研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 03 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3618 | 3645 | -27 | 01-05 | 212 | 216 | -4 | | JD05 | 3406 | 3429 | -23 | 05-09 | -402 | -388 | -14 | | JD09 | 3808 | 3817 | -9 | 09-01 | 190 | 172 | 18 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1.57 | -0.03 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.21 | -0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.43 ...

2026年1月蛋鸡养殖在此前三个月连续亏损之后实现扭亏为盈，究其原因，成本增加有限，而收入大幅增加是主因。展望2月，虽然蛋鸡 养殖成本趋稳，但鸡蛋价格或高位回落，这意味着蛋鸡养殖将再次面临亏损风险。 2月蛋鸡养殖或再次进入亏损局面 展望2月份鸡蛋市场，鸡蛋需求季节性转淡，但供应面压力仍在，鸡蛋价格或高位回落。 具体来看，需求方面，2月食品加工企业和学校陆续放假，市场需求逐渐转淡。 供应方面，根据前期鸡苗销量以及老母鸡出栏量数据进行推算，1月新开产蛋鸡供应量或有所减少，但养殖户惜售情绪影响下，老母鸡淘 汰量不大，或支撑在产蛋鸡存栏量高位微降，鸡蛋供应仍较充足。综合研判，预计2月鸡蛋市场供强需弱，蛋价或高位回落，预计均价下 滑0.90-1.00元／斤，蛋价跌至低位。 1月蛋鸡养殖扭亏为盈 2026年1月蛋鸡养殖终于扭亏为盈。卓创资讯监测显示，1月1日至23日，蛋鸡养殖由亏损0.22元转为盈利0.61元，累计增加0.83元，成功扭 转3个月的亏损局面。1月鸡蛋价格和饲料价格齐涨，但鸡蛋价格涨幅较大，支撑蛋鸡养殖盈利扭亏为盈。 具体来看，供应压力下滑，季节性需求显著提升，1月蛋价强势上涨。由于2025年12月全国在产 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Considering that the March contract is for after the Spring Festival, when egg demand is weak and prices are low, the upward space for the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited. The egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price**: The average price in the main production areas is 3.64 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, with some areas showing price increases or minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Inventory**: In December, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a 5% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. The monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicken seedlings in December was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Slaughter**: From January 16th, the weekly slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Sales**: As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low [5]. - **Profit**: As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a 0.26 increase from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a 0.41 yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreasing from the previous week [6]. - **Price of Culled Hens**: The price of culled hens in the main production areas is 4.45 yuan/jin, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [7]. II. Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the overall market sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly, providing some support for the futures market. The egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months. The upward space for the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited [8]. III. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The recent increase in egg prices is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices, with the approaching Spring Festival leading to a faster overall market sales situation. The current egg production is starting to reduce capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months. However, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited as it is a post - Spring Festival contract with weak demand and low egg prices after the Spring Festival [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price Changes**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas today is 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable today, with some regions showing price increases or remaining unchanged [2][4]. - **Inventory Status**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - **Slaughter and Sales Volume**: From January 16th to the end of the week, the number of laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of January 16th was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of the week of January 8th, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of January 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly decreasing from the previous week [6]. - **Slaughter Chicken Price**: Today, the price of slaughter chickens nationwide increased, with the average price in the main producing areas at 4.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. II. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. The current reduction in egg production capacity and the approaching Spring Festival are factors contributing to the price increase. However, due to the weak demand for eggs after the Spring Festival, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [8]. III. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the 5 - month far - month contract at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The egg market's supply-demand pattern has improved, but long - term egg - laying hen capacity remains in surplus with high price pressure. The current capacity is at a high level but approaching an inflection point, with an overall bearish long - term trend. If speculating on a rebound, it is recommended to focus on far - month contracts [1] - Market expectations are that holiday stocking during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, and Mid - Autumn Festival & National Day in the second and third quarters will boost demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The inventory of laying hens is still at an absolute high. Although the inventory of laying hens in production has decreased slightly, the supply remains high. The market supply - demand pattern has improved. In December, the inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion, a month - on - month decrease. The egg - laying rate is expected to increase with the dropping temperature. The elimination volume of old hens remains high due to low breeding profits, and the enthusiasm for culling is fair. Chicken chick sales increased slightly in December, but the overall replenishment sentiment remains cautious. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of large and medium - sized eggs increased month - on - month, while that of small - sized eggs decreased [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand has started, and the circulation and production inventories are at historical lows. The previous low of the main contract may be a phased low, and there may be a second bottom - testing near contract expiration. The bottom - rebound grinding range may be between 2800 - 3400 [6] - **Strategies**: For the unilateral strategy, close out previous short positions, and either wait and see or lightly bet on a peak - season rebound. For the basis strategy and the calendar - spread strategy, wait and see [6] 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 11.01% [6] - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about inventory depreciation, short egg futures (JD2603) to lock in finished - product profits (10% - 25% recommended ratio); if there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell call options (JD2603 - C - 3400); if concerned about inventory depreciation but not wanting to miss potential large price increases, buy out - of - the - money put options (JD2603 - P - 2900). For procurement management, if there are future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw - material prices, buy egg forward contracts (JD2603 - P - 2900) according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs; if there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell put options; if concerned about rising procurement prices but not wanting to lock in profits in advance, buy out - of - the - money call options (JD2603 - C - 3400) [6] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: In January 2026, the egg price and feed cost both increased, but the increase in egg price (16.72% from January 1 - 15) far exceeded that of feed cost (0.53%), leading to the egg - laying hen breeding industry turning from loss to profit. This improvement in profitability has significantly boosted farmers' confidence, resulting in stronger reluctance to sell and a slower market supply rhythm [8] - **Negative Information**: In the third week of November (collection date: November 20), the mutton price increased month - on - month, while the prices of pork products, eggs, chicken, commercial - generation chicks, live cattle, and laying - hen compound feed decreased month - on - month, and the prices of beef, fresh milk, corn, soybean meal, fattening - pig compound feed, and broiler - chicken compound feed remained flat [9] 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the production areas Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The main egg futures contract 03 opened at 3040 yuan/500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3072 yuan/500KG at the end of the week, a 1.05% increase. The open interest was 263,000 contracts, an increase of 12,344 contracts from last week [10] 3.2 Basis and Calendar - Spread Structure Analysis - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: The overall egg calendar - spread shows a contango structure. Although the January - February spread shows a back structure, it follows the normal seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, with the overall structure being contango [12] - **Basis Structure**: The increase in the culled - chicken output has made the spot market strong. The basis of contract 01 has widened significantly, and the far - month basis has also strengthened [14] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current egg - laying hen breeding profit is gradually recovering and approaching the cost line. Seasonally, it is still the lowest in the past five years, giving farmers an incentive to cull hens. This week, the breeding profit remained in the red but is about to turn positive. Feed prices have rebounded, with the corn price strengthening periodically, leading to an increase in breeding costs. If the current breeding profit continues to be in the red, farmers' desire to recoup losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of hens [16] Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve and to - be - culled hens decreased. The proportion of hens over 450 days old dropped to 8.52%, a 0.04% month - on - month decrease; the proportion of main - laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 79.16%, a 0.26% month - on - month increase; the proportion of reserve hens under 120 days old dropped to 12.32%, a 0.22% month - on - month decrease. The egg - laying rate remained flat month - on - month [19] - **Chicken Chick Situation**: Chicken chick sales increased slightly in December. The total sales of commercial - generation chicken chicks from 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 39.59 million, a 0.10% month - on - month increase. The egg - laying hen breeding is still in the red, but the strong increase in egg and old - hen prices has turned the breeding profit positive (this week's average weekly egg profit was about 0.13 yuan), directly boosting farmers' confidence in replenishment. Chicken chick orders from breeding enterprises are generally scheduled until the end of February and early March, with some until mid - March, indicating guaranteed future demand [21] - **Culled - Chicken Situation**: There is a divergence between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data on culled - chicken volume. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase this month, and the market's disagreement over the data is growing [23] 5.2 Consumption Situation - Egg sales in the main sales areas increased, while the egg arrival volume at the Guangdong wholesale market decreased [26] 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production - link inventory and the circulation - link inventory were at multi - year lows, at 0.26 days and 0.48 days respectively [28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas today is 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.62 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The mainstream egg prices across the country mostly continued to rise today [4]. - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was about 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years [5]. - As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.33 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider building long positions in the far - month May contract at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of short - term capacity reduction will be relatively gentle, the spot price is expected to decline, the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered to be established at low prices for the far - month May contract as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3072, up 45 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3558, up 17; JD09 closed at 4086, up 40 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 486, up 28; the 05 - 09 spread was - 528, down 23; the 09 - 01 spread was 1014, down 5 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans all showed slight increases [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin. Most of the national mainstream prices declined [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2340 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.57 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was - 2.61 yuan, down 1.99 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was at a low level in previous years [5]. - **Culling Situation**: In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 486 days, unchanged [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term capacity reduction will be gentle, the spot price