Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar showed signs of stabilizing overnight. With the volatile Middle - East situation, the ethanol - to - sugar price conversion and sugar mills' adjustment of the sugar - making ratio need to be monitored. The sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 crushing season may decline, and the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the expected reduction in Brazil's output may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar's price center has risen due to the boost from the external market, and the impact of macro factors on the market should be noted [5]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly overnight. The import expectation and the previously rumored additional processing trade import quota (sliding duty) for cotton have been implemented, and the issuance time is earlier than before, which may put some pressure on cotton prices in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the near future. In the long - term, with increased consumption and last year's low carry - over inventory, the supply this year is expected to be tight. Considering the policy - regulated planting area, the general trend of Zhengzhou cotton remains unchanged [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of sugar contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2611 were 5431, 5398, and 5455 respectively, with price drops of - 36, - 43, and - 30 and percentage drops of - 0.66%, - 0.79%, and - 0.55% respectively. The 11 - number sugar contracts 2610, 2607, and 2605 had previous day closing prices of 16.04, 15.67, and 16.04 respectively, with price drops of - 0.11, - 0.1, and - 0.11 and percentage drops of - 0.68%, - 0.63%, and - 0.68% respectively [2]. - **Cotton Futures**: No detailed futures - related data for cotton is provided in the report. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5460 and 5295 respectively. The current basis for Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 is 5 and - 160 respectively. The quota - within and quota - outside import prices from Brazil are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and from Thailand are 3847 and 4912 respectively [2]. Industry News - **Yunnan Sugar Production**: The first sugar mill in Yunnan finished crushing in late March. Due to increased sugarcane production, most sugar mills may extend their production time, and the crushing end time may be postponed, making the sugar output in this crushing season uncertain. In March, strong winds and continuous rainfall in Yunnan affected sugarcane cutting and transportation, reducing the amount of sugarcane for crushing. The estimated single - month sugar production in Yunnan in March is 56 - 58 tons, less than last year's 60.85 tons [3]. - **Brazil Sugar Production and Export**: In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% to 2.9 billion tons from 3.38 billion tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production in 2026/27 is expected to drop from 4.35 billion tons to 4.03 billion tons as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane for ethanol production due to high energy prices [3]. - **India Sugar Production**: In the 2025 - 26 crushing season, the sugar - cane crushing in Maharashtra, India, is nearing the end. As of March 24, 2026, 183 out of 210 sugar mills have finished crushing. The sugar output in the state has reached 9.8838 million tons, with a current average sugar - extraction rate of 9.48% [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with general spot trading and stable basis. The release of cotton import quotas in 2026 is conducive to the convergence of internal and external price differences. The domestic peak season shows good performance, with increasing开机 and good digestion of cotton yarn finished - product inventory. The short - term main negative factor is the quota release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season and a decline in the sugar - making ratio are expected to reduce sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. The production and sales progress in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot price is stable. In the northwest, the procurement enthusiasm of merchants increases, while in Shandong, the trading volume is small. The cold - storage inventory decreases year - on - year, and the spot price is strongly supported. The trading logic focuses on the demand side, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber futures price fluctuated. The supply of natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased. The tire operating rate increased, and the inventory situation is different for different types of rubber. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Middle East situation and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures are in low - level fluctuations. The domestic pulp port inventory is still high, but the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has certain support, and the downstream demand is general. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Timber - The futures price is strong. The spot price in Taicang decreased. The external quotation increased, and the future arrival volume may be low. The downstream is gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume increased. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a moderately strong trend due to high international oil prices and the downward adjustment of sugar production expectations by major producing countries [3] - The domestic sugar market is currently in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, putting some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low current sugar prices and the possible tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to gradually rise after bottoming out. In the short term, due to the high prices of crude - oil - related products and the sharp rise in international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly on the strong side [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly on the strong side in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar futures are also expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [4] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Options: Sell put options in the short term [4] 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Downward Adjustment of Production Expectations - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the supply surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast. Most global institutions have recently lowered their sugar production expectations for the 2026/27 season [3][8] - Czarnikow expects the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production to be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. It