1月7日，COMEX黄金高位震荡，重心小幅下移，报收4467.1美元/盎司，跌幅0.65%。国内SHFE金夜盘 继续窄幅震荡，报收1002.20元/克，跌幅0.31%。 周三，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，低于市场预期中值4.7万人ADP数据显示12月私人部门招聘 步伐温和，指向劳动力市场动能正在放缓。但随后公布的ISM服务业指数显示，美国12月ISM非制造业 PMI 54.4，预期52.3，前值52.6，以一年多来最快的速度扩张，又描绘出经济需求依旧强劲的画面，矛 盾的信号让市场陷入观望。美元指数小幅回升，一定程度上抑制金价走势。 地缘政治方面，美国白宫称开始全球兜售委内瑞拉石油，美能源部长称将"无限期"控制委售油。央行数 据显示，中国12 月末黄金储备报 7415 万盎司（约 2306.323 吨），环比增加 3 万盎司（约 0.93 吨）， 这也是央行连续第 14 个月增持黄金。地缘不确定及央行购金动作仍对金价存在支撑。考虑到昨晚市场 分歧加大，贵金属和有色板块开始出现降温，这也是近期部分品种再次出现过热现象后多头获利了结的 结果，继续关注本周五美国非农数据对盘面的指引。 资料来源：Wind、 ...

央行方面，全球央行购金趋势未改，黄金在国际储备体系中的地位持续提升。央行购金不仅为市场提供 结构性买盘，更从信心层面强化了黄金的货币属性。 另从美元方面来看，2025年第四季度，美元自100关口上方回落，一定程度上减轻了以美元计价的黄金 的压力。同时，白银、铂金等贵金属板块联动走强，市场资金流入明显，反映投资者对贵金属整体配置 意愿增强。 新华财经北京1月6日电 2025年第四季度，国际金价开盘价格3859.03美元，最高4550.52美元，最低 3819.10美元，收盘价格4318.27美元。整个季度波动731.42美元，上涨459.86美元，涨幅11.92%，季度K 线呈现有长上影线的大阳线形态，显示金价的多空博弈剧烈， 2025年全年上涨约64%，创下自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。整体来看，金价整体强势，但四季度内分 别于10月底和12月底两次创出单日近300美元的大幅调整，市场波动率显著上升，反映市场在历史高位 附近的多空博弈加剧。 综合来看，在4000美元的历史高位上方， 2026年一季度金价的多空博弈将更加剧烈，大幅调整或将成 为常态。 2025年四季度金价走势在美联储降息预期、地缘风险及央行购 ...

Core Insights - Gold is expected to be the best-performing asset class in 2025, driven by four key factors that will also influence its price movements in 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Price - The two main macro drivers for gold's success in 2025 are geopolitical tensions and a generally weak US dollar along with moderate interest rate declines [2] - Central banks continue to be strong and stable net buyers of gold, although their purchasing pace has slowed compared to the past two years [2] - A balanced contribution from four main factors—economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum—each accounting for approximately 10% of gold's performance [2] Group 2: Future Expectations and Economic Conditions - If the US economy shows a mild decline, it could lead to Federal Reserve rate cuts and further dollar weakness, potentially supporting gold prices by 5% to 15% [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, investment demand for gold could surge, with potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [3] - The risk premium associated with gold may decrease if US economic policies yield positive results, potentially leading to a price drop of 5% to 20% [3] Group 3: Central Bank Demand and Recycling Risks - Strong central bank demand is influenced by macro and policy decisions, with continued buying expected to support gold prices [4] - A decline in central bank demand below 600 to 700 tons could exert pressure on future gold prices [4] - In India, gold jewelry is being used as collateral for loans, and an economic downturn could lead to forced liquidations, increasing supply and suppressing gold prices [5]

