Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Prime Day event from July 8 to 11, 2025, is facing challenges due to the ongoing trade war initiated by former President Trump, which has led to fluctuating tariff policies affecting brand participation and consumer spending [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Spending - Despite resilient economic indicators, short-term consumer behavior, such as preemptive purchases before tariffs take effect, may obscure long-term trends [2]. - A survey indicated that 25% of respondents would skip Prime Day due to tariffs, while 57% would closely monitor price trends [2]. - Amazon's Prime Day is expected to provide insights into consumer spending patterns for the summer [2]. Group 2: Brand Participation and Pricing - Some brands, like Unilever's Blueair, have reduced the number of promotional products due to increased costs from tariffs, with discounts typically around 30% now being reconsidered [3]. - Approximately 60% of products on Amazon come from third-party sellers, some of whom are unable to offer discounts this year due to rising costs [2][3]. - Amazon's CEO stated that tariffs have not significantly raised prices, and the company is working with partners to maintain low prices and a diverse product selection [3]. Group 3: Sales Projections and Market Impact - Adobe predicts that Amazon and other U.S. retailers will achieve $23.8 billion in online sales during the four-day event [1]. - EMarketer estimates that U.S. consumers will spend nearly $13 billion on Amazon during Prime Day, accounting for 75% of all online spending during that period, up from 59% in 2024 [3]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% year-over-year increase in average daily sales during the extended event, despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures [3]. Group 4: Risks of Extended Promotion - Extending the duration of Prime Day may reduce the urgency that typically drives consumer purchases, potentially leading to increased cart abandonment [4].