Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's commitment to lower the consumption tax rate is causing significant turmoil in the bond market, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal management and investor confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Japanese bond market is experiencing severe fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 18.5 basis points in just two days, reaching a 27-year high of 2.380% [1]. - The current situation is reminiscent of the "Truss shock" in the UK, where unbacked tax cuts led to a collapse in the bond market [2]. - Market sentiment is pessimistic, with local banks reporting minimal purchases of Japanese government bonds this year [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Japan's public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 230%, the highest among developed countries, raising alarms about financial stability [2]. - Approximately 60% of Japan's fiscal budget is allocated to social security and debt financing, with these expenditures expected to continue rising [4]. - Kishi's plan to suspend the 8% food consumption tax could result in an annual fiscal loss of 5 trillion yen, equivalent to Japan's entire education budget [4]. Group 3: Policy Tools and Challenges - Japan has limited policy tools available to address market volatility, with suggestions for bond buybacks or reducing new bond issuance being proposed [6]. - The Bank of Japan may adjust its bond purchase plans or initiate emergency buying operations, but such measures are seen as having limited effectiveness [6]. - Analysts believe that without a concrete funding plan or spending cuts, the turmoil in the Japanese bond market is unlikely to stabilize [6].

与此同时，夏季参议院选举结果可能加大经济刺激措施或消费税减免的需求，可能需要增加发行量。在削减超长期国债发行之际，可增发其他期限国债， 以维持2025财年发行总量不变。 这似曾相识的一幕，不由得令人想起了美国前财长耶伦！在今年1月卸任前，由于触及债务上限，时任美国财长耶伦采取了"非常措施"以避免债务违约， 暂停长期债券发行，通过发行更多短期国债（如国库券）维持政府运转。 超长期国债供需失衡推动减发预期 为了应对债市风暴，日本可能大幅削减长债发行量，增发其他期限债券，来缓解市场压力。 5月27日，据报道，日本财务省将于6月20日举行一级交易商会议，此前已向参与者发送调查问卷，征询对2025财年日本国债各期限发行量的意见。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券在最新研报中称，由于超长期国债供需严重后果失衡，市场对超长期国债减发的预期正在升温。据野村证券分析师Masaki Kuwahara测算： 30年期和40年期国债月度供需缺口高达3000亿日元，预计将通过大幅削减长债发行量来缓解市场压力。 报告称，目前引发显著供需担忧的30年期和40年期国债发行量平均每月约1.1万亿日元。 从需求端看，假设海外投资者的超长期债券净购买量 ...