由于日本的债务规模在主要经济体中高居榜首，财政预算的四分之一都需用于偿还债务本息，债券收益 率攀升带来的冲击对日本而言尤为剧烈。 眼下距离2月8日的大选已时日无多，竞选期间政策掉头难度极大，高市早苗或许缺乏有效手段安抚市场 情绪。投资者正愈发担忧，日本的财政管控能力是否正在失控。 智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗承诺下调消费税税率，这一举措堪称政坛禁忌——即便是以"安 倍经济学"刺激政策闻名的导师、前首相安倍晋三，当年也不敢触碰这一红线。如今，受该承诺冲击的 日本债市剧烈震荡，高市早苗恐将难以平息市场波澜。 市场人士的此类观点，为日本的金融稳定风险敲响警钟。目前，日本的公共债务与国内生产总值(GDP) 之比已超过230%，在发达国家中位列第一。 日本超80%的公共债务依靠国内储蓄支撑。其中，日本央行持有市场上流通国债的半数份额，外国投资 者持有占比仅为6.6%，剩余部分则由本土金融机构和家庭部门持有。 诚然，当前日本的处境与当年英国金融市场因无资金支持的减税计划而陷入动荡的局面存在差异。彼时 英国央行正大幅激进加息，而日本央行至今仍将关键政策利率维持在0.75%的超低水平。此外，日本养 老基金的杠杆率相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.1% at 52,991.10 points, influenced by declines in brokerage and electronic stocks, amid uncertainties regarding trade relations between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Japanese stock market declined due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding trade relations related to Greenland, with investors closely monitoring developments [1][2]. - Long-term Japanese government bond yields surged to multi-year highs, raising concerns about potential fiscal deterioration due to upcoming elections [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Policies - A key focus of the election campaign will be the potential reduction of Japan's consumption tax, as both the ruling and opposition parties aim to alleviate the burden of rising living costs for voters [1][2]. - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's party is considering a plan to suspend sales tax on food and beverages for two years, which could significantly reduce government revenue and raise concerns about the sustainability of Japan's substantial debt [1][2]. Group 3: Bond Yield Changes - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 26 basis points to 4.205% [1][2]. - The 30-year bond yield increased by 25 basis points to 3.860%, reaching a historical high [1][2]. - The 20-year bond yield climbed by 15 basis points to 3.405% [1][2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to consider the impact of consumption tax reduction on yield and market trust in Japan's fiscal situation [1]