固定收益周报 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 2 月 24 日 核心观点： 城投债方面，坚持统筹发展和安全的原则下，城投违约的可能性很低， 城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置品种。有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清 的严监管下，融资平台改革转型加快推进，关注"实体类"融资平台改革转 型的机会。 本期（2 月 9 日至 2 月 15 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行， 整体变化幅度为-4 BP 至 0 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持 零发行，其余品种发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比减少，企业债净融资 额增加，其余品种净融资额减少，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，其余 品种净融资额为正。二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额环比微增，企业债、 中期票据成交金额增加，公司债、短期融资券、定向工具成交金额减少。收 益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数下行。信用利差方面，本期多数品种信用 利差收窄。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位，7 年期品种分位数 相对较高。绝对收益角度来看，相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信用债延续修复 行情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - During the period from February 2nd to February 8th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 4 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes increased, while the issuance amount of commercial paper decreased. The net financing amount of credit bonds increased month - on - month, the net financing amount of commercial paper decreased, the net financing amounts of other varieties increased, and the net financing amount of corporate bonds was negative [1][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline month - on - month. The trading volume of private placement notes increased, while the trading volumes of other varieties decreased. Most of the yields of credit bonds declined, and most of the credit spreads widened. In terms of quantiles, most of the spreads were at historical lows, and the quantiles of 7 - year varieties were relatively high [1][60]. - From an absolute return perspective, the relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. Although fluctuations and adjustments are inevitable under the influence of both positive and negative factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are still insufficient. In the long run, the yields are still on a downward path, and the idea of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. From a relative return perspective, the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, and the cost - effectiveness of most varieties for allocation is not high. The coupon strategy should be cautious in the current allocation thinking, and the trading thinking should be moderately optimistic. The key to bond selection is to keep an eye on the changing trend of interest - rate bonds and pay attention to the coupon value of individual bonds [1][60]. - The central and local governments continue to actively optimize real - estate policies, which have played a positive role in promoting the stabilization of the real - estate market. Although the real - estate market is still in the transition period between old and new models, it is moving towards stabilization. The subsequent policy rhythm and intensity are worth looking forward to. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk appetite can consider early layout, focusing on enterprises with outstanding new financing and sales recovery, and balancing risks and returns. The focus of allocation is still on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. They can also appropriately bet on the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of over - sold real - estate enterprises [2][63]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. Under the strict supervision of the clearance of local financing platforms, the reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating. Opportunities for the reform and transformation of "entity - type" financing platforms can be concerned. With a coupon - oriented approach, appropriate positive actions can be taken. The allocation strategy can give priority to short - to medium - term credit sinking, and the trading strategy can still choose to extend the duration of medium - to high - grade bonds [3][63]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From February 2nd to February 8th, a total of 440 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 356.856 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.70%. The net financing amount of credit bonds was 255.063 billion yuan, an increase of 95.222 billion yuan month - on - month [12]. - By variety, corporate bonds had zero issuance with a net financing amount of - 1.818 billion yuan; corporate bonds issued 190 with an issuance amount of 144.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 57.73%, and a net financing amount of 122.621 billion yuan; medium - term notes issued 126 with an issuance amount of 110.337 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 32.30%, and a net financing amount of 87.862 billion yuan; commercial paper issued 90 with an issuance amount of 81.706 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 31.91%, and a net financing amount of 35.325 billion yuan; private placement notes issued 34 with an issuance amount of 20.413 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 51.26%, and a net financing amount of 11.073 billion yuan [13]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased, with an overall change range of -1 BP to 4 BP. By tenor, the interest rate change range of 1 - year varieties was 0 BP to 3 BP, 3 - year varieties was -1 BP to 3 BP, 5 - year varieties was -1 BP to 4 BP, and 7 - year varieties was -1 BP to 4 BP. By rating, the interest rate change range of key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties was -1 BP to 1 BP, AA + - rated varieties was -1 BP to 2 BP, AA - rated varieties was 3 BP to 4 BP, and AA - - rated varieties was 3 BP to 4 BP [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From February 2nd to February 8th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 871.756 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%. The trading volumes of corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 15.904 billion yuan, 354.344 billion yuan, 312.069 billion yuan, 131.161 billion