证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 出口超预期、物价低徘徊 国债期货或延续震荡 2025年8月9日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约震荡小幅上涨，全周30年国债涨0.19%，10年国债涨0.18%，5年国债涨0.10%，2年国债涨 0.03%。 8月8日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与8月1日相比变化不大。2年期国债到期收益率从8月1日的1.43%下 行3个BP至8月8日的1.40% ；5年期国债到期收益率从8月1日的1.57%下行2个BP至8月8日的1.55% ；10年 期国债到期收益率从8月1日的1.71%下行2个BP至8月8日的1.69% ；30年期国债到期收益率从8月1日的 1.95%上行1个BP至8月8日的1.96% 。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 以美元计中国7月出口同比增长7.2%，进口同比增长4.1% 中国7月以美元计价出口金额同比增长7.2%，预估为增长5.8%，前值增长5.9%；以美元计价进口 ...

Policy Focus - The government will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems [1] - The government will normalize policy research and reserve measures [1] - The government aims to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1] - Policies will be adjusted based on actual needs, coordinating efforts between the current and next year [1] Economic Goals - The government prioritizes stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - The government seeks to achieve a reasonable recovery in price levels [1] - The government aims for overall stability in social employment and optimized economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic conditions in Northeast China, highlighting its low cost of living and the underlying factors contributing to this phenomenon, including low wages, high reliance on state-owned enterprises, and demographic challenges such as aging population and out-migration [4][15][39]. Group 1: Cost of Living - Northeast China is perceived as a "low-price paradise," where even a monthly salary of 3000 yuan allows for a comfortable lifestyle [4][5]. - The prices of food and services in Northeast cities like Harbin are significantly lower compared to southern cities, with examples showing meals costing as little as 9 yuan for a dish [10][11]. - The affordability extends to clothing and services, with winter clothing priced much lower than in other regions [13][14]. Group 2: Wage Levels - Wage levels in Northeast China are notably low, with personal income tax contributions in Harbin being significantly lower than in cities like Zhuhai, despite Harbin's larger population [18]. - In 2023, the average wages for urban non-private units in the three northeastern provinces ranked among the lowest in the country [19]. - The average disposable income in 2024 for residents in Jilin and Heilongjiang is below the national median, indicating economic struggles [20]. Group 3: Economic Structure - The high proportion of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China contributes to the low wage levels, with state-owned sectors dominating the job market [21][24]. - The reliance on large state-owned enterprises has created a social structure that favors employment in these entities, limiting the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises [25][26]. - The economic performance of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China is poor, with many reporting low profit margins and significant losses [31][37]. Group 4: Demographic Challenges - Northeast China faces significant demographic issues, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, which are exacerbating economic challenges [39][40]. - The region has experienced substantial population outflow, with over 1.1 million people leaving from 2015 to 2024, further reducing the consumer base [41]. - The phenomenon of "bird migration" where many residents spend winters in warmer regions like Hainan is also noted, impacting local consumption patterns [42][43]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there are signs of potential economic recovery, particularly in the realm of exports, which have been increasing for four consecutive years [47]. - The existing industrial and research capabilities in Northeast China may provide a foundation for future growth if leveraged effectively [47].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2025 increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month streak of negative growth, while the CPI for the first half of the year decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - Significant price fluctuations were observed in June, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 39.2% and 15.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] - The decline in food prices during the first half of the year was a major factor in the negative CPI growth, with beef prices finally increasing by 2.7% in June after 28 months of continuous decline [1] Group 2 - The overall low CPI reflects insufficient domestic demand, which is a symptom of the economic transition challenges faced by China [3] - The government has set a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004, aiming to improve supply-demand relationships through various policies and reforms [2] - Analysts predict a gradual stabilization and recovery of the CPI, with expected year-on-year increases of 0.2% and 0.6% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% for the first half of the year[1][2] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and a rise in domestic energy prices due to international crude oil price increases[2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a weak overall price level[3][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 3.3% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year[1][2][8] - The PPI decline was primarily influenced by weak domestic demand and oversupply, leading to accelerated price declines in coal, steel, and cement[2][9] - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, marking four consecutive months of such a decline[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI may return to negative territory in July, likely around -0.2%, due to external economic pressures and high base effects from the previous year[7][12] - The PPI is expected to continue its month-on-month decline in July, but the rate of decline may slightly narrow, with a year-on-year decline projected to remain around -3.6%[12]

