Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2025 show a significant divergence, indicating a potential shift in policy focus towards "fiscal and financial coordination" [1][4][5] Revenue Summary - In December 2025, the broad fiscal revenue decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, marking a decline of 13.3 percentage points from November, the lowest level of the year [1][3][5] - General fiscal revenue fell sharply by 25% year-on-year, influenced partly by a high base effect from the same period in 2024 [9][22] - Non-tax revenue saw a drastic decline of 47.9%, becoming the largest drag on overall revenue, likely due to stricter management regulations implemented in the second half of the year [9][22] - Government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, although the decline was less severe than in previous months, with land transfer revenue showing a slight improvement [9][17] Expenditure Summary - Despite revenue pressures, broad fiscal expenditure saw a smaller decline of 0.7% year-on-year in December, with a narrowing drop of 1 percentage point from November [2][3][31] - General fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a nearly 2 percentage point reduction in the decline compared to November [31] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.5%, indicating a positive growth trend despite a slight slowdown from previous months [11][39] - Significant increases were noted in urban and rural community expenditures, which rose by 12.8%, reflecting a shift towards infrastructure and technological investments [11][33] Policy Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 may see a stronger reliance on fiscal and financial coordination to stimulate economic growth, with a focus on expanding interest subsidies and new infrastructure investments [2][13] - The upcoming fiscal policy is expected to emphasize increased total spending, with a focus on consumption and livelihood improvements, while maintaining necessary levels of deficit and debt [14]

事件： 1月30日，财政部公布2025年财政收支情况。 2025年，全国一般公共预算收入216045亿元，比上 年下降1.7%；全国一般公共预算支出287395亿元，比上年增长1%。 核心观点：财政收支分化加剧，后续政策重心或转向"财政金融协同" 12月广义财政收支呈现收入端深度调整、支出端维持韧性的收支显著分化特征。 12月广义财政收入同 比-18.5%，较11月下滑13.3个百分点，创下年内最低水平；广义财政支出同比-0.7%，较11月降幅收窄1个 百分点。从预算完成度看，收入完成度不及往年同期，但支出端在年末稳增长诉求下保持了相对强度， 显示出年底在收入承压背景下财政仍在加快支出、托底经济。 一般财政收入明显回落，拖累广义财政收入增速下滑。 2025年12月广义财政收入同比-18.5%，较11月同 比下降13.3个百分点；其中，政府性基金收入同比-11.7%，较11月降幅收窄4个百分点；一般财政收入同 比-25%。从预算完成度看，2025年12月广义财政收入预算完成11.7%，低于2024年同期的13.7%以及过去 五年平均的12.3%基本持平。 一般财政支出及政府性基金支出加快，推动广义财政支出降幅收 ...