——2026 年宏观经济展望 着力扩大内需，宏观政策延续稳增长取向 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ·· 作者 美国高关税对全球贸易和我国出口的冲击将在 2026 年进一步显现。 东方金诚 研究发展部 首席宏观分析师 王青 2026 年需要切实促进房地产市场止跌回稳，并以此提振消费和投资信 心，扭转物价水平偏低的局面。当前的关键是将偏高的实际房贷利率 降下来。 执行总监 冯琳 2026 年三大政策基调保持不变，着力扩大内需成为稳增长的主要发力 点，继续推动新旧动能转换。 时间 2025 年 12 月 30 日 更加积极的财政政策将体现为"一平三升"，预计目标财政赤字率将保 持不变，新增专项债规模将增加至 5.0 万亿，超长期特别国债发行规 模将增加到 1.8 万亿，政策性金融工具额度也有望增加；下半年也可 能进一步加发政府债券。 2026 年降息幅度有望达到 0.3 个百分点，数量型宽松政策工具丰富， 结构性货币政策将"加量降价"，聚焦五篇大文章，新增信贷、新增社 融都有望同比多增。不过，货币政策仍会坚持不搞"大水漫灌"，不会 实施大幅降息及大规模数量型宽松。 2026 年 GDP 实际同比增 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November, the highest since March 2024, driven primarily by a reversal in food prices from a decline to an increase [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2] - The increase in CPI was influenced by seasonal price rises in services and industrial consumer goods, with household appliances and clothing prices rising by 4.9% and 2.0% respectively [2][4] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, with the decline attributed to high comparison bases from the previous year [4][6] - Seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries, such as coal and gas, contributed to the month-on-month price rise in PPI [4] - New industries, including new materials and intelligent technology, are driving price increases in related sectors, with prices for external storage devices rising by 13.9% year-on-year [6] Group 3 - To stabilize price levels and promote reasonable price recovery, there is a need to continue expanding domestic demand and optimizing market competition [7] - The upcoming year-end and early-year period is seen as a crucial time for consumer spending, with plans for various promotional activities to enhance consumption [7] - Looking ahead to 2026, policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, particularly in service sectors such as dining, accommodation, and health services [7]

她认为，PPI分行业同比数据，从三个维度清晰展现了我国各项宏观政策持续发力显效，价格走势呈现 积极向好的变化态势。一是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。具体来看， 煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄3.8个、2.0 个和0.7个百分点，均已连续多个月收窄；新能源车整车制造价格降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。二是新 兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。三是消费潜力有效释放，带动有关行业价格同比回升向 好。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，当前，"以旧换新"政策发力，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行 势头较为明显，这是近期核心CPI同比涨幅扩大的主要原因。 冠通期货研究咨询部经理王静告诉期货日报记者，11月数据显示，物价温和回升势头仍需加力巩 固，"反内卷"政策的力度有待进一步提升。创元期货研究员刘钇含也表示，11月物价水平基本已经筑 底，但工业品价格走势偏弱，需要继续出台提振需求的相关政策，促进物价水平进一步企稳回升。 王青表示，未来一段时间物价水平偏低格局将延续，这为年底前后稳增长政策发力特别是央行适度降息 提供了充分空间，当前无需担心 ...