Economic Data Overview - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1][2] - For the first five months, China's total import and export value of goods was 17.94 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [1][5] Consumer Spending Insights - The growth in consumer spending in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and emerging consumption trends like "self-indulgent consumption" [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [2][3] - The retail sales growth is expected to surpass 5% this year, compared to a 3.5% growth in the previous year, as consumption plays a more prominent role in economic growth [2][3] Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade performance in the first five months was better than expected, influenced by "export rushes" and a notable increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN, despite a decline in exports to the US due to tariffs [1][5][6] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 2.9% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% [5] Policy Recommendations - Future consumption policies could expand from durable goods to service consumption and provide direct subsidies to low-income groups [2][3] - To enhance service consumption, there is a need for innovative and diversified consumption scenarios, integrating new business models and products [3] Inflation and Economic Balance - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in the first five months, indicating a need for policies to promote economic balance and reasonable price recovery [4][5] - The weak price level is attributed to intense competition in investment-driven sectors, income distribution disparities, and underutilized public consumption [4][5] Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold prices is characterized by short-term volatility and long-term upward trends, influenced by interest rates, the dollar's performance, and geopolitical risks [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 30% this year, supported by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the CPI in May remains at -0.1%, reflecting a trend of negative growth in consumer prices for four out of the first five months of the year, with the market closely monitoring price trends as a key macroeconomic variable [2][3] - The PPI in May shows a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous month's decline of 2.7%, indicating a worsening trend in producer prices [2] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to falling energy and food prices, with vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year and energy prices decreasing by 6.1%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [2] Group 2 - The current price level is described as stable yet weak, with ongoing negative growth potentially having adverse effects on macroeconomic growth, leading to delayed consumer spending on major purchases and increased corporate inventory [4] - The downward trend in prices is causing actual interest rates to rise, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1%, resulting in a real interest rate of 1.05%, which may discourage private sector leverage [5] - The central bank's recent interest rate cuts aim to support the real economy and encourage investment and consumption, particularly in the real estate sector, but persistent price declines may weaken the effectiveness of these policies [6] Group 3 - To enhance price levels, it is essential to promote consumption, and addressing policy bottlenecks that affect consumer spending is crucial [7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, resulting in a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to May[1][4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained below 1.0%, indicating a weak domestic price level primarily due to insufficient consumer demand[2][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[5][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May, with the decline accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weakened pricing momentum and increased drag from base effects[2][9] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by 0.4%, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous two months[2][9] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and cement experienced price declines due to weak domestic demand and ample supply, contributing to the overall PPI decrease[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to hover around 0% in June, while the PPI year-on-year decline is projected to remain at approximately -3.3%[3][12] - The government aims to implement macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery in the second half of the year, which may include fiscal measures to boost consumption and further interest rate cuts by the central bank[3][12] - The impact of external economic fluctuations on consumer confidence and potential downward pressure from "export to domestic" shifts will be critical to monitor[7][12]

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate shows a trend of "stability with improvement," with Q1 GDP reaching 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [1] - The overall price level remains stable, with the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in Q1 [1] Changes in Banking and Finance - Deposit interest rates are decreasing, marking the end of the "easy earnings" era for savers, with the 3-year deposit rate dropping from 3.15% to 1.9% [6] - The reduction in interest rates aims to encourage consumers to invest and spend, while also lowering financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [6] - It is recommended to invest in government bonds, bond funds, and low-risk bank wealth management products as deposit rates are expected to continue declining [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The government plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units per year, to meet the needs of low-income groups [8] - The pricing of affordable housing will be significantly lower than that of surrounding commercial housing, which is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market and exert downward pressure on housing prices [8] Social Changes - Marriage registration processes will become simpler starting in 2025, potentially leading to a rebound in marriage rates as couples can register with just their ID cards and without needing to return to their household registration locations [10] - The expected increase in marriage registrations may help reverse the declining trend in marriage rates seen in recent years [10] Technological Advancements - The era of "AI democratization" has arrived, with AI technologies increasingly integrated into daily life, such as in delivery services, customer service, and manufacturing [12] - Businesses are encouraged to adapt to these changes by acquiring new skills to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving job market [12]

Economic Overview - The overall trend of China's economy remains positive, with recent financial data indicating sustained growth in monetary aggregates and support for the real economy [3][4]. - As of the end of April, the M2 (broad money) balance grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, influenced by low base effects from last year and effective counter-cyclical adjustments by the central bank [3]. Financial Indicators - In the first four months of the year, the social financing scale stock, broad money M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 2.7% year-on-year [3]. Industrial Performance - In the first quarter, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year-on-year decline of 3.3% to a growth of 0.8%, driven by the continued release of policy effects [4]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant profit support, contributing to the overall improvement in industrial economic quality and efficiency [4].