will decline, the near - month contracts will be volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered for the far - month May contract [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be mainly volatile and weak in the short term, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions on dips [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3114 (down 8 from the previous close), JD05 at 3534 (down 26), JD09 at 3996 (down 56). The 01 - 05 spread was - 420 (up 18), 05 - 09 was - 462 (up 30), 09 - 01 was 882 (down 48). The ratios of 01, 05, 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: The main producing area average price was 3.00 yuan/jin (unchanged), and the main sales area average price was 3.22 yuan/jin (unchanged). The average price of culled chickens was 3.87 yuan/jin (down 0.02 yuan/jin) [2] - **Profit Calculation**: The profit per chicken was 0.15 yuan (down 0.04 yuan from the previous day). The average price of culled chickens was 3.87 yuan/jin (down 0.02 yuan), the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan (up 0.04 yuan), and the prices of feed such as corn, soybeans, and egg - laying chicken compound feed also had some changes [2] 2. Fundamental Information - **Price Trends**: The average price of the main producing areas remained unchanged, and the average price of the main sales areas increased by 0.02 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price remained stable, and the egg prices in various regions were mostly stable with some local fluctuations [4] - **Egg - laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory in December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 is approximately 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5] - **Chicken Culling and Sales**: In the week of December 5, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.82 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age was 488 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7115 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [5][6] - **Profit and Inventory**: As of November 21, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of December 5, the average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.04 days and 0.07 days respectively compared to the previous week [6] 3. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions on dips [7] 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. One can consider building long positions on dips for far - month contracts [8] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - With the recent increase in the number of culled chickens, the previous supply pressure has been alleviated. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be built at low prices as the supply pressure eases [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3144, down 9 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3559, up 8; JD09 closed at 4060, up 6 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 415, down 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 501, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 916, up 15 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: 01 egg/corn was 1.40, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal was 1.02, down 0.01. Other ratios remained unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the producing areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.93 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [2]. 3. Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2356, down 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3092, unchanged; the average price of egg - laying chicken feed was 2.58, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.93, up 0.03; the average price of chicks was 3.21, up 0.04; the profit per chicken was 1.91 yuan, up 0.96 from the previous day [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - **Price Trends**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. Egg prices in Beijing increased, and prices in different regions showed a pattern of rising and stabilizing [4]. - **Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. The estimated inventory in December 2025, November, February, and March was 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of December 5, the sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas decreased by 4% week - on - week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased [6]. 5. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and far - month contracts in April and May can be considered for long positions at low prices [7]. 6. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions can be considered for far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be built at low prices as the supply pressure eases [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3153, up 36 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3637, up 48; JD09 closed at 4130, up 41. The 01 - 05 spread was - 484, down 12; the 05 - 09 spread was - 493, up 7; the 09 - 01 spread was 977, up 5. The ratios of 01, 05, 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: The main producing area average price was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main selling area average price was 3.22 yuan/jin, unchanged. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable, and the prices of Beijing and other regions were also stable. The average price of eliminated chickens was 3.88 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4] 2. Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In November, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The egg sales volume in representative selling areas in the week of December 5 was 7115 tons, a decrease of 4% compared with the previous week [5][6] - **Chicken Culling**: In the week of December 5, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 20.82 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 488 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5] - **Inventory and Profit**: As of December 5, the production - link average inventory was 1.06 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week, and the circulation - link average inventory was 1.14 days, an increase of 0.07 days. As of November 21, the weekly average egg profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] 3. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the amount of eliminated chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and far - month contracts in April and May can consider building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [7] 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions in far - month contracts can be considered to be built at low prices [8] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]