12月10日，国家统计局公布11月份物价数据。 数据显示，11月物价水平进一步企稳。CPI（居民消费价格指数）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，涨幅创2024年3月份以来新高，核心CPI同比涨幅连续3个 月保持在1%以上。PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）环比上涨0.1%，连续第二个月上涨，同比下降2.2%。 其中，食品价格同比由降转涨。鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨。新材料、具身智能等高技术制造业发展带动相关 行业价格上涨。 中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出，展望2026年，随着扩内需等政策措施发力显效，现代化产业体系加 快构建，叠加重点行业产能治理持续推进、市场竞争秩序优化，物价有望低位温和回升。 鲜菜价格"逆袭"，服务价格"遇冷" 11月，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点。 温彬表示，部分地区降雨降温，导致蔬菜供应量下降、运输难度与成本增加，价格环比上涨7.2%，远高于历史同期均值0.7%；市场供应充足情况下，猪 肉、鸡蛋、鲜果和水产品价格承压。 猪肉价格何时止跌？ 温彬认为，政策调控和市场倒逼的双 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, with a cumulative CPI of 0.0% from January to November[1] - The year-on-year CPI growth rate expanded by 0.5 percentage points, primarily due to a significant increase in vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% year-on-year, contributing 0.49 percentage points to the CPI increase[5] - The core CPI remained at 1.2%, the highest level of the year, driven by a surge in international gold prices, which led to a 58.4% year-on-year increase in domestic gold jewelry prices[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, a slight increase in the decline compared to the previous month, with a cumulative PPI decline of 2.7% from January to November[1] - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month, influenced by seasonal demand increases and rising prices in the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors[8] - The overall industrial product market remains weak, with a "strong supply and weak demand" situation persisting, indicating limited upward price movement for industrial goods[11]

Report Information - Report Title: Huaxian Futures Macroeconomic Monthly Report - The Downward Trend of the Real Estate Sector Accelerates, Pay Attention to Policy Stimulus at the End of the Year [1] - Author: Shi Shuyu - Date: 2025-11-30 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to October 2025, the profits and revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, and the profit in October decreased year-on-year. Different industries showed varying degrees of profit changes [8]. - In October 2025, the CPI rose slightly, and is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased [8]. - In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached a new monthly high, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of various industries [10]. - In October 2025, the fiscal revenue increased year-on-year, while the fiscal expenditure decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in some expenditure items [10]. - In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline [10]. - From January to October 2025, the decline in fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) expanded, and the decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (previous value 3.2%); the operating revenue was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (previous value 2.4%). In October, the profit decreased by 5.5% year-on-year[8]. - **CPI**: In October 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, non - food prices increased by 0.9%, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.8%. From January to October, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year[8]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electricity consumption was 8624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%[10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative general fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the general fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. From January to October, the cumulative general fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the general fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.78%[10]. - **Real Estate Market**: In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline[10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened[13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - The report presents the quarterly year - on - year growth rates of GDP and its various components from 2023 to 2025, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, and services[16]. - It also shows the contribution rates of various industries to GDP and the pulling effects on GDP growth[21]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Growth**: The growth rate of industrial added value of industries above designated size showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, such as coal mining and non - metallic mineral products industries showing varying performances[32]. - **Industrial Output**: The report provides the production data of major industrial products from 2024 to 2025, such as crude oil, coal, and steel[34]. - **Industry Electricity Consumption**: The electricity consumption of different industries showed different growth trends. Some industries, such as the textile and clothing industry, had relatively high growth rates in electricity consumption[43]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline[46]. - **Industrial Enterprise Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8%. The inventory situation of different industries also varied[58]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Different CPI components showed different price changes, such as food prices decreasing and non - food prices increasing[64]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the national PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed compared with the previous month. The prices of production materials and living materials also showed different changes[71].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 99.466, while spot silver opened at $53.31/oz and is currently around $53.16/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 12,396 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 12,430 CNY/kg [1] - On November 26, the US dollar index fell by 0.24% to close at 99.569. Spot silver rose by 3.60% to $53.31/oz, driven by increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Spot gold also reached a one-week high, rising by 0.79% to $4,162.35/oz, while platinum and palladium prices increased by 2.18% and 2.59%, respectively [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,582.33 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On November 26, the direction of the deferred compensation payment for Ag (T+D) was from short to long [2] Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were recorded at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, marking the lowest level since April 12, 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that US economic activity has remained stable in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending declining further, except for high-end consumers. The employment market has shown slight weakness, while price levels continue to rise moderately [3] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 51.422, experienced a pullback to 51.264, and then saw a strong upward trend, reaching a daily high of 