also points out that if the El Niño weather is strong, Brazil's sugar harvest may face difficulties [8] - Datagro expects a supply deficit of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season and a further reduction in supply in the 2026/27 season, with the deficit expanding to 2.68 million tons [8] - StoneX has significantly reduced the estimated global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season from 2.9 million tons to about 870,000 tons, a decrease of 70%. It also predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will decrease to about 40 million tons, a decrease of about 700,000 tons from the previous forecast [8] 3.2.2 Brazil - **End of the Pressing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons; the sugar production was 5,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2,000 tons [9] - **Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 13.286 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production increased by 341,000 tons year - on - year. The increase in sugar production this season may be only 300,000 - 400,000 tons, lower than the market's previous expectation of 1 million tons [13] - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the current futures price of raw sugar. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the new pressing season starting in April in Brazil will be relatively low. The sugar - making ratio in this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 800,000 - 900,000 tons [16] - **Inventory and Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar exports decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons from the previous half - month report, and a year - on - year increase of 462,000 tons [21] 3.2.3 Thailand - The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons. As of March 11, the cumulative sugar production was 9.7927 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,500 tons [24] 3.2.4 India - The ISMA estimates that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons, and the net sugar production after deducting ethanol production will be 29.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The AISTA estimates that the sugar production may be 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% decrease from the previous estimate [25] - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons. However, the recent increase has been very limited, and the final output may be lower than expected [27] 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic Sugar Production - **Guangxi**: As of February 28, 2025/26 season, 2 sugar mills have completed crushing, a year - on - year decrease of 35. The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 46.0358 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 367,600 tons; the sugar production was 5.6513 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 515,800 tons [32] - **Yunnan**: As of February 28, 2026, 52 sugar mills were in operation (the same as the previous year). The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 12.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0335 million tons; the sugar production was 1.4934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 93,100 tons [32] 3.3.2 Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory - **Guangxi**: As of February 28, 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.9923 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 891,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 35.25%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 3.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 375,200 tons [35] - **Yunnan**: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative sugar sales were 697,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 46.71%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.89 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 795,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118,000 tons [35] 3.3.3 Sugar Imports - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 188,500 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.9188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 562,200 tons [40] - In December 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons. In 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 1.1888 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1879 million tons [40] 3.3.4 Import Profits - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 5,160 yuan, with a profit of 450 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 5,050 yuan, with a profit of over 550 yuan. Recently, the cost of imported sugar has increased, and the import profit has decreased [44]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate within a range overnight. The Iran situation may drive up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and sugar mills may adjust the sugar - making ratio. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 crushing season may decline, and the raw sugar will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. In the medium term, the expected reduction in Brazil's output may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [3]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards overnight. The escalation of the Middle East situation has brought some adjustment and risk - aversion pressure to the market after digesting the previous bullish factors, but the callback range is expected to be relatively limited. In the long - term, cotton prices may still have room to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand. In the domestic market, consumption has increased, and the carry - over inventory from last year is at a low level, so the supply this year is expected to be tight. Policy - regulated planting area may support cotton prices in the long - term [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the prices decreased compared with the previous two days, with the decline rates of - 0.33%, - 0.50%, and - 0.09% respectively. The 11 - number sugar futures contracts (11 - number sugar 2610, 2607, 2605) also declined, with the decline rates of - 1.46%, - 1.70%, and - 1.46% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Cotton Futures**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards overnight [3]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming decreased compared with the previous day. The basis of Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 also changed [2]. - **Sugar Import Price**: The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, both within and outside the quota, decreased compared with the previous day. The differences between the futures price and the Thai sugar price also changed [2]. Inventory and Position - **Sugar Inventory and Position**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts and effective forecasts changed. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar increased, and the long - to - short ratio rose from 0.43 to 0.44 [2]. Industry Information - **Sugar Industry**: Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of March decreased by 8% compared with the average daily export volume in March last year. As of March 10, in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, the number of sugar mills that had completed crushing decreased by 51 year - on - year, and the concentrated crushing is expected to be postponed to late March to early April. The ongoing Middle East conflict may lead Brazilian sugar mills to shift more production to ethanol in the next crushing season, reducing sugar production [3]. - **Cotton Industry**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has affected the cotton market, but in the long - term, the cotton market is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand and policy - regulated planting area [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the short - term, sell put options [3][4]. - The increase in sugar production in India and Thailand this season is likely to be less than the previous market expectations. The global sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been lowered, and most global institutions are recently lowering the global sugar production forecast for the 2026/27 season, which supports international sugar prices. However, considering the start of the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season in April and May, there will be greater supply pressure in the market, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - In the domestic market, the domestic sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar production this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the current low sugar prices and the possible further tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to be intertwined with long and short factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. But considering the recent sharp increase in crude oil prices, the domestic sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Sell put options in the short - term [4]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Lowered Production Expectations** - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [8]. - Czarnikow predicts that the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season will be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production will be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. The production in India is expected to decrease from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons [8]. - Green Pool predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, and the surplus will drop to 156,000 tons, mainly due to the decline in sugar production [8]. - Datagro predicts that there will be a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season, and the supply gap will further widen to 2.68 million tons in the 2026/27 season [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar - Crushing Season** - **End of the Crushing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, an increase of 370,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 154.39%. The sugar production was 5,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 36.31% [9]. - **Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 601.644 million tons, a decrease of 13.286 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.24 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The increase in sugar production this season may only be 300,000 - 400,000 tons, less than the previously expected increase of 1 million tons [12]. - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline price ratio in the São Paulo region is about 0.724. The ethanol - to - sugar price is significantly higher than the current spot raw - sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio in the new sugar - crushing season starting in April in Brazil is likely to be low. The sugar - making ratio this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 900,000 tons [17]. - **Inventory and Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The average daily export volume was 123,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 32.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons compared to the previous half - month report, and an increase of 462,000 tons compared to the same period last year, which is slightly lower than the same period in recent years [22]. - **Thailand's New Sugar - Crushing Season** - The 2025/26 sugar - crushing season's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons). As of December 2025, the cumulative sugar export was 5.5491 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The export volume has decreased significantly in recent months and has been at a low level compared to the same period in previous years since October. As of February 15, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 6.57%. The sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a decrease of 346,700 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 4.83%. Green Pool predicts that Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in the 2026/27 season [25]. - **India's Sugar - Crushing Season** - The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons. After deducting 3.1 million tons for ethanol production, the net sugar production will be 29.3 million tons, an increase of about 12% compared to the previous season [27]. - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India reached 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.65 million tons compared to the same period last year, with an increase of 12.06%. The net export volume in December was 57,200 tons, which is at the lowest level compared to the same period in recent years. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota in March 2026 is 2.25 million tons, the same as in February and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic Sugar Production** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons compared to the same period last year; the production of mixed sugar was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 788,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the mixed sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar production was 2.0871 million tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the same period last year [35]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Yunnan was 8.1447 million tons (compared to 6.7824 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar production was 984,100 tons (compared to 837,100 tons in the same period of the previous season), and the sugar - making rate was 12.08% (compared to 12.34% in the same period of the previous season). In January, the single - month sugar production was 591,800 tons (compared to 510,200 tons in the same period last year) [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 830,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a decrease of 10.94 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales were 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons compared to the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons compared to the same period last year [38]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sales of new sugar in Yunnan were 532,000 tons (compared to 452,200 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 54.06% (compared to 54.03% in the same period last year). In January, the single - month sugar sales were 250,600 tons (compared to 185,100 tons in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 452,100 tons (compared to 384,800 tons in the same period last year) [38]. - **Sugar Imports** - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar import was 4.9188 million tons, an increase of 562,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar import was 1.7635 million tons, an increase of 301,700 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - In December 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a decrease of 120,800 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a decrease of 1.1879 million tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 299,600 tons, a decrease of 339,500 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - **Import Profits** - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 4,850 yuan, with a profit of 650 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 4,750 yuan, with a profit of over 750 yuan. However, due to the fact that the 2026 sugar import license has not been issued, the sugar import volume is low [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract continues to fluctuate. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and sugar mills may adjust the sugar - making ratio, with a possible decline in the 26/27 sugar - making ratio, and short - term raw sugar will maintain a fluctuating trend. In the medium term, the expected production cut risk in Brazil may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, but with high domestic inventories and ample supply, the upward space is limited and it will mainly fluctuate [5]. - For cotton, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract shows signs of recovery. The escalation of the Middle East situation brings adjustment and risk - aversion pressure after the market digests previous bullish factors, but the回调 amplitude is expected to be limited. In the long - term, with the expectation of tight supply and demand, cotton prices may still have room to rise. In the domestic market, consumption increases and last year's carry - over inventory is low, so this year's supply is expected to be tight. Policy regulation on the planting area may support cotton prices in the long - term. It is advisable to consider buying on dips recently [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of sugar 2609, 2605, and 2603 were 5321, 5308, and 5275 respectively, with price drops of - 11, - 13, and - 15 and percentage drops of - 0.21%, - 0.24%, and - 0.28% respectively. For 11 - number sugar 2610, 2607, and 2605, the previous day's closing prices were 14.11, 13.76, and 14.11 respectively, with price drops of - 0.14, - 0.17, and - 0.14 and percentage drops of - 0.98%, - 1.22%, and - 0.98% respectively [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volumes**: The positions of sugar 2609, 2605, and 2603 were 152115, 446413, and 1749 respectively, and the trading volumes were 55537, 305235, and 123 respectively. For 11 - number sugar 2610, 2607, and 2605, the positions were 145715, 201926, and 145715 respectively, and the trading volumes were 28919, 58171, and 28919 respectively [2]. - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: The current values of SR2605 - SR2603, SR2609 - SR2603, and SR2605 - SR2609 were 33, - 46, and - 13 respectively, compared with previous values of 31, - 42, and - 11. For 11 - number sugar, the current values of 2610 - 2607, 2607 - 2605, and 2610 - 2605 were 0.35, - 0.35, and 0.00 respectively, compared with previous values of 0.32, - 0.32, and 0.00 [2]. Sugar Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming were 5390 and 5215 respectively, with no change from the previous value in Liuzhou and an increase of 15 in Kunming [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis values in Liuzhou and Kunming for SR2509 were 115 and - 60 respectively, compared with previous values of 100 and - 90. For the new basis values, they were 82 and - 93 respectively, compared with previous values of 69 and - 121 [2]. - **Import Prices**: The current import prices of Brazilian sugar within the quota and outside the quota were 3331 and 4239 respectively, and for Thai sugar, they were 3847 and 4912 respectively. The differences between the futures price and Thai sugar were 1461 and 396 respectively, compared with previous values of 1443 and 369 [2]. Sugar Inventory and Positions - **Inventory**: The current warehouse receipt quantity of white sugar was 14585, the effective forecast was 2585, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17170, compared with previous values of 14461, 1689, and 16150 respectively [2]. - **Non - commercial Positions**: The current non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar were 183446 and 429569 respectively, with a long - to - short ratio of 0.43, compared with previous values of 171981, 425573, and 0.40 respectively [2]. Industry Information - **Guangxi Sugar Production**: Affected by factors such as increased sugarcane planting area, favorable weather with abundant rainfall, and improved field management, the sugarcane yield per unit and the amount of sugarcane crushed in Guangxi have recovered. The estimated range of sugarcane crushed in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi is adjusted to 5750 - 5850 million tons (an upward revision of 215 - 250 million tons), the sugar - making rate is slightly adjusted to 12.3% - 12.4% (a downward revision of 0.1%), and the total sugar production is adjusted to 710 - 722 million tons (an upward revision of 22 - 30 million tons) [3]. - **Yunnan Sugar Production**: The 2025/2026 sugar - making season in Yunnan started on October 30, 2025, one day later than the previous season. As of February 28, 2026, 52 sugar mills were in operation (the same as the previous year). The amount of sugarcane crushed was 1201.82 million tons (compared with 1098.47 