yuan, and 58.278 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline month - on - month, the trading volume of private placement notes increased, while the trading volumes of other varieties decreased [17]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, all varieties' credit spreads widened. For enterprise bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened, with the spreads of 1 - year AA - rated and AA - - rated, and 3 - year AA - - rated varieties narrowing. For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened, with the spreads of 3 - year AA - - rated, 5 - year AA - rated and AA - - rated varieties narrowing [20][29][37]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 2.69 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.32 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 1.60 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP [45]. - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread widened by 0.84 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.73 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 4.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged [49]. - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.83 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 0.70 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 1.34 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 3.21 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread narrowed by 2.01 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 1.01 BP [52]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period from February 2nd to February 8th [57]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - According to iFinD statistics, there were no defaults or extended - maturity of credit bonds issued by any issuer during the period from February 2nd to February 8th [58]. 3.4 Investment Views - The same as the core views mentioned above, including the analysis of credit bonds, real - estate bonds, and urban investment bonds [1][2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing. [3][9] - Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP. [14] - Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging. [25] - This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - and - Perpetual bonds, "Two - and - Perpetual" bonds refer to bank Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds) have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased. [4][33] - The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation. [4][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing - Interest - rate bond yields fluctuated narrowly. The yields of 1Y and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 1BP, the yield of 3Y decreased by 1BP, and the yields of 5Y and 7Y remained flat. [3][9] - Credit bond yields generally declined slightly. The yields of 1Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds increased by 1BP, while the other grades remained flat; the yield of 3Y AAA remained flat, and the other grades decreased by 2 - 4BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades increased by 1BP; the yields of 7Y all grades decreased by 1 - 3BP; the yields of 10Y all grades increased by 1BP. [3][9] - Most credit spreads slightly converged. The credit spreads of 1Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades narrowed by 1BP; the spread of 3Y AAA increased by 1BP, the spread of AA - decreased by 1BP, and the other grades compressed by 3BP; the spreads of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades widened by 1BP; the spreads of 7Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 3BP; the spreads of 10Y all grades narrowed by 1BP. [3][9] 3.2 Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP - In terms of external ratings, the credit spreads of external - rated AAA platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of AA + and AA platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [14] - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial - level platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of prefecture - level and district - county - level platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [19] 3.3 Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging - Most industrial bond spreads converged. The spread of Vanke continued to compress significantly, but the spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds and other private - enterprise real - estate bonds still widened overall. [25] - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds widened by 1 - 3BP, the spread of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 188BP, and the spread of private - enterprise real - estate bonds increased by 15BP. [25] - The spread of Longfor decreased by 2BP, that of CIFI increased by 49BP, that of Vanke decreased by 1802BP, that of Midea Real Estate decreased by 1BP, that of Huafa increased by 13BP, and that of Poly increased by 3BP. [25] - The spread of AA - grade coal bonds increased by 1BP, and the other grades decreased by 1BP; the spread of AAA - grade steel bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 2BP; the spread of AAA - grade chemical bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 1BP. [25] 3.4 This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased - The yields of 1Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds remained flat, and the spreads decreased by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads increased by 0 - 1BP. [33] - The yields of 3Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads widened by 3 - 4BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads widened by 1BP. [33] - The yields of 5Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds decreased by 0 - 2BP, the yields of perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads changed by the same margin. [33] - The yields of 10Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 5BP, and the spreads widened by 1 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds increased by 5BP, and the spreads increased by 3BP. [33] 3.5 The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation - The excess spread of industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds converged by 0.76BP compared with last week to 13.91BP, at the 36.17% percentile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained the same as last week at 13.21BP, at the 33.60% percentile since 2015. [36] - The excess spread of urban - investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.83BP to 4.86BP, at the 5.43% percentile. The excess spread of urban - investment 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.72BP to 9.62BP, at the 11.15% percentile. [36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data. The historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads of industrial and urban - investment individual bonds = the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds - the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban - investment bonds. [40] - The excess spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds = the credit spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds - the credit spread of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term. The excess spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds = the credit spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds - the credit spread of medium - term notes of the same grade and term. [40] - Sample screening criteria and other information: Both industrial and urban - investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bond samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical samples. Industrial and urban - investment bonds are all external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings. [40]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 债市延续修复，中长普信债表现偏强 ——信用周报 20260131 本周信用债收益率、信用利差走势分化。本周权益高位震荡，年初配置行情 延续叠加央行创新货币政策工具催化，收益率延续修复。全周来看，信用债表 现强于利率债。3y 及以上中长端普信债、2-4y 券商次级债收益率有所下行， 利差有所收窄，其中 3-4y 普信债、5y 城投、4y 券商次级债表现相对占优；其 余品种收益率多数上行，除 1y 品种外利差以走阔为主。近期仍处于摊余债基 开放高峰，3-5y 品种普信债利差进一步压缩。 热点重点政策及热点事件 1、央行副行长表示将增加离岸人民币国债供给规模。这一举措有利于满足境 外投资者对优质人民币资产配置的需要，活跃市场交易、提升人民币定价能力。 2、吉林省成功退出地方债务重点省份。吉林省债务体量相对较小，率先退出 重点省份基本符合市场预期，可重点关注退重点省份后区域发展机会及发债主 体新增融资空间。 3、万科公布与深铁 23.6 亿借款方案。借款方案背靠深铁将为债券部分兑付提 供资金保障，万科债务风险的缓释有助于阶段性稳定市场预期。 4、多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the activity of the credit bond secondary market due to structural interest rate cuts and excess MLF operations, with a weekly transaction volume reaching 9,929 billion yuan, marking a high point since July 2025 [10][12]. - Vanke's 1.1 billion yuan bond ("21 Vanke 02") extension was approved with a high vote of 92.11%, providing a precedent for the handling of other extended bonds [12][15]. - The net financing amount for credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 185.1 billion yuan, an increase of 120.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with total issuance rising to 418.6 billion yuan [16][19]. Group 2 - In the primary market, the average issuance rates for AA city investment bonds, AA+ industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased significantly, while other credit bonds showed fluctuations within 10 basis points [20][21]. - The secondary market saw a 1,350 billion yuan increase in transaction volume, with the turnover rate for credit bonds showing slight fluctuations [22][26]. - Credit spreads for AA+ electronic and non-bank financial sectors expanded significantly, while the AA+ pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a compression of 6 basis points [34][49]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the yields on credit bonds have continued to decline, with various credit products experiencing a reduction in spreads, making coupon assets increasingly scarce [50]. - The report suggests that mid-to-short-term credit bonds will remain a preferred choice for bond funds seeking safety, particularly recommending a focus on 3-5 year bank capital bonds [6][50].

Key Points - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds in the primary market increased on a month-on-month basis, with total issuance reaching 269.9 billion yuan and net financing at 131.1 billion yuan during the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026 [3][5] - The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 139.2 billion yuan, while net financing surged to 91.7 billion yuan. Conversely, local government bonds saw a significant increase in issuance to 130.7 billion yuan, the highest since November 2025, with net financing rising to 39.4 billion yuan [3][5] - In the secondary market, bond yields showed mixed performance, with overall credit spreads narrowing, particularly for 1-year bonds, which experienced the largest contraction [3][5] - The yield on 7-year bonds performed the best, with a decline of 2.36 basis points for AA+/AA/AA- rated local government bonds, while 5-year bonds saw an overall increase [3][5] - The trading volume of credit bond ETFs decreased significantly, with a net outflow of 55.3 billion yuan over four days, approaching 50% of the inflow seen in December 2025 [3][5] - The investment outlook for credit bonds remains favorable, with expectations of a stable bond market environment in the first quarter of 2026, despite potential pressures on credit spreads [3][5] - The strategy for credit investment focuses on short to medium-term credit bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 3-5 years, and emphasizes the opportunities presented by high-grade bonds [3][5] - The performance of various credit bonds is expected to vary, with short-term bonds outperforming longer-term bonds in terms of yield and credit spread [3][5][11]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 联系人 长端收益率走高，利差大多小幅收窄 ——信用分析周报（2025/12/29-2026/1/4） 投资要点： 本周信用热点事件：12 月 26 日"15 天安人寿"公告实质性违约。 本周市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所减少；资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 192 亿元。本周由于元旦节前整体发行量较少， 不同评级不同券种的平均发行利率较上周变化幅度相对较大。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 8328 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用 债换手率较上周整体下行。本周 1Y 短端信用债收益率小幅下行，其余不同评级不同 期限的信用债收益率大多有所上行。总体来看，本周不同行业不同评级的信用利差 较上周波动幅度均不超过 5BP，且大多有所压缩。具体来看，本周 ...