53.385 before closing at 53.33. This bullish pattern suggests continued demand for upward movement, with support levels at 37.8 and 38.8, and targets set at 53.3, 53.7, and 54-54.2 [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to October[1] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant rise in vegetable prices due to rainy weather and increased holiday demand, leading to a narrowing of the food price decline to -2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 2.5% increase in travel prices, reflecting a strong demand for services during the extended holiday[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI saw its first month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Key contributors to the PPI increase included improved supply-demand dynamics in industries like coal and cement, with coal mining PPI rising by 1.6%[5] - The rise in international prices for non-ferrous metals also supported the domestic PPI, with a 5.3% increase in the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in October showed mixed performance, with overall export growth benefiting from diversification despite a decline in exports to the US. The bond market had a short - term rally last week and a slight pullback this week, and if international financial market volatility expands next week, it will be relatively favorable for the domestic bond market [10][14][27] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market - This week, most of the major Treasury futures contracts showed a narrow sideways fluctuation in the first two trading days and a continuous decline in the last three days, with a slight weekly decline. The 30 - year Treasury fell 0.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.20%, the 5 - year fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year fell 0.07% [4] - As of November 7, the Treasury bond yield curve shifted slightly upward in parallel compared to October 31. The 2 - year yield rose 3 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 2 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 1 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2 BP to 2.16% [7] 3.2 Foreign Trade - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars. From January to October, exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [10] - In October, exports to ASEAN increased by 11%, to the EU by 0.9%, and decreased by 25.2% to the US. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 3.45% [12][14] 3.3 Real Estate - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In the second quarter, it was 265,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In the third quarter, it was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In October, it was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. From November 1 - 6, it was 170,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. The national commercial housing sales are still in the bottom - grinding process [16] 3.4 Prices - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rose rapidly in October, which will promote the month - on - month increase of CPI in October and reduce the year - on - year decline. At the beginning of November, it showed a narrow sideways fluctuation [18] - In October, the average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. At the beginning of November, industrial product prices remained at a low level [21] 3.5 Capital - This week, short - term capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.318%, and that of DR007 was 1.424%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.637%, a slight decline from last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The reasons for the decline in China's exports in October include the slowdown of export growth in South Korea and Vietnam in October and the relatively high base in October last year. The central bank's plan to resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations drove the bond market rally last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% may be the upper limit in the future [27] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [28]

Core Insights - The third set of Renminbi (RMB) is a significant artifact in China's monetary history, reflecting the economic changes of the mid-20th century and serving as a medium of exchange and a historical record [1][2] Historical Background - The third set of RMB was issued on April 20, 1962, and remained in circulation for 38 years until July 1, 2000, making it the longest-circulating RMB set [2] - It was introduced during a period of economic adjustment, aimed at stabilizing the financial order and supporting economic development [2] - The design and issuance of the third set reflect the spirit of self-reliance and hard work, showcasing China's industrial achievements and collective ideals [2] Composition of the Collection - The "Third Set of RMB Collection Album" features a comprehensive collection of major banknotes and coins, emphasizing a complete collection system of "paper money + coins" [5] Paper Money Section - The 10 yuan note symbolizes political ideals with its imagery of the People's Congress, while the 5 yuan note represents industrial enthusiasm through the depiction of steelworkers [5][8] - The 2 yuan note features a lathe worker, reflecting mechanical industry development, and the 1 yuan note highlights agricultural mechanization with the image of a female tractor driver [8] - The 5角 note showcases textile workers, emphasizing the importance of light industry [8] - The 2角 note symbolizes infrastructure achievements with the Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge, and the 1角 note is notable for its various rare editions [11] - The fractional notes (5分, 2分, 1分) are categorized into "long-number" and "no-number" types, with the former being particularly valuable due to limited circulation [11] Coin Section - The collection includes hard coins issued from the 1950s to the 1990s, made from aluminum-magnesium alloy, featuring simple designs with the national emblem [11] Collectible Value - The collection's value is driven by its historical significance, artistic value, and market scarcity [14] - Each banknote and coin serves as a historical artifact, encapsulating specific societal memories and achievements [14] - The artistic design merges political and aesthetic elements, showcasing significant industrial and agricultural imagery [14] - Market scarcity has led to high prices for well-preserved sets, with some rare items exceeding 500,000 yuan in value [17][18] Cultural Significance - The collection transcends mere collectibles, acting as a narrative of contemporary Chinese history [18][21] - It reflects the value orientations and aesthetic tastes of mid-20th century China, showcasing labor and national identity [21] - The collection serves as primary data for analyzing monetary circulation, price levels, and industrial structure during the planned economy era [21] - It has fostered a culture of collecting and appreciation for currency as a historical and artistic medium, shifting from curiosity-driven to research-oriented collecting [21]