Economic Growth and Consumption - The core viewpoint is that consumption will play a more significant role in driving economic growth this year, with retail sales expected to exceed a 5% growth rate, compared to 3.5% last year [2][5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [4][5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [5] Foreign Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating better-than-expected foreign trade performance [10] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased significantly by 9.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% due to tariff increases [10] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" has contributed to the positive foreign trade data, as companies rushed to export before anticipated tariff hikes [9][10] Service Consumption and Innovation - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of the post-95 and post-00 generations, is driving demand for emotional value and personalized consumption [6] - Service consumption can be categorized into survival, development, and experiential services, with a focus on promoting experiential services through innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Increasing public service investment and improving income distribution are essential for enhancing overall consumption [8] Policy Recommendations - To address weak price levels and stimulate consumption, targeted policy measures should include improving income distribution and increasing public consumption [8] - The government could consider expanding subsidies from durable goods to service consumption and providing direct consumption subsidies to low-income groups [5][8]

21世纪经济报道记者柳宁馨 杭州报道 日前，我国5月经济数据已经公布，外贸、消费数据表现较好。5月，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元， 同比增长6.4%，达到2024年以来的最高增速。前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，同比增 长2.5%，延续增长态势。围绕5月经济数据和出口走势等话题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了中泰国际首 席经济学家李迅雷。 李迅雷认为，今年消费对经济增长的支撑作用将更加明显。从年度增速看，考虑到今年出口对GDP的贡 献会下降，而GDP的增长目标仍为5%，那么，社会消费品零售总额的增速应该超过5%，比去年全年 3.5%的增速有明显提高。未来，国补可以考虑从耐用消费品拓展到服务消费，也可以对中低收入群体 进行直接消费补贴。 在他看来，今年前5个月外贸好于预期，一方面今年经历了几次"抢出口"，另一方面，虽然美国加征关 税使得对美出口显著下降，但对于欧盟、东盟的增长显著上升。 《21世纪》：5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，达到2024年以来的最高增速。 你如何分析这一数据，如何看待今年消费对经济增长的拉动态势？ 李迅雷：今年5月消费的总体增长超预期，主要受 ...