二级分类（国别╳商品）：对新兴经济体出口中生产资料改善，消费品则有所回落。 上半年我国对新兴 经济体出口累计同比上升1.5pct至9.6%。其中，中间品拉动整体增速2.4个百分点，资本品拉动1.0个百分 点，而消费品则拖累整体增速3.7个百分点。其中，锂电池、矿物与金属、化学品、电气设备和机械设备 等出口表现较好。 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖 摘要 抽丝剥茧：谁在拉动出口？对新兴经济体出口生产资料、对非美发达经济体出口消费品 一级分类（国别+商品）：国别中对新兴经济体出口表现较好，商品中生产资料出口表现较好。 2上半年 我国出口整体稳中有增；国别结构上，对新兴经济体出口（东盟印度、非洲、中东）为核心增长引擎， 非美发达经济体出口（欧盟与英国）也提供适度支撑。具体商品中，电子设备与零部件、机械制造、部 分消费品（玩具、手机、珠宝首饰等）出口表现较好。 二级分类（国别╳商品）：对非美发达经济体改善主要集中于消费品。 上半年我国对非美发达经济体出 口同比较去年底大幅上升5.5pct至6.7%。其中，消费品是主要拉动因素，贡献了2.7个百分点；中间品和 资本品也分别拉动整体增速1.9和0.7个百分点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's export growth is primarily driven by exports to emerging economies, particularly in production materials, while exports to non-US developed economies are mainly in consumer goods [2][3][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's overall export increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with emerging economies contributing 4.7 percentage points to this growth [9][134] - The export performance to emerging economies is particularly strong in intermediate goods, which increased by 2.4 percentage points, while consumer goods negatively impacted the overall growth by 3.7 percentage points [21][135] Group 2 - The article discusses that the strong export performance may be partially attributed to "export grabbing," with estimates suggesting that 30% of the growth could be due to this phenomenon, while 70% is driven by external demand and market share changes [4][68] - The US's import surge, which appears to reflect "import grabbing," is primarily driven by specific goods from the EU and Switzerland, rather than a general increase across all categories [35][40] - China's exports to non-US markets have increased significantly, but this is not solely due to "transshipment" as the data shows a mismatch in export performance between China and ASEAN countries [46][62] Group 3 - Future export growth may continue to exceed expectations, as the US's import demand has not yet reached a balance point, indicating potential for further increases [76][81] - Short-term impacts on exports to emerging economies may arise from tariff implementations, but medium-term prospects remain positive due to rising investment demand and urbanization in these regions [90][94] - The expansion of the middle class in emerging markets is driving consumption upgrades, presenting new opportunities for high-value exports from China [120][124]

宏 观 研 究 "反脆弱"系列 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 08 月 17 日 出口会否持续"超预期"？ ——"反脆弱"系列专题之十三 ⚫ 抽丝剥茧：谁在拉动出口？对新兴国家出口生产资料、对非美发达国家出口消费品 一级分类（国别+商品）：国别中对新兴出口表现较好，商品中生产资料出口表现较好。2 上半年我国出口整体稳中有增；国别结构上，对新兴经济体出口（东盟印度、非洲、中东） 为核心增长引擎，非美发达国家出口（欧盟与英国）也提供适度支撑。具体商品中，电子 设备与零部件、机械制造、部分消费品（玩具、手机、珠宝首饰等）出口表现较好。 二级分类（国别╳商品）：对新兴国家出口改善主要集中于生产资料，消费品出口走弱。 上半年我国对新兴国家出口累计同比上升 1.5pct 至 9.6%。其中，中间品拉动整体增速 2.4 个百分点，资本品拉动 1.0 个百分点，而消费品则拖累整体增速 3.7 个百分点。其中，锂 电池、矿物与金属、化学品、电气设备和机械设备等出口表现较好。 二级分类（国别╳商品）：对非美发达国家改善主要集中于消费品。上半年我国对非美发 达国家出口同比较去年底大幅上升 5.5pc ...

