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银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:45
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on eggs, dated July 15, 2025 [2] - It includes information on the futures and spot markets, fundamental analysis, trading logic, and strategies [3][6][9] Group 2: Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3620, up 8; JD05 at 3413, up 1; JD09 at 3615, up 13 [3] - Cross - month spreads: 01 - 05 spread was 207, up 7; 05 - 09 was - 202, down 12; 09 - 01 was - 5, up 5 [3] - Ratios: 01 egg/corn was 1.62, up 0.01; 01 egg/bean meal was 1.20, up 0.01 [3] Group 3: Spot Market - Egg prices:产区均价 was 2.78 yuan/jin, up 0.16; 销区均价 was 2.96 yuan/jin, up 0.18 [3] -淘汰鸡 prices: The average price was 4.77 yuan/jin, up 0.04 [3] Group 4: Fundamental Information - Egg prices: Main production area prices were stable, with a national mainstream price hold. Beijing's major markets had stable prices [6] - In - production laying hens: In June, the inventory was 1.34 billion, up 0.06 billion from last month, 6.7% year - on - year [7] - Chicken chick output: In June, the sample enterprise output was 40.75 million, down 9% month - on - month, up 1.9% year - on - year [7] - Hen culling: In the week of July 11, the culling volume was 16.27 million, down 5% from the previous week [7] - Egg sales: As of July 10, the sales volume in representative sales areas was 7592 tons, with little change [8] - Inventory: As of July 10, production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.09 days; circulation - link was 1.17 days, down 0.1 days [8] - Profit: As of July 10, the weekly average profit per jin was - 0.68 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin [8] Group 5: Trading Logic - The downward space of futures prices is limited due to current profit conditions [9] - The upward space of the September contract depends on future hen culling volume [9] - Spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract may rise after hitting the bottom [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]