财经网站Investinglive分析师Justin Low表示，日元此次价格波动与日本财务省的"汇率测试"具有相似特征，类似于在2024年和2022年出现的类似情况。上一 次"汇率测试"是在2024年7月中旬，就在日本当局出手买入日元之前；再上一次是在2022年9月14日，而那是在实际干预行动发生的一周前。 汇率核查是指日本财务省通过日本央行的交易室联系各银行，询问当前的汇率和市场状况，通常涉及美元兑日元的汇率。过去，此类检查之后就是直接采取 干预措施。"汇率检查"将警示投机者在更果断的举措出台前不要一味押注日元贬值。 Low指出，"汇率测试"的目的是在当局实际采取干预措施之前，给市场留出一些预警时间。因此，对于日元的走势，他已经有了大致的预期，唯一的问题是 干预行动会在何时展开。 周五，在日本央行维持利率不变后，日元在日本央行行长植田和男举行新闻发布会期间继续走弱，但盘中突然拉升，引发交易员警惕东京方面可能出手干 预，以阻止日元跌至或接近多年低点。 美元兑日元最低跌至157.33，自日高跌近200点，随后有所反弹，当前近乎抹去日内全部涨幅。该汇率此前一度上涨约0.5%。美元指数则盘中跳水。目前尚 不清楚这 ...

随着日本大选临近，对于财政纪律崩溃的担忧正在日本债券市场迅速蔓延。面对可能出现的巨额无资金支持的减税承诺，投资者正表现出极度的警惕。 据新华社报道，日本首相高市早苗19日在记者会上表示，将于1月23日解散众议院，并于2月8日举行众议院选举。高市早苗表示，将着手准备取消对食品征 收两年的消费税，消费税减免的资金问题仍在考虑中。可能会削减补贴，并将修改整体预算。将通过降低日本债务与GDP比率来确保日本财政状况的可持续 性。 分析认为，取消对食品征收两年消费税的政策若实施，预计每年将产生约5万亿日元的减税规模。但令市场感到不安的是，日本政府尚未披露填补这一巨额 财政缺口的具体资金来源。 受此影响，日本国债市场正面临严峻的抛售压力。本周二，财政扩张恐慌叠加20年期国债拍卖需求疲软，日本国债遭遇历史性抛售，日本30年期国债收益率 上升26.5个基点至3.875%；日本40年期国债收益率上升27个基点至4.215%续创历史新高。 与此同时，市场对日本央行（BOJ）政策正常化的预期并未消退。目前市场定价显示，日本央行在4月份加息的概率已升至61%。尽管Naka Matsuzawa认为 形成市场共识（即概率超过70%）的条件 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行将于1月23日公布最新利率决议。摩根大通发布研报称，日本央行在下周 的政策会议上采取行动的可能性相当低，相反，市场注意力将集中在其《经济与物价形势展望报告》和 日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上的讲话。小摩表示，将从中寻找有关下次加息条件的线索。该行仍预 计日本央行下次加息将在4月进行，届时包括中小企业在内的春季薪资谈判结果将趋于明朗。 小摩表示，植田和男在记者会上很可能面临许多关于日本央行如何回应高市早苗政府"负责任、积极主 动的财政政策"、以及日元贬值和日本国债收益率上升的问题。 日本央行可能将市场对其终端利率预期在近期的上升视为积极进展。然而，尽管终端利率定价走高，日 元却持续疲软，这表明日本央行可能落后于日益扩张的财政政策，而追赶可能并不容易——这正是市场 担忧的一个根源。 到目前为止，出于政策正常化对金融体系影响的担忧，日本央行一直对连续加息持否定态度。日本政府 方面仍然不情愿提高政策利率的立场也给日本央行带来压力。近期的日元贬值是否会促使这一立场发生 转变，是一个需要关注的关键点。 小摩指出，日本央行直到去年10月仍持谨慎观点，强烈警告美国关税给经济带来的下行风险。但这一观 ...

外汇分析师Linh Tran认为，当前美元兑日元的强势可能反映了市场信心的结构性转变，而非短期技术性 反弹。分析称，美元受青睐是因为美国经济仍具备足够韧性，且交易员认为美联储是具有充足公信力的 央行，能够在必要时维持限制性货币政策。与此同时，日元持续受增长担忧拖累，因投资者认为日本央 行的政策正常化进程缓慢而谨慎。尽管该货币对可能延续上行趋势，但政策风险正在上升。若日元贬速 急剧加快，东京方面或采取干预行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global interest rate market is transitioning from a phase of synchronized monetary easing among major economies to a phase of differentiated normalization, leading to varying stages of monetary policy across countries [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Candriam suggests that duration should primarily be used as a hedging tool, focusing on relative value and curve positioning rather than solely on duration risk [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to stabilize interest rates at neutral levels, which may result in a mild steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1] - The European Central Bank is advised to proceed cautiously and maintain interest rates at current levels for the time being [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to pursue policy normalization through interest rate hikes [1]

