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油脂油料产业日报-20250714
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 14:26
Group 1: Core Views on Oils - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventory. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 increased by 5.5% - 7.5% month - on - month, and June exports surged 35% year - on - year to 1.85 million tons. However, domestic July crude palm oil inventory remained at 2.05 million tons, with a 0.5% month - on - month increase. Attention should be paid to export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show an intensified internal - external divergence. The US Clean Energy Spending Act is expected to increase annual soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons, supporting the CBOT soybean oil. But in China, July's first - half imported soybean arrivals were about 4.5 million tons (9 million tons expected for the whole month), and soybean oil commercial inventory reached about 1.05 million tons as of July 15, increasing by 40,000 tons weekly. Key variables are US policy implementation progress and North American soybean - growing area weather [3]. - Rapeseed oil fundamentals maintain a pattern of high inventory and weak consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory is above 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of over 85%. Downstream dealer purchases decreased by 15% month - on - month. Policy support is limited, and long - term supply contraction expectations have not materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [4]. Group 2: Oils Price and Spread - The table shows the month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads of oils, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc., with corresponding prices and daily changes [5]. - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices are presented, including prices of palm oil 01, 05, 09, BMD palm oil, etc., along with their changes [8]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices are provided, including prices of soybean oil 01, 05, 09, CBOT soybean oil, etc., and their changes [13]. Group 3: Oilseeds Situation - For imported soybeans, due to the appreciation of the Brazilian exchange rate and the weakening of the US soybean market, Brazilian premium quotes are rising, and there is a lack of effective buying profit in the fourth - quarter buying cycle. July arrivals are 11.5 million tons, August 11 million tons, and September 10 million tons. The fourth - quarter supply gap depends on Sino - US relations [17]. - For domestic soybean meal, supply - side pressure suppresses the spot price. With sufficient soybean raw materials, oil mill operating rates are rising, and supply exceeds demand. Demand - side physical inventory is mainly in middle - stream traders, so the basis spot price is expected to be under pressure [17]. - For rapeseed meal, inventory reduction is slow, and downstream addition ratios lack cost - effectiveness. Market reaction to Sino - Canadian meeting news is lackluster, and its market trend follows soybean meal, with a weak outlook [17]. Group 4: Oilseeds Futures Price and Spread - The table shows the closing prices, daily changes, and change rates of oilseed futures, including soybean meal 01, 05, 09 and rapeseed meal 01, 05, 09 [18]. - The table presents the spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc., along with their prices and daily changes [21].