。 对此，据CCTV国际时讯，克里姆林宫发言人Dmitry Peskov周三表示，俄罗斯未收到印度不再购买俄罗 斯石油的任何信息。俄罗斯副总理、前石油部长Alexander Novak则淡化潜在损失，称"我们只看到公开 声明，我们会观察局势如何发展"。 分析人士普遍质疑印度是否会完全停止购买俄罗斯石油，认为此举将带来重大经济影响。 印度保持沉默 莫迪周一在社交平台X上确认与美国达成协议，称"很高兴印度制造的产品现在将享受18%的降低关 税"，但并未提及俄罗斯石油问题。新德里方面至今未就是否停止购买俄油发表任何评论。 克里姆林宫发言人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi is set to reshape global energy dynamics and geopolitical relations, focusing on energy cooperation as a key agenda item [2][4]. Group 1: Energy Cooperation - Energy cooperation is the central theme of the upcoming talks, with discussions on nuclear localization, technology transfer, and small nuclear power projects expected to yield multiple agreements during Putin's visit [4]. - India's import of Russian oil aligns with its energy security needs and plays a positive role in stabilizing international oil prices, becoming a crucial pillar of the bilateral relationship despite external pressures [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. has imposed heavy tariffs on Indian goods, reaching a total tax rate of 50%, in response to India's oil imports from Russia, which has led to significant challenges for Indian exporters [7]. - The Modi government has shown resilience against U.S. pressure, emphasizing the protection of farmers and small businesses while implementing measures like fiscal support and tax reforms [7][10]. Group 3: Long-term Relations - The longstanding Russia-India relationship transcends mere trade, encompassing comprehensive cooperation in energy, military, and cultural sectors, which is expected to be reinforced during the upcoming visit [10]. - The meeting is anticipated to not only enhance energy collaboration but also establish mechanisms for Indian labor in various sectors in Russia, further solidifying bilateral ties [10]. Group 4: International Implications - India's Foreign Minister has criticized U.S. actions as unreasonable and unjust, asserting that India's energy import decisions are based solely on national interests, unaffected by external pressures [12]. - The deepening Russia-India cooperation is likely to influence global energy market dynamics and geopolitical balance, warranting ongoing observation from various stakeholders [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Macquarie suggests that unless trade negotiations or geopolitical relations deteriorate, emerging market inflows and improved liquidity in H-shares will provide support for the A-share market in the next six months [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to receive support due to a 20% year-on-year increase in industrial profits in August, driven by anti-involution policies in upstream industries [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on enhancing social welfare, potentially leading to structural inflows into the stock market [1] - Reforms in household savings, insurance, and private pensions could add approximately 43 trillion RMB in potential investments to the stock market over the next decade, equivalent to 41% of the total market capitalization of A-shares in Q3 this year [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - The company currently prefers H-shares over A-shares due to quality rotation and IPOs attracting more investor attention to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Despite this preference, the company remains optimistic about A-share performance in the medium term, as national policy reforms are expected to drive capital inflows [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The company favors sectors such as internet and consumer services while avoiding the energy sector and low-beta, high-dividend stocks [1] - Selected high-beta, high-quality stocks that are currently undervalued include BYD Company Limited (01211), Wuliangye Yibin Co., Ltd. (000858.SZ), Anta Sports Products Limited (02020), and Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (06862) [1]