Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the harvest in February and the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro expectations, cotton prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival [8]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives the rise of US soybean prices. In the short - term, domestic protein meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - For oils, in the medium - term, oil prices are bullish as the growth of oil consumption exceeds the production growth under the promotion of biodiesel policies. In the short - term, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait for a correction to buy [16]. - For eggs, during the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may need to squeeze out the premium, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. The long - term logic of capacity reduction has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [19]. - For pigs, the short - term outlook is pessimistic due to large supply and inventory accumulation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. In the long - term, pay attention to the downside support after the price decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price showed a strong - side oscillation. The closing price of the May contract was 5,278 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. - From the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - south region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons [3]. - StoneX expects a surplus of 2.9 million tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [3]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, the cumulative import of sugar was 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons [3]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. After the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,988 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [6]. - As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. The export to China was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons [6][7]. - The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [7]. Strategy - In the short - term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro expectations, cotton prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,734 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,244 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day [10]. - Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. StoneX estimates that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons [11]. - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, and the harvesting rate was 11.4%. From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample soybean arrival volume was 1.56 million tons, and the soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons [11]. Strategy - The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives the rise of US soybean prices. In the short - term, domestic protein meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. Oils Market Information - On Tuesday, the oil futures price oscillated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,098 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day [14]. - It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons. The US Treasury Department released new guidance on biofuel tax credits [14][15]. - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample data showed that the inventory of the three major oils increased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.92 million tons [15]. Strategy - In the medium - term, oil prices are bullish as the growth of oil consumption exceeds the production growth under the promotion of biodiesel policies. In the short - term, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait for a correction to buy [16]. Eggs Market Information - Most of the national egg prices were stable, and a few declined. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. As the Spring Festival approaches, market demand will gradually weaken, and trading volume will gradually shrink [18]. Strategy - During the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may need to squeeze out the premium, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. The long - term logic of capacity reduction has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [19]. Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.27 yuan to 11.82 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.09 yuan to 10.8 yuan/kg. The pig market supply remains loose, and the bearish sentiment persists [21]. Strategy - The short - term outlook is pessimistic due to large supply and inventory accumulation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. In the long - term, pay attention to the downside support after the price decline [22].

Group 1 - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures rose, benefiting from the spillover effect of soaring soybean futures [1] - Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) reported that February corn exports from Brazil are expected to reach 793,364 tons, down from 1.32 million tons in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that for the week ending January 29, U.S. corn export sales increased by 1.0412 million tons, a decrease of 37% from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average [3] - The market had estimated net corn export sales to be between 800,000 and 2.1 million tons [3] - During the same week, U.S. corn export shipments totaled 1.147 million tons, a decrease of 31% from the previous week and 24% from the four-week average [3] Group 3 - The latest guidance on biofuel tax credits from the U.S. Treasury, which clarified policies for biofuel producers, has been well received by traders and provided support for corn futures, as corn is a key raw material for ethanol production [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US soybean oil increased significantly, while the price of Malaysian palm oil declined relatively. Affected by this, the price of domestic oils dropped significantly, with rapeseed oil experiencing the largest decline [6]. - The market anticipates that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decrease, ending the consecutive 10 - month growth