在中期调整方面，特朗普政府需要采取更加严厉的财经措施，例如精简政府开支，借此降低财政赤字。 然而，这背后则隐藏着更深的社会矛盾和党派斗争。美国民众对资源分配的争夺加剧，面对高达1.3万 亿美元的财政赤字，如何平衡社会福利与财政可持续发展，将是特朗普政府必须面临的艰巨挑战。 当前，美国正站在一个极其复杂的十字路口，面临着美债危机、国际关系紧张、以及应对全球经济挑战 的多重压力。正如2月16日农历除夕前夕，美国国务卿鲁比奥所言，"农历新年是亲友团聚、怀念过往、 满怀希望与决心展望来年机遇的时刻"，但在这表面的欢乐之下，却是一片暗流涌动。 根据美国财政部的数据，2025年，全球央行持有的美债数量同比下降12%。其中日本作为最大持有国之 一，正因为政治和经济因素大幅减持，其单月减持规模屡次突破300亿美元。更令人担忧的是，中国已 连续16个月减持美债，其持仓量降至2009年以来的新低，低于8000亿美元。同时，印度和沙特等新兴市 场国家也采取了类似的策略，降低对美债的配置比例。这样的变化不仅反映出投资者对美债的信心动 摇，还可能为全球金融市场埋下隐患。 然而，美债的抛售并未阻止黄金的暴涨趋势。2025年，全球央行购买 ...

针对迪特瓦气旋冲击，他表示，根据联合国、世界银行及亚洲开发银行评估，灾害造成约41亿美元 损失，其中2026年重建需求约16.2亿美元。相关支出已全部纳入2026年预算，并通过独立预算科目体 现，未偏离既定财政整顿路径。政府获得IMF约2.06亿美元紧急融资，并整合多边与双边援助资源，同 时强调此次冲击未对债务收益率产生实质性影响。 （原标题：斯里兰卡向国际主权债券投资者重申：锁定IMF目标与改革路径，债务可持续性稳步改善） 斯里兰卡《每日金融》2月12日报道，斯财政部常秘哈沙纳·苏里亚佩鲁马（Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma）在面向国际主权债券（ISB）持有人的投资者电话会议上表示，政府将严格遵守第17轮 国际货币基金组织（IMF）项目下的各项指标和结构性改革承诺，确保中期债务可持续性目标不发生偏 离。他强调，财政整顿仍以既定的初级盈余目标为锚，到2032年实现债务占GDP比重降至95%的路径不 变，年度总体融资需求亦将控制在项目框架内。 在国有企业改革方面，他明确表示，对锡兰电力局（CEB）的拆分改革"不会回头"，将作为旗舰性 改革持续推进，并继续实行成本反映型电价机制，以消除准财政亏 ...

2月13日，美国财长贝森特在 CNBC 节目中发表讲话。 贝森特建议谈及美联储提名人沃什，称参议院银行委员会也调查美联储相关项目。推进参议院听证会非 常重要。 "我们认为已就听证会达成一致。任何关心美联储的人都希望看到政策的连续性。" 他指出，"债券市场如此平静，是因为我们正在整顿财政。2025年GDP增长率很有可能达到3%。通胀可 能在2026年年中回到2%左右。" 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 贝森特谈就业问题，称这是特朗普重归私有化经济计划的一部分。谈及美国赤字称，他更相信市场，而 不是国会预算办公室（CBO）的预测。 他称自己刚刚与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔通过话，并补充道"我们将看看关税是否会有所'缩窄'"。他 还表示，任何最终决定都将由总统做出。 持续更新中…… ...

This was something that was one big stumbling block, the sentiment in the capital market and also for the Indian rupee, as you pointed out. So I'm not surprised that the reaction is very positive in both these markets. And I mean, at the end of the day, it is the world's biggest consumption market, $21 trillion of GDP.And therefore, to be able to have access to it is important and for all labour intensive products and to I think the China plus one strategy that many Western companies and multinationals were ...

Group 1 - The core message from Goldman Sachs is that while the dominance of the US dollar is weakening, it is not collapsing yet, with a projected slow decline influenced by global growth and balanced asset returns [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will experience a "slow downward process," driven by strong global growth, despite the dollar being overvalued by approximately 15% according to their GSDEER model [1][2] - The report highlights that the most significant risks to the dollar's value may arise from structural changes in capital markets rather than traditional macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for the euro is that it is nearing "fair value" against the dollar, with further appreciation likely driven by the dollar's weakness rather than explosive growth in the Eurozone [3] - The British pound is identified as a "laggard" among G10 currencies, facing structural overvaluation and lacking fundamental support due to pressures from fiscal tightening and a weak domestic economic outlook [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of England will implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market expects, which will negatively impact the pound's performance compared to its European counterparts [3] Group 3 - In Asia, Goldman Sachs sees opportunities in low-yield currencies closely tied to the technology supply chain, such as the South Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, which are expected to outperform higher-yield currencies like the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso [5] - The South Korean won is particularly favored due to expected inflows from the inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index and the resumption of foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [5] - For emerging markets, Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on currencies with improving fundamentals and attractive valuations, such as the Brazilian real and Colombian peso, which offer significant carry trade potential despite political uncertainties [6]

