文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖 摘要 追本溯源：出口强劲源于抢出口？30%或源于抢出口，70%或源于非美外需与份额变化。 我国"抢出口"有赖于美国"抢进口"，但后者或存在高估。 上半年美国进口增速大幅冲高至30%以上，貌 似显示"抢进口"现象；拆分结构，美国自欧盟药品进口、自瑞士黄金进口大幅冲高（金价上涨与医药行 业对关税的担忧），并非是所有商品在对等关税预期下均产生"抢进口"现象；若剔除特定商品扰动，美 国总进口增速上半年未出现大幅上升。 我国对非美市场出口高增，或也并非市场理解的"抢转口"。 东盟对美国出口明显强于我国对东盟出口， 商品出口表现也不匹配，我国对东盟出口或并非是纯粹的"转口"。更多或是供应链协同，东盟进口我国 生产资料，再加工成消费品后形成出口；我国对中东、非洲、欧盟出口走强主因相关经济体需求改善， 或也并非源于应对美国关税的"抢转口"。 "抢出口"或只能解释当前出口高增中的30%。 即使考虑与东盟供应链的协同出口效应，我国出口结构 中，仅对东盟、对中国香港存在"抢转口"现象，对其他目的地"抢出口"现象并不明显；结合7月对东盟 （2.6个百分点）、对中国香港（0.9个百分点）出 ...

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant downturn in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August to 5.3%[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year's 17.1%[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month downward trend[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[6] - The inventory of residential properties has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating ongoing destocking efforts[6] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand[6] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a recorded rate of 17.8% for individuals aged 18-24[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly fading, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year[56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains under pressure, and the main influencing factor is the continuous strength of the equity market. The outlook for the bond market depends on the liquidity situation and the performance of the equity market [15][20]. - In terms of fundamentals, the pressure on domestic and external demand cannot be underestimated. The low fundamental data implies a low return on the real economy, and bond - type assets also have difficulty providing higher comprehensive returns, so the sensitivity of bonds to fundamentals has decreased [19]. - Regarding policies, fiscal policy continues to exert force, with the next - stage focus on strengthening the domestic cycle. Monetary policy is expected to implement existing policies, and there is an increased expectation that the central bank will restart buying treasury bonds [19][20]. - For the capital side, the central bank may start to conduct 14 - day reverse repurchase operations in mid - September, and attention should be paid to the cross - quarter capital trend [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Event Reviews - **Import and Export Data**: In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports declined, with a significant drop in exports to the United States, while exports to non - US regions remained strong. In the future, exports may face the impact of demand overdraft from "rush exports" and the cancellation of the small - parcel tariff exemption. However, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the import demand of non - US regions may be boosted [2][8]. - **Inflation Data**: In August 2025, "anti - involution" had a positive impact on the year - on - year and month - on - month readings of PPI. The supply - demand relationship of some energy and raw material industries improved, and prices in industries such as coal processing, ferrous metal processing, and glass manufacturing turned from falling to rising. It is expected that in September, the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will continue to rise from a low level, and the month - on - month rate is expected to turn positive [2][9]. 3.2 Capital Prices - From September 5th to September 11th, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds in the open market, resulting in a marginal tightening of the capital side. The capital price rose slightly, with DR007 rising from below 1.45% to around 1.48%. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to rise, which restricted the bullish sentiment in the bond market [11]. 3.3 Primary Market - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is nearing completion. During the statistical period, 74 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 632.5 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 45.2 billion yuan. As of September 11th, 1.1 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been issued in 2025, and the supply pressure is gradually decreasing [13]. 3.4 Secondary Market - During the statistical period, the bond market was continuously under pressure, and the yield curve of treasury bonds steepened and rose. The continuous strength of the equity market was the main influencing factor. Additionally, the adjustment of fund redemption fees also had a certain impact on the market [15]. 3.5 Market Outlook - First, pay attention to the capital situation. If the capital side tightens, be vigilant about the downward risk of the bond market. If the capital side is relatively loose, then further monitor the changes in the equity market. If the sentiment in the equity market cools down, the bond market may experience a phased improvement, but do not overestimate the downward space of interest rates. If the equity market remains strong, the bond market may continue to fluctuate negatively [20].