trend due to seasonal production decline and increased exports [11]. - The new US 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule has boosted the market's optimistic expectations for the demand outlook of US soybean oil [6]. - Next week, the MPOB and USDA reports are due. The market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect palm oil production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern, while the domestic oil market is weaker and awaits the guidance of the two key reports [62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 3.1.1 Oil Market Review - This week, the US dollar and international crude oil prices dropped at the beginning of the week, putting pressure on US soybean oil. However, after the US Treasury issued the 45Z proposed rule, the price of US soybean oil soared, with two consecutive days of about 2% growth. On Thursday, international crude oil prices fell sharply, and US soybean oil oscillated at a high level [6]. - The price of Malaysian palm oil declined. At the beginning of the week, a collective plunge in commodities led to panic selling by long - position holders. Although supported by rising surrounding oils and the possible decline in January inventory, it still oscillated within a narrow lower range due to falling international crude oil prices and inventory pressure [6]. - Domestic oils dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of about 3%. Rapeseed oil led the decline due to increased supply pressure after the entry of Australian rapeseed into the crushing process. Subsequently, Dalian soybean oil and Dalian palm oil followed the downward trend. In the following days, the domestic oil market oscillated around the lowest point on Monday [6]. 3.1.2 Recent International Oil Information - In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 14.9% - 17.9%. The production in South Malaysia decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, and the estimated production in Malaysia decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons [10]. - Analysts expect the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January to drop to 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% from the end of December. The production in January is estimated to be 1.62 million tons, a 11.5% decrease from December, and exports are estimated to be 1.42 million tons, a 7.6% increase from December [11]. - Indonesia will ban the export of palm oil waste, aiming to ensure domestic demand and promote energy self - sufficiency [11]. - The US IRS issued the 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule, with a 60 - day public comment period and a hearing scheduled for May 28, 2026. The policy is applicable until December 31, 2029 [12]. - As of December 31, 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.179 billion pounds, a 0.7% increase from the end of November and a 29.2% increase from the end of December 2024, but lower than market expectations [13]. - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol - blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 but has to postpone the plan due to limited ethanol supply [13]. - From February 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the same period last month [13]. 3.1.3 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease, and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease [29]. - Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5,100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; the edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease, and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; the rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease, and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [29]. 3.1.4 Oil Basis Analysis - The report presents the basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and different contract months, showing the basis trends over time [34][37][41]. 3.1.5 Oil - to - Oil Futures Spread Relationship - This week, the overall oil price trend was soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded [46]. 3.1.6 Oil Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil slightly declined, while the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil had limited fluctuations [49]. 3.2 Part 2: Future Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - The report presents the seasonal indices of domestic and international soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal, showing their price trends and seasonal characteristics throughout the year [54][56][59]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Level (Main Contracts)**: For soybean oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined; for palm oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bullish; for rapeseed oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all intertwined [61]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, geopolitical risks are high, and international crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. If the price of international crude oil stays above $60 per barrel, it will boost biodiesel production. The MPOB and USDA reports are due next week, and the market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern. Domestically, the oil market is weaker than the international market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot sales have stagnated, and the futures market mainly follows the international oil market. Capital is leaving the market before the festival, and the market may find support at the lower end of the range, waiting for the guidance of the two key reports [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Canola Oil**: Global and Canadian canola supply - demand is relatively loose, constraining prices. However, improved China - Canada trade relations and US biofuel policies support the market. Domestically, canola oil is in a de - stocking mode, but supply pressure may increase. The price is affected by canola purchase news, with increased market volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: High expectations of a South American soybean harvest and early Brazilian soybean harvest pressure international soybean prices. But US - China trade talks and strong US soybean crushing support the