市场普遍预计，日本央行将在12月19日结束的为期两天的会议上提高利率。目前，该行正致力于应对日 元的长期疲软以及日益顽固的国内通胀。 路透社对分析师的调查显示，日本央行预计将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%。此次加息将是日本央行自 2025年初加息25个基点以来的首次行动，预计将使日本的贷款利率达到30年来的最高点。 近几个月来，一系列具有粘性的通胀数据推高了加息预期，日本央行近期也发出信号，表示将考虑在12 月的会议上加息。作为植田和男让日本经济摆脱数十年超宽松政策计划的一部分，日本央行预计还将释 放更多潜在加息和政策收紧的信号。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 日本央行还必须考虑日本首相高市早苗增加政府支出和放松财政条件的计划，尽管投资者对政府增加支 出的余地表示怀疑。 在周五做出决定之前，日本将公布11月的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，预计该数据将显示物价压力依 然存在。日本央行此前已承认，通胀回升将引发更多的货币紧缩行动。 澳新银行（ANZ）分析师预计，日本央行将在12月加息，再下一次加息将在2026年4月，届时央行将掌 握更多关于日本工资增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must maintain a loose monetary policy and proceed with interest rate hikes very gradually due to global trade uncertainties impacting economic outlook [2][3] Economic Performance - Japan's economy has performed better than expected this year, supported by strong consumption and exports, along with a trade agreement with the United States that alleviated some uncertainties [2] - The BOJ raised the key interest rate to 0.5% in January, citing proximity to achieving the 2% inflation target, but the need for caution remains due to potential impacts from U.S. tariffs [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of wage growth and whether consumption can stabilize inflation near the BOJ's 2% target [2] - The BOJ's policy committee is increasingly concerned about rising inflation pressures, as indicated by two members proposing an interest rate hike in September, although it was not approved [3] Political Uncertainty - Political instability is exacerbating risks to Japan's fragile economy, highlighted by the recent setbacks faced by the ruling party's new leader in her bid to become Japan's first female prime minister [4] - The ruling party's loss in the July Senate elections, driven by public dissatisfaction with rising inflation, has led to proposals from both ruling and opposition parties to increase spending to alleviate economic pressures [4] Fiscal Policy Recommendations - Japan must develop a fiscal consolidation plan given its substantial public debt, ensuring that all spending measures are temporary and targeted at low-income households [4] - Proposals such as VAT reductions or blanket subsidies are deemed unfavorable at this stage, as they would significantly increase the deficit burden [4]