Report Overview - **Title**: Will the bond market price in the slowdown of "front-loading exports" later? —— An analysis of August's imports and exports [1][4] - **Date**: September 10, 2025 [5] - **Analysts**: Zenghui Zhao, Weijian Ma [3] Key Points Overall Import and Export Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports slowed down overall, lower than expected, while the trade surplus showed some resilience and remained at a relatively high level. In US dollar terms, the year-on-year growth rate of the total import and export value dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 3.1% compared with the previous month, reaching $541.3 billion in August. The trade surplus increased by $4.1 billion month-on-month to $102.3 billion. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of export and import values both dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 4.4% and 1.3% respectively, which were 1.5 and 2.0 percentage points lower than the Wind consensus expectations [4]. - On a month-on-month basis, exports basically met seasonal expectations, while imports were significantly weaker than the seasonal level. In August, the month-on-month growth rate of exports rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 0.1%, at the median level of the same period in previous years, while the month-on-month growth rate of imports dropped by 8 percentage points to -1.8% [4]. Export Analysis - In August, exports generally remained stable but slowed down significantly compared with June - July. This was partly due to the high base effect of the previous year, with a two-year compound year-on-year growth rate of 6.5%. On the other hand, "front-loading exports" to the US declined significantly, with the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the US continuing to fall, at -11.8% month-on-month and -33.1% year-on-year [6]. - Among key export products, mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products supported exports, while agricultural products declined. Products with high export growth rates were concentrated in high-end machinery and equipment such as ships, automobiles, liquid crystal panels, and medical devices, as well as some chemical materials such as fertilizers and rare earths. Products with low and falling export growth rates mainly included traditional export products to the US, such as labor-intensive products like toys, household appliances, and clothing and bags [6]. - In terms of export destinations, ASEAN, the EU, and Hong Kong, China had a strong driving effect on exports, while exports to the US and Latin America were significantly weaker than the seasonal average. In August, the driving rates of ASEAN, the EU, and Hong Kong, China on exports increased by 1.2, 0.2, and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month to 4.0%, 1.7%, and 1.5%. On a month-on-month basis, the month-on-month growth rates of exports to the US, Latin America, and ASEAN were -11.8%, -0.03%, and 4.6% respectively, with changes of -5.7, -7.9, and +10.8 percentage points compared with the previous month [6]. Import Analysis - In August, imports weakened, with the growth rates of major imported products generally declining. The year-on-year growth rates of high-tech products, mechanical and electrical products, and agricultural products dropped by 4, 2, and 8 percentage points to 3%, 1%, and -3% respectively. The imports of bulk commodities were generally negative year-on-year, with significant declines in the imports of grain, crude oil and refined oil, and copper ore, and the decline rates of coal and iron ore narrowing. Among key mechanical and electrical products, the year-on-year growth rates of imports of automobiles, liquid crystal panels, and medical devices declined, while integrated circuits with a growth rate of 8.4% were the main support, with the quantity and price increasing by 2% and 6% year-on-year respectively [6]. Outlook and Bond Market Analysis - Overall, exports showed seasonal stability but still had signs of slowing down, while imports weakened significantly. Looking forward, the slowdown of "front-loading exports" at the expense of price may be due to the pre - emptive demand in the early stage, and exports to Latin America also weakened. The sustainability of "re - export trade" remains to be observed. At the end of August, the US cancelled the tariff exemption policy for small - value goods, expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariff lists, and considering the possible implementation of chip and semiconductor tariffs in the future and its continuous promotion of the rare earth supply chain reconstruction plan, there is great uncertainty in future exports to the US [6]. - In the bond market, the current import and export data have limited impact, and the market is more pricing in the "see - saw" relationship between stocks and bonds and the expectations of the policy "combination punch". However, if the resilience of exports weakens further, it may have a new actual drag on the economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter, increasing the probability of non - linear changes in economic data. The bond market is likely to gradually return to pricing the expectations of economic fundamentals [6].