market. Domestically, supply pressure may increase, and the canola meal trend is weaker than soybean meal, remaining in a weak trend [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Canola Oil**: This week, the canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 9,144 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan/ton from the previous week. Future prices are affected by global and domestic supply - demand factors [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, the canola meal futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trend is influenced by international soybean market and domestic supply expectations [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market Price Movement**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 280,449 lots, down 23,482 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 932,849 lots, up 18,486 lots from last week [16]. - **Top Twenty Net Positions**: This week, the top twenty net positions of canola oil futures changed from net long to net short (- 14,217), and the net short positions of canola meal futures increased to - 259,365 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 625 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [28][29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,920 yuan/ton, down from last week, with a basis of + 776 yuan/ton. The spot price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,500 yuan/ton, slightly down, with a basis of + 261 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 54 yuan/ton, and that of canola meal was - 47 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [47]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 05 contract ratio of canola oil to canola meal was 4.084, and the average spot price ratio was 3.92 [50]. - **Canola - Soybean Oil and Canola - Palm Oil Spread**: The 05 contract spread of canola - soybean oil was 1,090 yuan/ton, and that of canola - palm oil was 118 yuan/ton, with little change this week [60]. - **Soybean - Canola Meal Spread**: The 05 contract spread of soybean - canola meal was 496 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 580 yuan/ton as of Thursday [66]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Rapeseed - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory and Import Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 218,000 tons, up 98,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes in February, March, and April 2026 were 120,000 tons, 170,000 tons, and 230,000 tons respectively [70]. - **Supply - Side: Import Pressing Profit Change**: As of February 5, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 851 yuan/ton [74]. - **Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 5th week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 350 tons, up from 0 tons last week, with an operating rate of 0.82% [78]. - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In December 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% and a month - on - month increase of 53,600 tons [82]. 3.3.2. Canola Oil - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%. In December 2025, the canola oil import volume was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% and a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [86]. - **Demand - Side: Edible Vegetable Oil Consumption and Production**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,4000 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan [90]. - **Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 66,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [94]. 3.3.3. Canola Meal - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 1,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100% [98]. - **Supply - Side: Import Volume Change**: In December 2025, the canola meal import volume was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% and a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons [102]. - **Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [106]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 6, this week, the canola meal futures price fluctuated and closed lower, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.63%, down 1.67% from last week, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 5, 2026 - **Report Source**: Baocheng Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be strong, and the reference view is also strong. [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the US soybean market has improved, leading to a strong rebound in futures prices. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak. After the pre - holiday stocking by downstream users, the demand for soybean meal has declined, resulting in inventory accumulation. The high operating rate of oil mills has alleviated the expected shortage of soybean supply. The losses in the livestock farming sector further suppress the demand for soybean meal. At the end of the stocking period, terminal transactions have decreased, and the spot market is weak. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased, and the oil mills' production has been steadily increasing, so the supply pressure remains high. The short - term price of soybean meal will rebound following the US soybean futures prices, but the rebound amplitude will be restricted by domestic industrial chain pressure. [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The core driver of the oil market comes from the proposed 45Z biofuel tax credit rule issued by the US Treasury Department, which allows the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials, marginally benefiting the consumption of US soybean oil and strengthening the market's optimistic expectations for biofuel policies. Coupled with the increase in international oil prices due to geopolitical situations, the overnight CBOT soybean oil futures rose strongly, driving the overall domestic oil market higher. However, domestic fundamentals restrict the upward movement. Palm oil is supported by the expected improvement in Malaysia's supply - demand situation in January, but the high domestic inventory and light spot trading limit its upward space. In the short term, the palm oil market is mainly affected by sentiment and capital, with futures prices moderately strong. [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6] - **Core Logic**: It is supported by the cost of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. [6]