附表： 2025年12月30日，实物黄金周大生黄金报价1363元/克，相比昨日下跌了42元/克。铂金价格今天报价 871元/克，相比昨日下跌了79元/克。 周大生 黄金价格 铂金价格 金条价格 单位 2025年12月30日 1363 871 - 元/克 2025年12月29日 1405 950 - 元/克 金投网提示：以上报价仅供参考，据此交易，风险自担。 附表： 周大生 黄金价格 铂金价格 金条价格 单位 | 2025年12月30日 | 1363 | 871 | - | 元/克 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月29日 | 1405 | 950 | - | 元/克 | 金投网提示：以上报价仅供参考，据此交易，风险自担。 基本面： 汇丰下调美联储明年降息预期，同时短期技术指标超买严重，结构上不利金价向上走强，而美元指数依 然处于低位震荡之中，且地缘局势不确定性推动避险情绪升温支撑金价多头，短期调整之后有望继续走 强，等待技术指标修正为主。 基本面： 汇丰下调美联储明年降息预期，同时短期技术指标超买严重，结构上不利金价向上走强，而美元指数依 然处于低位震荡之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking after a bullish trend, but the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchasing trends [1][5][6]. Price Movements - On December 29, gold opened at $4537.12 per ounce, peaked at $4548.58, and then fell to a low of $4303.73, closing at $4331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [3][5]. - The price volatility for the day was $244.85, indicating significant market fluctuations [3]. Market Influences - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the FHFA House Price Index and Chicago PMI, are expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes are anticipated to have limited positive impact on gold prices, with the market likely to remain in a consolidation phase [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish perspective on gold remains unchanged due to global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and inflation hedging demands [5][6]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key driver for gold price increases, with a target of $5000 per ounce by 2026 being considered achievable [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a potential for gold to test support levels around $4000-$3900, with a bullish outlook if it breaks above previous resistance levels [8][10]. - Daily charts show that gold is currently supported by key moving averages, suggesting opportunities for bullish positions [12]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $4315 or $4260 and resistance at $4380 or $4440 for gold, with similar levels provided for silver [13].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文/新浪财经上海站 十里 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：常福强 近日，网络流传一张朋友圈截图显示，中信建投宏观首席周君芝就铜价走势发表观点。 截图内容显示，周君芝表示："铜价已经新高了，追铜还有必要么？2026年铜的答案，已经非常明确， 就写在2025年的金价上面。理解了2025年金为何开创历史级别行情，就能理解2026年铜将会如何让世人 侧目。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is entering 2026 with a historical upward trend, supported by structural demand rather than speculative trading, despite low market participation [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 25, 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,479.42 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.11% with a daily high of $4,525.70 and a low of $4,448.32, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment [1]. - Major banks forecast gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions persist [1]. Group 2: Structural Demand - The core drivers for gold price increases in 2024-2025 are rooted in policy uncertainties, with the U.S. facing high fiscal spending, persistent inflation pressures, and declining real yields [2]. - Central banks are a crucial support for the structural gold market, maintaining over half of their reserves in gold, while countries like Japan hold significantly less, indicating substantial reallocation potential [3]. - The demand from central banks is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, with consistent purchasing power despite high prices [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price failed to break through $4,502, indicating strong resistance at this level, with key support levels at $4,467 and $4,454 [4]. - The market is expected to continue a volatile pattern, with potential for upward movement if resistance levels are breached [4].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is generally optimistic about gold prices in the coming year, with target ranges between $4,800 and $5,000 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - HSBC's recent commodity outlook report indicates that the upward momentum for gold is expected to continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5,000 [1] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal deficit is a significant factor driving gold demand, as investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness [1] Group 2: Central Bank Demand - HSBC anticipates that central bank gold purchasing will remain high, particularly due to sustained buying from emerging market central banks, which constitutes a key support for gold prices [1] - However, HSBC warns that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are fewer than market expectations, the upward trajectory of gold may face resistance [1]

格隆汇12月21日｜RHB Investment Bank Bhd周五在一份报告中称，投资者在美国关键经济数据之前布 局仓位之际，下周COMEX期金可能再度尝试突破每盎司4400美元的阻力位。如果出现突破，金价可能 会延续其看涨轨迹，走向下一个阻力位4500美元。如果抛售压力加大，价格可能会回落至20日简单移动 平均线。目前，我们维持积极的交易倾向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the rise in gold prices will slow down next year due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will support upward momentum, with gold prices expected to reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 next year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The rise in gold prices is expected to slow down as central banks and ETFs reduce their purchases [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include anticipated interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong retail demand from China [1] - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Silver Market - This year is expected to be a peak period for silver shortages, with silver price trends likely lagging behind gold next year [1] - Investment demand is anticipated to continue driving silver prices upward [1] Group 3: Other Precious Metals - Platinum prices are expected to be $1,775 per ounce next year [1] - Palladium prices are projected to be $1,325 per ounce next year [1]