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新能源及有色金属日报:宏观影响下,镍不锈钢价格止跌反弹-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:50
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 宏观影响下,镍不锈钢价格止跌反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2025-08-25日沪镍主力合约2510开于119550元/吨,收于120310元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化0.59%,当日成交量为 119179手,持仓量为110337手。 期货方面:沪镍主力合约开盘报119550元/吨,受美联储鸽派预期影响,期货盘面持续走强,盘中最高触及 120690 元/吨,最终收于120310元/吨,涨幅0.59%。价格波动区间较窄,显示多空双方在12万元/吨关口附近博弈激烈,但 资金流入推动下多头占据主导。 镍矿方面:当日镍矿市场整体交投活跃度处于中等水平,镍矿主流价格保持稳定态势。菲律宾矿端方面,矿山企 业报价态度坚决,维持坚挺态势,未出现降价让利情况;装船出货环节虽受到局部降雨天气影响,但整体作业效 率未受显著冲击,出货节奏基本正常,对市场供应稳定性影响有限。印尼市场层面,8 月(二期)镍矿内贸基准 价较前期出现小幅下调,调整幅度在 0.03-0.04 美元区间;内贸升水方面,当前市场主流升水水平维持在+24的固 定标准,暂未发生变动。9月(一期)镍矿内贸升水目前市场各方仍在协 ...
纯苯、苯乙烯日报:短期或有支撑,基本面中期仍承压-20250825
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 15:34
能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 短期或有支撑,基本面中期仍承压 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 (1)基本面 价格:8 月 22 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 1.22%,报 7378 元/吨,基差-3(-29 元/吨);纯苯主力合约收涨 0.13%,报 6208 元/吨。 成本:8 月 22 日布油主力收盘 63.5(+0.8 美元/桶),WTI 原油主力合约收 盘 67.7 桶(+0.8 美元/桶),华东纯苯现货报价 6090 元/吨(-20 元/吨)。 库存:苯乙烯样本工厂库存 20.3 万吨(-0.3 万吨),环比去库 1.1%,江苏 港口库存 16.2 万吨(+1.3 万吨),环比累库库 8.5%,苯乙烯恢复累库。 纯苯港口库存 14.4 万吨(-0.2 万吨),环比去库 1.1%。 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 8 月 25 日 星期一 供应:苯乙烯 8 月底将有装置检修,供应或有减少。目前,苯乙烯周产量 37.1 万吨(+0.2 万吨),工厂产能利用率 78.5%(+0.3%)。 需求:下游 3S 开工率变化不一,其中 EPS 产能利用率 61.0%(+2.9%), ABS 产能利用率 71.1 ...
供给过剩格局不改,价格偏弱运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:25
Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 120,010 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 90,715 lots and an open interest of 102,385 lots [1]. - In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,430 yuan/ton, then quickly rose to 121,080 yuan/ton, but then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 119,620 yuan/ton and finally closing at 120,060 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots. The daily session opened at 120,010 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 119,780 - 120,590 yuan/ton, and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 90,715 lots. The LME nickel price fell to 15,050 US dollars/ton during the daily session, intensifying the bearish sentiment in the domestic market [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises slightly improved. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588 (29.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 209,598 (252) tons [3]. Strategy - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The production capacity of nickel intermediate products continues to be released, and the price of the ore end is loosening. In the short term, the nickel price will mainly fluctuate and move closer to the cost below. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 99,736 lots and an open interest of 138,810 lots [4]. - In the night session, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,870 yuan/ton, rose to 12,895 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 12,765 yuan/ton and finally closing at 12,820 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots. The daily session opened at 12,830 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 12,785 - 12,860 yuan/ton, and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 99,736 lots. The spot market prices in Wuxi and Foshan were 13,050 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 928.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, demand is weak, and affected by macro news, it is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in a range in the near future. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].