million tons in the same period of the previous season), sugar production was 149.34 million tons (compared with 140.03 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 12.43% (compared with 12.75% in the same period of the previous season), and alcohol production was 1.95 million tons (compared with 1.46 million tons in the same period of the previous season). The cumulative sales of new sugar were 69.75 million tons (compared with 72.25 million tons in the same period of the previous year), the sales rate was 46.71% (compared with 51.60% in the same period of the previous year). The monthly sugar production was 50.93 million tons (a decrease of 5.39 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year), monthly sugar sales were 16.54 million tons (a decrease of 10.48 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year), and the industrial inventory was 79.58 million tons (an increase of 11.80 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year). Alcohol sales were 1.64 million tons (compared with 1.45 million tons in the same period of the previous year) [4]. - **US Sugar Subsidies**: The US Department of Agriculture will provide $150 million in one - time financial assistance to sugar beet and sugarcane growers to help them cope with market fluctuations and rising production and processing costs. This assistance is a supplement to the previously announced Farmer Bridge Assistance Program and the Specialty Crop Grower Assistance Program [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the lower production estimate in India provides short - term support, but India's domestic supply remains ample and sugar prices are low. Brazil's old - crop production is almost finished, and the sugar - making ratio is a key factor. The raw sugar price may return to around 14 cents per pound due to short - term positive factors [2][19]. - In the domestic market, the fundamental pressure is high. The overall sugar production is in line with expectations, sales in Guangxi are significantly behind, and processed sugar suppresses the market. The estimated sugar imports in January increased year - on - year. Although there is a high expectation of import quota tightening, there is no official confirmation. Zhengzhou sugar may run stronger under policy expectations, but its upside is limited [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract reached a maximum of 5338 yuan/ton. Despite being in the traditional off - season, positive expectations for import policies and rising overseas markets helped it break through the 5300 yuan/ton resistance [5]. - In February, the international sugar price first declined and then rebounded. The initial supply pressure pushed the price down to a minimum of 13.34 cents per pound, but the downward - adjusted production estimate in India provided short - term support, and the price rebounded to around 14 cents per pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil - As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 60164.4 million tons, a 2.16% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.74%, a 2.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 4024 million tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase [7]. - For the 2026/27 season, although the proportion of cane used for sugar production will decrease, the estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is still expected to reach 4050 million tons, remaining flat compared to the previous year. The market believes that only when the ethanol - to - sugar price stabilizes above 18 cents per pound will there be a significant impact on the decrease of the sugar - making ratio [7]. 3.2.2 India - As of February 15, 2026, India's sugar production was 2250.6 million tons, higher than 1976.5 million tons in the same period last year. The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season is about 3240 million tons, with about 310 million tons diverted to ethanol production, and the net sugar production is about 2930 million tons (a 12% increase compared to the previous year) [10]. - In Uttar Pradesh, due to variety replacement, the cane yield per unit is lower than the previous estimate, but the sugar production rate has increased year - on - year. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, the sugar production rate is acceptable, but the yield per unit is lower than expected, mainly affected by early cane flowering since January [10]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis 3.3.1 Regional Sales - As of January 31, 2026, Yunnan's sugar sales were relatively stable, with cumulative sugar sales of 53.20 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98 million tons, and a sales rate of 54.06%, basically the same as the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales increased significantly year - on - year, and alcohol sales also increased [11]. - In Guangxi, the pressure of both production and sales decline is prominent. The cane crushing volume and sugar production in this season decreased by 309.71 million tons and 78.80 million tons respectively year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 155.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83.03 million tons, and the sales rate was only 38.49%, a 10.94 - percentage - point year - on - year decline [11]. 3.3.2 Sugar Imports - The market expects that the sugar import volume in January 2026 will reach about 30 million tons, significantly higher than 6 million tons in the same period last year, and most of it is expected to be within the quota or carried over from December for customs clearance. The import data for January and February will be released together on March 18 [15]. - The market has strong expectations for import policies, with a high demand for quota tightening, but there is no official confirmation [16]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The report suggests mainly conducting short - term trading of Zhengzhou sugar [3][20].