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新能源及有色金属日报:库存继续去化,碳酸锂短期仍有支撑-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is favorable due to continued inventory depletion, consumption exceeding expectations, and slower - than - expected resumption of production at previously shut - down mines, providing some support to the market. However, attention should be paid to consumption and inventory inflection points. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, causing the market to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 83,120 yuan/ton and closed at 83,400 yuan/ton, with a 1.19% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 829,117 lots, and the open interest was 532,871 lots (506,882 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 3,780 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,641 lots, a change of 116 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 - 81,800 yuan/ton, a change of 850 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,300 - 78,300 yuan/ton, also a change of 850 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 985 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factory's operating rate is rising, and demand supports spot transactions. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to have growth potential. The power market (new energy vehicles) and the energy - storage market are both booming [2]. - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene concentrate ended. The auction item was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene concentrate from Wodgina, with an actual transaction price of 7,058 yuan/ton (tax - included, self - pick - up from Zhenjiang Port) [2]. Inventory Situation - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons. The production from spodumene and mica decreased slightly, while the production from salt - lakes and recycling increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,008 tons to 127,358 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in the intermediate links increased slightly. Recent consumption has strongly supported inventory depletion [3]. Strategy - Short - term: It is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to inventory and consumption inflection points and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices. It is expected that the willingness of upstream to hedge will increase when the price reaches 85,000 yuan/ton [4]. - For cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, there are no relevant strategies provided [5].