Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% and confirmed that quantitative tightening (QT) will end on December 1, while restoring policy flexibility before the end of the year [1][3] - Market expectations indicate a 68.6% probability of another rate cut in December, with a 31.4% chance of maintaining the current rate [4] - Powell's cautious statements have led to a more measured market response, reducing expectations for aggressive easing [3][6] Group 2 - The October rate cut provides the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to pause if data stabilizes, while the end of QT on December 1 will slightly increase liquidity, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts [6] - Key economic data releases in November, including CPI, employment, and GDP, will be critical for decision-making [6] - The dollar remains strong despite the rate cut, as the move was anticipated and the Fed's credibility remains intact [8][12] Group 3 - The dollar index is currently stabilizing within the fair value gap (FVG) range of 98.63–99.35, maintaining a bullish outlook as long as it holds above 98.60 [10][14] - A breakout above the FVG range could target levels of 99.35–99.70, while a drop below 98.63 would shift the short-term trend to bearish [12][14] - The overall strategy of the Federal Reserve is seen as proactive rather than reactive, with a focus on maintaining vigilance against inflation while restoring policy flexibility [14]

昨日周一我们认为，黄金在上周刷新历史新高后，涨势暂时遇阻，维持高位震荡，不过市场对美联储降息的预期居高不 下，依旧为金价提供重要支撑，黄金整体趋势向上，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注3626美元，其次3613和3600美 元，上方压力关注3657美元，进一步走强关注上周历史高点3673美元。 从之后的走势看，欧盘盘中，黄金维持震荡，金价多次向上试探，在3646美元附近遇阻，美盘开盘后，黄金向上突破，在 回踩3646美元后继续走强，最高涨至3685美元，再次刷新历史新高，遇阻后金价回落3674美元，在前历史高点位置企稳。 周二亚盘开盘，黄金走势继续上扬，再创历史新高至3689美元，遇阻后再次回踩前历史高点3674美元企稳，欧盘开盘后黄 金继续上涨，刷新历史新高至3698美元，表现十分强势。总体来看，黄金继续冲高，维持上升趋势，符合我们整体看涨的 预期。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，黄金在上周涨势遇阻，展开高位震荡，金价经过短期调整后，于本周继续上涨，再创 历史新高，市场对美联储降息的预期居高不下，成为推动金价持续冲高的重要原因。8月公布的美国非农数据表现十分糟 糕，这导致美联储主席鲍威尔，在之后 ...