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: December 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Data - SRO9: Closing price 5,262, increase of 0.17%, volume 6,374, increase of 1,257, open interest 28,876, increase of 1,892 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,337, increase of 34, increase rate of 0.64%, volume 173,785, increase of 20,741, open interest 289,716, decrease of 27,587 [3] - SROE: Closing price 5,244, increase of 11, increase rate of 0.21%, volume 118,780, increase of 25,273, open interest 309,725, increase of 14,181 [3] Spot Price Data - Sugar spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,505 (no change), Kunming 5,345 (decrease of 25), Wuhan 5,810 (no change), Nanning 5,430 (no change), Yingkou 0 (no data), Rizhao 5,700 (no change), Xi'an 5,960 (decrease of 20) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 168, Kunming (data missing), Wuhan 473, Nanning 93, Rizhao 363, Xi'an 623 [3] Inter - month Spread Data - SR05 - SR01: Spread - 23, change - 33; SR09 - SR05: Spread 18, change - 2; SR09 - SR01: Spread - 75, change - 25 [3] Import Profit Data - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium (0.19), freight 37.75, in - quota price 4,049, out - of - quota price 5,144, spread with Liuzhou 361, spread with Rizhao 556.00, spread with the market 193 [3] - Thai imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,082, out - of - quota price 5,192, spread with Liuzhou 313, spread with Rizhao 508.00, spread with the market 145 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - As of December 8, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 11 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, 112,500 tons less than the same period last year. 16 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 6 more than the same period last year, with a planned daily crushing capacity of 59,900 tons, 23,500 tons more than the same period last year [5] - In November 2025, the actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar was 114,500 tons, and the forecasted arrival was 363,500 tons [6] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest stage, the sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil is 39.179 million tons, 800,000 tons more than the same period last year. International sugar prices show signs of bottom - building and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [8] - Domestically, sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrups and premixes and high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are relatively high, supporting the futures price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, international sugar prices are showing signs of bottom - building, and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Domestically, although there are sales pressure, considering the high production cost and low futures price, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options at low prices [10] Group 4: Related Diagrams - Diagrams include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar basis for different months, and inter - month spreads for different contracts [11][14][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to strengthened import control on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices rebounded recently, but the external market remained weak. Since August this year, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded last year due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane for sugar production, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With an expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 new crushing season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to wait for the weakening of the rebound strength and then look for opportunities to short [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Syrup and Premix Import Situation - The number of enterprises whose imports of Thai syrups and premixes were suspended by the customs increased from 35 to 44, and the effective ones were left with 16. The scope of suspended imports expanded from tariff number 170290 to 2106906. In September 2025, the total import volume of syrups and white sugar premixes (including tariff numbers 170290 and 2106906) was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the total import volume was 152.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62.96 tons. Stricter supervision on tariff number 2106906 is expected to further reduce future imports and boost Zhengzhou sugar prices [5]. Import Cost and Profit - Based on the March contract price of raw sugar, on October 30, the estimated out - of - quota import cost from Brazil was 5025 yuan/ton, and the in - quota import cost was 4049 yuan/ton. For the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar, the in - quota import profit was 1423 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import profit was 447 yuan/ton. For the spot, the current import - processed sugar price was about 6050 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota spot import profit reached 905 yuan/ton, a five - year high, indicating great import pressure next year. With an expected increase in domestic production in the new crushing season, the supply pressure will still increase [6]. Brazilian Sugar Production - Datagro predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season would reach 4142 tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous season. For the 2026/27 crushing season, the predicted sugar production was 4230 tons, an increase of 88 tons from the current season. In the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3403.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The sugar production was 248.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. As of the first half of October in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 3601.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [12][13]. Northern Hemisphere Sugar Production Forecast - The ISMA estimated that India's total sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would increase by 18% to about 3490 tons. The OSCB estimated that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 1005 tons, basically the same as the previous season. With an expected increase in production in major northern - hemisphere sugar - producing countries, the upward space for raw sugar is limited [14].

Group 1 - Brazil's sugar production has reached the same level as last year, with a total sugar production of 33.52 million tons, an increase of 0.84% year-on-year [2] - The sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-south region was 40.858 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, while the sugar production ratio increased to 51.17%, up 3.44% from last year [2] - Ethanol production from sugarcane has decreased, with a total of 2.213 billion liters produced, down 1.5% year-on-year, while corn ethanol production is expected to rise significantly in the coming years [3] Group 2 - Brazil's sugar exports in September were 3.2448 million tons, with an increase in the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at ports to 3.7272 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous week [4] - Domestic sugar imports are expected to decrease from October, with September imports reaching around 800,000 tons, the highest this year, but a decline is anticipated in the following months [5] - Current domestic sugar prices are stable, with mainstream quotes ranging from 5,840 to 6,000 yuan per ton, influenced by the arrival prices of sugar from Guangxi [5]