Core Insights - Japan's monetary base is projected to decline for the first time in 18 years in 2025, indicating a gradual exit from large-scale policy support by the central bank [1] - The average balance of Japan's monetary base in 2025 is expected to decrease by 4.9% year-on-year, marking the first decline since 2007 [1] - As of December 2025, the average monetary base is estimated at 594.19 trillion yen (approximately 3.79 trillion USD), a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, falling below the 600 trillion yen threshold for the first time since September 2020 [1] - Analysts anticipate that the downward trend in Japan's monetary base will continue as the central bank reduces bond purchases and advances interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is steadily approaching its 2% price stability target and is open to further interest rate hikes when conditions allow [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The formation of a virtuous cycle of wage growth is occurring, reducing the likelihood of Japan returning to a "zero-normal" state where wages and prices remain unchanged [1] - The labor market is tightening, leading to significant changes in corporate wage-setting and pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's policy stance remains consistent following the interest rate increase to 0.75% on December 19 [1] - Future adjustments to monetary policy will depend on economic and price trends aligning with the central bank's expectations [1] - A gradual normalization of policy is aimed at achieving the inflation target smoothly while supporting long-term economic growth and business confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate are driven by the Bank of Japan's substantial interest rate hike and the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan, creating a new dynamic in the currency market [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% on December 19, marking the largest increase since the start of policy normalization in 2024, driven by inflation exceeding the 2% target for 43 consecutive months [2][3] - Despite the rate hike, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains significant, with a 2-year yield spread of 370 basis points, limiting the potential for a sustained appreciation of the yen [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, with an annualized decline of 2.3%, highlighting the fragility of the economic recovery and raising concerns that further rate hikes could dampen consumption and investment [3] - Japan's government debt has surpassed 236% of GDP, and rising interest rates could double the government's interest payments in the coming years, raising sustainability concerns for the yen [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The combination of Japan's "tight monetary + loose fiscal" policy mismatch is a key variable increasing uncertainty in the exchange rate [3] - The normalization of the Bank of Japan's policy has weakened the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal, as concerns over fiscal risks and the profitability of carry trades have emerged [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Predictions - UBS predicts that the USD/JPY exchange rate may decline to 136 by June 2026, but short-term volatility is expected due to uncertainties in Japanese politics [4] - The current trading range for USD/JPY is likely to remain between 154 and 158, with key resistance at 157 and support at 154.35, as the market awaits clearer policy direction [4] - Future movements in the exchange rate will depend on the alignment of interest rate paths between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, as well as the evolution of fiscal risks in Japan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike to 0.75% has not led to a significant recovery in the forex market, with the yen weakening again despite the increase, indicating that the market had already priced in this policy adjustment [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised the short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years [1][2]. - The statement from the Bank of Japan emphasized a cautious approach, indicating that future rate hikes would depend on economic, inflation, and financial conditions [2]. - The current policy rate is still below the neutral range, suggesting that rapid convergence is unlikely in the short term [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Japan's November CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, showing a slight decline from previous values, while core CPI remained at 3% [3]. - The core inflation measure excluding fresh food and energy decreased from 3.1% to 3%, indicating a marginal slowdown in inflation, which may affect aggressive rate hike expectations [3]. - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 2% post-rate hike, the highest since the late 1990s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability given Japan's public debt nearing 250% of GDP [3]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - In the U.S., November CPI and core CPI were both below market expectations, reinforcing signals of cooling inflation and leading to increased expectations for future Fed rate cuts [4]. - Despite the positive inflation signals, the dollar index has rebounded, indicating a complex interplay of investor sentiment and demand for the dollar [4]. - The trading dynamics between USD/JPY are influenced by the Bank of Japan's gradual policy normalization and fluctuating Fed rate cut expectations, with limited upside for the yen in the absence of clearer signals from the Bank of Japan [4][5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The forex market is currently in a transitional phase with mixed policy signals, leading to structural trading rather than a clear trend [5]. - The lack of sustained driving forces for the yen and the resilience of the dollar suggest that market participants are focused on risk management amid ongoing volatility [5].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to approximately 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, as part of its ongoing normalization of monetary policy [1][2] - The central bank's decision to increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate target by 0.25 percentage points from the previous 0.5% reflects a commitment to adjust monetary easing in response to economic and price outlooks [1][2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2 - Market expectations for the interest rate hike had been building, with attention now shifting to the pace of future increases and the ultimate level of the policy rate in this cycle [2] - The decision to raise rates comes despite initial skepticism regarding the central bank's ability to normalize policy under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration, which had previously favored monetary easing [3] - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar, trading around 156, while the Nikkei 225 index continued to rise, reflecting market confidence in the central bank's actions [3]