IMF总裁：全球经济展现韧性 不确定性是新常态 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 对于关税问题，格奥尔基耶娃说，从目前来看，关税带来的冲击好于预期，世界已避免陷入针锋相对的 贸易战，但开放程度大幅下降。美国的贸易加权关税税率从4月的23%下降到现在的17.5%，但美国的有 效关税税率目前远高于其他国家。IMF呼吁各国政策制定者遵守贸易规则，共同维护贸易作为经济增长 引擎的作用。 格奥尔基耶娃还说，到2029年，全球公共债务将超过GDP的100%，发达经济体和新兴市场经济体的债 务问题均突出。各个国家，无论富有还是贫穷，都有必要开展财政整顿以削减财政赤字。 IMF和世界银行秋季年会将于10月13日至18日在华盛顿举行。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 中新社华盛顿10月8日电 (记者 沙晗汀)国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁格奥尔基耶娃当地时间8日在华盛顿 发表讲话说，全球经济在面对多重冲击的情况下展现出了韧性，但不确定性是新常态。 格奥尔基耶娃当天在华盛顿米尔肯中心发表了IMF秋季年会揭幕讲话。格奥尔基耶娃表示，当前世界经 济"比此前担心的要好，但比需要的要差"。IMF预计，全球经济增长在今明两年仅略有放缓，所 ...

报告导读： 中国国庆中秋假期期间，海外政经领域波动加剧，美国两党围绕临时拨款法案 和医保补贴争执不下，政府陷入停摆，日本自民党新总裁上任，法国新总理辞职，显示海 外政治波动加大，其本质均是财政等经济问题，巴以谈判举步维艰。国际环境进入新一轮 动荡期，假期期间黄金价格得到持续支撑，再创新高，原油价格震荡下跌。 假期海外大事件梳理： 全球大类资产表现。 假期期间（ 2025.9.30-2025.10.7 ），全球大类资产价格中，大宗商品价格涨跌分化，股票市场多数上涨。 日经 225 上涨 6.72% ， 新兴市场股票指数上涨 2.17% ，发达市场股票指数上涨 0.80% ，标普 500 上涨 0.39% 。大宗商品价格涨跌分化，其中， COMEX 铜上涨 4.38% ，伦 敦金现上涨 3.28% ，标普 - 高盛商品指数上涨 0.46% ， IPE 布油期货下跌 1.98% 。 经济： 美国方面： 经济仍处于边际放缓通道。 2025 年 9 月 Markit 制造业指数为 52.0% ，相较于前值 53.0% ，有所下降； ISM 非制造业 PMI 为 50.0% ，相较于前值 52.0% 大幅下降。 欧洲方面 ...

法国又一位总理离任，令该国本已严峻的经济前景雪上加霜。此次人事变动的直接导火索是政府内阁组 成引发的公开分歧，但根本原因在于，政府始终无法争取到能推动亟需的财政整顿措施落地的议会有效 多数席位。 目前法国预算赤字率居高不下，超过GDP的5%，国债规模也接近GDP的114%。以历史标准衡量，这两 项数据均处于高位，对欧元区"核心成员国"而言更是如此。 塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼（Sébastien Lecornu）出任总理不足一个月便辞职，其对法国国债市场的影响立竿 见影。法国国债收益率无论从绝对水平还是相对欧元区其他国家国债的角度均出现攀升。当前债券市场 已开始为法国计入显著的治理风险溢价。 尤其值得注意的是，法国基准10年期国债收益率目前已超过意大利国债——这种倒挂局面在过去简直难 以想象。这一金融层面的"惩罚"，使得欧元区第二大经济体的国债表现落后于一个过去常被视为欧元 区"边缘经济体"的国家。这不仅是财政失衡的体现，更意味着市场对法国政治体系果断施政能力的信心 丧失。 法国的动荡局势对英国也产生了影响。鉴于英国既非欧元区成员国，也已脱离欧盟，人们或许会倾向于 忽视这种影响，但这将是一个严重的错误。 一个直接影 ...

法国总理勒科尔尼6日突然向总统马克龙递交辞呈，随后得到马克龙批准。勒科尔尼在任仅27天， 成为法兰西第五共和国任期最短的总理，也成为马克龙总统任内下台的第七位总理。 法国再次陷入政治危机。勒科尔尼为何辞职？各方反应如何？马克龙将采取何种措施应对危机？ 马克龙如何应对 勒科尔尼为何辞职 勒科尔尼在辞职后发表的讲话中表示，他一直与各党派及社会各界代表沟通，希望能够在国民议会 层面通过明年的财政预算和社会保障预算。他曾准备向反对党派"妥协"，但反对派"无视"谈判进展，为 了2027年总统选举只顾党派之争，完全不顾国家利益。鉴于目前条件"不具备"，他无法继续担任总理。 社会党等多个左翼党派都表示6日下午召开紧急会议，商量下一步对策和方案。右翼共和党召开高 层会议讨论对策，共和党成员、前总理巴尼耶呼吁各方"保持冷静"，并"为法国人民着想"。 国民联盟主席巴尔代拉呼吁马克龙再次解散国民议会。他说，勒科尔尼作为总理"无疑没有任何回 旋余地"。梅朗雄在社交媒体上发文，呼吁国民议会立即审查由104名议员提出的弹劾马克龙的动议。 勒科尔尼辞职的消息迅速波及金融市场。据法国媒体报道，法国10年期国债收益率6日盘中飙升逾9 个基点， ...

