21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 美联储独立性遭遇"前所未有"的考验。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上公开了一封致美联储 理事莉萨·库克的信件，宣布即刻将其免职。信中援引美国宪法第二条及经修订的《1913年联邦储备 法》，特朗普表示已认定存在足够理由撤销库克职务。 信中提及一份8月15日由联邦住房金融局提交的刑事移交材料，认为库克涉嫌在抵押贷款文件中作出虚 假陈述。例如，她先在密歇根州一份文件上声明该物业为其主要住所，随后又在佐治亚州另一份文件中 作出同样声明。特朗普称此举"不可想象"，质疑其诚信与作为金融监管者的胜任力。 2022年库克被美国前总统拜登提名、经国会批准出任美联储理事，任期至2038年，是美联储首位非洲裔 女性理事。 这或将是美联储111年历史中，首次有总统解雇美联储理事。美联储陷入巨大危机中，最终会如何收 场？ 前所未有的干涉 这也给后续事件埋下了伏笔。据新华社报道，特朗普以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇库克，这一被媒 体称为"史无前例"的做法引发争议，库克回应称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履职。 库克还通过律师阿贝·洛厄尔回应称，特朗普将其解雇缺乏 ...

Group 1 - The core issue behind the current "political crisis" surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [3][4] - Market expectations for the next "shadow Fed chair" candidates are led by Chris Waller (26.6%), Kevin Hassett (13.7%), and Kevin Warsh (7.9%), all of whom are perceived as having dovish monetary policy stances [10][16] - The Federal Reserve's ability to "set" but not "manipulate" policy rates is emphasized, with long-term interest rates being more influenced by macroeconomic factors than short-term rates [5][47] Group 2 - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" is suggested as necessary for sustainable fiscal reform, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit could lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9] - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is described as being in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [9][19] - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to influence the yield curve is limited, with market pricing often being overly dovish during rate hike cycles and overly hawkish during rate cut cycles [6][41]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Political Crisis - The Federal Reserve is at the center of a political crisis influenced by Trump's efforts to reshape the deep government, raising questions about its ability to manipulate interest rates[2] - As of August 9, the top three candidates for the "shadow Fed chair" are Waller (26.6%), Hassett (13.7%), and Warsh (7.9%) based on market expectations[2][3] - Trump's potential influence includes nominating a "dovish" shadow chair and possibly replacing Powell if he does not remain[3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Manipulation - The Fed can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, as rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors[4] - The neutral interest rate in the U.S. has risen from around 0% to approximately 1-1.5%, indicating that the Fed's rate cuts may have a terminal point around 300-350 basis points[4] - By July 2025, the Fed's target for the federal funds rate should be between 3.8% and 6.3%, with the current rate at 4.3%, suggesting no restrictive policy at present[4] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Monetary Coordination - The Fed's ability to cut rates depends more on fiscal consolidation than on board changes, as government deleveraging can lower the neutral rate and support the Fed's anti-inflation efforts[5] - Historically, a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lead to a 12-35 basis point decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield[5] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs and implications[5]

Core Viewpoint - Finland has experienced its first credit rating downgrade in nearly a decade due to the government's failure to control the rising debt levels, with Fitch lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating from AA+ to AA, the lowest among the three major rating agencies [1] Group 1: Debt Situation - The Finnish government debt level remains high and continues to rise [1] - Fitch projects a lack of sufficient fiscal consolidation measures in the medium term to stabilize the debt scale [1] Group 2: Government Response - The government, led by Prime Minister Orpo, is attempting to rectify the long-standing fiscal issues characterized by persistent deficits since 2009 [1] - The current goal is to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2027 [1] Group 3: Economic Structure - Finland's economic challenges stem from an incomplete transition of its export-oriented industrial structure [1] - Multiple successive governments have failed to effectively reduce spending to address the fiscal gap caused by declining revenues from core industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's indicates that the results of the Japanese Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [1] Group 1: Election Impact - The ruling coalition led by Shigeru Ishiba may need to negotiate with other parties to legislate, increasing the likelihood of implementing fiscal expansion policies to meet the demands of opposition parties [1] - The government may increase spending to alleviate cost-of-living pressures due to public concerns over inflation [1] Group 2: Tax Policy and Credit Rating - The ruling coalition still holds sufficient power to avoid significant adjustments to consumption tax policies [1] - The demands from opposition parties vary widely, from temporary limited tax cuts to complete abolition, with the impact of consumption tax adjustments on credit ratings depending on their scope, magnitude, and sustainability [1] Group 3: Fiscal Risks - Moody's has previously warned that if fiscal deficits continue to widen, leading to a further deterioration of the already high debt burden, it may trigger a risk of rating downgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth slowing down in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve is likely to be cautious regarding interest rate cuts, which may occur later and be smaller than market expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Rising Inflation - The impact of tariffs is not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported significantly in the first quarter to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventory levels. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will need to import again, potentially passing on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - Stricter immigration policies have led to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may drive up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [4]. - Moderate fiscal policies are expected to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [5]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the 2017 temporary personal income tax cuts permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade. This level of fiscal stimulus is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [8]. - The U.S. government debt has reached about 100% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable. The buyer structure of U.S. debt has shifted, with foreign central banks reducing their purchases, leading to increased volatility in bond yields [8]. - Long-term solutions to the debt issue may require fiscal consolidation, which could involve spending cuts, tax increases, or new tax sources. Alternatively, forced purchases of more government bonds or quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Outside the U.S., other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [9]. - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit will constrain its performance [9]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates could lead to rising inflation, causing foreign investors to lose confidence in U.S. assets, which may result in higher long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar [11]. - The possibility of appointing a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" by Trump could create additional uncertainty in monetary policy, complicating the current Fed Chair Powell's role and the FOMC's decision-making process [11].

Group 1 - The French government aims to save €43.8 billion by 2026 and reduce the budget deficit to 4.6% of GDP as part of a long-term fiscal consolidation plan [1][2] - The plan includes a "stop debt" initiative to gradually balance the debt over four years, targeting a deficit of 2.8% of GDP by 2029, in line with EU regulations [1][2] - The government plans to cut 3,000 public sector jobs, with 1,000 to 1,500 positions being eliminated from ineffective state institutions [1][2] Group 2 - In social spending, 2026 is designated as a "blank year," freezing annual increases in social welfare and pensions to save approximately €7 billion [2] - The government intends to halve the increase in healthcare spending to €5 billion, with changes to patient drug reimbursement policies [2] - The current public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 114% as of Q1 2025, with a projected deficit of 5.8% of GDP for 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from ING analysts indicates that if French Prime Minister Borne fails to implement spending cuts to reduce the budget deficit, the euro may face downward pressure [1] Group 1: Spending Cuts and Budget Deficit - Prime Minister Borne is expected to announce a plan to cut spending by €40 billion in an upcoming fiscal consolidation plan [1] - The failure of the spending cut plan could negatively impact local fixed income products and the foreign exchange market, similar to recent events in the UK [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Recent policy reversals by the UK government regarding welfare reforms have raised new concerns about its fiscal situation, leading to significant declines in UK government bonds and the pound [1]

Core Insights - The UK government has reversed its plan to cut welfare benefits, highlighting the significant challenges faced in fiscal consolidation [1] - The success of the broader plan to control public spending remains uncertain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that Pakistan's budget reflects progress in fiscal consolidation [1] Group 1 - The budget demonstrates improvements in revenue collection and expenditure management [1] - Fiscal measures are aimed at reducing the budget deficit and enhancing economic stability [1] - The government is focusing on structural reforms to support long-term fiscal health [1]