目录 鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 GALAXYFUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 1 227/82/4 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.95元/斤，较上周五上涨0.02元/斤，主销区均价3.21元/斤，较上周五上涨0.15元/斤。周初，市场延续上周反 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively slow in the short term. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, while the December main contract has given a certain premium, the expected upside space is relatively limited [8]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 3: Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3383, down 8 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3505, up 17; JD09 closed at 3856, up 6 [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread was -122, down 25; the 05 - 09 spread was -351, up 11; the 09 - 01 spread was 473, up 14 [2]. - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, down 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, unchanged; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.24, unchanged; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, down 0.01; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.31, unchanged [2]. Group 4: Spot Market - The average price in the main producing areas was 3 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan per jin from the previous trading day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.23 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan per jin [2][4]. - The price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan per jin from the previous trading day [2][7]. Group 5: Fundamental Information - In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in October was about 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - From November 2025 to February 2026, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - From November 6th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of November 6th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 7300 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [6]. - As of November 6th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.25 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from the previous week. On October 31st, the expected profit of laying hen farming was -4.82 yuan per bird, a decrease of 1.42 yuan per jin from the previous week [6]. - As of November 6th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short term will be relatively gradual. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, and the main contract in December has already given a certain premium, the expected upside space is relatively limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3385, up 48 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3509, up 17; JD09 closed at 3867, up 8. The 01 - 05 spread was -124, up 31; the 05 - 09 spread was -358, up 9; the 09 - 01 spread was 482, down 40 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.71, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.87 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining stable, and only some local prices showing minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.99 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The prices of culled chickens in different regions showed some fluctuations, with prices in Handan and Shijiazhuang rising, and prices in Jinan and Dezhou falling [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous expectation. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from November 2025 to February 2026 is approximately 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In October, the monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [5]. - **Culled Chicken Slaughter Volume and Age**: In the week of October 31, the national slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 20.53 million, an increase of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 494 days, a decrease of 5 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7658 tons, an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of October 31, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.2 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous week. On October 31, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 4.82 yuan per bird, an increase of 1.42 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of October 31, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, also unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of eggs is strong while the demand is weak, and the egg price is still under pressure. The egg futures and spot prices have repeatedly hit new lows, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage. It is recommended to hold the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. The mid - to - long - term capacity reduction process will dominate the probability of market reversal [5][6] - The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference operating range of 2800 - 3200. In terms of options, out - of - the money call options can be sold [6] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - long Views and Strategies - The spot price of eggs has stopped falling, with the main - producing area's average price at 2.91 yuan/jin, a 1.75% increase from last week. The national in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, with great supply pressure. The short - term egg price has touched a new low, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has increased, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [5][13] - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and an 8.87% year - on - year increase. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, resulting in a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory. It is expected that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory in October will continue to decrease slightly, but the supply surplus is still the main theme [5] - Considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses the price. It is expected that the egg price will continue to be under pressure. In October, the demand weakens, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The average spot price of eggs in the main - producing areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, a 0.05 - yuan increase from last week, with a 1.75% increase. The low - price area reports 2.53 yuan/jin. The overall supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the egg price is still under pressure [13] 3. Supply Side - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, leading to a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory [23] - In September, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chicken seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.8 million, a 2.83% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the chicken - seedling price will still have a slight downward risk next month, with an average monthly price of about 2.85 yuan/feather [29] - This week, the total出栏量 of old hens in 19 representative markets in 10 key producing areas was 609,400, a 1.55% month - on - month increase. The increase in the出栏 volume of old hens has slowed down, and the average slaughter age of culled chickens this week is 497 days [37] - The production - link inventory has increased significantly. Although the storage environment has improved, there is still a bearish sentiment in the market, which is negative for the egg price [42] 4. Demand Side - The egg price shows obvious seasonal characteristics within a year, mainly due to the supply - demand relationship, especially the short - term changes are mainly reflected in the demand side [57] 5. Cost Side - The price fluctuations of corn and soybean meal directly affect the price of egg - laying hen feed raw materials. This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease [65] 6. Cost and Profit - This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease. The farming profit is - 0.50 yuan/jin, a 0.06 - yuan month - on - month increase, with a 10.71% increase. It is expected that the farming profit in October will decline synchronously [65][73]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and higher than expected. The demand side is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short term, egg prices are likely to remain weak. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today's average price in the main production areas is 2.7 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas is 3.11 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. The number of remaining trucks in Dongguan parking lot and 1st parking lot is reported. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and the market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [6]. - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - From October 2nd to the week, the national culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, a 3% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of laying hens was 500 days, 2 days more than the previous week [7]. - As of the week of October 9th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,179 tons, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of the week of October 9th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.5 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.34 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - As of October 2nd, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.3 yuan from the previous week. On October 3rd, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 3.3 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the national price of culled hens has dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.29 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant short - term improvement, egg prices are likely to remain weak, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on eggs, dated July 15, 2025 [2] - It includes information on the futures and spot markets, fundamental analysis, trading logic, and strategies [3][6][9] Group 2: Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3620, up 8; JD05 at 3413, up 1; JD09 at 3615, up 13 [3] - Cross - month spreads: 01 - 05 spread was 207, up 7; 05 - 09 was - 202, down 12; 09 - 01 was - 5, up 5 [3] - Ratios: 01 egg/corn was 1.62, up 0.01; 01 egg/bean meal was 1.20, up 0.01 [3] Group 3: Spot Market - Egg prices:产区均价 was 2.78 yuan/jin, up 0.16; 销区均价 was 2.96 yuan/jin, up 0.18 [3] -淘汰鸡 prices: The average price was 4.77 yuan/jin, up 0.04 [3] Group 4: Fundamental Information - Egg prices: Main production area prices were stable, with a national mainstream price hold. Beijing's major markets had stable prices [6] - In - production laying hens: In June, the inventory was 1.34 billion, up 0.06 billion from last month, 6.7% year - on - year [7] - Chicken chick output: In June, the sample enterprise output was 40.75 million, down 9% month - on - month, up 1.9% year - on - year [7] - Hen culling: In the week of July 11, the culling volume was 16.27 million, down 5% from the previous week [7] - Egg sales: As of July 10, the sales volume in representative sales areas was 7592 tons, with little change [8] - Inventory: As of July 10, production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.09 days; circulation - link was 1.17 days, down 0.1 days [8] - Profit: As of July 10, the weekly average profit per jin was - 0.68 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin [8] Group 5: Trading Logic - The downward space of futures prices is limited due to current profit conditions [9] - The upward space of the September contract depends on future hen culling volume [9] - Spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract may rise after hitting the bottom [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]