过剩格局延续 PVC仍在寻底过程中
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-22 00:32
Group 1 - The overall PVC market is experiencing a downward trend due to rapid upstream capacity growth and weak downstream demand, with approximately 50% of demand affected by the real estate sector, leading to an overall supply surplus [1][2] - Recent significant price declines in the PVC market are driven by two main factors: the commissioning of new production facilities increasing supply and the final ruling of anti-dumping duties on PVC from India, which negatively impacts China's PVC export demand [1][4] - The PVC market is expected to continue fluctuating downwards unless macroeconomic factors change, with potential strategies for achieving balance including reducing upstream production through price cuts or increasing exports [1][3] Group 2 - Three new PVC production facilities have been commissioned, adding a total of 1.1 million tons per year to the market, exacerbating the supply surplus [3] - From January to July, PVC exports from China increased significantly, totaling 2.29 million tons, a 57% year-on-year increase, which had previously alleviated domestic supply pressures [4] - The increase in anti-dumping duties imposed by India on Chinese PVC will significantly reduce the price competitiveness of Chinese exports to India, further contributing to the ongoing supply surplus [4]
新能源及有色金属日报:进口量大增,沪镍价格延续下跌趋势-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:04
Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 120,330 yuan/ton and closed at 119,930 yuan/ton, a change of -0.48% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 63,676 lots and an open interest of 50,856 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel switched to the 2510 contract. The night session opened flat at 120,430 yuan/ton, fluctuating between 120,200 - 121,080 yuan/ton. Affected by weak new - energy demand and stainless - steel inventory pressure, it failed to break through the key resistance level of 121,000 yuan/ton. The night session closed down 0.33% at 120,450 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,118 lots, about 15% less than the previous day. The day session briefly rose to 120,940 yuan/ton but then fell to an intraday low of 119,620 yuan/ton due to increased domestic inventory and the continued decline of LME nickel. The final closing price dropped to 120,060 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots, about 23% more than the night session. LME nickel fell 0.73% and 0.60% on August 19 and 20 respectively, reaching a two - week low of 15,060 US dollars/ton [2] - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the nickel ore price is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly 32 US dollars. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, but iron plants are still in losses and are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in August decreased slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second phase of August to decline [3] - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a 124% increase from the previous month and a 703% increase from the same period last year. Among them, the imports of other unwrought non - alloy nickel were 35,506 tons, accounting for 93% of the refined nickel imports. Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable, with a slight increase in the spot premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel [3] Strategy - In the short term, nickel prices will be weak, with large inventory pressure and a significant increase in imports. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 12,820 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots and an open interest of 135,764 lots [5] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,000 yuan/ton in the night session, then quickly dropped to an intraday low of 12,855 yuan/ton due to the decline of LME nickel, and finally closed down 140 yuan at 12,885 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%, with a trading volume of 134,000 lots, about 18% more than the previous day. The night session showed the characteristic of short - side active position - increasing, and the net short positions of the top 20 seats increased to 11,449 lots. The day session briefly rebounded to 12,895 yuan/ton but then fell again due to the accumulation of stainless - steel social inventory and the expectation of the release of Indonesian nickel ore quotas. The final closing price dropped to 12,820 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.50%, with a trading volume of 149,700 lots, a five - day high. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,215 tons to 44,298 tons, a decline of 4.76% [6] - The spot market trading of stainless steel is increasingly light, mainly concentrated on low - price resources. Affected by the decline of the futures market and the completion of downstream restocking, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the future market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is also 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 310 - 510 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand and no fundamental change in the fundamentals, it is expected that the stainless - steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]
新能源及有色金属日报:多空博弈激烈,沪镍不锈钢震荡走弱-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:16
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-20 多空博弈激烈,沪镍不锈钢震荡走弱 镍品种 2025-08-19日沪镍主力合约2509开于120490元/吨,收于120330元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化-0.37%,当日成交量 为63677手,持仓量为55967手。 期货方面:沪镍主力即将更换至2510合约,今日主力合约夜盘开盘后快速冲高至 121,450 元 / 吨,但未能站稳高 位,随后回落至 120,140 元 / 吨,最终收于 120,340 元 / 吨,较前日结算价下跌 350 元,跌幅 0.29%。成交量 78,139 手,持仓量 62,507 手,显示夜盘交易活跃度较高,但持仓量未显著增加,多空资金博弈后选择离场。日盘延续弱 势,开盘价 120,490 元,最高价 120,950 元,最低价 120,050 元,最终收于 120,330 元,下跌 450 元,跌幅 0.37%。 成交量 63,677 手,持仓量减少至 55,967 手,较夜盘减少 6,540 手,资金离场迹象明显。8 月 18 日 LME 镍价收 于 15,095 美元 / 吨,下跌 0.66%,8 月 19 日进一步跌至 15, ...
五矿期货农产品早报-20250819
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and it is expected to start destocking in September. The market has both bullish and bearish factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [6][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [11][12]. - The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments. The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [17][19]. - The pig price is expected to remain stable. The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons. The Brazilian soybean premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, and the downstream inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of port soybeans converted to soybean meal and oil mill soybean meal is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield decreased by 1.78%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. Indonesia has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. The domestic spot basis of the three major oils is stable at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price remained unchanged. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price increased slightly. In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price has been adjusted with slight increases and decreases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion is moderate. The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable with local weakness. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [21].
有色金属日报-20250814
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 11:07
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]
新能源及有色金属日报:沪镍、不锈钢震荡走弱,现货交投惨淡-20250814
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:10
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]
新能源及有色金属日报:沪镍偏强运行,不锈钢持续上涨-20250813
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 07:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile market, influenced more by macro - emotions, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and run relatively strongly in the near future, as the continuous stimulus of recent macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market to some extent, alleviating the previous pessimistic sentiment [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,020 yuan/ton and closed at 122,440 yuan/ton, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 96,355 lots, and the open interest was 73,889 lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly after a low - open in the night session, maintained a volatile trend after reaching a high and declined slightly. It maintained a strong volatile trend after the opening of the day session and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest continued to decrease slightly. The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong intention to hold prices, and downstream iron plants' pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly +24, flat month - on - month. The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 124,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum slowed down slightly. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and spot trading did not improve. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,693 (- 30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,746 (+450) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly operate within the range for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,150 yuan/ton and closed at 13,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,429 lots, and the open interest was 143,674 lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a volatile trend, continued the trend after the opening of the day session, and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The market supply of stainless steel was in short supply, traders had a clear intention to hold prices, and with the continuous stimulus of macro - policy news, the spot price of stainless steel further increased. However, downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high - priced goods, resulting in intense market gaming and poor trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium or discount was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [2] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]