智通财经APP获悉，法国议会一个委员会未能就2026年预算达成一致，导致对完整财政计划的讨论被推 迟到新的一年，这加剧了人们对法国政府如何控制赤字的担忧。 据悉，当地时间周五上午，由七名国民议会议员和七名参议员组成的委员会迅速放弃了协调预算草案的 努力，因为两院和不同的政治团体之间仍然存在严重分歧。法国总理勒科尔尼(Sebastien Lecornu)表 示，他很遗憾一些议员缺乏达成协议的意愿。他在社交平台上发文称："议会无法在今年年底前为法国 通过一份预算。我对此深表遗憾，我们的同胞不应承受由此带来的后果。" 尽管如此，法国不会面临美国式的政府停摆风险，因为它可以通过紧急立法来维持关键支出和税收。法 国政府本周早些时候警告称，目前已获批准的财政法案内容只会将2026年的财政赤字降至占经济产出的 5.3%，低于今年的5.4%。在最初的计划中，勒科尔尼设定的目标是将赤字降至4.7%，但此后他表示赤 字应控制在5%以内。 但与此同时，法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦(Francois Villeroy de Galhau)警告称，如果修复公共财政的计划未 能使明年的赤字占经济产出的比例降至5%以内，法国可能会面临市场负面反应 ...

由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会2026： 预测与战略 · 年度对话暨2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中的中国定 力"。 12月18日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)驻华首席代表Marshall Mills在致辞中表示，全球不确定性已急剧攀 升，且持续走高。这种不确定性一定会保留很长的时间，所以一定要做好应对这些不确定性的准备。他预 计今年和明年两年全球增长仅会小幅放缓。 我非常同意刚才发言嘉宾的一些观点，我的演讲可能不像其他几位演讲那样充满活力，我想分享一下 自己的见解。过去几十年我们看到了令人难以置信的进展，虽然也有没有实现的愿望，考虑到这些进展， 我们面临的挑战看起来是有一些反知觉的，但如今普通人的生活远好于40年或者80年以前。我们研究这些 数据的时候发现潜在的一些深层暗流和一些沮丧，尤其在年轻一代人当中，为了更好的理解这一点。我们 可以看一些例子，以美国为例，年轻人长大以后，收入超过父母的概率持续下降，我的父亲这个月90岁 了，对于我父亲那一代，30岁的时候赚的钱超过他的父母那一代的概率超过90%，而到我这一代，我 ...

Core Viewpoint - Natixis IM Solutions reports that the European Central Bank's conservative interpretation of its symmetric inflation target will continue to limit the impact of recent interest rate cuts on the long end of the yield curve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The strategist attributes this limitation to the expected deficits in Germany and France in 2026, alongside a general lack of fiscal consolidation in the medium term [1] - There is an indication that the European Central Bank is reluctant to acknowledge the crowding-out effect that public spending will have on private demand in the coming years [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Natixis IM Solutions anticipates that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report indicates that the Indian economy is performing well, supported by improving domestic conditions, with a projected growth rate of 6.5% for FY2024-2025 and 7.8% year-on-year GDP growth for Q1 FY2025-2026, despite facing significant short-term risks [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - For FY2025-2026, India's real GDP is expected to grow by 6.6%, with inflation projected to decrease to 2.8% [2] - By FY2026-2027, real GDP growth is anticipated to slow to 6.2%, with inflation rebounding to 4% [2] Trade and External Debt - The report forecasts that merchandise exports will reach $416.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, while imports will amount to $746.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - External debt is projected to rise to $791 billion, accounting for 19.2% of GDP [2] Structural Reforms - The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on September 22, 2025, is expected to simplify the tax structure, stimulate domestic consumption, and mitigate the adverse effects of high tariffs [2] - Continuous structural reforms and fiscal consolidation are deemed crucial for India's economic reform [3] Fiscal Discipline and Revenue Generation - Achieving fiscal deficit targets requires strict fiscal discipline and careful monitoring of the impacts of tax rate reductions [3] - There is a need to increase domestic fiscal revenue to enhance the buffer space for fiscal policy [3] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights significant short-term risks, including potential tightening of financial conditions due to geopolitical fragmentation and unpredictable climate change risks affecting agriculture [3] - The government is urged to continue financial structural reforms and enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate [3] Human Capital and Investment - Strengthening human capital, increasing female labor participation, and optimizing the business environment are essential for sustained economic growth [4] - There is a call for increased R&D investment and innovation to support green economic transformation and sustainable growth [4]

12月1日，日本东京，日本首相高市早苗在一国际投资会议上引用动漫主角台词"把所有钱都投到我这 儿"，以呼吁对日投资。报道称，鉴于当前形势，这番话也存在被错误解读的风险。当日，日本央行行 长强烈暗示将于12月加息，当天日经指数应声下跌近1000点。报道称，日本的财政健康状况已是发达国 家中最为严峻的。此前，面对众多经济问题，高市早苗称将制定新财政目标。此举被指这实质上淡化日 本政府对财政整顿的承诺。 ...