Group 1 - CBOT soybean futures rose due to the U.S. Treasury's release of new biofuel tax credit guidelines, with March soybean contracts settling at $10.65-3/4 per bushel [1] - March soybean meal contracts fell by $2.6, settling at $291.90 per short ton, while March soybean oil contracts increased by 1.29 cents, settling at 54.49 cents per pound [1] - The Dalian soybean meal futures market continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 2723 yuan, down 4 yuan, amid increased trading volume and open interest [1] Group 2 - Domestic soybean meal spot prices decreased by 10 yuan per ton, influenced by the U.S. Treasury's proposed rules for biofuel producers and strong U.S. soybean export and crushing data [2] - Brazil's soybean growing season is expected to end next month with record-high yield forecasts, leading to a projected production exceeding 181 million tons [2] - The slow sales pace of farmers is noted, with an estimated 30% of soybean sales for the 2025/26 season, down from 39.6% the previous year [2] Group 3 - The Dalian corn futures market saw the main contract close at 2271 yuan, up 4 yuan, with reduced open interest and trading volume [3] - CBOT corn futures also rose, influenced by the same biofuel tax credit guidelines, with March corn contracts settling at $4.28-1/2 per bushel [4][6] - Domestic corn prices showed slight adjustments, with procurement prices in regions like Heilongjiang and Jilin being lowered, reflecting a weakening market sentiment [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the trends of soymeal and soybeans. The price of CBOT soybeans rose due to the introduction of biofuel tax - credit policies, and the market is still studying the new guidance on 45Z clean - fuel production tax credits. The U.S. reduced tariffs on Indian products, and India agreed to purchase over $500 billion of U.S. products [1][3]. - The trend intensity of soymeal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0, indicating the daily - trading main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2605 closed at 4384 yuan/ton during the day session (+11, +0.25%), and 4388 yuan/ton at night (-18, -0.41%); DCE soymeal 2605 closed at 2727 yuan/ton during the day session (-29, -1.05%), and 2728 yuan/ton at night (-8, -0.29%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1066.75 cents/bushel (+6.75, +0.64%); CBOT soymeal 03 closed at 292.1 dollars/short - ton (-2.2, -0.75%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soymeal (43%) was 3040 - 3120 yuan/ton, with different price premiums over futures contracts in different months. In East China, prices in different regions and time periods also had corresponding premiums and fluctuations. In South China, similar price - premium patterns were observed [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 8.7 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 12.11 million tons two trading days ago. The inventory was 89.95 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared with 88.81 million tons two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 3, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, ending a three - day losing streak. The rise was due to the subsiding of the commodity - market selling wave and the U.S. Treasury's release of new guidance on biofuel tax credits. The 45Z proposed rule aims to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels, and only raw materials from the U.S., Mexico, and Canada are eligible, with the credit extended to 2029 [3]. - The U.S. reduced tariffs on Indian products from 25% to 18%, and India agreed to purchase over $500 billion of U.S. energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other products [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury issued proposed rules for biofuel producers to obtain tax credits, which was welcomed by the biofuel trade organization but some issues remain unanswered [1] - Malaysian palm oil export data from different institutions showed different trends in January 2026, with production also showing a decline [1] - India's palm oil imports in January reached a four - month high, with a significant increase, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports decreased [1] Summary by Related Content Biofuel Policy - The US Treasury released proposed rules on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can get a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon transportation fuels, including aviation fuel. The "45Z" plan under the Inflation Reduction Act was revised in the Great America Act last year, allowing the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials and adjusting the calculation method of land - use intensity. The plan was welcomed by the biofuel trade organization, but some questions remained unanswered [1] Malaysian Palm Oil - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January 2026 were 944,885 tons, a 5.58% decrease from December 2025. AmSpec data showed an increase of 14.89% to 1,375,718 tons. SPPOMA data indicated a 13.08% decline in production, a 13.78% drop in fresh fruit bunch yield, and a 0.16% increase in oil extraction rate [1] Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - Indian palm oil imports in January soared 51% to 766,000 tons, a four - month high, while soybean oil imports plunged 45% to 280,000 tons (the lowest since June 2024) and sunflower oil imports dropped 23% to 269,000 tons. Total edible vegetable oil imports decreased 3.5% to 1.32 million tons. It is expected that palm oil imports in February will further increase [1] Price and Basis Data - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from January 28 - February 3, 2026, in different regions were provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2] - Multiple basis charts were presented, including soybean meal (January, September, May basis in Jiangsu), rapeseed meal (January, May, September basis in Guangdong), soybean oil (January, September, May basis in Zhangjiagang), palm oil (January, May, September basis in Guangzhou), and rapeseed oil (January, May, September basis in East China) [3][4][5] Price Spread Data - Various seasonal price spread charts were provided, including spreads between different contracts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, as well as spreads between different types of oilseeds and oils such as soybean - rapeseed meal, soybean - palm oil, and rapeseed - soybean oil [4]