华福证券 2025 年 12 月 28 日 3-5Y 中高等级利差收敛 二永债收益率大致平稳 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251228 投资要点： ➢ 利率债窄幅震荡短端偏强，3-5Y 中高等级信用利差收敛。本周利率债 继续震荡，中短端表现偏强，1Y 期国开债收益率较上周下行 4BP，3Y、5Y 和 7Y 期下行 1BP，10Y 期上行 2BP。信用债表现分化，3Y 和 5Y 期品种 多数跟随利率下行，中高等级品种表现略强。1Y 期 AA+及以上等级收益率 持平，AA 和 AA-级收益率上行 1BP；3Y 期 AA+及以上等级信用债收益率 下行 1-3BP，其余等级持平；5Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 3-4BP；7Y、 10Y 期 AAA 信用债收益率下行 1-2BP，其余等级上行 2-3BP。信用利差同 样分化，1Y 期各等级信用利差上行 4-5BP；3Y 期 AA+及以上等级信用利 差下行 1-3BP，其余持平；5Y 期各等级信用债利差下行 2-3BP；7Y 期 AAA 级信用利差持平，其余等级上行 3BP；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用利差下行 4BP， 其余等级上行 0-1BP。 ➢ 本周城投债利差多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared to last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of those with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. For industrial bonds, most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For bank capital bonds, the short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly [3][4][30]. - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [5][7][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On December 19th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice allowing eligible overseas institutional investors to conduct bond repurchase business on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, providing them with standardized liquidity management tools [11]. - On December 15th, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into Postal Savings Bank of China for suspected violations in the underwriting and issuance of debt financing instruments [12]. - On December 15th, Guizhou Rural Commercial United Bank Co., Ltd. was approved to open. It acquired the shares of 16 rural commercial banks and 5 rural credit cooperatives, with an increased registered capital of 10.458 billion yuan and new shareholders including the Guizhou Provincial Department of Finance and China Kweichow Moutai Group Co., Ltd. [13]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 116.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.1 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 365.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.1 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 249.3 billion yuan, an increase of 29 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 20.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27 billion yuan compared to last week [14]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 21.3 billion yuan, an increase of 500 million yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 70.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.7 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 24 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan [15]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - This week, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds were adjusted to over 2.8%, while the average issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings and types were below 2.8%. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and urban investment bonds increased by 45BP and 27BP respectively compared to last week, and the issuance rate of AA + financial bonds increased by 58BP [17]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 44.3 billion yuan compared to last week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 259.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 367.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 627.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 25.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1 billion yuan [24]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds showed a mixed trend compared to last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.66%, a decrease of 0.1 pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.89%, an increase of 0.06 pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 4.05%, a decrease of 0.29 pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.67%, an increase of 0.03 pct [24]. 3.3.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the yields of AA and AAA + credit bonds with a 5 - year maturity increased by 2BP and 1BP respectively, while the yield of AAA - credit bonds decreased by 1BP; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds with a maturity over 10 years decreased by 1BP, 1BP, and less than 1BP respectively [25]. 3.3.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly by 14BP compared to last week, while the spreads of other industries and ratings widened to varying degrees. For example, the credit spreads of the AA + leisure service industry widened by 20BP, and the spreads of the AA + media and light manufacturing industries widened by 9BP [30]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with a maturity over 10 years compressed slightly by 1BP, while the spreads of other maturities widened by 3BP. By region, the top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Yunnan, Jilin, Shandong, and Sichuan; for AA + urban investment bonds, they were Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Yunnan; for AAA urban investment bonds, they were Liaoning, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Jilin, and Tianjin [32][34]. - **Industrial Bonds**: Most of the industrial credit spreads continued to widen, with the short - end widening more significantly than the long - end. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 4BP, 4BP, and 7BP respectively compared to last week; the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA private industrial bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [36]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The short - end spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 1 year widened slightly, while the long - end spreads over 10 years compressed slightly. For example, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 4BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared to last week, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds compressed by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively [39]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - This week, the implied ratings of bonds issued by five issuers, including Nanjing Zijin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and Beijing Tianheng Yuanxin Capital Investment Management Co., Ltd., were downgraded. The "H20 Tianying 3" issued by Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. and the "Hongda Debenture" issued by Hongda Xingye Co., Ltd. defaulted in essence [4][40]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, for urban investment bonds, short - duration (within 2Y) sinking urban investment bonds can be used as a base position to obtain stable coupon income, and high - quality urban investment entities with a moderately extended duration (3 - 5Y) can be selected to increase portfolio returns. For industrial bonds, high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds can be used as a base position with an extended duration to obtain stable coupon income, and attention should be paid to industries with marginal improvements. For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, trading opportunities of those with good liquidity (preferably 3 - 5Y AAA -) should be grasped, and attention should be paid to high - quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in economically developed areas and areas with advanced debt resolution progress [44].

华福证券 2025 年 12 月 21 日 利率回落信用利差被动走扩 长久期弱资质城投承压 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251221 投资要点： ➢ 资金宽松带动利率回落，信用表现滞后利差走扩。本周资金宽松带动 中短端利率显著回落，收益率继续下行，1Y、3Y、5Y、7Y 和 10Y 期国开 债收益率较上周分别下行 4BP、5BP、3BP、1BP 和 2BP。除 5Y 期中低等 级外信用债收益率多数跟随利率下行，但表现相对滞后，信用利差多数继 续走阔。1Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1-2BP；3Y 期各等级信用债收益 率多数下行 3BP，AA 级下行 3BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率下行 1BP， 其余等级上行 2-3BP；7Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1BP；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率上行 1BP，其余等级下行 1BP。从信用利差来看，1Y 期 各等级信用利差上行 2-3BP；3Y 期各等级信用利差上行 3-5BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债利差上行 2BP，其余等级上行 5-6BP；7Y 期各等级信用利差持 平；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用利差上行 3BP，其余等级上行 1BP。 ...