淘汰鸡价格
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银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251211
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 09:27
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - With the recent increase in the number of culled chickens, the previous supply pressure has been alleviated. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be built at low prices as the supply pressure eases [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3144, down 9 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3559, up 8; JD09 closed at 4060, up 6 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 415, down 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 501, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 916, up 15 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: 01 egg/corn was 1.40, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal was 1.02, down 0.01. Other ratios remained unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the producing areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.93 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [2]. 3. Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2356, down 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3092, unchanged; the average price of egg - laying chicken feed was 2.58, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.93, up 0.03; the average price of chicks was 3.21, up 0.04; the profit per chicken was 1.91 yuan, up 0.96 from the previous day [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - **Price Trends**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. Egg prices in Beijing increased, and prices in different regions showed a pattern of rising and stabilizing [4]. - **Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. The estimated inventory in December 2025, November, February, and March was 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of December 5, the sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas decreased by 4% week - on - week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased [6]. 5. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and far - month contracts in April and May can be considered for long positions at low prices [7]. 6. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions can be considered for far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].