Economic Overview - In July, China's economic data showed a slight contraction in both supply and demand, with GDP growth estimated at 4.8%, down from 5.4%[2] - Industrial value added grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease from 6.8% in the previous month, influenced by extreme weather conditions[2] - The service sector maintained strong growth, with a production index increase of 5.8%[2] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, significantly down from 6.4% and 4.8% in May and June respectively[2] - Dining revenue growth remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak consumer spending in the restaurant sector[5] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to show diminishing returns, with retail growth in related sectors declining for two consecutive months[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July was recorded at 1.6%, with real estate investment declining by 12.0%[21] - Infrastructure investment growth was only 3.2%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, with July's investment growth estimated at -5.07%[4] - Manufacturing investment saw a marginal decline of 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with equipment updates being the only positive contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales value dropping by 6.5%[39] - The average price of new homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, while second-hand home prices continued to fall, indicating unstable demand[39] - Real estate development investment totaled 53,580 billion yuan, with a monthly estimated decline of 17%[45] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, with local household unemployment increasing to 5.3%[58] - The demand for labor from external sources remained strong due to robust industrial production, but uncertainty in future employment needs led to higher local unemployment rates[64]

Group 1: Export Performance - July export growth was 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus expectation of 5.8%[5] - Exports to the US decreased by 21.7%, a decline that expanded by 5.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Exports to the EU increased by 9.2%, with exports to Germany rising significantly by 13.1%[6] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to ASEAN maintained resilience with a growth rate of 16.6%[6] - Exports to Latin America rebounded with a growth rate of 7.7%[6] - Exports to Canada accelerated with a growth rate of 6.7%[6] Group 3: Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive product exports saw a decline, with bag exports at -10.0% and clothing at -0.6%[7] - Mechanical and electrical products supported export growth, with a growth rate of 8.0%, contributing 4.8 percentage points to overall export growth[7] - High-tech product exports grew by 4.2%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to export growth[7] Group 4: Import Trends - July imports increased by 4.1%, a significant rise of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Energy product imports showed structural improvement, with copper ore imports up by 26.4%[8] - Agricultural product imports continued to recover, with a growth rate of 5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Group 5: Future Export Pressures - Export pressures are expected to increase due to potential impacts from new tariffs imposed by the US, ranging from 10% to 41%[10] - The "rush to export" effect may manifest more significantly in Q4, compounded by base pressure, leading to further downward pressure on export growth[10]

Export Data Insights - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June[7] - The trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.765 billion compared to the same month last year[7] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained strong, while exports to the US saw a significant decline of 21.67%[7] Import Data Insights - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, compared to 1.1% in June, with a month-on-month increase of 6.2%[7] - Major commodities like copper and its products showed strong import growth, benefiting from the renewable energy sector[6] - Traditional demand indicators like iron ore and steel continued to experience negative growth[6] Market Trends and Risks - The rebound in export growth is attributed to "export rush" ahead of tariff exemptions and fiscal expansion in Europe[7] - Future export growth may face challenges due to potential policy implementation delays and uncertainties in US-China trade relations[6] - The manufacturing PMIs for the US, Japan, and the Eurozone are below the growth threshold, indicating a cooling global economy[7]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade data for the first seven months of 2025 exceeded expectations, with total import and export value reaching 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Performance - Exports grew by 7.3%, while imports declined by 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. - In July, imports and exports increased by 6.7% and 8% respectively, with imports rising by 4.8% for two consecutive months [4]. - The "export grabbing" phenomenon is intensifying globally, with China's exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan increasing by 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively in July [6][8]. Group 2: Market Diversification - China's trade diversification efforts are yielding results, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and Central Asia, with respective increases of 9.4%, 3.9%, 17.2%, and 16.3% [8]. - The number of trading partners with a trade scale exceeding 50 billion yuan increased to 61, up by five from the previous year [9]. - Exports to ASEAN grew by 13.5%, while exports to India and Africa increased by 13.4% and 24.5% respectively [9]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries, leading to a halt in "transshipment" business from Vietnam due to increased scrutiny [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is causing many Chinese companies to reassess their international strategies and production layouts [10]. Group 4: Industry Trends - General trade imports and exports grew by 2.1%, accounting for 64% of total foreign trade, while processing trade increased by 6.3%, making up 17.9% [12]. - High-value-added products, such as electromechanical products, are maintaining rapid growth, indicating resilience in the face of challenges [12][13]. - The textile and apparel sector saw a cumulative export growth of 0.6%, with a notable increase in integrated circuits by 20.5% [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to decline in August, with potential downward pressure on exports due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [13]. - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast slightly, but ongoing uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical tensions pose risks to economic stability [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and import increased by 4.1%. The "rush to export" and price increase supported the export to exceed expectations, while the price increase was the main driver for the import growth [3]. - In the short term, the "rush to export" logic may be weakening, and the export in August may decline. In the medium term, the uncertainty of tariff policies may decrease, and the support from quantity and price to export may decline, with the pressure of export slowdown gradually emerging [3]. - For imports, the CRB increase in August is still at a high level, which is expected to support the import reading. Attention should be paid to the repair elasticity of domestic demand, import volume, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Export: The re - warming of entrepot trade in July under the uncertainty of tariff negotiations - **Overall situation**: In July, the export growth rate was +7.2%, rising for two consecutive months. The "rush to export" logic was strong due to the uncertainty of tariff negotiations, and the export price increase also contributed to the high export growth from June to July. However, the "rush to export" logic is weakening, and the export may decline in August [3][20]. - **By commodity type** - Labor - intensive consumer goods: The year - on - year export declined to - 3.1%. The reasons may be the pre - Christmas rush to export in June and the "price - for - volume" strategy [1][22]. - Intermediate goods: The export growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 18.6% for five types, driving the export growth by 2.1 percentage points. It is expected to remain the main support for exports [1][26]. - Electronic products: The drag on export increased. The combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.3%, and the contribution to export was - 18.1% [29]. - Automobiles: The driving effect on export remained high, with a year - on - year increase of 18.6% in export value, driving the export growth by 0.6 percentage points [29]. - **By country** - Developed economies: The year - on - year export growth rates to the US, EU, and Japan were - 21.7%, +9.3%, and +2.5% respectively. The EU's export weight continued to be higher than the same period, showing a substitution effect [2][34]. - ASEAN: The export share decreased, with a year - on - year increase of 16.6% in July, a slight slowdown of 0.4 pct [2][34]. - Latin America: The proportion rebounded, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in export in July ( - 2.1% in June), and the share rose to 8.3%, reaching a new high since August 2024. Entrepot trade heated up [2][34]. 3.2 Import: Price increase drives the further upward movement of imports - **Overall situation**: In July, the import amount increased by 4.1% year - on - year, rising further after turning positive in June. The price increase was the main driving force, and the CRB spot index had a good synchronicity with the import amount growth rate [2][38]. - **By commodity type** - Upstream bulk commodities: The import drag narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of 7.9% in the import amount of five types of upstream bulk commodities, which was 3.5 pct higher than that in June [39]. - Intermediate goods: The growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 9.5% in the import of four types, driving the import growth by 1.9% [39]. - Downstream consumer goods: The drag also narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of - 15.6% in the import of three types of consumer goods ( - 21.0% in June) [39].

Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In July 2025, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June, while imports rose by 4.1%, compared to 1.1% previously[2] - The trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.765 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - The rebound in export growth was primarily supported by the EU, ASEAN, and other regions, despite a decline in direct exports to the US[2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The July export growth exceeded expectations, rising 1.3 percentage points from June and surpassing the Wind consensus forecast of 5.79%[2] - The month-on-month export change was -1.0%, slightly below the four-year average of -0.4%[2] - Factors contributing to the export surge included "rush exports" ahead of the August 1 tariff exemptions and a 40% export tariff on transshipments[2] Group 3: Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU rose by 1.65 percentage points to 9.24% year-on-year in July, while exports to the US, ASEAN, and Japan saw declines[2] - The decline in exports to the US was significant, dropping 5.54 percentage points to -21.67%[2] - Other regions showed a notable increase in export growth, rising from 7.78% to 12.56% year-on-year[2] Group 4: Import Trends - July imports increased by 6.2% month-on-month, outperforming the four-year average of -1.24%[2] - Key commodities like copper and related products saw strong import growth, while traditional demand indicators like iron ore and steel remained in negative growth[2] - Integrated circuits maintained double-digit growth, likely influenced by easing US-China trade relations[2] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations[2] - The overall outlook suggests a possibility of export growth slowing down, but the decline may be gradual due to various supportive factors[2]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.4% and up from the previous month's growth of 5.9%[5] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where July 2024 exports were at their lowest level since 2001, with a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries accounted for 17% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 16%[12] Import Performance - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 1.0% decline and marking the highest level since July of the previous year[22] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by machinery and high-tech products, with integrated circuit imports growing by approximately 13%[22] - Despite a continued decline in crude oil imports, the total value of crude oil imports saw a reduced year-on-year decline due to quantity recovery[22] Trade Balance - China's trade surplus in July was recorded at $98.24 billion, lower than the expected $105 billion and down from $114.75 billion in the previous month[5] - The trade balance reflects the ongoing challenges in the external trade environment, particularly with the U.S. market, where exports saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 22%[12] Market Outlook - The report indicates potential pressures on future export growth due to the uncertain trade environment and the impact of new U.S. tariffs[9] - The global manufacturing PMI for July was at 49.3, indicating a slight decline and suggesting a slowdown in global manufacturing recovery[9]