法国股市同样受到冲击。法国巴黎股市CAC40指数开盘下跌2%。相比之下，其他欧洲主要股指相对平 稳。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王佳宁】 新华社巴黎10月6日电（记者崔可欣）法国总理勒科尔尼6日宣布辞职，消息迅速波及金融市场，加剧法 国股市和债市震荡。 法国《回声报》认为，总理辞职使2026年财政预算案的推进再度搁浅，财政整顿前景堪忧。 据法国媒体报道，法国10年期国债收益率6日盘中飙升逾9个基点，突破3.6%，逼近2011年欧债危机期 间的高位。市场人士指出，国债收益率上行意味着投资者对法国债务风险的担忧加深。 今年9月，国际评级机构惠誉以政治动荡持续、预算法案久拖未决、债务水平持续上升为由，将法国长 期外币发行人违约评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"。 ...

法国第一大经济日报《回声报》认为，总理辞职使2026年财政预算案的推进再度搁浅，财政整顿前景愈 发渺茫。法国财政状况已处于高度脆弱之中，截至9月，公共债务规模突破3.4万亿欧元，财政赤字在欧 元区国家中居首。 此前，国际评级机构惠誉已于9月12日将法国长期外币发行人违约评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"，并将评级 展望调整为"稳定"。分析人士认为，在政治不确定性叠加债务高企的背景下，法国市场的波动可能进一 步加剧。 新华财经巴黎10月6日电（记者崔可欣）法国总理勒科尔尼于当地时间6日早间突然宣布辞职，消息震动 政坛并迅速波及金融市场，法国国债和股市遭遇重挫。 据法国媒体报道，6日早间，法国与德国国债利差扩大至88个基点，创下自今年1月以来新高。法国10年 期国债收益率盘中飙升逾9个基点，突破3.6%，逼近2011年欧债危机期间的高位。市场人士指出，国债 收益率上行意味着投资者对法国债务风险的担忧急剧升温，而在债券市场上，收益率攀升与价格下跌形 成反向联动。 股市同样受到打击。巴黎CAC 40指数开盘下跌2%，跌破8000点大关。相比之下，其他主要欧洲股指相 对平稳。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The core issue behind the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][5] - The market is optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term, influenced by Trump's potential nominations for a "dovish" shadow chairman [2][20] - The Federal Reserve can "set" but not "manipulate" policy interest rates, as interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [3][45] Group 2 - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [7] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs [7] - A decrease in the basic fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by 12-35 basis points [5][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to manipulate the yield curve is limited, and the trend of rising yield premiums on U.S. Treasuries is likely to continue [4] - The market tends to price in overly "dovish" expectations during rate hike cycles and overly "hawkish" expectations during rate cut cycles [4] - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" policies is crucial for the Federal Reserve's future rate cut space [5][20]

Group 1 - The recent GST reform in India is the largest since its introduction in 2017, aiming to boost consumption and mitigate the impact of high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian products [1][2] - The new GST rates are set at 5% and 18%, leading to price reductions on various consumer goods, including household items, automobiles, and electronics [1] - The reform is expected to benefit 11 out of 30 major consumption categories, enhancing the purchasing power of the middle class [2] Group 2 - The tourism and hospitality sectors are anticipated to experience significant growth due to the GST changes, with increased booking volumes reported during festive periods [1] - However, the reform may result in a government revenue loss of approximately $5.4 billion, raising concerns about fiscal consolidation and debt reduction efforts [2] - The service sector, particularly IT services, remains a critical area for India's economy, facing potential challenges from proposed US tariffs on outsourced services [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent downgrades of France's credit rating by international rating agencies, reflecting political and economic uncertainties in the country [1][2] - On September 19, Morningstar DBRS downgraded France's long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings from "AA (high)" to "AA" due to challenges in fiscal consolidation and increasing political fragmentation [1] - Fitch Ratings had previously downgraded France's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings from "AA-" to "A+" on September 12, citing the weakening ability of the political system to implement large-scale fiscal adjustments [1] Group 2 - The recent political turmoil in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister Borne and the subsequent appointment of Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, has left the fiscal budget plan for 2026 in limbo [2] - France is projected to record the largest fiscal deficit in the Eurozone in 2024, with significant adjustments needed to meet the 2026 budget deficit target of 4.6% of GDP as outlined in the Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan (MTFSP) [2] - The public debt-to-GDP ratio in France rose from 98.2% in 2019 to 114.9% in 2020 due to various shocks, and despite some recovery, it only decreased to 109.8% by 2023 [2] Group 3 - Morningstar DBRS indicated that if the French government fails to address structural fiscal imbalances, a further downgrade of the credit rating may occur [3] - A sustained increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio to 125%, especially with a significant rise in interest burdens, could also lead to a downgrade [3] - Conversely, if the government can structurally improve fiscal conditions and reduce the debt ratio, there is potential for an upgrade in the credit rating [3]

Group 1 - The French central bank predicts a GDP growth rate of 0.7% for this year, slightly up from the previous forecast of 0.6%, but lowers the growth expectations for the next two years to 0.9% and 1.1% from 1% and 1.2% respectively [1][2] - Political instability in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister François Baroin due to a failed budget vote, is causing uncertainty that is suppressing investment and consumption [2][3] - France's public debt is approximately €3.3 trillion, accounting for 113.9% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to nearly 120% of GDP by 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts and credit rating agencies are increasingly concerned about France's economic outlook, with the central bank noting that the risks to growth expectations are skewed to the downside [3][4] - Fitch downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ due to political chaos and doubts about fiscal consolidation capabilities, which could raise future financing costs for the government [3][4] - Standard & Poor's has placed France's rating outlook on "negative," indicating potential further downgrades if budget deficits do not improve significantly [3][4]