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 was strong at 5.3% YoY, driven by exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months show signs of weakness[3] - Retail sales growth fell to 3.7% in July, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies[3] - Real estate continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies dropping 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years[3][20] Inflation and Price Transmission - July's inflation was below market expectations, with PPI at -3.6% due to poor price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors[4][24] - Capacity utilization in midstream (74%) and downstream (74.7%) is significantly lower than upstream (76.7%), hindering price transmission[4][24] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with a service production index at 5.8%[5][32] - Service retail sales for January to July saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%, but certain service categories like tourism and leisure are experiencing double-digit growth[5][35] Export Performance - Exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, with only 30% attributed to "panic buying" and 70% due to improved external demand and market share[7][44] - The contribution of "panic buying" to July's exports was approximately 2 percentage points, primarily affecting trade with ASEAN and Hong Kong[7][44] Future Outlook - Emerging economies are increasing investment, which, combined with China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa, may boost exports to these regions[8][59] - Risks include potential short-term constraints from economic transformation and the effectiveness of policy implementation[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the driving forces behind China's export growth, highlighting that exports to emerging economies are primarily driven by the export of production materials, while exports to non-US developed economies are mainly focused on consumer goods [2][3][4]. Group 1: Export Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's overall exports showed a steady increase, with emerging economies being the core growth engine, contributing 4.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [9][134]. - Exports to non-US developed economies (EU, Japan, UK) provided moderate support, contributing 1.4 percentage points [9][134]. - The export of electronic devices, machinery, and certain consumer goods (toys, mobile phones, jewelry) performed well [9][134]. Group 2: Emerging Economies vs. Non-US Developed Economies - Exports to emerging economies increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 9.6%, with intermediate goods contributing 2.4 percentage points and capital goods 1.0 percentage points, while consumer goods detracted 3.7 percentage points from overall growth [21][28][135]. - For non-US developed economies, exports rose significantly by 5.5 percentage points to 6.7%, primarily driven by consumer goods, which contributed 2.7 percentage points [28][135]. Group 3: Understanding Export Growth Drivers - The article suggests that about 30% of the current export growth may be attributed to "export grabbing," while 70% is due to changes in external demand and market share [4][68][136]. - The increase in US imports, which surged over 30%, is seen as a potential overestimation of "import grabbing," as the structure of imports does not fully support this narrative [4][68][136]. - China's exports to non-US markets are not merely a result of "transshipment" but are more about supply chain collaboration, where ASEAN countries import production materials from China for further processing [4][46][62][136]. Group 4: Future Export Outlook - The potential for continued export growth remains, as US imports have not yet reached a balance point with demand, indicating room for further increases [76][81]. - Short-term impacts from tariffs may affect exports to ASEAN, potentially dragging down overall export growth by 2 percentage points [90][91]. - Long-term prospects are bolstered by rising investment demand in emerging economies and the ongoing urbanization process, suggesting resilience in exports to these markets [94][107][120].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's export growth is primarily driven by exports to emerging economies, particularly in production materials, while exports to non-US developed economies are mainly in consumer goods [2][3][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's overall export increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with emerging economies contributing 4.7 percentage points to this growth [9][134] - The export performance to emerging economies is particularly strong in intermediate goods, which increased by 2.4 percentage points, while consumer goods negatively impacted the overall growth by 3.7 percentage points [21][135] Group 2 - The article discusses that the strong export performance may be partially attributed to "export grabbing," with estimates suggesting that 30% of the growth could be due to this phenomenon, while 70% is driven by external demand and market share changes [4][68] - The US's import surge, which appears to reflect "import grabbing," is primarily driven by specific goods from the EU and Switzerland, rather than a general increase across all categories [35][40] - China's exports to non-US markets have increased significantly, but this is not solely due to "transshipment" as the data shows a mismatch in export performance between China and ASEAN countries [46][62] Group 3 - Future export growth may continue to exceed expectations, as the US's import demand has not yet reached a balance point, indicating potential for further increases [76][81] - Short-term impacts on exports to emerging economies may arise from tariff implementations, but medium-term prospects remain positive due to rising investment demand and urbanization in these regions [90][94] - The expansion of the middle class in emerging markets is driving consumption upgrades, presenting new opportunities for high-value exports from China [120][124]

Group 1: Export Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's overall export growth was steady, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%[3] - Emerging economies contributed 4.7 percentage points to the overall export growth, while non-US developed countries added 1.4 percentage points[15] - Exports to ASEAN and India were significant growth drivers, contributing 5.5 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points respectively[15] Group 2: Export Composition - Exports of intermediate goods drove the growth to emerging countries, contributing 2.4 percentage points, while capital goods added 1.0 percentage points[25] - Consumer goods negatively impacted the overall growth by 3.7 percentage points, with specific items like lithium batteries and machinery showing strong performance[25] - For non-US developed countries, consumer goods were the main growth factor, contributing 2.7 percentage points to the export increase[33] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Approximately 30% of the current export growth may be attributed to "export grabbing," while 70% is driven by external demand and market share changes[5] - The US's import surge of over 30% in the first half of 2025 may not reflect a true "import grabbing" scenario, as specific items like pharmaceuticals and gold were the main contributors[5] - China's exports to ASEAN are more about supply chain collaboration rather than pure transshipment, with significant intermediate goods exports[52] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for continued export growth remains, as US imports have not yet reached a demand balance point, indicating room for further increases[7] - Short-term impacts from tariffs may affect exports to emerging markets, but medium-term growth is still anticipated due to rising investment demand in these regions[8] - Long-term trends suggest that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could benefit emerging markets and boost China's exports of production materials[8]