Economic Growth and Consumption - The core viewpoint is that consumption will play a more significant role in driving economic growth this year, with retail sales expected to exceed a 5% growth rate, compared to 3.5% last year [2][5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [4][5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [5] Foreign Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating better-than-expected foreign trade performance [10] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased significantly by 9.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% due to tariff increases [10] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" has contributed to the positive foreign trade data, as companies rushed to export before anticipated tariff hikes [9][10] Service Consumption and Innovation - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of the post-95 and post-00 generations, is driving demand for emotional value and personalized consumption [6] - Service consumption can be categorized into survival, development, and experiential services, with a focus on promoting experiential services through innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Increasing public service investment and improving income distribution are essential for enhancing overall consumption [8] Policy Recommendations - To address weak price levels and stimulate consumption, targeted policy measures should include improving income distribution and increasing public consumption [8] - The government could consider expanding subsidies from durable goods to service consumption and providing direct consumption subsidies to low-income groups [5][8]

Economic Data Overview - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1][2] - For the first five months, China's total import and export value of goods was 17.94 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [1][5] Consumer Spending Insights - The growth in consumer spending in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and emerging consumption trends like "self-indulgent consumption" [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [2][3] - The retail sales growth is expected to surpass 5% this year, compared to a 3.5% growth in the previous year, as consumption plays a more prominent role in economic growth [2][3] Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade performance in the first five months was better than expected, influenced by "export rushes" and a notable increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN, despite a decline in exports to the US due to tariffs [1][5][6] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 2.9% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% [5] Policy Recommendations - Future consumption policies could expand from durable goods to service consumption and provide direct subsidies to low-income groups [2][3] - To enhance service consumption, there is a need for innovative and diversified consumption scenarios, integrating new business models and products [3] Inflation and Economic Balance - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in the first five months, indicating a need for policies to promote economic balance and reasonable price recovery [4][5] - The weak price level is attributed to intense competition in investment-driven sectors, income distribution disparities, and underutilized public consumption [4][5] Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold prices is characterized by short-term volatility and long-term upward trends, influenced by interest rates, the dollar's performance, and geopolitical risks [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 30% this year, supported by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [8]