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申万期货品种策略日报:软商品-20260401
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar showed signs of stabilizing overnight. With the volatile Middle - East situation, the ethanol - to - sugar price conversion and sugar mills' adjustment of the sugar - making ratio need to be monitored. The sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 crushing season may decline, and the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the expected reduction in Brazil's output may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar's price center has risen due to the boost from the external market, and the impact of macro factors on the market should be noted [5]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly overnight. The import expectation and the previously rumored additional processing trade import quota (sliding duty) for cotton have been implemented, and the issuance time is earlier than before, which may put some pressure on cotton prices in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the near future. In the long - term, with increased consumption and last year's low carry - over inventory, the supply this year is expected to be tight. Considering the policy - regulated planting area, the general trend of Zhengzhou cotton remains unchanged [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of sugar contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2611 were 5431, 5398, and 5455 respectively, with price drops of - 36, - 43, and - 30 and percentage drops of - 0.66%, - 0.79%, and - 0.55% respectively. The 11 - number sugar contracts 2610, 2607, and 2605 had previous day closing prices of 16.04, 15.67, and 16.04 respectively, with price drops of - 0.11, - 0.1, and - 0.11 and percentage drops of - 0.68%, - 0.63%, and - 0.68% respectively [2]. - **Cotton Futures**: No detailed futures - related data for cotton is provided in the report. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5460 and 5295 respectively. The current basis for Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 is 5 and - 160 respectively. The quota - within and quota - outside import prices from Brazil are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and from Thailand are 3847 and 4912 respectively [2]. Industry News - **Yunnan Sugar Production**: The first sugar mill in Yunnan finished crushing in late March. Due to increased sugarcane production, most sugar mills may extend their production time, and the crushing end time may be postponed, making the sugar output in this crushing season uncertain. In March, strong winds and continuous rainfall in Yunnan affected sugarcane cutting and transportation, reducing the amount of sugarcane for crushing. The estimated single - month sugar production in Yunnan in March is 56 - 58 tons, less than last year's 60.85 tons [3]. - **Brazil Sugar Production and Export**: In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% to 2.9 billion tons from 3.38 billion tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production in 2026/27 is expected to drop from 4.35 billion tons to 4.03 billion tons as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane for ethanol production due to high energy prices [3]. - **India Sugar Production**: In the 2025 - 26 crushing season, the sugar - cane crushing in Maharashtra, India, is nearing the end. As of March 24, 2026, 183 out of 210 sugar mills have finished crushing. The sugar output in the state has reached 9.8838 million tons, with a current average sugar - extraction rate of 9.48% [4].