Group 1: Core Views on Oils - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventory. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 increased by 5.5% - 7.5% month - on - month, and June exports surged 35% year - on - year to 1.85 million tons. However, domestic July crude palm oil inventory remained at 2.05 million tons, with a 0.5% month - on - month increase. Attention should be paid to export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show an intensified internal - external divergence. The US Clean Energy Spending Act is expected to increase annual soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons, supporting the CBOT soybean oil. But in China, July's first - half imported soybean arrivals were about 4.5 million tons (9 million tons expected for the whole month), and soybean oil commercial inventory reached about 1.05 million tons as of July 15, increasing by 40,000 tons weekly. Key variables are US policy implementation progress and North American soybean - growing area weather [3]. - Rapeseed oil fundamentals maintain a pattern of high inventory and weak consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory is above 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of over 85%. Downstream dealer purchases decreased by 15% month - on - month. Policy support is limited, and long - term supply contraction expectations have not materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [4]. Group 2: Oils Price and Spread - The table shows the month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads of oils, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc., with corresponding prices and daily changes [5]. - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices are presented, including prices of palm oil 01, 05, 09, BMD palm oil, etc., along with their changes [8]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices are provided, including prices of soybean oil 01, 05, 09, CBOT soybean oil, etc., and their changes [13]. Group 3: Oilseeds Situation - For imported soybeans, due to the appreciation of the Brazilian exchange rate and the weakening of the US soybean market, Brazilian premium quotes are rising, and there is a lack of effective buying profit in the fourth - quarter buying cycle. July arrivals are 11.5 million tons, August 11 million tons, and September 10 million tons. The fourth - quarter supply gap depends on Sino - US relations [17]. - For domestic soybean meal, supply - side pressure suppresses the spot price. With sufficient soybean raw materials, oil mill operating rates are rising, and supply exceeds demand. Demand - side physical inventory is mainly in middle - stream traders, so the basis spot price is expected to be under pressure [17]. - For rapeseed meal, inventory reduction is slow, and downstream addition ratios lack cost - effectiveness. Market reaction to Sino - Canadian meeting news is lackluster, and its market trend follows soybean meal, with a weak outlook [17]. Group 4: Oilseeds Futures Price and Spread - The table shows the closing prices, daily changes, and change rates of oilseed futures, including soybean meal 01, 05, 09 and rapeseed meal 01, 05, 09 [18]. - The table presents the spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc., along with their prices and daily changes [21].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventories. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 increased by 5.1% - 5.5% MoM, and Indonesia's low - price palm oil continues to attract Asian buyers. However, domestic palm oil inventory reached 251.2 million tons as of July 10, suppressing price increases. Monitor Malaysia's export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show a growing divergence between international and domestic markets. The US House passed the Clean Energy Spending Act, which may increase soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons if implemented. But in China, high supply from large soybean arrivals and high - level crushing, along with low consumption in summer, limit price increases. Key factors are US policy implementation and North American weather [4]. - Rapeseed oil maintains a pattern of high inventory and low consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East - China rapeseed oil inventory is above 65 million tons, and consumption is weak. Policy support from import tariffs has limited impact. Monitor inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [5]. - For imported soybeans, third - quarter supply is abundant, with 11.5 million tons arriving in July, 11 million tons in August, and 9.5 million tons in September. In the fourth quarter, the supply gap depends on Sino - US relations. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure suppresses the spot market, and rapeseed meal follows soybean meal with a weak outlook [16]. Group 2: Oil Futures Price Information Palm Oil - Palm oil 01: 8648 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; Palm oil 05: 8438 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; Palm oil 09: 8682 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; BMD palm oil主力: 4137 ringgit/ton, down 0.22% [8]. Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 01: 7966 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; Soybean oil 05: 7626 yuan/ton, unchanged; Soybean oil 09: 7986 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; CBOT soybean oil主力: 53.49 cents/pound, up 0.41% [12]. Oil Spreads - P 1 - 5: 196 yuan/ton, down 20; Y - P 01: - 694 yuan/ton, up 36; etc. [6]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price Information Soybean Meal - Soybean meal 01: 3015, up 22 (0.74%); Soybean meal 05: 2704, unchanged; Soybean meal 09: 2976, up 22 (0.74%) [17]. Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal 01: 2323, up 7 (0.3%); Rapeseed meal 05: 2311, up 2 (0.09%); Rapeseed meal 09: 2633, up 22 (0.84%) [17]. Spreads and Basis - M01 - 05: 311, up 22; RM01 - 05: 12, up 5; etc. [19].